统计公信力与为社会公众服务意识

本文从近期政府统计公信力不断遭受公众和媒体质疑入手,对影响政府统计公信力的因素从统计工作自身、政府部门、公众和媒体等不同角度进行深入分析,进而提出提升政府统计公信力的应对措施。     

面向信息使用者的经济统计数据修订

经济统计数据修订是官方统计工作的重要内容之一,因为相关的修订会影响到统计数据使用者的决策,所以科学规范的修订程序会提升官方统计的权威性和公信力。归纳了国际货币基金组织对统计数据修订的四种类型,从信息使用者角度阐述统计修订工作的时效性、准确性、一致性、可获得性与约束性内涵,结合西方发达国家的经济统计数据修订实践和历史经验,特别是美国国内生产总值的修订经验,为中国经济统计数据修订工作实现规范化提供借鉴。     

Measuring the efficiency of public services: the limits of analysis

Summary.  Policy makers are increasingly seeking to develop overall measures of the effi-ciency of public service organizations. For that, the use of 'off-the-shelf' statistical tools such as data envelopment analysis and stochastic frontier analysis have been advocated as tools to measure organizational efficiency. The analytical sophistication of such methods has reached an advanced stage of development. We discuss the context within which such models are deployed, their underlying assumptions and their usefulness for a regulator of public services. Four specific model building issues are discussed: the weights that are attached to public service outputs; the specification of the statistical model; the treatment of environmental influences on performance; the treatment of dynamic effects. The paper concludes with recommendations for policy makers and researchers on the development and use of efficiency measurement techniques.     

Robust likelihood inference for public policy

Issues of public policy are typically decided by non‐specialists who are increasingly informed by statistical methods. In order to be influential, inferential techniques must be widely understood and accepted. This motivates the author to propose likelihood‐based methods that prove relatively insensitive to the choice of underlying distribution because they exploit a peculiarly stable relation between two standard errors and a 95% coverage probability. The author also notes that bootstrap and jackknife estimates of variance can sometimes be strongly biased. In fact, symbolic computations in R suggest that they are reliable only for statistics that are well approximated by averages whose distributions are roughly symmetric. The author thus proposes to transform the classical likelihood ratio into a statistic whose variance can be estimated robustly. He shows that the signed root of the log‐likelihood is well approximated by an average with a roughly symmetric distribution. This leads to Cox‐Tukey intervals for a Student‐like statistic and to simple confidence intervals for most models used in public policy.     

美国的消费价格指数体系及其对我国的启示

消费价格指数是官方统计对消费支出价格变动情况的一个基本描述,其数据质量高低在影响公众经济行为的同时,也在影响着一国（地区）宏观经济政策的有效性。文章以美国消费价格指数体系为研究对象,就美国统计实践中的传统CPI指数、PCE指数、C-CPI-U指数进行了对比分析,并从编制原理的改进、宏观经济政策的需要和可操作性等方面阐述了形成美国现有消费价格指数体系的原因。最后,借鉴美国的经验,结合我国现阶段CPI编制状况,提出了进一步优化我国消费价格指数统计的政策建议。     

Tobacco: public perceptions and the role of the industry

Summary. The paper briefly examines the substantial risks of smoking, and how people's perception of them may be influenced by tobacco control policy and by the activities of the tobacco industry. The comparative lack of effectiveness of the self-regulation system of implementing tobacco control policy is noted, illustrated by the example of cigarette pack health warnings, from the first examples under the voluntary system to the significantly more robust and effective pictorial warnings system pioneered by Canada and implemented by legislation, similar to measures recently approved by the European Union. Other aspects of tobacco control policy are discussed, including health education, restricting the promotion of tobacco and changing the social acceptability of smoking. Three areas of success in the UK—taxation, the leadership of doctors and sustained media advocacy—are described; and the paper concludes by looking at prospects for the future, with the forthcoming ban on most forms of tobacco promotion and the challenge of responding to growing demands to protect non-smokers from exposure to other people's tobacco smoke in the workplace and in public places.     

官方统计数据修订的国际经验

随着社会各界对统计数据越来越关注,官方统计数据的修订问题越来越重要。科学修订统计数据对于确保统计数据质量,维护统计数据信誉十分重要。本文深入分析了国外官方统计数据修订的主要原因,阐述了有关国际组织和国家统计数据修订的种类、范围、条件和程序,详细介绍了美国和澳大利亚官方统计数据修订的具体做法和经验,并得出了几点有益的启示,以期对研究制定我国统计数据修订制度提供借鉴。     

The Statistics Bill: the Treasury's view

The bill for the independence of the official statistical system received its final reading in the House of Lords on 20th July, just as this edition of Significance went to press. In this article, Angela Eagle , the new Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury, sets out the official view of what this legislation, and associated developments, should mean for statisticians and users of statistics. She looks in particular at how the reforms could raise statistical quality. (An article setting out the Royal Statistical Society's view of the legislation will appear in the next issue.)     

统计概念解析

本文从分析统计的本质属性出发,根据统计广泛性特点,归纳广义统计和狭义统计的概念,建立“统计概念总系”,力求能够包罗统计万象,体现统计全貌,使统计这一事物有一个总纲纪,为人们全面认识统计提供了一个新的视角。文中重点对政府统计纵向构成进行了分析和解读,解开人们在传统认识上的挽扣儿,这是正确理解政府统计构成的关键认识点,由此方能建立起统计概念体系。     

Calculating the total vote where the district magnitude is greater than one: A test of some algorithms using British local election data

Electoral analysis using aggregate data relies on the availability of accurate voting statistics. One vital piece of information, often missing from official electoral returns, particularly British local government elections, is the total number of valid ballot papers. This figure is essential for the calculation of electoral turnout. When voters have a single vote and official information about the number of ballot papers issued is missing, a figure for the total vote can still be derived. However, local elections in Britain frequently use a system of multiple-member wards, where voters have as many votes as there are seats to be filled. In such cases, calculating the total vote and, hence, the turnout does present a real problem. It cannot be assumed that all voters will use their full quota of votes or that voters will cast a ballot in favour of a single party. This paper develops and tests diff erent algorithms for calculating the total vote in such circumstances. We conclude that the accuracy of an algorithm is closely related to the structure of party competition. The findings of this paper have a number of important implications. First, the difficulties in calculating the turnout in multiple-member wards are identified. This will inform the debate about public participation in the local electoral process. Second, the method for deriving a figure for the total vote has an important bearing on a number of other statistics widely employed in electoral analysis.     

Modern statistics: the myth and the magic

Summary.  The paper is a personal exploration of the puzzling contradiction between the fundamental excitement of statistics and its poor public image. It begins with the historical foundations and proceeds through the role of applications and the dramatic impact of the computer in shaping the discipline. The mismatch between the reality of statistics and its public perception arises from a number of dichotomies, some of which are explored. In particular, although statistics is perhaps typically seen as an impersonal discipline, in some sense it is very personal, and many of its applications are aimed at providing unique benefit to individuals. This benefit depends on the creation of detailed data sets describing individuals, but the contrary view is that this represents an invasion of privacy. Some observations on statistical education are made, and issues which will affect the future health of the discipline are examined.     

No islands: charting a course for UK official statistics

Our system of official statistics in the UK is one of the most decentralised and elaborate in the world. As well as the Office for National Statistics (ONS), it spans several sizeable centres of expertise in Whitehall departments and in the three devolved administrations; and it embraces agencies such as the Higher Education Statistics Agency and the Information Centre for Health and Social Care, which sit at arms length from central departments. In 2008, legislation establishing a new Statistics Board, with oversight not just of the ONS but of all official figures produced by these bodies, will come fully into force. Richard Alldritt of the Statistics Commission and Richard Laux of the ONS identify some of the challenges facing the statistical system at this time of transition and suggests a course that the Statistics Board might want to steer.     

公共财政框架下浙江省高等教育资助问题研究

市场经济要求建立与公共财政制度相一致的高等教育资助体系,伴随着近年来学费的不断攀升以及社会贫富差距的扩大,需要资助的学生仍是一个庞大的群体。如何保证贫困学生顺利完成学业迫在眉睫。通过对浙江省在校大学生的抽样问卷调查,了解大学生家庭经济背景以及资助政策的开展情况,发现存在资助制度环境不完善,资助制度落实不甚理想的现象。因此提出强化政府在资助体系中的地位,明确政府在助学贷款中的财务责任,建立多渠道筹措助学贷款资金机制以及改善助学贷款环境等与公共财政制度相适应的教育财政制度的政策建议。     

Recent Monetary Policy and the Divisia Monetary Aggregates

This article explains the currently available capability to use formal statistical index number theory to measure the economy's money supply accurately. The new procedure is illustrated by exploring the tightness of money during the recent three-year period of “monetarist” Federal Reserve policy. When measured by a properly constructed statistical index number, the rate of growth of the money supply is found to have been lower and more volatile than when measured by the official simple sum monetary aggregates. As a result, targeting the simple sum aggregates may have induced a tighter and more volatile policy than was intended.     

二级统计体系在中国的可行性探讨

文章指出:中国政府统计体系的根本问题在于机构层层设置所导致的效率低下,而克服当前困境的根本出路在于减少机构层次。从长远看,由国家统计局和县级统计局构成的二级统计体系是中国政府统计体系改革的目标模式。     

2008SNA实施与国家统计发展战略

2008SNA保持了1993SNA的基本框架,关键变化集中体现在资产、金融部门、全球化及相关问题、一般政府和公共部门、非正规部门等五大领域。作为当今世界主流宏观经济统计的基本框架,2008SNA代表着国民经济核算体系发展的方向和目标,也为中国提供了一个迎头赶上国际核算最新发展的难得良机。中国应将研究、开发和执行2008SNA纳入国家统计发展战略规划的框架统筹安排,作为统计总体规划的一部分妥善组织、设计与实施。实施2008SNA应从目标、组织、编制和发布等四个阶段着手加强过程管理,采纳新的概念、分类、原则与方法,提高国民经济核算水平,加强中国统计能力建设。     

国家统计机构比较研究

 内容提要：本研究报告在广泛收集和研究国外相关资料的基础上，介绍了国家统计机构的一般组织结构、官方统计基本原则在各国的实施和经验。在此基础上，剖析了官方统计10项基本原则在我国统计工作中的实施情况，通过对照、检查，指出我国统计工作在很多方面已经达到国际通行的官方统计基本原则要求，在一些方面甚至处于国际领先水平。但是，在某些方面与国际标准相比，仍有一定的差距，需要进一步改进、提高。为此，提出了完善我国统计工作的初步建议。     

政府绩效评价：理论和方法再研究

当前我国学界有关政府绩效评价研究有两大理论缺陷;其一,没有将公共管理评价和公共行政评价区分开来;其二,无法评价“政府失灵”问题,并由此产生指标繁多,没有明确的评价域等方法论上的问题。文章在评析这些缺陷和问题的基础上,提出以社会成员的综合福利作为评价域,并围绕这一评价域构建出包括状态指标体系和公共管理效益指数在内的政府绩公共管理绩效评价研究框架。     

劳动力外出是否弱化了村级自筹公共投资

农民自筹资金或通过“集体劳动”的制度外公共产品供给方式在农村公共产品供给体系中一直充当重要角色,但农村劳动力大规模持续外出给这一模式带来了一定冲击。基于中国城乡劳动力流动调查数据,在引入工具变量法解决内生性问题后,文章检验了劳动力外出对村级自筹公共投资的影响。结果表明,劳动力外出对村级自筹公共投资产生显著负效应,采用面板估计、公共投资项目数和分类公共投资规模进行的稳健性检验也进一步支持了这一结论。而强化财政支持力度和鼓励公共产品的制度外供给可能是未来政策创新的重要方向。     

中国国库统计改革

国库统计是政府对国民经济进行宏观管理，特别是制定相互协调的财政政策和货币金融政策的基本依据。近年来，随着人民银行体制与财政体制改革的深化，国库改革问题开始受到学术界与实际部门的重视，国库统计改革也相应被关注。而对中国国库统计问题的思考，必须置于转轨经济制度变革的背景下进行。从这个意义上讲，厘清国库统计制度的变迁，准确把握所面临的新的挑战，冷静审视国库统计的地位，并进一步明确国库统计改革的基本取向就显得非常迫切而且十分重要。