基于核心-辅助技术匹配的二次创新及其演化路径研究

本研究提出了基于核心技术与辅助技术匹配的二次创新及其演化模型,详细归纳了后发企业创新演化路径,以解释中国本土企业的创新成功。通过对中兴通讯案例的编码和归类,本文界定了后发企业核心技术与辅助技术的学习与相关创新。通过对纵向分析,后发企业的创新可以分为三个阶段:在狭义二次创新阶段,后发企业进行核心技术引进模仿和本地辅助技术的利用型创新,为核心技术适配本地的辅助技术;在后二次创新阶段,后发企业进行辅助技术探索和核心技术利用,跟踪国外新兴核心技术,进行基于辅助技术研发的价值创造型创新;在一次创新阶段,后发企业进行核心技术探索,并进行辅助技术利用以推动核心技术创新。本文归纳了两个理论命题:第一,发展中国家后发企业的创新是一个核心技术从模仿引进、利用创新到探索创新的演化过程,辅助技术常常先于核心技术进入探索阶段;第二,后发企业核心技术的利用创新驱动了辅助技术探索,核心技术探索创新驱动了辅助技术利用。     

系统集成创新与知识的集成和生成

自主创新中的集成创新与引进吸收消化再创新都可以看作是系统集成创新。系统集成创新是把已有的知识、技术创造性地以系统集成的方式创造出前所未有的新产品、新工艺、新的服务方式或新的经营管理模式,其新颖性表现在系统的集成思想和方式上。系统集成创新具有成本低、时间短、风险小、灵活性大的特点,特别适用于我国当前的发展水平。从系统思想出发,探讨了系统集成创新的特点,并研究了创新过程中的知识集成与生成问题。指出基于二分法的知识转化与生成之思路的局限性,提出基于多阶段知识集成的知识转化与生成的思路与步骤。     

Performance Effects Related to the Sequence of Integration of Healthcare Technologies

There is a natural order to most events in life: Everything from learning to read to DNA sequences in molecular biology follows some predetermined, structured methodology that has been refined to yield improved results. Likewise, it would seem that firms could benefit by adopting and implementing technologies in some logical way so as to increase their overall performance. In this study of 555 hospitals, we investigate the order in which medical technologies are transformed into information technologies through a process of converting them from stand‐alone technologies to interoperable, integrated information systems and whether certain configurations of sequences of integration yield additional value. We find that sequence does matter and that hospitals that integrated foundational technologies first—which in this case are known to be more complex—tend to perform better. Theoretical and practical implications of this finding and others are discussed.     

Social Influence,Risk and Benefit Perceptions,and the Acceptability of Risky Energy Technologies: An Explanatory Model of Nuclear Power Versus Shale Gas

Risky energy technologies are often controversial and debates around them are polarized; in such debates public acceptability is key. Research on public acceptability has emphasized the importance of intrapersonal factors but has largely neglected the influence of interpersonal factors. In an online survey (N = 948) with a representative sample of the United Kingdom, we therefore integrate interpersonal factors (i.e., social influence as measured by social networks) with two risky energy technologies that differ in familiarity (nuclear power vs. shale gas) to examine how these factors explain risk and benefit perceptions and public acceptability. Findings show that benefit perceptions are key in explaining acceptability judgments. However, risk perceptions are more important when people are less familiar with the energy technology. Social network factors affect perceived risks and benefits associated with risky energy technology, hereby indirectly helping to form one's acceptability judgment toward the technology. This effect seems to be present regardless of the perceived familiarity with the energy technology. By integrating interpersonal with intrapersonal factors in an explanatory model, we show how the current “risk–benefit acceptability” model used in risk research can be further developed to advance the current understanding of acceptability formation.     

引入整合风险的4PL模式下供应链资源整合优化

在对4PL模式下供应链资源整合运作特征及整合中主导因素及其关系进行简要描述的基础上,围绕对整合决策具有重要影响作用的整合风险进行了分析;提出了引入整合风险的资源整合决策模式,建立了4PL模式下供应链资源整合决策的拓展多目标优化数学模型,搭建了改进的蚁群寻优算法实现该整合决策优化过程的求解。最后通过算例验证了优化过程及算法的有效性与可行性。整合决策优化模型及算法突出体现了4PL的运作优势,突出了从战略高度及系统性角度对供应链整合风险的把握,同时实现了资源整合优化多目标之间的权衡。     

基于学习和能力互补动态的研发联盟稳定性研究

合作研发是企业创新的常用战略措施,然后合作研发却常常不能维持较长时间,而且比较松散的合作形式逐渐成为主流。本文在Sinha&Cusumano模型基础上,通过引入学习因素,对互补因子进一步进行考察,利用互补因子的变化解释了上述现象产生的原因,也为选择研发合作伙伴提供了一个参考依据,即考察对方合作动机中的能力互补与学习因素,避免合作意外或较早终止。     

区间数互补判断矩阵的一致性及其排序研究

由于目前国内外文献对区间数互补判断矩阵的性质研究较少,从而使得对排序方法的相关研究缺乏理论依据.针对这些缺陷,本文研究了区间数互补判断矩阵的性质及其排序方法问题.根据区间数互补判断矩阵的定义,给出了区间数互补判断矩阵的一致性、严格强传递性与弱传递性等定义,并研究了一致性判断矩阵的性质,并说明这些性质更符合人们的思维特征.在一致性性质的基础上建立了区间数互补判断矩阵排序的非线性规划模型,算例分析表明该方法是有效可行的.     

新兴技术的物种特性及形成路径研究

基于新兴技术的概念和特征,以及物种形成的基本理论,阐明了新兴技术的物种特性;同时,在进行生物进化与技术演化的相关概念对比的基础上,类比物种形成方式对新兴技术形成路径进行了探讨,并总结了每一条路径下形成的各类新兴技术的特点和发展趋势,为今后针对每一种特定的新兴技术作深入研究奠定基础。     

Risk Perception and Social Acceptability of Technologies: The French Case

The authors present results of a February 1987 survey on judged frequency of mortality causes and risk perception of technologies in a representative sample of the French population. Although the French context is very different, and the impact of public controversies have been very limited on technological choices such as the nuclear energy program, strong similarities in risk perception of technologies are observed with results from U.S. surveys. Results, which could be worthwhile for other countries, suggest that risk perception is influenced by two different types of components. The first influence is the global feeling of "security" that society procures to its members. Such feeling depends on the individual's socioeconomic status, subjective state of health, and personal discomfort in daily life, and explains individual aversion to risk independently of the mortality causes or technologies involved. The second influence is the degree of perceived social legitimization of the activities involving risks. Risks of medical and transportation activities are strongly opposed to illegitimate risky behaviors (smoking, drugs, alcohol); technologies which have been an object of public debate (nuclear plants, the chemical industry, lead in gasoline) have an intermediate position reflecting the remaining uncertainties of public opinion about their risk–benefit balancing. Tentative conclusions for risk communication are proposed.     

有可再生能源和电力存储设施并网的智能电网优化用电策略

大量可再生能源和存储设施集中或分布接入电网,缓解了电网的供给压力,但同时也对电力系统安全造成新的威胁。合理使用新能源和可存储设施使之更好为电网服务,是现代电网亟待解决的一个问题。本文对有可存储设备和可再生能源并网的电力系统进行研究,根据可再生能源在实际生活中的情形,将其划分为两类：私人新能源发电和公共新能源发电,其中私人新能源发电可供自身直接使用,多余部分并入电网,而公共新能源发电直接并入电网,然后针对上述复杂情形,结合用户实际需求,以所有用户效用最大化、成本最小化为目标函数,建立优化模型,给出了一种既有可存储设备又有可再生能源复杂并网情况下用户优化用电策略——包括家用电器、新能源、以及存储设备充放电策略。对模型的性质进行研究,考虑到模型是凸规划,强对偶成立,用拉格朗日对偶算法给出了模型的解。求解过程中,由于目标函数是非光滑的,采用光滑化的技术将目标函数光滑化,将非光滑问题转化为光滑问题,进一步利用拟牛顿下降法求解。该策略能确保新能源得到优先、充分利用,体现用户效用最大化、成本最小化,同时可以避免由于新能源并网可能会造成电网不稳定情况的出现;光滑化的方法不但适用于本文,经过适当改进后也可适用于其他目标函数为非光滑的情况。仿真结果验证了模型的合理性和算法的可行性。     

政府支持、信任与供应链外部整合的关系研究

当前学术界对于影响供应链整合的因素、这些因素如何影响到供应链整合的研究相对匮乏。本研究则以广东省珠三角地区251家制造业为调查对象,构建了政府支持、信任与供应链外部整合之间关系的理论模型,以结构方程为工具,对政府支持、客户信任、供应商信任、客户整合、供应商整合之间的关系进行了实证研究。研究结果表明,政府支持对客户信任、供应商信任均有显著的正向影响;政府支持对客户整合、供应商整合也均有显著的影响;信任对供应链外部整合具有显著的正向影响;此外,政府支持会以信任为中介,间接地对供应链外部整合产生影响,本研究弥补了我国情境下制度与信任因素对供应链整合影响相关研究的空缺,研究结果对我国制造业进行高效供应链整合具有一定的启发意义。     

知识共享过程对信息系统整合时间进度影响分析

通过建立知识积累曲线模型以及结合模型进行案例分析,研究信息系统整合过程中知识共享程度、系统创新度以及知识获取能力对系统整合时间进度的影响,得到影响因素变化时信息系统整合的时间进度变化趋势以及在知识创新度和知识获取能力不同的条件下,信息系统整合时间进度节约对知识共享的依赖程度.     

基于系统观的技术集成过程模型研究

技术集成是一种长期的、重要的技术管理和生产组织方式,研究技术集成对于处在技术追赶中的中国企业具有重要的理论意义和现实意义.技术集成中涉及到的各类知识以及它们的作用是理解技术集成的关键,对技术集成中涉及的知识的研究现状进行分析和归纳,在系统科学的指导下,结合对技术集成中知识的已有研究,对其中的知识进行重新划分和界定,说明技术集成中的知识类型及其相互关系.在此基础上提出技术集成的过程模型,从逻辑和知识两个维度阐明技术集成的过程,并讨论了该模型中知识的属性和模型的作用.     

基于产业集成的科技创业企业成长路径——以路明科技集团为例

为探讨科技创业企业在不连续技术变化环境中进行自主创新的过程与机理,采用案例研究的方法分析了路明科技集团的成长路径。发现仅有技术上的原始创新不足以支撑创业企业的持续高速成长,通过合资合作、直接投资进行纵向产业集成以及技术并购、二次创新等手段进行横向产业集成是企业实现高效成长的有效路径。     

基于碳限额与交易机制的上下游企业可再生能源投资策略研究

本文在碳限额与交易机制的背景下,构建了由发电商与售电商组成的二级电力供应链,考虑了发电商投资可再生能源与售电商投资可再生能源两种不同情形。在此基础上,研究了电价与可再生能源投资决策问题。通过比较不同情形下的均衡结果,主要的研究结果如下：(1)相对于发电商投资可再生能源的情形而言,售电商投资可再生能源的情形中将有更多的投资量。(2)在发电商投资可再生能源的情形中,售电商的利润低于发电商的利润;而在售电商投资可再生能源的情形中,售电商的利润高于发电商的利润。(3)可再生能源投资成本系数的增加,将降低可再生能源的投资量、电价和电力需求量,从而导致售电商利润会减少,但发电商利润会增加。(4)可再生能源偏好系数的增加使得售电商利润增加,发电商利润减少。     

中国企业国内横向整合与国际化所有权优势

构建了中国企业国内横向整合与企业国际化所有权优势的逻辑关系,并提出了相应的研究假设.基于二手数据的实证研究发现:中国企业的国内地域多元化程度与资产优势正相关,与制度优势呈U型关系;制度优势与企业绩效呈U型关系;国际化程度对制度优势与企业绩效间的关系呈负向调节作用.研究表明,解释中国企业国际竞争优势来源的突破口在于制度优势,提出的新型所有权优势形成机制丰富了OLI的内涵,同时又回应了当前国际学术界关于关注新兴市场企业国际化行为的母国制度效应的呼吁.     

Quantifying the Effects of Expert Selection and Elicitation Design on Experts’ Confidence in Their Judgments About Future Energy Technologies

Expert elicitations are now frequently used to characterize uncertain future technology outcomes. However, their usefulness is limited, in part because: estimates across studies are not easily comparable; choices in survey design and expert selection may bias results; and overconfidence is a persistent problem. We provide quantitative evidence of how these choices affect experts’ estimates. We standardize data from 16 elicitations, involving 169 experts, on the 2030 costs of five energy technologies: nuclear, biofuels, bioelectricity, solar, and carbon capture. We estimate determinants of experts’ confidence using survey design, expert characteristics, and public R&D investment levels on which the elicited values are conditional. Our central finding is that when experts respond to elicitations in person (vs. online or mail) they ascribe lower confidence (larger uncertainty) to their estimates, but more optimistic assessments of best‐case (10th percentile) outcomes. The effects of expert affiliation and country of residence vary by technology, but in general: academics and public‐sector experts express lower confidence than private‐sector experts; and E.U. experts are more confident than U.S. experts. Finally, extending previous technology‐specific work, higher R&D spending increases experts’ uncertainty rather than resolves it. We discuss ways in which these findings should be seriously considered in interpreting the results of existing elicitations and in designing new ones.     

How People Perceive and Will Cope with Risks from the Diffusion of Ubiquitous Information and Communication Technologies

Information and communication technologies (ICTs) are increasingly pervasive and continue to reshape our environment. This trend carries different risks. Therefore, the early sensitization of people to these risks, as well as improving their capacity for protective coping behavior, is essential. Based on the protection motivation theory (PMT), we examined with structural equation modeling the relationships between different components of threat and coping appraisal to explain protective and nonprotective responses. Calculations were performed with data from a representative survey on perception and use of ICT among German residents (N= 5,030). Our findings largely supported the proposed model: an increased perceived threat was positively related to the intentions to react protectively and nonprotectively. Perceived coping efficacy increased the protective and decreased the nonprotective responses. Negative affect enhanced the perceived threat and the nonprotective response, but inhibited protective intentions. The implications of these findings on how to sensitize people to the risks of these new technologies are outlined.     

伙伴关系、物流能力与供应链整合关系研究

目前学术界对于影响供应链整合的因素以及这些因素如何影响到供应链整合的研究相对匮乏。本研究以供应链管理为视角,构建了伙伴关系、物流能力和供应链整合之间关系的概念模型。基于来自218家供应链上下游企业的调查数据,采用结构方程模型（SEM）的方法对上述概念模型进行了实证研究。研究结果显示：伙伴关系、物流能力对供应链整合均有显著的正向影响;同时结果显示,伙伴关系对物流能力也具有显著的正向影响,且透过物流能力,伙伴关系对供应链整合的间接影响高于其直接影响。此外研究结果还显示,不同规模及行业企业的伙伴关系和物流能力对供应链整合的作用大不相同。本文不仅为研究伙伴关系对供应链整合的影响路径和作用机理提供了一个新的视角,而且还为我国不同规模及行业企业如何利用伙伴关系和物流能力来提升供应链整合提供了决策的依据。     

The Changing Face of Distribution Channels: Partial Forward Integration and Strategic Investments

Recent years have seen a drastic transformation in the organization of wholesale and retail markets. Where once clear distinctions between wholesale suppliers and retail competitors existed, now an era of blurring boundaries has emerged. This transformation has been marked by the introduction of online channels for suppliers to provide products directly to consumers while, at the same time, traditional retailers too persist. Thus, retailers are both wholesale customers and retail competitors of many manufacturers. The consequences of the rapid emergence of instances of such partial forward integration by suppliers are not yet fully known. To this end, we study how partial forward integration can affect competing firms' strategic investments. We find that integration shifts the environment from being one in which firms invest to undercut retail rivals to one in which firms invest more in boosting demand, even that of their competitors. A case in point is the tendency for a manufacturer to invest broadly in brand promotion (benefiting both itself and its retail competitor), rather than heavy promotion of its own sales channel. The shift in the nature of strategic investments arising from partial forward integration implies that such integration can benefit firms and consumers alike, even the firm which finds itself reliant on a competitor for supplies.