Managing Inventory with Cash Register Information: Sales Recorded but Not Demands

Inventory inaccuracy is common in many businesses. While retailers employ cash registers to enter incoming orders and outgoing sales, inaccuracy arises because they do not record invisible demand such as spoilage, damage, pilferage, or returns. This setting results in incomplete inventory and demand information. An important inventory control problem therefore is to maximize the total expected discounted profit under this setting. Allowing for dependence between demand and invisible demand, we obtain the associated dynamic programming equation with an infinite‐dimensional state space, and reduce it to a simpler form by employing the concept of unnormalized probability. We develop an analytical upper bound on the optimal profit as well as an iterative algorithm for an approximate solution of the problem. We compare profits of the iterative solution and the myopic solution, and then to the upper bound. We see that the iterative solution performs better than the myopic solution, and significantly so in many cases. Furthermore, it gives a profit not far from the upper bound, and is therefore close to optimal. Using our results, we also discuss meeting inventory service levels.     

Multiple In‐Cycle Transshipments with Positive Delivery Times

We study a centralized inventory sharing system of two retailers that are replenished periodically. Between two replenishments, a unit can be transshipped to a stocked‐out retailer from the other. It arrives a transshipment time later, during which the stocked‐out retailer incurs backorder cost. Without transshipment, backorder cost is incurred until the next replenishment. Since the transshipment time is shorter than the time between two replenishments, transshipments can reduce the backorder cost at the stocked‐out retailer and the holding costs at the other retailer. The system is directed by a centralized inventory manager, who minimizes the long‐run average cost consisting of replenishment, holding, backorder, and transshipment costs. The transshipment policy is characterized by hold‐back inventory levels, which are nonincreasing in the remaining time until the next replenishment. The transshipment policy differs from those in the literature because we allow for multiple transshipments between replenishments, positive transshipment times, and backorder costs. We also discuss the challenges associated with positive replenishment time and develop upper and lower bounds of average cost in this case. Bounds are numerically shown to have an average gap of 1.1%. A heuristic solution is based on the upper bound and differs from the optimal cost by at most this gap.     

Inventory Record Inaccuracy,Double Marginalization,and RFID Adoption

Most retailers suffer from substantial discrepancies between inventory quantities recorded in the system and stocks truly available to customers. Promising full inventory transparency, radio frequency identification (RFID) technology has often been suggested as a remedy to the problem. We consider inventory record inaccuracy in a supply chain model, where a Stackelberg manufacturer sets the wholesale price and a retailer determines how much to stock for sale to customers. We first analyze the impact of inventory record inaccuracy on optimal stocking decisions and profits. By contrasting optimal decisions in a decentralized supply chain with those in an integrated supply chain, we find that inventory record inaccuracy exacerbates the inefficiencies resulting from double marginalization in decentralized supply chains. Assuming RFID technology can eliminate the problem of inventory record inaccuracy, we determine the cost thresholds at which RFID adoption becomes profitable. We show that a decentralized supply chain benefits more from RFID technology, such that RFID adoption improves supply chain coordination.     

Benefits of Hybrid Lateral Transshipments in Multi‐Item Inventory Systems under Periodic Replenishment

Lateral transshipments are a method of responding to shortages of stock in a network of inventory‐holding locations. Conventional reactive approaches only seek to meet immediate shortages. The study proposes hybrid transshipments which exploit economies of scale by moving additional stock between locations to prevent future shortages in addition to meeting immediate ones. The setting considered is motivated by retailers who operate networks of outlets supplying car parts via a system of periodic replenishment. It is novel in allowing non‐stationary stochastic demand and general patterns of dependence between multiple item types. The generality of our work makes it widely applicable. We develop an easy‐to‐compute quasi‐myopic heuristic for determining how hybrid transshipments should be made. We obtain simple characterizations of the heuristic and demonstrate its strong cost performance in both small and large networks in an extensive numerical study.     

A Bayesian Inventory Model Using Real‐Time Condition Monitoring Information

Lack of coordination between machinery fault diagnosis and inventory management for spare parts can lead to increased inventory costs and disruptions in production activity. We develop a framework for incorporating real‐time condition monitoring information into inventory decisions for spare parts. We consider a manufacturer who periodically replenishes inventory for a machine part that is subject to deterioration. The deterioration is captured via condition monitoring and modeled using a Wiener process. The resulting degradation model is used to derive the life distribution of a functioning part and to estimate the demand distribution for spare parts. This estimation is periodically updated, in a Bayesian manner, as additional information on part deterioration is obtained. We develop an inventory model that incorporates this updated demand distribution and demonstrate that a dynamic base‐stock policy, in which the optimal base‐stock level is a function of some subset of the observed condition monitoring information, is optimal. We propose a myopic critical fractile policy that captures the essence of the optimal policy, but is easier to compute. Computational experiments indicate that this heuristic performs quite well relative to the optimal policy. Adaptive inventory policies such as these can help manufacturers to increase machine availability and reduce inventory costs.     

The Role of Contract Expirations in Service Parts Management

The majority of after‐sales service providers manage their service parts inventory by focusing on the availability of service parts. This approach, combined with automatic replenishment systems, leads to reactive inventory control policies where base stock levels are adjusted only after a service contract expires. Consequently, service providers often face excess stock of critical service parts that are difficult to dispose due to their specificity. In this study, we address this problem by developing inventory control policies taking into account contract expirations. Our key idea is to reduce the base stock level of the one‐for‐one policy before obsolescence (a full or partial drop in demand rate) occurs and let demand take away excess stock. We refer to this policy as the single‐adjustment policy. We benchmark the single‐adjustment policy with the multiple‐adjustment policy (allowing multiple base stock adjustments) formulated as a dynamic program and verify that for a wide range of instances the single‐adjustment policy is an effective heuristic for the multiple‐adjustment policy. We also compare the single‐adjustment policy with the world‐dependent base stock policy offered by Song and Zipkin (1993) and identify the parameter combinations where both policies yield similar costs. We consider two special cases of the single‐adjustment policy where the base stock level is kept fixed or the base stock adjustment is postponed to the contract expiration time. We find that the initial demand rate, contract expiration time, and size of the drop in demand rate are the three key parameters driving the choice between the single‐adjustment policy and its special cases.     

Inventory Management for Customers with Alternative Lead Times

It is common for suppliers operating in batch‐production mode to deal with patient and impatient customers. This paper considers inventory models in which a supplier provides alternative lead times to its customers: a short or a long lead time. Orders from patient customers can be taken by the supplier and included in the next production cycle, while orders from impatient customers have to be satisfied from the on‐hand inventory. We denote the action to commit one unit of on‐hand inventory to patient or impatient customers as the inventory‐commitment decision, and the initial inventory stocking as the inventory‐replenishment decision. We first characterize the optimal inventory‐commitment policy as a threshold type, and then prove that the optimal inventory‐replenishment policy is a base‐stock type. Then, we extend our analysis to models to consider cases of a multi‐cycle setting, a supply‐capacity constraint, and the on‐line charged inventory‐holding cost. We also evaluate and compare the performances of the optimal inventory‐commitment policy and the inventory‐rationing policy. Finally, to further investigate the benefits and pitfalls of introducing an alternative lead‐time choice, we use the customer‐choice model to study the demand gains and losses, known as demand‐induction and demand‐cannibalization effects, respectively.     

Experimental Results Indicating Lattice‐Dependent Policies May Be Optimal for General Assemble‐To‐Order Systems

We consider an assemble‐to‐order (ATO) system with multiple products, multiple components which may be demanded in different quantities by different products, possible batch ordering of components, random lead times, and lost sales. We model the system as an infinite‐horizon Markov decision process under the average cost criterion. A control policy specifies when a batch of components should be produced, and whether an arriving demand for each product should be satisfied. Previous work has shown that a lattice‐dependent base‐stock and lattice‐dependent rationing (LBLR) policy is an optimal stationary policy for a special case of the ATO model presented here (the generalized M‐system). In this study, we conduct numerical experiments to evaluate the use of an LBLR policy for our general ATO model as a heuristic, comparing it to two other heuristics from the literature: a state‐dependent base‐stock and state‐dependent rationing (SBSR) policy, and a fixed base‐stock and fixed rationing (FBFR) policy. Remarkably, LBLR yields the globally optimal cost in each of more than 22,500 instances of the general problem, outperforming SBSR and FBFR with respect to both objective value (by up to 2.6% and 4.8%, respectively) and computation time (by up to three orders and one order of magnitude, respectively) in 350 of these instances (those on which we compare the heuristics). LBLR and SBSR perform significantly better than FBFR when replenishment batch sizes imperfectly match the component requirements of the most valuable or most highly demanded product. In addition, LBLR substantially outperforms SBSR if it is crucial to hold a significant amount of inventory that must be rationed.     

Inventory‐Based Dynamic Pricing with Costly Price Adjustment

We study an average‐cost stochastic inventory control problem in which the firm can replenish inventory and adjust the price at anytime. We establish the optimality to change the price from low to high in each replenishment cycle as inventory is depleted. With costly price adjustment, scale economies of inventory replenishment are reflected in the cycle time instead of lot size—An increased fixed ordering cost leads to an extended replenishment cycle but does not necessarily increase the order quantity. A reduced marginal cost of ordering calls for an increased order quantity, as well as speeding up product selling within a cycle. We derive useful properties of the profit function that allows for reducing computational complexity of the problem. For systems requiring short replenishment cycles, the optimal solution can be easily computed by applying these properties. For systems requiring long replenishment cycles, we further consider a relaxed problem that is computational tractable. Under this relaxation, the sum of fixed ordering cost and price adjustment cost is equal to (greater than, less than) the total inventory holding cost within a replenishment cycle when the inventory holding cost is linear (convex, concave) in the stock level. Moreover, under the optimal solution, the time‐average profit is the same across all price segments when the inventory holding cost is accounted properly. Through a numerical study, we demonstrate that inventory‐based dynamic pricing can lead to significant profit improvement compared with static pricing and limited price adjustment can yield a benefit that is close to unlimited price adjustment. To be able to enjoy the benefit of dynamic pricing, however, it is important to appropriately choose inventory levels at which the price is revised.     

Replenishment Policies for Multi‐Product Stochastic Inventory Systems with Correlated Demand and Joint‐Replenishment Costs

This study analyzes optimal replenishment policies that minimize expected discounted cost of multi‐product stochastic inventory systems. The distinguishing feature of the multi‐product inventory system that we analyze is the existence of correlated demand and joint‐replenishment costs across multiple products. Our objective is to understand the structure of the optimal policy and use this structure to construct a heuristic method that can solve problems set in real‐world sizes/dimensions. Using an MDP formulation we first compute the optimal policy. The optimal policy can only be computed for problems with a small number of product types due to the curse of dimensionality. Hence, using the insight gained from the optimal policy, we propose a class of policies that captures the impact of demand correlation on the structure of the optimal policy. We call this class (s, c, d, S)‐policies, and also develop an algorithm to compute good policies in this class, for large multi‐product problems. Finally using an exhaustive set of computational examples we show that policies in this class very closely approximate the optimal policy and can outperform policies analyzed in prior literature which assume independent demand. We have also included examples that illustrate performance under the average cost objective.     

Heuristics for Base‐Stock Levels in Multi‐Echelon Distribution Networks

We study inventory optimization for locally controlled, continuous‐review distribution systems with stochastic customer demands. Each node follows a base‐stock policy and a first‐come, first‐served allocation policy. We develop two heuristics, the recursive optimization (RO) heuristic and the decomposition‐aggregation (DA) heuristic, to approximate the optimal base‐stock levels of all the locations in the system. The RO heuristic applies a bottom‐up approach that sequentially solves single‐variable, convex problems for each location. The DA heuristic decomposes the distribution system into multiple serial systems, solves for the base‐stock levels of these systems using the newsvendor heuristic of Shang and Song (2003), and then aggregates the serial systems back into the distribution system using a procedure we call “backorder matching.” A key advantage of the DA heuristic is that it does not require any evaluation of the cost function (a computationally costly operation that requires numerical convolution). We show that, for both RO and DA, changing some of the parameters, such as leadtime, unit backordering cost, and demand rate, of a location has an impact only on its own local base‐stock level and its upstream locations’ local base‐stock levels. An extensive numerical study shows that both heuristics perform well, with the RO heuristic providing more accurate results and the DA heuristic consuming less computation time. We show that both RO and DA are asymptotically optimal along multiple dimensions for two‐echelon distribution systems. Finally, we show that, with minor changes, both RO and DA are applicable to the balanced allocation policy.     

Updating Inventories of Substitutable Resources in Response to Forecast Updates

We show simple yet optimal results to update the inventory/capacity levels, expected profit, fill rates, and service levels of substitutable resources in response to an updating of the mean demand forecasts for the resources. We find that a change in the mean demand of one resource does not affect the optimal inventory level of any other resource. The results are obtained for demands with location‐scale distribution, and for a revenue structure satisfying a triangle property such that the manager will always use the inventory of a resource to meet her own demand first before using it for substitution. The results for updating the performance measures also extend to managers who maintain non‐optimal inventory/capacity levels. Implications for procurement, sales and operational planning, and multi‐store operations are discussed.     

The Backroom Effect in Retail Operations

Traditional inventory models fail to take into account the dynamics between the retail sales floor and the backroom, commonly used by retailers for extra storage. When a replenishment order for a given item arrives at a retail store, it may not fit on the allocated shelf space, making backroom storage necessary. In this article, we introduce the backroom effect (BRE) as a consequence of misalignment of case pack size, shelf space, and reorder point. This misalignment results from the fragmented nature of inventory policy decision making in the retail industry and affects basic trade‐offs in inventory models. We specify conditions under which the BRE exists, quantify the expected amount of backroom inventory, derive an optimal short‐term inventory policy, and assess the impact of the BRE on the optimal inventory policy and total costs. Our results indicate that ignoring the BRE leads to artificially high reorder points and higher total costs. The paper concludes with a discussion of theoretical and managerial implications.     

The Effect of Distribution Processes on Replenishment Lead Time and Inventory

We investigate the interrelationship of distribution center picking policies and supply chain inventory performance. In particular, we show how the picking sequence in the upstream supply chain link affects the inventory levels of items being replenished to a downstream link for a common “ship‐when‐full” trailer dispatching policy. Perturbing the picking sequence affects items’ inventory levels asymmetrically which causes the aggregate system inventory to vary. We separate the items in replenishment into those units in transit and those awaiting shipment from the upstream distribution step: we call the latter the residual replenishment. We show that the process governing aggregate residual replenishment is Markov and has a stationary distribution that is discrete uniform. Computing the item‐level residual distribution is intractable and so we develop analytical models from which we derive hypotheses for the effectiveness of stable vs. random picking sequences, how item residual replenishment varies with stable picking sequences, and how the aggregate inventory level changes with picking sequence. These suggest a heuristic sequencing algorithm for minimizing inventory, which performs well in simulation tests over a large testbed of parameter sets.     

RFID‐Enabled Visibility and Retail Inventory Record Inaccuracy: Experiments in the Field

Accurate inventory records are key to effective store execution, affecting forecasting, ordering, and replenishment. Prior empirical research, however, shows that retailer inventory records are inherently inaccurate. Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) enables visibility into the movement of inventories in the supply chain. Using two different field experiments, the current research investigates the effectiveness of this visibility in reducing retail store inventory record inaccuracy (IRI). Study 1 used an interrupted time‐series design and involved daily physical counts of all products in one category in 13 stores (8 treatments and 5 controls) of a major global retailer over 23 weeks. Results indicate a significant decrease in IRI of approximately 26% due to RFID‐enabled visibility. Using an untreated control group design with pre‐test and post‐test, Study 2 expands the number of categories to five and the number of stores to 62 (31 treatment and 31 control stores). Results show that the effectiveness of RFID in reducing IRI varies by category (ranging from no statistically significant improvement to 81%). Results also suggest that RFID ameliorates the effects of known determinants of IRI and provide the key insight that the technology is most effective for product categories characterized by these determinants.     

Managing Retail Shelf and Backroom Inventories When Demand Depends on the Shelf‐Stock Level

Inventory displayed on the retail sales floor not only performs the classical supply function but also plays a role in affecting consumers’ buying behavior and hence the total demand. Empirical evidence from the retail industry shows that for some types of products, higher levels of on‐shelf inventory have a demand‐increasing effect (“billboard effect”) while for some other types of products, higher levels of on‐shelf inventory have a demand‐decreasing effect (“scarcity effect”). This suggests that retailers may use the amount of shelf stock on display as a tool to influence demand and operate a store backroom to hold the inventory of items not displayed on the shelves, introducing the need for efficient management of the backroom and on‐shelf inventories. The purpose of this study is to address such an issue by considering a periodic‐review inventory system in which demand in each period is stochastic and depends on the amount of inventory displayed on the shelf. We first analyze the problem in a finite‐horizon setting and show under a general demand model that the system inventory is optimally replenished by a base‐stock policy and the shelf stock is controlled by two critical points representing the target levels to raise up/drop down the on‐shelf inventory level. In the infinite‐horizon setting, we find that the optimal policies simplify to stationary base‐stock type policies. Under the billboard effect, we further show that the optimal policy is monotone in the system states. Numerical experiments illustrate the value of smart backroom management strategy and show that significant profit gains can be obtained by jointly managing the backroom and on‐shelf inventories.     

Static-dynamic uncertainty strategy for a single-item stochastic inventory control problem

We consider a single-stage inventory system facing non-stationary stochastic demand of the customers in a finite planning horizon. Motivated by the practice, the replenishment times need to be determined and frozen once and for all at the beginning of the horizon while decisions on the exact replenishment quantities can be deferred until the replenishment time. This operating scheme is refereed to as a “static-dynamic uncertainty” strategy in the literature [3]. We consider dynamic fixed-ordering and linear end-of-period holding costs, as well as dynamic penalty costs, or service levels. We prove that the optimal ordering policy is a base stock policy for both penalty cost and service level constrained models. Since an exponential exhaustive search based on dynamic programming yields the optimal ordering periods and the associated base stock levels, it is not possible to compute the optimal policy parameters for longer planning horizons. Thus, we develop two heuristics. Numerical experiments show that both heuristics perform well in terms of solution quality and scale-up efficiently; hence, any practically relevant large instance can be solved in reasonable time. Finally, we discuss how our results and heuristics can be extended to handle capacity limitations and minimum order quantity considerations.     

Optimal Control of Replenishment and Substitution in an Inventory System with Nonstationary Batch Demand

We study an inventory system in which a supplier supplies demand using two mutually substitutable products over a selling season of T periods, with a single replenishment opportunity at the beginning of the season. As the season starts, customer orders arrive in each period, for either type of products, following a nonstationary Poisson process with random batch sizes. The substitution model we consider combines the usual supplier‐driven and customer‐driven schemes, in that the supplier may choose to offer substitution, at a discount price, or may choose not to; whereas the customer may or may not accept the substitution when it is offered. The supplier's decisions are the supply and substitution rules in each period throughout the season, and the replenishment quantities for both products at the beginning of the season. With a stochastic dynamic programming formulation, we first prove the concavity of the value function, which facilitates the solution to the optimal replenishment quantities. We then show that the optimal substitution follows a threshold rule, and establish the monotonicity of the thresholds over time and with respect to key cost parameters. We also propose a heuristic exhaustive policy, and illustrate its performance through numerical examples.     

BlueLinx can benefit from innovative inventory management methods for commodity forward buys

Commodity prices often fluctuate significantly from one purchasing opportunity to the next. These fluctuations allow firms to benefit from forward buying (buying for future demand in addition to current demand) when prices are low. We propose a combined heuristic to determine the optimal number of future periods a firm should purchase at each ordering opportunity in order to maximize total expected profit when there is uncertainty in future demand and future buying price. We compare our heuristic with existing methods via simulation using real demand data from BlueLinx, a two-stage distributor of building products. The results show that our combined heuristic performs better than any existing methods considering forward buying or safety stock separately. We also compare our heuristic to the optimal inventory management policy by full enumeration for a smaller data set. The proposed heuristic is shown to be close to optimal. This study is the first to decide both the optimal number of future periods to buy for uncertain purchase price and the appropriate purchasing quantity with safety stock for uncertain demand simultaneously. The experience suggests that the proposed combined heuristic is simple and can be very beneficial for any company where forward buying is possible.     

STOCK LEVELS AND DELIVERY RATES IN VENDORMANAGED INVENTORY PROGRAMS

Using the latest information technology, powerful retailers like Wal‐Mart have taken the lead in forging shorter replenishment‐cycles, automated supply systems with suppliers. With the objective to reduce cost, these retailers are directing suppliers to take full responsibility for managing stocks and deliveries. Suppliers' performance is measured according to how often inventory is shipped to the retailer, and how often customers are unable to purchase the product because it is out of stock. This emerging trend also implies that suppliers are absorbing a large part of the inventory and delivery costs and, therefore, must plan delivery programs including delivery frequency to ensure that the inherent costs are minimized. With the idea to incorporate this shift in focus, this paper looks at the problem facing the supplier who wants quicker replenishment at lower cost. In particular, we present a model that seeks the best trade‐off among inventory investment, delivery rates, and permitting shortages to occur, given some random demand pattern for the product. The process generating demand consists of two components: one is deterministic and the other is random. The random part is assumed to follow a compound Poisson process. Furthermore, we assume that the supplier may fail to meet uniform shipping schedules, and, therefore, uncertainty is present in delivery times. The solution to this transportationinventory problem requires determining jointly delivery rates and stock levels that will minimize transportation, inventory, and shortage costs. Several numerical results are presented to give a feel of the optimal policy's general behavior.