Trade and Labour Markets: Vertical and Regional Differentiation in Italy

The labour market misfortunes of the less skilled and rapid growth of international trade in manufactured goods with less advanced countries are linked by the paradoxical observation that trade theorists are in the forefront of those denying the importance of trade in income distribution. This paper analyses this conclusion by stressing the importance of vertical differentiation of trade flows and regional differentiation of skills in order to identify labour market effects of trade integration. Vertical and regional differentiation in trade and labour markets are analysed for a country, Italy, where these two elements seem to play a crucial role. The results show a likely displacement effect on unskilled labour due to trade flows with less advanced countries. Given the characteristics of Italian trade and labour markets, a stronger trade‐induced displacement effect on demand for unskilled labour takes place in the North of the country. Thus the vertical differentiation in Italian intra‐industry trade is a warning against understating the effect of trade on labour markets if product heterogeneity is not adequately considered. The regional differentiation of skill intensity is another warning against understating the effect of trade on labour markets whenever cross‐sectoral effects and the change in relative specialization are not adequately considered.     

THE INTERNATIONAL DIMENSION OF PRODUCTIVITY AND DEMAND SHOCKS IN THE US ECONOMY

This paper analyzes the cross‐country effects of productivity and demand disturbances in the United States identified with sign restrictions based on standard theory. Productivity gains in US manufacturing increase US consumption and investment vis‐à‐vis foreign countries, resulting in a trade deficit and higher international prices of US goods, despite the rise in their supply. Financial adjustment works via a higher global value of US equities, real dollar appreciation, and an expansion of US gross foreign liabilities as well as assets. Positive demand shocks to US manufacturing also increase investment and cause a real dollar appreciation, but have limited effects on the trade balance and net foreign assets. Our findings emphasize the importance for macroeconomic interdependence of endogenous fluctuations in aggregate demand across countries in response to business cycle shocks.     

全球价值链视角下我国对外依存程度分析

嵌入全球价值链可促进我国经济发展，却也使我国更加依赖于外国市场，从而增加了国家风险。本文以全球价值链为视角，基于世界投入产出模型构建了增加值对外依存程度的测算方法，对当前的不同测算方法进行了比较，提出了传统贸易、全球价值链的简单和复杂参与下的对外依存程度。最后，利用2000-2014年的世界投入产出表进行测算。结果表明：我国的对外依存程度呈现先升后降的态势；传统贸易下对外依存程度的变化是我国对外依存度变化的主要原因。这意味着：平衡全球价值链嵌入和国家风险的关键是提高全球价值链的参与程度。本文的方法和结论可以为我国政府管理国家风险和贸易谈判提供支持。     

Aspirations,Segregation, and Occupational Choice

This paper examines the steady states of an overlapping generations economy with a given distribution of household locations over a one‐dimensional interval. Parents decide whether or not to educate their children. Educational decisions are affected by location: There are local complementarities in investment incentives stemming from aspirations formation, learning spillovers, or local public goods. At the same time, economy‐wide wages endogenously adjust to bring factor supplies into line with demand. The model therefore combines local social interaction with global market interaction. The paper studies steady‐state configurations of skill acquisition, both with and without segregation. The model is used to compare macroeconomic and welfare properties of segregated and unsegregated steady states. (JEL: D31, O15, D85)     

Task Trade Between Similar Countries

We propose a theory of task trade between countries that have similar relative factor endowments and technological capabilities, but may differ in size. Firms produce differentiated goods by performing a continuum of tasks, each of which generates local spillovers. Tasks can be performed at home or abroad, but offshoring entails costs that vary by task. In equilibrium, the tasks with the highest offshoring costs may not be traded. Among the remainder, those with the relatively higher offshoring costs are performed in the country that has the higher wage and the higher aggregate output. We discuss the relationship between equilibrium wages, equilibrium outputs, and relative country size.     

EXPORT‐PLATFORM FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT

A poorly understood empirical phenomenon is export‐platform affiliate production (EP), particularly for sale in third countries rather than in the parent or host countries. We develop a three‐region model, with two identical large, high‐cost countries (collectively called North) and a small, low‐cost country (South). The large countries each have one firm. Our theory section analyzes the conditions under which one or both of these firms uses the South to produce for (a) export back to the parent (home‐country EP), (b) export to the other large country (third‐country EP), or (c) export to both (global EP). A free‐trade area between one of the northern countries and South can lead to the insider northern firm choosing home or global EP and the outsider firm choosing third‐country EP for a range of parameter values. Our empirical section shows the relevance of this outcome. Foreign manufacturing affiliates of US multinationals inside North America concentrate on home‐country EP while affiliates inside Europe concentrate on third‐country EP. (JEL: F12, F23)     

全球价值链贸易网络分析与国际风险传导应对

在全球化生产不断演进的背景下，参与国际分工各国在共享分工福利的同时，如何避免 外部世界的冲击?关于这一问题，若从一国所处的与其他国家的价值链贸易网络的视角给予 考察，或许能够得到一些答案.本文基于2000年~2014年世界投入产出数据，研究发现全球价值链贸易网络具有“小世界现象”和“无标度特性”等复杂网络性质，且整个网络的演化是一个循序渐进的过程.接着指出，在全球生产网络分析框架下，一国可通过强化其在全球价值链贸易网络中的集约性和广延性特征，实现自身重要程度的提高，弱化来自外部波动的影响.最后，从进口(投入)和出口(产出)两个方向对上述结论给予验证，即一国可通过增加上下游贸易对象数量并降低贸易强度分布集中度，做广做均全球外贸发展布局，弱化内外部之间风险互相传导的冲击，稳健全球价值链贸易网络.     

An Elementary Theory of Comparative Advantage

Comparative advantage, whether driven by technology or factor endowment, is at the core of neoclassical trade theory. Using tools from the mathematics of complementarity, this paper offers a simple yet unifying perspective on the fundamental forces that shape comparative advantage. The main results characterize sufficient conditions on factor productivity and factor supply to predict patterns of international specialization in a multifactor generalization of the Ricardian model which we refer to as an “elementary neoclassical economy.” These conditions, which hold for an arbitrarily large number of countries, goods, and factors, generalize and extend many results from the previous trade literature. They also offer new insights about the joint effects of technology and factor endowments on international specialization.     

The Dynamics of International Competitiveness: First Results from an Analysis at the Industry Level

The paper uses the key role of technology as starting point in determining trade flows and international competitiveness at industry and country level as a growing number of theoretical contributions and empirical verifications have recognized over the past decade. The paper uses a set of new data on trade, production, technology and costs at industry level for a certain number of countries to relate trade performance to a set of different economic and technological factors across countries and industrial sectors since the early 1970s. A single model of trade specialization is applied to the data in order to establish the impact of innovation, costs and country specific factors to overall performance, both in the short run and the long run, via a panel data analysis. Model specification follows the cointegration approach, where a long-run cointegrating vector is estimated along with the dynamic adjustment towards long-run equilibrium. The paper presents some preliminary results, related to a certain number of different industrial sectors for the major industrialized countries.     

Effects of Remanufacturable Product Design on Market Segmentation and the Environment

Despite documented benefits of remanufacturing, many manufacturers have yet to embrace the idea of tapping into remanufactured‐goods markets. In this article, we explore this dichotomy and analyze the effect of remanufacturable product design on market segmentation and product and trade‐in prices by studying a two‐stage profit‐maximization problem in which a price‐setting manufacturer can choose whether or not to open a remanufactured‐goods market for its product. Our results suggest that it is optimal for a manufacturer to design a remanufacturable product when the value‐added from remanufacturing is relatively high but product durability is relatively low and innovation is nominal. In addition, we find that entering a remanufactured‐goods market in and of itself does not necessarily translate into environmental friendliness. On the one hand, the optimal trade‐in program could result in low return and/or remanufacturing rates. On the other hand, a low price for remanufactured products could attract higher demand and thereby potentially result in more damage to the environment. Meanwhile, external restrictions imposed on total greenhouse gas emissions draw criticism in their own right because they risk stifling growth or reducing overall consumer welfare. Given these trade‐offs, we therefore develop and compare several measures of environmental efficiency and conclude that emissions per revenue can serve as the best proxy for emissions as a metric for measuring overall environmental stewardship.     

The Role of Local Context in the Cross‐border Acquisitions by Emerging Economy Multinational Enterprises

This paper explores the role of local context in cross‐border acquisitions by emerging economy multinational enterprises (EMNEs). It argues that the importance of local context has remained despite the increased global integration of the world economy. Hypotheses are tested using data on Indian acquisitions hosted in 70 countries over an eight‐year period. Results, which are consistent across number and value of cross‐border acquisitions, show that the local context in host countries offers contrasting benefits. Emerging economy multinational enterprises exploited these benefits by embedding in host countries through acquisitions. The acquisition strategy is conventional in the motives underpinning internationalization, but novel in its geographical clustering of host countries, and idiosyncratic owing to the EMNE's ability to draw on home country embeddedness. The paper develops theoretical implications and extends the concept of embeddedness, treating it as a series of internalization or quasi‐internalization decisions across a variety of local contexts by multinationals.     

Financial Market Globalization,Symmetry‐Breaking,and Endogenous Inequality of Nations

This paper investigates the effects of financial market globalization on the inequality of nations. The world economy consists of inherently identical countries, which differ only in their levels of capital stock. Each country is represented by the standard overlapping generations model, modified only to incorporate credit market imperfection. An integration of financial markets affects the set of stable steady states, as it changes the balance between the equalizing force of the diminishing returns technology and the unequalizing force of the wealth‐dependent borrowing constraint. The model is tractable enough to allow for a complete characterization of the stable steady states. In the absence of the international financial market, the world economy has a unique steady state, which is symmetric and stable. In the presence of the international financial market, symmetry‐breaking occurs under some conditions. That is, the symmetric steady state loses its stability and stable asymmetric steady states come to exist. In the stable asymmetric steady states, the world economy is endogenously divided into the rich and poor countries; the borrowing constraints are binding in the poor but not in the rich; the world output is smaller, the rich are richer and the poor are poorer in any of the stable asymmetric steady states than in the (unstable) symmetric steady state.     

Customer‐Base Concentration and Inventory Efficiencies: Evidence from the Manufacturing Sector

What is the link between customer‐base concentration and inventory efficiencies in the manufacturing sector? Using hand‐collected data from 10‐K Filings, we find that manufacturers with more concentrated customer bases hold fewer inventories for less time and are less likely to end up with excess inventories, as indicated by the lower likelihood and magnitude of inventory write‐downs and reversals. Using disaggregated inventory disclosures, we find that inventory efficiencies primarily flow through the finished goods inventory account, while raw material efficiencies are offset by higher work‐in‐process holdings and longer work‐in‐process cycles. In additional analysis, we document a valuation premium for more concentrated manufacturers after controlling for other firm characteristics, including default risk and cost of capital estimates. We conclude that investors trade off the costs and benefits of relationships with a limited number of major customers and, on balance, consider customer‐base concentration as a net positive for firm valuation. Overall, our study adds to interdisciplinary research in accounting and operations management by shedding new light on the relevance of major customer disclosures for fundamental analysis and valuation in the manufacturing sector.     

Technical Note – Pricing Below Cost Under Exchange‐Rate Risk

Pricing below cost is often classified as “dumping” in international trade and as “predatory pricing” in local markets. It is legally prohibited from practice because of earlier findings that it leads to predatory behavior by either eliminating competition or stealing market share. This study shows that a stochastic exchange rate can create incentives for a profit‐minded monopoly firm to set price below marginal cost. Our result departs from earlier findings because the optimal pricing decision is based on a rational behavior that does not exhibit any malicious intent against the competition to be considered as violating anti‐trust laws. The finding is a robust result, because our analysis demonstrates that this behavior occurs under various settings such as when the firm (i) is risk‐averse, (ii) can postpone prices until after exchange rates are realized, (iii) is capable of manufacturing in multiple countries, and (iv) operates under demand uncertainty in addition to the random exchange rate.     

INSTITUTION‐INDUCED PRODUCTIVITY DIFFERENCES AND PATTERNS OF INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS

This paper studies theoretically how the cross‐country differences in the institutional quality (IQ) of domestic credit markets shape the patterns of international capital flows when such IQ differences also cause productivity differences across countries. IQ affects productivity by changing productivity–agency‐cost trade‐offs across heterogeneous investment projects. Such institution‐induced productivity differences are shown to have effects on the investment and capital flows that are opposite of exogenous productivity differences. This implies that the overall effect of IQ could generate U‐shaped responses of the investment and capital flows. Among other things, this means that capital could flow from middle‐income countries to both low‐income and high‐income countries, and that, starting from a very low IQ, a country could experience both a growth and a current account surplus after a successful institutional reform. More generally, the results here provide some cautions when interpreting the empirical evidence on the role of productivity differences and institutional differences on capital flows. It also calls into question the validity of treating the degree of financial frictions as a proxy for the quality of financial institutions, as commonly done in the literature.     

The Determinants of Child Labour: The Role of Primary Product Specialization

Abstract. The paper tests predictions of a traditional intra‐household bargaining model which, under reasonable assumptions, shows that lack of bargaining power in the value chain significantly reduces the capacity for obtaining benefits from increased product demand arising from trade liberalization and therefore is positively associated with child labour. Cross‐sectional and panel negative binomial estimates in a sample of emerging countries support this hypothesis. They show that proxies of domestic workers’ bargaining power in the international division of labour (such as the share of primary product exports) are significantly related to child labour, net of the effect of traditional controls such as parental income, quality of education, international aid, and trade liberalization. The positive impact of the share of primary product exports on child labour outlines a potential paradox. The paradox suggests that trade liberalization does not always have straightforward positive effects on social indicators and that its short‐run effects on income distribution and distribution of skills and market power across countries need to be carefully evaluated.     

A Quantitative Assessment of the Risk for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Introduction into Spain via Legal Trade of Live Poultry

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is considered one of the most important diseases of poultry. During the last 9 years, HPAI epidemics have been reported in Asia, the Americas, Africa, and in 18 countries of the European Union (EU). For that reason, it is possible that the risk for HPAI virus (HPAIV) introduction into Spain may have recently increased. Because of the EU free‐trade policy and because legal trade of live poultry was considered an important route for HPAI spread in certain regions of the world, there are fears that Spain may become HPAIV‐infected as a consequence of the legal introduction of live poultry. However, no quantitative assessment of the risk for HPAIV introduction into Spain or into any other EU member state via the trade of poultry has been published in the peer‐reviewed literature. This article presents the results of the first quantitative assessment of the risk for HPAIV introduction into a free country via legal trade of live poultry, along with estimates of the geographical variation of the risk and of the relative contribution of exporting countries and susceptible poultry species to the risk. The annual mean risk for HPAI introduction into Spain was estimated to be as low as 1.36 × 10⁻³, suggesting that under prevailing conditions, introduction of HPAIV into Spain through the trade of live poultry is unlikely to occur. Moreover, these results support the hypothesis that legal trade of live poultry does not impose a significant risk for the spread of HPAI into EU member states.     

Pool‐Point Distribution of Zero‐Inventory Products

We study zero‐inventory production‐distribution systems under pool‐point delivery. The zero‐inventory production and distribution paradigm is supported in a variety of industries in which a product cannot be inventoried because of its short shelf life. The advantages of pool‐point (or hub‐and‐spoke) distribution, explored extensively in the literature, include the efficient use of transportation resources and effective day‐to‐day management of operations. The setting of our analysis is as follows: A production facility (plant) with a finite production rate distributes its single product, which cannot be inventoried, to several pool points. Each pool point may require multiple truckloads to satisfy its customers' demand. A third‐party logistics provider then transports the product to individual customers surrounding each pool point. The production rate can be increased up to a certain limit by incurring additional cost. The delivery of the product is done by identical trucks, each having limited capacity and non‐negligible traveling time between the plant and the pool points. Our objective is to coordinate the production and transportation operations so that the total cost of production and distribution is minimized, while respecting the product lifetime and the delivery capacity constraints. This study attempts to develop intuition into zero‐inventory production‐distribution systems under pool‐point delivery by considering several variants of the above setting. These include multiple trucks, a modifiable production rate, and alternative objectives. Using a combination of theoretical analysis and computational experiments, we gain insights into optimizing the total cost of a production‐delivery plan by understanding the trade‐off between production and transportation.     

When Do Multinational Companies Consider Corporate Social Responsibility? A Multi‐country Study in Sub‐Saharan Africa

While African countries are becoming more and more relevant as host countries for suppliers of multinational companies little is known about corporate social responsibility (CSR) in this region. To fill this gap, the present article explores CSR considerations of foreign affiliates of multinational companies when choosing local African suppliers. The article suggests a model of three types of determinants, namely firm characteristics, exports, and intra‐trade. Analyses of a large‐scale and quite unique firm level data for more than 2,000 foreign owned firms in 19 sub‐Saharan African countries demonstrate that firms importing intermediates from their parent company abroad are more likely to implement CSR. Similarly, CSR plays a larger role for affiliates that export to developed countries. Different determinants affect environmental and social CSR activities.     

A Dynamic Equilibrium Model of International Portfolio Holdings

This paper develops a continuous‐time equilibrium model of a two‐country exchange economy with heterogeneous agents and nontraded goods. Nontraded goods play the role of state variables that shift the marginal utility of traded goods. This affects prices and generates dynamic hedging demands that explain the well documented home bias puzzle in international equity portfolios. When calibrated to both consumption and production data, the model is able to generate significative home bias in equity portfolios. A new methodology, based on Malliavin calculus, is presented to solve for the portfolio policies along the equilibrium path. This methodology allows one to reduce the determination of equilibrium portfolio holdings to the solution of a linear algebraic system, rather than a partial differential equation.