BANK NETWORKS AND MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION

This paper argues that the existence of bank networks is important for banks' reactions to monetary policy. For the example of Germany, it is found that small banks access the interbank market indirectly through the large head institutions of their respective network organizations. The interbank flows within these networks allow smaller banks to manage their funds in a fashion that helps them in keeping their loan portfolio with nonbanks relatively unaffected after a monetary contraction. This implies that tests for a bank‐lending channel in countries with comparable bank networks should not rely on a size criterion only, and explains why several recent contributions have found a prominent role for banks' liquidity positions. (JEL: C32, E52, G21)     

THE LENDER OF LAST RESORT: A TWENTY‐FIRST CENTURY APPROACH

The classical Bagehot conception of a Lender of Last Resort (LOLR) that lends to illiquid banks has been criticized on two grounds: On the one hand, the distinction between insolvency and illiquidity is not clear‐cut; on the other, a fully collateralized repo market allows central banks to provide the adequate aggregate amount of liquidity and leave to the banks the responsibility of lending uncollateralized. The object of this paper is to analyze these issues rigorously by providing a framework in which liquidity shocks cannot be distinguished from solvency ones and then asking whether there is a need for a LOLR and how it should operate in the absence of systemic threats. Determining the optimal LOLR policy requires a careful modeling of the structure of the interbank market and of the closure policy. In our setup, the results depend upon the existence of moral hazard. If the main source of moral hazard is the banks' lack of incentives to screen loans, then the LOLR may have to intervene to improve the efficiency of an unsecured interbank market in crisis periods; if instead the main source of moral hazard is loan monitoring, then the interbank market should be secured and the LOLR should never intervene. (JEL: E58, 628)     

The Effect of Timing on Jump Bidding in Ascending Auctions

We investigate the role of timing in ascending auctions under the premise that time is a valuable resource. Traditional models of the English auction ignore timing issues by assuming that the auction occurs instantaneously. However, when auctions are slow, as Internet auctions used for procurement often are, there are significant opportunity or monitoring costs to bidders, and the choice of the size of the jump bid becomes a strategic decision. We study the choice in the experimental laboratory by systematically varying the opportunity costs associated with fast bidding. When time is more valuable bidders respond by choosing larger jump bids. Surprisingly, the economic performance of the auction is not significantly affected. We develop a simple model of ascending auctions with impatient bidders that provides insights into the effect jump bids have on auction performance.     

Precautionary Bidding in Auctions

We analyze bidding behavior in auctions when risk‐averse buyers bid for a good whose value is risky. We show that when the risk in the valuations increases, DARA bidders will reduce their bids by more than the appropriate increase in the risk premium. Ceteris paribus, buyers will be better off bidding for a more risky object in first price, second price, and English auctions with affiliated common (interdependent) values. This “precautionary bidding” effect arises because the expected marginal utility of income increases with risk, so buyers are reluctant to bid so highly. We also show that precautionary bidding behavior can make DARA bidders prefer bidding in a common values setting to bidding in a private values one when risk‐neutral or CARA bidders would be indifferent. Thus the potential for a “winner's curse” can be a blessing for rational DARA bidders.     

On the Existence of Pure Strategy Monotone Equilibria in Asymmetric First‐Price Auctions

We establish the existence of pure strategy equilibria in monotone bidding functions in first‐price auctions with asymmetric bidders, interdependent values, and affiliated one‐dimensional signals. By extending a monotonicity result due to Milgrom and Weber (1982), we show that single crossing can fail only when ties occur at winning bids or when bids are individually irrational. We avoid these problems by considering limits of ever finer finite bid sets such that no two bidders have a common serious bid, and by recalling that single crossing is needed only at individually rational bids. Two examples suggest that our results cannot be extended to multidimensional signals or to second‐price auctions.     

Common Value Auctions with Insider Information

Bidding is studied in first-price common value auctions where an insider is better informed than other bidders (outsiders) about the value of the item. With inexperienced bidders, having an insider does not materially reduce the severity of the winner's curse compared to auctions with a symmetric information structure (SIS). In contrast, super-experienced bidders, who have largely overcome the winner's curse, satisfy the comparative static predictions of equilibrium bidding theory: (i) average seller's revenue is larger with an insider than in SIS auctions, (ii) insiders make substantially greater profits, conditional on winning, than outsiders, and (iii) insiders increase their bids in response to more rivals. Further, changes in insiders' bids are consistent with directional learning theory (Selten and Buchta (1994)).     

Too Negative to Take Risks? The Effect of the CEO's Emotional Traits on Firm Risk

Except for some recent survey and experimental studies, strategic management research has tended to neglect the influence of emotions on managers' strategic choices. This paper analyses the influence of the stable, long‐term emotional traits of CEOs on an actual business outcome: risk taking. The hypotheses are tested on a sample of 51 Spanish banks and savings banks. Our results show that CEO affective traits influence banks' risk taking. Specifically, our analyses show that managers' negative affective traits are related to lower risk taking as reflected in a lower variability in performance, a lower level of credit risk and a less risky composition of the loan portfolios of the banks they manage. Positive affective traits do not seem to influence the level of risk. These findings partially support ‘affect congruency and generalization’ arguments, and show the need to consider the role of affects when analysing CEOs' strategic choices.     

Transparency in Buyer‐Determined Auctions: Should Quality be Private or Public?

We study buyer‐determined procurement auctions where both price and non‐price characteristics of bidders matter for being awarded a contract. Although, in scoring auctions bidders perfectly know how price and non‐price attributes determine the awarding of the contract, this remains uncertain in buyer‐determined auctions where the buyer is free to choose once all bids have been submitted. We analyze the impact of information bidders have with respect to the buyer's awarding decision. As we show theoretically whether it is in the buyer's interest to conceal the impact of non‐price characteristics depends on how important the quality aspects of the procured good are to the buyer: The more important quality aspects are, the more interesting concealment becomes. In a counterfactual analysis using data from a large European procurement platform, we analyze the reduction of non‐price information available to the bidders. Confirming our hypothesis, for auction categories where bidders’ non‐price characteristics strongly influence buyers’ decisions concealment of non‐price information leads to an increase in buyers’ surplus of up to 15% due to higher competitive pressure and lower bids. Conversely, for categories where bidders’ non‐price characteristics are of little importance concealment of non‐price information leads to a decrease in buyers’ surplus of up to 6%.     

An Experimental Investigation of Procurement Auctions with Asymmetric Sellers

Electronic reverse auctions are a commonly used procurement mechanism. Research to date has focused on suppliers who are ex ante symmetric in that their costs are drawn from a common distribution. However, in many cases, a seller's range of potential costs depends on their own operations, location, or economies of scale and scope. Thus, understanding how different bidder types impact auction outcomes is key when designing an auction. This study reports the results of the first controlled laboratory experiment designed to compare prices between first‐price and second‐price procurement auctions for homogeneous goods when seller cost types are asymmetric and the number of bidders varies. The results indicate that first‐price auctions generate lower prices regardless of market composition. The results also reveal that first‐price auctions are at least weakly more efficient than second‐price auctions despite the theoretical prediction that the reverse should hold in asymmetric auctions. Post hoc analysis of individual bidders' behavior in first‐price auctions revealed evidence that bidders systematically underbid when their cost realizations were close to the lower bound. Furthermore, bidders adjust their behavior based on the type of the other bidders in the market in a manner inconsistent with theory. Consequently, adding a third bidder to a two‐bidder market is not advantageous to the buyer unless that third bidder is a low‐cost type.     

ON THE STABILITY OF DIFFERENT FINANCIAL SYSTEMS

An economy in which deposit‐taking banks of a Diamond and Dybvig style and a financial market coexist is modeled in a simple framework closely related to Diamond (1997). Solely depending on the fraction of naïve households who cannot efficiently invest directly in the corporate sector, two different types of financial systems emerge. With the fraction comparatively low, the evolving financial system can be interpreted as market‐oriented, whereas a high fraction brings about a bank‐dominated financial system. In market‐oriented systems, banks only provide naïve households with access to efficient investments; in bank‐dominated systems, banks' deposit contracts also offer some degree of liquidity insurance. Consequently, compared to market‐oriented financial systems, the household sector in bank‐dominated financial systems holds a larger portfolio fraction in deposits and a smaller part in direct investments. Analyzing the resilience of the different financial systems to various types of shocks shows that moderately bank‐dominated (or hybrid) financial systems are particularly fragile, because only in these systems do fire sales of assets by distressed banks cause a deterioration in asset prices that also precipitates other banks into crisis. (JEL: D52, E44, G10, G21)     

Toward a Strategic Foundation for Rational Expectations Equilibrium

A step toward a strategic foundation for rational expectations equilibrium is taken by considering a double auction with n buyers and m sellers with interdependent values and affiliated private information. If there are sufficiently many buyers and sellers, and their bids are restricted to a sufficiently fine discrete set of prices, then, generically, there is an equilibrium in nondecreasing bidding functions that is arbitrarily close to the unique fully revealing rational expectations equilibrium of the limit market with unrestricted bids and a continuum of agents. In particular, the large double‐auction equilibrium is almost efficient and almost fully aggregates the agents' information.     

基于核心-边缘网络的中国银行风险传染

采用核心-边缘网络刻画我国银行间市场的网络结构,结合各银行同业往来资产和负债信息构建风险传染模型,对单个银行倒闭以及资产价格泡沫破灭两种情况下的传染过程进行模拟.研究发现,近年来我国银行系统的抗风险能力不断增强,但在所有银行中中国银行的风险传染程度最严重,应该加强对系统重要性银行的重视.同时,防范银行危机的关键在于控制资产价格泡沫,在合理的资产价格水平下,外界冲击难以对银行系统的安全性构成威胁.     

An Analysis of Scoring and Buyer‐Determined Procurement Auctions

In procurement auctions, the object for sale is a contract, bidders are suppliers, and the bid taker is a buyer. The suppliers bidding for the contract are usually the current supplier (the incumbent) and a group of potential new suppliers (the entrants). As the buyer has an ongoing relationship with the incumbent, he needs to adjust the bids of the entrants to include non‐price attributes, such as the switching costs. The buyer can run a scoring auction, in which suppliers compete on the adjusted bids or scores, or, he can run a buyer‐determined auction, in which suppliers compete on the price, and the buyer adjusts a certain number of the bids with the non‐price attributes after the auction to determine the winner. Unless the incumbent has a significant cost advantage over the entrants, I find that the scoring auction yields a lower average cost for the buyer, if the non‐price attributes are available. If the non‐price attributes are difficult or expensive to obtain, the buyer could run a buyer‐determined auction adjusting only the lowest price bid.     

基于幂效用函数的多属性英式拍卖研究

以采购问题为背景研究多属性拍卖问题,其中拍卖问题的特点是：（1）包含任意有限个属性;（2）买卖双方的效用函数均具有加性结构,且在除价格以外的单个属性上,买方的效用函数和卖方的成本函数均为一般幂函数形式。首先,设计了一种买方事先公布评分函数而卖方轮流提交投标的多属性英式拍卖机制;其次,在卖方对称的假设下分析了拍卖机制中的最优投标策略,确定了最优投标价格和最优非价格属性值;然后,分析得出了最具成本优势的卖方最终胜出的条件以及最优多属性投标;最后,计算了该拍卖机制中买方的期望收益,并求出了使其期望收益最大化的最优评分函数权重。     

Entry and Exit in OTC Derivatives Markets

We develop a parsimonious model to study the equilibrium and socially optimal decisions of banks to enter, trade in, and possibly exit, an OTC market. Although we endow all banks with the same trading technology, banks' optimal entry and trading decisions endogenously lead to a realistic market structure composed of dealers and customers with distinct trading patterns. We decompose banks' entry incentives into incentives to hedge risk and incentives to make intermediation profits. We show that dealer banks enter more than is socially optimal. In the face of large negative shocks, they may also exit more than is socially optimal when markets are not perfectly resilient.     

基于第二价格预拍的竞标者合谋均衡分析

本文假设合谋竞标者在拍卖之前采用第二价格预拍的合谋机制,求解了第一价格拍卖下的合谋均衡。我们不但考虑了拍卖方对于合谋的最优策略性响应,而且考虑了参与合谋的竞标者与没有参与合谋的竞标者之间的策略性响应,研究表明没有参与合谋的竞标者为了抵消合谋竞标者对于自己的不利影响,在竞价时考虑到合谋的存在会比不存在合谋条件下的竞价更具有进取性,而且拍卖方合理的设定保留价格对于合谋的难易有重要影响。     

Investment in Facility Changeover Flexibility for Early Entry into High‐Tech Markets

A model is introduced to analyze the manufacturing‐marketing interface for a firm in a high‐tech industry that produces a series of high‐volume products with short product life cycles on a single facility. The one‐time strategic decision regarding the firm's investment in changeover flexibility establishes the link between market opportunities and manufacturing capabilities. Specifically, the optimal changeover flexibility decision is determined in the context of the firm's market entry strategy for successive product generations, the changeover cost between generations, and the production efficiency of the facility. Moreover, the dynamic pricing policy for each product generation is obtained as a function of the firm's market entry strategy and manufacturing efficiency. Our findings provide insights linking internal manufacturing capabilities with external market forces for the high‐tech and high‐volume manufacturer of products with short life cycles. We show the impact of manufacturing efficiency and a firm's ability to benefit from volume‐based learning on the dynamic pricing policy for each product generation. The results demonstrate the benefits realized by a firm that works with its manufacturing equipment suppliers to develop more efficient and flexible technology. In addition, we explore how opportunities afforded by pioneer advantage enable a firm operating a less efficient facility to realize long term competitive advantage by deploying an earlier market entry strategy.     

COORDINATION FAILURES AND THE LENDER OF LAST RESORT: WAS BAGEHOT RIGHT AFTER ALL?

The classical doctrine of the Lender of Last Resort (LOLR), elaborated by Bagehot (1873), asserts that the central bank should lend to “illiquid but solvent” banks under certain conditions. Several authors have argued that this view is now obsolete: in modern interbank markets, a solvent bank cannot be illiquid. This paper provides a possible theoretical foundation for rescuing Bagehot's view. Our theory does not rely on the multiplicity of equilibria that arises in classical models of bank runs. We built a model of banks' liquidity crises that possesses a unique Bayesian equilibrium. In this equilibrium, there is a positive probability that a solvent bank cannot find liquidity assistance in the market. We derive policy implications about banking regulation (solvency and liquidity ratios) and interventions of the Lender of Last Resort. Furthermore, we find that public (bailout) and private (bail‐in) involvement are complementary in implementing the incentive efficient solution and that Bagehot's Lender of Last Resort facility must work together with institutions providing prompt corrective action and orderly failure resolution. Finally, we derive similar implications for an International Lender of Last Resort (ILOLR). (JEL: G21, G28)     

Collusion via Resale

The English auction is susceptible to tacit collusion when post‐auction interbidder resale is allowed. We show this by constructing equilibria where, with positive probability, one bidder wins the auction without any competition and divides the spoils by optimally reselling the good to the other bidders. These equilibria interim Pareto‐dominate (among bidders) the standard value‐bidding equilibrium without requiring the bidders to make any commitment on bidding behavior or postbidding spoil division.     

A Framework to Analyze Cash Supply Chains

The Federal Reserve System of the United States is making changes to its cash recirculation policy to reduce depository institutions' (banks') overuse of its cash processing services. These changes will affect operating policies and costs at many institutions having large cash businesses and, in turn, impact cash transportation and logistics providers. This study provides the framework to study the cash supply chain structure and analyzes it as a closed‐loop supply chain. Additionally, it describes the cash flow management system used by banks in the U.S.