WHY ARE THE 2000s SO DIFFERENT FROM THE 1970s? A STRUCTURAL INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN THE MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF OIL PRICES

In the 1970s, large increases in the price of oil were associated with sharp decreases in output and large increases in inflation. In the 2000s, even larger increases in the price of oil were associated with much milder movements in output and inflation. Using a structural VAR approach, Blanchard and Gali (in J. Gali and M. Gertler (eds.) 2009, International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, University of Chicago Press, pp. 373–428) argued that this reflected a change in the causal relation from the price of oil to output and inflation. They then argued that this change could be due to a combination of three factors: a smaller share of oil in production and consumption, lower real wage rigidity, and better monetary policy. Their argument, based on simulations of a simple new‐Keynesian model, was informal. Our purpose in this paper is to take the next step, and to estimate the explanatory power and contribution of each of these factors. To do so, we use a minimum distance estimator that minimizes, over the set of structural parameters and for each of two samples (pre‐ and post‐1984), the distance between the empirical SVAR‐based impulse response functions and those implied by a new‐Keynesian model. Our empirical results point to an important role for all three factors.     

IS THE ELASTICITY OF INTERTEMPORAL SUBSTITUTION CONSTANT?

In all common models of inter‐temporal allocation, the assumption of a constant elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS) imposes surprising limitations on within‐period budget allocations. Consequently, the constant EIS assumption can be tested with demand data. In fact, the EIS is pinned down completely by the shape of Engel curves: if the EIS is constant then the EIS can be estimated without variation in the interest rate. That a price elasticity can be estimated without variation in the relevant price illustrates just how strong the constant EIS assumption is. The constant EIS assumption is rejected by demand data.     

LETTING DOWN THE TEAM? SOCIAL EFFECTS OF TEAM INCENTIVES

This paper estimates social effects of incentivizing people in teams. In three field experiments featuring exogenous team formation and opportunities for repeated social interactions, we find large team effects that operate through social channels. In particular, assignment to a team treatment increases productivity by 9%–17% relative to an individual incentive treatment, even though the individual incentive yields a higher private return. Further, we find that in a choice treatment individuals overwhelmingly prefer the individual incentive to the team incentive, despite the latter being more effective. These results are most consistent with the team effects operating through guilt or social pressure as opposed to pure altruism.     

DO HOUSE PRICES DRIVE CONSUMPTION GROWTH? THE COINCIDENT CYCLES OF HOUSE PRICES AND CONSUMPTION IN THE UK

This paper uses a realistic structural lifecycle model of consumption and housing decisions to understand how data might distinguish different mechanisms that explain the correlation between house prices and consumption. The model includes price and earnings shocks estimated from data (the latter including aggregate and idiosyncratic components), and incorporates realistic features of the UK mortgage market. We simulate the model using more than 30 years of realized shocks and under counterfactual scenarios. Our results confirm the intuition of earlier studies: house price shocks should have a larger effect on the consumption of older households and earnings shocks on young households.     

GLUTTONY AND SLOTH? CALORIES,LABOR MARKET ACTIVITY AND THE RISE OF OBESITY

The rise in obesity has largely been attributed to an increase in calorie consumption. We show that official government household survey data indicate that levels of calorie consumption have declined in England between 1980 and 2013; while there has been an increase in calories from food eaten out at restaurants, fast food, soft drinks and confectionery, overall there has been a decrease in total calories purchased. Households have shifted towards more expensive calories, both by substituting away from home production towards market production, and substituting towards higher quality foods. We show that the decline in calories can be partially, but not entirely, rationalized with weight gain by a decline in the strenuousness of work and daily life. (JEL: D12, I12, I18)     

COORDINATION FAILURES AND THE LENDER OF LAST RESORT: WAS BAGEHOT RIGHT AFTER ALL?

The classical doctrine of the Lender of Last Resort (LOLR), elaborated by Bagehot (1873), asserts that the central bank should lend to “illiquid but solvent” banks under certain conditions. Several authors have argued that this view is now obsolete: in modern interbank markets, a solvent bank cannot be illiquid. This paper provides a possible theoretical foundation for rescuing Bagehot's view. Our theory does not rely on the multiplicity of equilibria that arises in classical models of bank runs. We built a model of banks' liquidity crises that possesses a unique Bayesian equilibrium. In this equilibrium, there is a positive probability that a solvent bank cannot find liquidity assistance in the market. We derive policy implications about banking regulation (solvency and liquidity ratios) and interventions of the Lender of Last Resort. Furthermore, we find that public (bailout) and private (bail‐in) involvement are complementary in implementing the incentive efficient solution and that Bagehot's Lender of Last Resort facility must work together with institutions providing prompt corrective action and orderly failure resolution. Finally, we derive similar implications for an International Lender of Last Resort (ILOLR). (JEL: G21, G28)     

DO LAB EXPERIMENTS MISREPRESENT SOCIAL PREFERENCES? THE CASE OF SELF‐SELECTED STUDENT SAMPLES

Social preference research has received considerable attention among economists in recent years. However, the empirical foundation of social preferences is largely based on laboratory experiments with self‐selected students as participants. This is potentially problematic as students participating in experiments may behave systematically different than nonparticipating students or nonstudents. In this paper we empirically investigate whether laboratory experiments with student samples misrepresent the importance of social preferences. Our first study shows that students who exhibit stronger prosocial inclinations in an unrelated field donation are not more likely to participate in experiments. This suggests that self‐selection of more prosocial students into experiments is not a major issue. Our second study compares the behavior of students and participants recruited from the general population in a trust experiment. In general, we find very similar behavioral patterns for the two groups, but nonstudents make significantly more generous repayments suggesting that results from student samples might be seen as a lower bound for the importance of prosocial behavior.     

LEAN AND GREEN? AN EMPIRICAL EXAMINATION OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LEAN PRODUCTION AND ENVIRONMENTAL PERFORMANCE

Lean production may have a significant public good spillover—improved environmental performance. However, empirical evidence of the link between lean production practices and environmental performance has not resolved the nature of the relationship. To explore this issue, we conduct an empirical analysis of the environmental performance of 17,499 U.S. manufacturing establishments during the time period 1991–1996. We find that those establishments that adopt the quality management standard ISO 9000 are more likely to adopt the environmental management standard ISO 14000. We also find strong evidence that lean production, as measured by ISO 9000 adoption and low chemical inventories, is complementary to waste reduction and pollution reduction.     

IS THE ENDOWMENT EFFECT AN EXPECTATIONS EFFECT?

A hallmark result within behavioral economics is that individuals' choices are affected by current endowments. A recent theory due to Kőszegi and Rabin ( 2006 , Quarterly Journal of Economics, 121, 1133–1165) explains such endowment effect with a model of expectations‐based reference‐dependent preferences. Departing from past work, we conduct complementary experiments to disentangle expectations—verified probabilistic beliefs held by subjects—from other features of endowment—such as “assignment” to a good—hence allowing us to compare the effect of expectations with that of other variations. While mere assignment can affect choices, we do not find a large role in the effect for Kőszegi–Rabin expectations.     

DO NEWSPAPERS SERVE THE STATE? INCUMBENT PARTY INFLUENCE ON THE US PRESS, 1869–1928

Using data from 1869 to 1928, we estimate the effect of party control of state governments on the entry, exit, circulation, prices, number of pages, and content of Republican and Democratic daily newspapers. We exploit changes over time in party control of the governorship and state legislatures in a differences‐in‐differences design. We exploit close gubernatorial elections and state legislatures with small majorities in a parallel regression‐discontinuity design. Neither method reveals evidence that the party in power affects the partisan composition of the press. Our confidence intervals rule out modest effects, and we find little evidence of incumbent party influence even in times and places with high political stakes or low commercial stakes. The one exception is the Reconstruction South, an episode that we discuss in detail.     

DOES THE ILO DEFINITION CAPTURE ALL UNEMPLOYMENT?

The labour market status of many nonworking persons is at the boundary between unemployment and inactivity. Like the unemployed, they seek and are available for work; unlike them, their last search action was not recent enough to meet the International Labour Office definition of unemployment. In this paper we examine by nonparametric tests how the transition probabilities of these out‐of‐the‐labour‐force job seekers differ from those of the unemployed as well as the other nonparticipants. First, using data from the European Community Household Panel, we show that in most EU countries these job seekers constitute a distinct labour market state. Second, we rely on information available only in the Italian Labour Force Survey to derive a measure of search intensity that we use to break down the out‐of‐the‐labour‐force job seekers. On the basis of their transition probabilities, the most active are indistinguishable from the unemployed. (JEL: J64, J22, R23)     

CITY OF ANYUE 安岳，投资创业处女地

安岳，四川盆地中部的一个普通的县级行政区域，幅员面积2690平方公里。1400多年前，北周的一位官员出于安全和防御考虑，将县城安于四周险固而相对封闭的铁公山之山岳上，故取名为“安岳”。安岳是一个典型的丘陵农业大县、人口大县，在中国地图上，安岳目前只是毫不起眼的一个点。唯一能让世人与安岳产生联想的也许只有柠檬，尽管安岳还有被海外游客惊赞为“东方美神维纳斯”的石刻艺术精品“紫竹观音”，还有韩国的普州太后，还有生猪年出栏数全国第一，粉条产量西南第一，水稻产量全省第一……究其原因，有人认为“都是交通惹的祸”。安岳目前只有319国道和206省道与外界相通，长期以来，交通—直擒着安岳的命脉。交通闭塞注定安岳今天的闭塞。2007年，一条振奋人心的消息传出，令每一个安岳人为之欢欣鼓舞——两条高速公路和一条铁路将把安岳跟成都和重庆融为一体，历史最终把安岳推上了一个大舞台。     

HOW PROFESSORS OF OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT VIEW SERVICE OPERATIONS?

This study empirically tests assumptions that underlie operations management (OM) scholars' belief that service operations should be managed differently. Respondents were self-classified into manufacturing and service types. There is a significant statistical difference between the views held by each group with regard to statements such as “service Om should be taught as a separate course” and “service operations should be managed differently from manufacturing.” There was general consensus on the service research agenda with the exception of three research areas: time standards, technology, and productivity. The survey also revealed that customer influence has the greatest impact on service Om strategies and decisions.     

MANAGING THE DECISION SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY: A CASE FOR ETHICAL ANALYSIS?*

After ten years of rapid, if sometimes chaotic growth, it is time to reflect upon where Decision Sciences is headed. At stake are the essential questions of (1) should the growth of the discipline be managed, and if so (2) how should it be managed and who should do the managing? I argue that the growth of the discipline should be managed rather than be dictated by the technological imperative that states that any envisioned application of quantitative methods should be implemented. Moreover, I argue that, since to a large degree the implementation decision is an ethical question, the individual decision scientist must ultimately be held accountable. Finally, I suggest that Glenn Stassen's social ethic paradigm may be a useful vehicle for resolving intradiscipline conflicts. These abstract ideas are concretized by examining the growth of the area of artificial intelligence.     

WHAT MEASURE OF INFLATION SHOULD A CENTRAL BANK TARGET?

This paper assumes that a central bank commits itself to maintaining an inflation target and then asks what measure of the inflation rate the central bank should use if it wants to maximize economic stability. The paper first formalizes this problem and examines its microeconomic foundations. It then shows how the weight of a sector in the stability price index depends on the sector's characteristics, including size, cyclical sensitivity, sluggishness of price adjustment, and magnitude of sectoral shocks. When a numerical illustration of the problem is calibrated to U.S. data, one tentative conclusion is that a central bank that wants to achieve maximum stability of economic activity should use a price index that gives substantial weight to the level of nominal wages. (JEL: E42, E52, E58)     

ON FRAGILE GROUNDS: A REPLICATION OF “ARE MUSLIM IMMIGRANTS DIFFERENT IN TERMS OF CULTURAL INTEGRATION?”

This study is a replication of “Are Muslim Immigrants Different in terms of Cultural Integration?” by Alberto Bisin, Eleonora Patacchini, Thierry Verdier and Yves Zenou, published in the Journal of the European Economic Association, 6, 445–456, 2008. Bisin et al. (2008) report that they have 5,963 observations in their study. Using their empirical setup, we can only identify 1,901 relevant observations in the original data. After removing missing values we are left with 818 observations. We cannot replicate any of their results and our estimations yield no support for their claims.     

EXPLODING THE MYTH: DO ALL QUALITY MANAGEMENT PRACTICES CONTRIBUTE TO SUPERIOR QUALITY PERFORMANCE?

In his landmark article on total quality management, Powell (1995) lamented the lack of large scale studies investigating quality management practices and performance. This study begins to fill that void using a large, random sample of manufacturing sites. The results show that quality practices can be categorized into nine dimensions. However, not all of them contribute to superior quality outcomes. “Employee commitment,” “shared vision,” and “customer focus” combine to yield a positive correlation with quality outcomes. Conversely, other “hard” quality practices, such as “benchmarking,” “cellular work teams,” “advanced manufacturing technologies,” and “close supplier relations” do not contribute to superior quality outcomes.     

国外文献计量研究演化路径构建——以JOURNAL OF INFORMETRICS为例

目的:构建国外计量情报研究演化路径并掌握最新研究热点动态。方法:2009年—2018年Journal of Informetrics期刊的832篇文章,通过关键词、引文、作者等数据进行分析,构建演化路径。结果:国外文献计量学演化路径由规范研究转变为实证研究;由传统文献计量演化为代替计量学研究;由单一学术评估演化为网络社区化评估。