Assessing the Carrying Capacity of the Florida Keys

In 1996, the State of Florida mandated a study of the Florida Keys, the most populated portion of Monroe County, explicitly calling for a carrying capacity analysis to function as a basis for determining building permit allocation in the future. The Florida Keys Carrying Capacity Study, conducted by the State of Florida and the US Army Corps of Engineers, has encountered challenges in trying to convert the vague carrying capacity concept into a functional, quantitative method. Difficulties in responding to external peer review advice suggests that institutional constraints are hindering re-direction of the study.     

Estimating Recent Local Impacts of Sea-Level Rise on Current Real-Estate Losses: A Housing Market Case Study in Miami-Dade,Florida

Sea-Level Rise (SLR) Projections from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers (USACE) indicate increasing, and imminent, risk to coastal communities from tidal flooding and hurricane storm surge. Building on recent research related to the potential demographic impacts of such changes (Hauer et al. 2016, in Nat Clim Chang 3:802–806, 2017; Neumann et al. 2015; Curtis and Schneider in Popul Environ 33:28–54, 2011), localized flooding projections in the Miami Beach area (Wdowinski et al. in Ocean Coast Manag 126:1–8, 2016) and projected economic losses associated with this rise in projected SLR (Fu et al. Ocean Coast Manag 133:11–17, 2016); this research investigates the accrued current cost, in terms of real-estate dollars lost, due to recurrent tidal flooding and projected increases of flooding in Miami-Dade County. Most directly related to this line of research, Keenan et al. (2018) have recently produced results indicating that Climate Gentrification is taking place in Miami, FL with higher elevations in flood prone areas appreciating at a higher rate. In that vein of thinking, we seek to answer a question posed by such research: What is the actual accrued loss to sea-level rise over the recent past? To answer this question, we replicate well-documented estimation methods by combining publicly available sea-level rise projections, tide gauge trends, and property lot elevation data to identify areas regularly at risk of flooding. Combining recent patterns of flooding inundation with future forecasts, we find that properties projected to be inundated with tidal flooding in 2032 have lost $3.08 each year on each square foot of living area, and properties near roads that will be inundated with tidal flooding in 2032 have lost $3.71 each year on each square foot of living area. These effects total over $465 million in lost real-estate market value between 2005 and 2016 in the Miami-Dade area.     

Admission of Puerto Rico to the Union of States: Unityis the issue

Proposed Congressional legislation would allow the status of Puerto Rico—as an associated Commonwealth, an independent country, or a state of the United States—to be decided by popular plebiscite in Puerto Rico. The proposed legislation is silent on language policy, an issue of concern to many Americans and which has been much discussed in Puerto Rico. In addition to the divisiveness inherent in bilingualism, the history of the island's relations with the United States raises concern that statehood might lead to a separatist backlash possibly accompanied by violent unrest. The authors urge wider debate and a more deliberate approach to union: one that does not attempt to displace the Spanish tradition but one which protects the traditional language unity of the United States.The authors are public policy analysts who have worked extensively on issues relating to the status of English in the United States. The views expressed in this article are their own, and do not necessarily reflect those of any group or constituency.     

CDC on Vaccines and Children's Health: United States 1900–98

During the twentieth century, the health and life expectancy of persons residing in the United States—as in most other countries of the globe—have improved greatly. (For a discussion of some aspects of that improvement, see the article in this issue by Kevin White assessing the effects of changes in cardiovascular and tuberculosis mortality in the United States since 1900.) A considerable share of this change is attributable to advances in public health. To highlight these advances the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (an agency of the US Department of Health and Human Services) is issuing a series of reports profiling ten great public health achievements in the United States during the present century. The first of these reports discusses vaccination: “Impact of vaccines universally recommended for children—United States, 1900–1998,” MMWR 48 (12), 2 April 1999. It is reproduced below in full. The improvements chronicled in the report are especially great with respect to morbidity. In many developing countries mortality resulting from vaccine-preventable causes is, however, still very high. Recent international initiatives, involving UN agencies, bilateral aid agencies, foundations, and the vaccine industry, aim at accelerating the outreach of immunization in developing countries. A meeting discussing an expanded program of vaccination (Bellagio, March 1999) estimated that global immunization, at a cost of approximately $3 billion per year, could save some 40 million lives over the next ten years.     

Risk Exposure in Early Life and Mortality at Older Ages: Evidence from Union Army Veterans

This study examines the relation between risk exposures in early life and hazard of mortality among 11,978 Union Army veterans aged 50 and over in 1900. Veterans' risk exposures prior to enlistment—as approximated by birth season, country of birth, residential region, city size, and height at enlistment—significantly influenced their chance of survival after 1900. These effects are robust irrespective of whether socioeconomic well‐being in 1900 has been taken into account; however, they are sensitive to the particular age periods selected for survival analysis. Whereas some of the effects such as being born in Ireland and coming from large cities became apparent in the first decade after 1900 and then dissipated over time, the effects of birth season, being born in Germany, residential region in the United States, and height at enlistment were more salient in the post‐1910 periods. Height at enlistment shows a positive association with risk of mortality in the post‐1910 periods. Compared to corresponding findings from more recent cohorts, the exceptional robustness of the effects of risk exposures prior to enlistment on old‐age mortality among the veterans highlights the harshness of living conditions early in their lives.     

The costs of immigration to taxpayers: Toward a uniform accounting framework

Large scale immigration to the United States and a sluggish national economy have brought to the forefront of the current immigration policy debate, the question of whether immigrants fully pay—in the form of taxes—for the public services they use. Recent estimates of the costs of immigration differ so widely that they have confused rather than enlightened that debate. This paper argues that a uniform accounting framework must be agreed to if future studies are to provide credible and reliable estimates of costs and benefits upon which immigration policy can be formulated. The key conceptual, factual, and accounting issues that are to be addressed for the development of such a framework are outlined.     

The ideology of population control in the UN draft plan for Cairo

This paper examines the influence of population control ideology on the draft plan for the UN Cairo Conference on Population and Development. It is argued that this draft plan can only be fully understood in the context of the recent history of the population control movement and of the empirical reality of population control in particular countries. The paper focuses on the origins of the ideology of population control in the eugenics movement initially, and more recently in organisations such as International Planned Parenthood Federation. The role of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), in promoting an incremental approach towards the wider acceptance of population control since the first intergovernmental conference on population in Bucharest in 1974, is outlined. Despite the serious loss of credibility for the UN, through the association of the UNFPA with the Chinese population control programme — the most coercive programme of its type in history — the UN in the draft plan for Cairo continues to promote the ideology of population control. This paper argues for the need to develop a more positive model of development, which acknowledges the complementarity between the lack of development of poorer countries and their potential for significant progress, and the overdevelopment of industrialised regions, whose future growth is increasingly based on intense competition for shrinking markets.This article is based on a paper, presented to the International Geographical Union Congress at Prague, 21–27 August 1994.     

Two Thomases: Dublin Castle and The Quality of Life in Victorian Ireland

Administration of Ireland in the nineteenth century was carried out, principally, by three senior officials who were appointed by the current Prime Minister in London, and who served at his pleasure. There were two periods, 1835–1840, and 1853–1869, when Ireland was served by two outstanding men, Thomas Drummond and Thomas Larcom. Both men were trained as military engineers, and were well acquainted by both their membership in the Corps of Royal Engineers and by their shared participation in some projects of the civil government. Their paths to high office were different; Drummond distinguished himself by his skill at technology, and Larcom achieved wide recognition through his imaginative service in the mapping of Ireland. In their periods of service, these two Sappers further distinguished themselves by the quality and selflessness of their of their work. Improvement of quality in the life of the Irish people is documented by presentation of social indicators data from the period 1831–1871.     

Population growth and road construction: Looking to traditional indigenous ways

Population growth is linked to road building which is in turn unfortunately linked to what is commonly called sustainable development. The biggest implication of late is that the United Nations' International Conference on Population and Development—as it focused so heavily on feminist agendas, education and economic advancement—did not address a major cause of population growth.Overpopulation in some northern nations, notably the United States, is overlooked due to official neglect of the scientific measurement of carrying capacity, and due to political considerations in discussing immigration even as an environmental issue or component of overpopulation.Traditional indigenous peoples' population sizes and such societies' ethic toward their land are indicated as models of sustainability.     

Cross-National Variation in Violent Crime Rates: Race, r-K Theory, and Income

Rushton's theory of r-K race differences was examined in relation to the rate of murder, rape, and serious assault per 100,000 population and Gross Domestic Product per Person for 74 countries from the 1993–1996 International Crime Statistics published by INTERPOL and the 1999 CIA World Fact Book. Each country was assigned to one of the three macro-races East Asian, European, and African. The results corroborated earlier findings that violent crime is lowest in East Asian countries, intermediate in European countries, and highest in African and in Black Caribbean countries. The median number of violent crimes per 100,000 population were: 7 East Asian countries—34; 45 European countries—42; and 22 African and Black Caribbean countries—149, respectively. The median Gross Domestic Product per Person was highest in East Asian countries ($12,600), intermediate in European countries ($7,400), and lowest in African and Black Caribbean countries ($1,900). Across the three population groups there was an ecological correlation of –.96 between crime and wealth (wealthier countries had less crime). Finer-grained analyses, however, found that while wealth was negatively related to crime across European or East Asian countries, it was positively related to crime for the African and Black Caribbean countries (i.e., the wealthier an African or Black Caribbean country, the greater its rate of violent crime). Future research needs to examine genetic factors in addition to cultural factors as well as their interactions.     

Same-Sex Marriage and Language Appropriation Practices of Lesbians

ABSTRACT

Legal marriage has vacillated between being a private agreement made by two individuals and an agreement of social significance under the state’s control (Nokov, 2008; Smart, 2013). Presently, we are without a definition of marriage that serves our diverse population. The discourse surrounding same-sex marriage in the United States is a topic of interest, as explicit attention to communication in reference to these relationships has rarely been documented (Land & Kitzinger, 2005; Richman, 2014). Using a qualitative framework and semistructured interviews, this study investigated the relationship between marriage equality and its impact on language appropriation for 20 lesbians in varying parts of the United States. Analysis employing grounded theory and constant comparative method indicated that for this sample, access to legal marriage did not serve as a determinant for the adoption of language traditionally associated with marriage. Additionally, it indicated that marriage equality hinges on more than the support of the law.     

Population and the energy problem

When energy is scarce or expensive, people can suffer material deprivation and economic hardship. When it is obtained in ways that fail to minimize environmental and political costs, these too can threaten human wellbeing in fundamental and pervasive ways. The energy problem today combines these syndromes: much of the world's population has too little energy to meet basic human needs; the monetary costs of energy are rising nearly everywhere; the environmental impacts of energy supply are growing and already dominant contributors to local, regional, and global environmental problems (including air pollution, water pollution, ocean pollution, and climate change); and the sociopolitical risks of energy supply (above all the danger of conflict over oil and the links between nuclear energy and nuclear weapons) are growing too. This predicament has many causes, but predominant among them are the nearly 20-fold increase in world energy use since 1850 and the cumulative depletion of the most convenient oil and gas deposits that this growth has entailed, resulting in increasing resort to costlier and/or environmentally more disruptive energy sources. The growth of world population in this period was responsible for 52% of the energy growth, while growth in per capita energy use was responsible for 48% (excluding causal connections between population and energy use per capita). In the United States in the same period, population growth accounted for 66% of the 36-fold increase in energy use. In the late 1980s, population growth was still accounting for a third of energy growth both in the United States and worldwide. Coping with global energy problems will require greatly increased investment in improving the efficiency of energy enduse and in reducing the environmental impacts of contemporary energy technologies, and it will require financing a transition over the next several decades to a set of more sustainable (but probably also more expensive) energy sources. The difficulty of implementing these measures will be greatest by far in the developing countries, not least because of their high rates of population growth and the attendant extra pressures on economic and managerial resources. If efficiency improvements permit delivering the high standard of living to which the world aspires based on a per capita rate of energy use as low as 3 kilowatts—about a quarter of the current U.S. figure—then a world population stabilized at 10 billion people would be using energy at a rate of 30 terawatts, and a population of 14 billion would imply 42 terawatts (compare 13.2 terawatts in 1990). Delivering even the lower figure at tolerable monetary and environmental costs will be difficult; each additional billion people added to the world population will compound these difficulties and increase energy's costs, making everyone poorer.Presented at the Symposium on Population and Scarcity: The Forgotten Dimensions.     

Guestworker programs: Evidence from Europe and the United States and some implications for U.S. policy

Mounting concern in the United States over increased illegal migration from Mexico during the past decade has generated a heated policy debate and led to a number of proposals as to how the U.S. government should deal with the problem. Among these has been a call for a temporary worker program similar to the U.S.-sponsored Bracero Program (1942–1964) in which over 4 million Mexican workers were recruited to perform temporary agricultural labor in the southwestern United States. This article considers the implications of such a program by examining the social and economic effects of previous guestworker programs in the United States and western Europe from the perspective of both sending and receiving societies. Particular attention is paid to the efficacy of these programs in promoting temporary as opposed to long-term immigration of foreign workers as well as their developmental impact on sending countries.Now at 2405 Rayburn House Office Building, U.S. House of Representatives, Washington DC 20515.     

Age at marriage and educational attainment in the United States

Substantial declines in age at marriage for both sexes have been observed over the past two decades in a number of western countries.¹ Data for the United States, using median ages, suggest that the decline since 1940 has been as great as that occurring during the preceding 50 years (Table I).     

The seasonality of births in Canada: A comparison with the northern United States

This paper presents evidence that there are substantial differences in the seasonal birth patterns of Canada and the northern United States. The seasonal birth pattern in Canada is characterized by a birth peak in April–May, and a trough in December–January. The birth pattern in the northern U.S. is characterized by a trough in April–May, and a peak in August–September. The influence of climate on the birth patterns is explored in an attempt to explain the discrepancies. In both Canada and the United States, there is an inverse relationship between temperature and conceptions during the summer months. The study concludes that variation in temperature alone cannot explain the discrepancy between the birth patterns of southern Canada and the northern United States.     

Demographic implications of reproductive technologies

Medical advances in the infertility field are coming at a rapid pace. This paper examines four areas of demography that are being affected by the delivery of infertility services in the United States, or have the potential to be affected. The greatest effects are currently seen in the rapid increase in the rate of multiple deliveries, with smaller effects evident in delayed childbearing. To date the sex ratio at birth in the United States has not been affected by reproductive technologies. The experience from Asian countries such as Korea and China indicates that massive societal change coupled with reproductive technologies could bring about changes in the sex ratio at birth in the United States. The last area examined is the intergenerational transmission of infertility which to date has not been largely affected by reproductive technologies, but has the potential to affect a larger proportion of the population.     

Spatial and temporal residential density patterns from 1940 to 2000 in and around the Northern Forest of the Northeastern United States

Over the past 60 years, housing growth has outpaced population growth in the United States. Conservationists are concerned about the far-reaching environmental impacts of housing development, particularly in rural areas. We use clustering analysis to examine the pattern and distribution of housing development since 1940 in and around the Northern Forest, a heavily forested region with high amenity and recreation use in the Northeastern United States. We find that both proximity to urban areas and an abundance of natural amenities are associated with housing growth at the neighborhood level in this region. In the 1970s, counterurbanization led to higher rates of growth across rural areas. The Northern Forest now has extensive interface between forest vegetation and residential development, which has the potential to profoundly alter the ecological and social benefits of these forests.     

More evidence on smoke detector effectiveness and the value of saving a life

Economic models of the fire fatality rate give estimates of smoke detector effectiveness. These estimates are much smaller than those generally accepted. Reasonable interpretation of these estimates, combined with the cost of a smoke detector and the risk of a fire death, places the smoke detector-based value of life saving in a range of $ 1.41 to $ 2.487 million 1986 dollars. The more generally accepted results of other studies of the value of life saving fall in a range of $ 1.6 to $ 8.5 million 1986 dollars. Smoke detector market data, along with effectiveness estimates from economic models, may provide a unique opportunity to estimate the value of life saving.Partial funding for this project was made available by the Kellogg Foundation through a grant to the Missouri Youth Initiative Program. An earlier version of this paper was presented as a seminar paper at the Center for Fire Research, National Institute of Standards and Technology, United States Department of Commerce, Gaithersburg, Maryland, May 8, 1990. Results were also reported at the session on Value of Life Saving: Narrowing the Range, Southern Economic Association, November 1990, New Orleans.     

Estimating the approximate size of the illegal alien population in the united states by the comparative trend analysis of age-specific death rates

This paper presents the results of an attempt to determine, through the use of demographic analysis, the approximate magnitude of the resident illegal alien population in the United States. The method described is the comparative analysis of trends in age-specific death rates in the United States and selected States, 1950 to 1975. The procedure depends on two assumptions: (a) that few or no illegal aliens are included in decennial census counts or current population estimates; and (b) that the reported statistics on deaths include deaths to all or nearly all illegal aliens. If the illegal alien population has increased by several million since 1970, then death rates in geographic areas where illegal aliens are most concentrated should show substantial excesses over the rates for the remainder of the country. A roughly similar downward trend in the death rates of all age groups since 1970 in all areas of the United States is apparent and hence does not support the view that many millions of illegal residents (perhaps over 6 million) are living here. However, the finding of a persistent deviation in the death rate trend for 10 selected States since 1960 for whites males, ages 20 to 44, and for no other group, suggests that the deaths of illegal aliens are being recorded in our vital statistics system. A range of estimates of the illegal alien population based on this analysis is presented and compared with the results of other studies.     

Immigrant suicide in Australia,Canada, England and Wales,and the United States

Factors influencing the suicide rates of numerous immigrants in groups in Australia, Canada, England and Wales, and the United States during the period 1959–73 were examined. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated for the origin, immigrant and destination native-born populations using the Canadian native-born age-sex-specific suicide rates as the standard. For males, the foreign-born in England and Wales had the lowest suicide rates and the foreign-born in the United States the highest. For females the variation was smaller, with immigrants in the United States having the lowest rates, and those in Australia the highest. Agespecific suicide rates indicated that relative to the native-born, foreign-born elderly had substantially elevated risks of suicide.