Trajectories of loneliness during COVID-19 pandemic and associations with mental health and substance use

We examined patterns of longitudinal trajectories of loneliness during the COVID-19 pandemic using six time points (January 2020 [pre-pandemic] to March/April 2021) and whether trajectories were associated with psychological distress (depression/anxiety) and substance use (alcohol/cannabis) outcomes in Spring 2021. Participants were 644 young adults who completed online assessments. Outcomes were regressed on most-likely loneliness trajectory adjusting for pre-pandemic measures. Three loneliness trajectories varied from consistently lower to consistently higher. Pre-pandemic social support was associated with lower odds of a higher loneliness trajectory. Higher loneliness trajectories were associated with greater odds of past-month cannabis use compared to Low trajectories, but not significantly associated with depression, anxiety, or alcohol use in Spring 2021. Interventions addressing co-occurring loneliness and cannabis use are needed.     

Predicting Well‐Being and Internalizing Symptoms in Late Adolescence From Trajectories of Externalizing Behavior Starting in Infancy

This study aimed to examine the long‐term prediction of well‐being and internalizing symptoms from trajectories of externalizing behavior problems in 921 children from a population‐based sample. We found that a high stable trajectory of externalizing behavior from infancy (age 1.5) to mid‐adolescence (age 14.5) predicted lower scores on life satisfaction and flourishing for both girls and boys (age 18.5). The high stable trajectory also predicted higher levels of depressive symptoms in boys and anxiety symptoms in girls (age 18.5). The findings are noteworthy as they document how a person‐oriented study of externalizing behavior problems starting in infancy can predict well‐being and internalizing in late adolescence. The findings underline the importance of early health promotion and problem intervention efforts.     

Infants' Evolving Representations of Object Motion During Occlusion: A Longitudinal Study of 6‐ to 12‐Month‐Old Infants

Infants' ability to track temporarily occluded objects that moved on circular trajectories was investigated in 20 infants using a longitudinal design. They were first seen at 6 months and then every 2nd month until the end of their 1st year. Infants were presented with occlusion events covering 20% of the target's trajectory (effective occlusion interval ranged from 500–4,000 msec). Gaze was measured using an ASL 504 infrared eye‐tracking system. Results effectively demonstrate that infants from 6 months of age can represent the spatiotemporal dynamics of occluded objects. Infants at all ages tested were able to predict, under certain conditions, when and where the object would reappear after occlusion. They moved gaze accurately to the position where the object was going to reappear and scaled their timing to the current occlusion duration. The average rate of predictive gaze crossings increased with occlusion duration. These results are discussed as a 2‐factor process. Successful predictions are dependent on strong representations, themselves dependent on the richness of information available during encoding and graded representations.     

The Proxy Effect: Gender and Gambling Problem Trajectories of Iowa Gambling Treatment Program Participants

Recent research has found that men and women who end up in gambling treatment tend to follow different trajectories to that endpoint: women generally begin gambling later in life, but progress to problems and seek treatment more quickly. With women’s prevalence rates of gambling and disordered gambling increasing, it has become important to identify the causes and consequences of these trajectory differences. The current study used a sample of 2,256 gamblers enrolled in the Iowa Gambling Treatment Program to examine the relationship of gender and other demographic, economic and health-related (i.e., psychosocial) factors to empirically-identified gambling problem trajectories. The results indicated that gender made a statistically significant contribution to the prediction of trajectory, but increased predictive accuracy by only 1–2% beyond a model with psychosocial predictors. Gender’s contribution was limited to its relationship to age of initiation; men and women’s problem progression did not differ meaningfully once age of gambling initiation was taken into account. Gender is a unique contributor to the development of gambling problems among treatment seekers, but it is only one small part of the myriad psychosocial characteristics that influence gambling problem development.

Estimating Pain and Disability in Virtual Patients with Low Back Pain: The Contribution of Nonverbal Behaviors

It is well recognized that chronic low back pain (cLBP) can be estimated from nonverbal pain behaviors. However, only a few studies examined how clinicians rely on those when estimating specific outcomes, such as pain intensity and pain disability. Therefore, the present study examines (1) if facial expressions and guarding behaviors (including speed of the movement and lifting strategy) contribute to the prediction of pain intensity and disability in patients with cLBP; and (2) if these pain behaviors have been given the same importance according to the outcome. Twenty-five experienced clinicians and thirty-one novice clinicians were asked to estimate low back pain intensity and disability from a realistic virtual character performing a lifting lowering task. The studied pain behaviors were manipulated across different conditions. Pain intensity and disability were judged higher when the character moved more slowly and displayed painful facial expression. Speed of the movement and facial expressions explained a greater portion of variance when related to pain intensity assessment than to pain disability assessment. Results also showed a significant interaction between the lifting strategy, the speed of the movement and facial expressions, but only when estimating the character’s pain-related intensity. Novice clinicians rated pain disability higher than experienced clinicians did. Although pain-related concepts, pain intensity and related disability are not estimated through the same pain behaviors by clinicians. Clinical experience does not contribute to clinical judgments through the use of nonverbal pain behaviors when estimating pain outcomes but contributes to pain disability rating overall.     

A study of the kinematics of ingress and egress of upright and recumbent seats

Research has been done on the maximum reach and ingress/egress of upright seats. However, research on recumbent seats and comparisons between recumbent and upright seats is limited. By using an eight-camera Vicon motion capture system and C-motion Visual 3D modeling software, this research compared the ingress/egress joint kinematics and maximal planar reach of an upright seat with a recumbent seat. Mean range of motion and mean peak angle for each ingress/egress task were determined and the values for the upright seat were compared to the values for the recumbent seat. For each reach task, three extreme points were extracted and compared between the upright and recumbent seat. Seat orientation was found to have a statistically significant effect on the range of motion of several joints during the ingress/egress tasks, as well as one of the extreme points during the reaching tasks.     

Did Divorces Decline After the Oklahoma City Bombing?

The Oklahoma City bombing in April 1995 was an act of terrorism that had many potential influences on the city and state, including influences on families. We analyzed divorce data from 1985 to 2000 for all 77 counties in Oklahoma to assess the divorce response to the Oklahoma City bombing. Our prediction was that divorce rates in Oklahoma would decrease in response to the bombing, a prediction derived from two different theoretical orientations, terror management theory and attachment theory. We test this prediction in the context of two relatively powerful quasi‐experimental designs, an interrupted time series design, and a nonequivalent control group design. We analyze the time series data with polynomial regression. Results suggested that there were lower observed divorce rates following the Oklahoma City bombing than the prevailing 10‐year cubic divorce trend would have predicted, with the effect dampening over time. We analyzed the nonequivalent control group design using an analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) linear model to compare counties in and around Oklahoma City to those farther away, and to compare metropolitan to nonmetropolitan counties in Oklahoma. In each case, divorces were lower in the predicted directions.     

Coming of age in African American English: A longitudinal study1

This study examines trajectories of development in the use of African American English (AAE) for 32 speakers through the first 17 years of their lives based on a unique, longitudinal database. Temporal data points in the analysis include 48 months, Grade 1 (about age 6), Grade 4 (about age 9), Grade 6 (about age 11), Grade 8 (about age 13), and Grade 10 (about age 15). Complementary methods of analysis for assessing AAE include a token‐based Dialect Density Measure (DDM), a type‐based vernacular diversity index, and frequency‐based variation analysis. The study reveals different trajectories and peak periods for the use of AAE, including a ‘roller coaster’ and a curvilinear trajectory; at the same time, there is a common dip among speakers in the overall use of vernacular AAE from Grade 1 through Grade 4. Examination of a selective set of demographic and self‐regard measures shows no significant differences for gender, school racial density, racial peer contacts, and measures of Afro‐centrality, but does show a significant correlation between mothers’ and child use of AAE as well as age/grade.     

AN ANALYSIS OF THE ACCURACY OF "TRIAL HEAT" POLLS DURING THE 1992 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

There is little systematic research on the multitude of factorsthat influence the accuracy of poll results. This article examinessix methodological factors directly under the survey researcher'scontrol and two exogenous factors concerning the nature of publicopinion as sources of survey error. Data for this study comefrom 56 "trial heat" polls conducted during the last month ofthe 1992 presidential election. The most important variablesinfluencing survey accuracy were the number of days a poll isin the field, which increased total accuracy one-half of a percentagepoint per day; conducting interviews only on weekdays (and thusonly during evening hours), which reduced overall accuracy ratesby more than 1 percentage point; and conducting a "tracking"poll, which increased accuracy by about 1.5 points. Sample sizewas not related to accuracy rates. Results also indicated thatsampling frames of "likely voters" (relative to "registeredvoters") tended to overestimate support for George Bush andunderestimate support for Ross Perot, that interviewing onlyon weekdays led to overestimates of support for Bush, and thatstrict methods of defining a respondent as "supporting" a candidatehurt the two newcomers, Perot and Bill Clinton, more than Bush.In light of these data it is recommended that the common practiceof reporting "margins of error" based solely on sample sizesbe abandoned as misleading and replaced by a more empiricallyjustifiable measure based more on response rates.     

Parental Child‐Rearing Conflicts Through Adolescence: Trajectories and Associations With Child Characteristics and Externalizing Patterns

Research on longitudinal interparental conflict patterns and offspring development is scarce. The population‐based TOPP study (N = 459) was used to investigate (1) child‐rearing conflict trajectories through four time points during childhood and adolescence (ages 8–16), and (2) associations between conflict trajectories and child characteristics (i.e., birth order, gender, externalizing patterns from early childhood). Latent profile analysis identified six distinct trajectories. Conflict levels decreased for most respondents over the adolescent offspring period, but offspring's birth order and externalizing problems were related to less typical trajectories and higher levels of conflict. Onset of externalizing problems was of additional importance for the course of parental child‐rearing conflicts. The results highlight the perception of the whole family as an interwoven system.     

Incorporating children's lives into a life course perspective on stress and mental health

Emerging themes in demography, developmental medicine, and psychiatry suggest that a comprehensive understanding of mental health across the life course requires that we incorporate the lives of children into our research. If we can learn more about the ways in which the stress process unfolds for children, we will gain important insights into the factors that influence initial set points of trajectories of mental health over the life course. This will simultaneously extend the scope of the stress process paradigm and elaborate the life course perspective on mental health. Incorporating children's lives into the sociology of mental health will also extend the intellectual influence of the discipline on sociomedical and biomedical research on mental illness. I contend that sociology's greatest promise in understanding trajectories of mental health across the life course lies in a systematic analysis of the social and social-psychological conditions of children, the stressful experiences that arise out of these conditions, and the processes that mediate and moderate the stress process in childhood. In this regard, there are three major issues that sociologists could begin to address: (1) the identification of structural and institutional factors that pattern children's exposure to stress; (2) the construction of a stress universe for children; and (3) the identification of key elements of the life course perspective that may set or alter trajectories of mental health in childhood and adolescence.     

Dynamic Family System Trajectories From Pregnancy to Child's First Year

Family systems reorganize during transitional periods, such as the birth of a new child. Longitudinal research, however, on family dynamics during the transition to parenthood is lacking. Accordingly, the authors aimed to identify family system trajectories from pregnancy to the child's first birthday and to examine their contextual predictors. Both parents (N = 702) reported autonomy and intimacy in marital (wife‐to‐husband, husband‐to‐wife) and parenting (mother‐to‐child, father‐to‐child) relations during pregnancy and at child's ages of 2 months and 12 months. Finite mixture modeling revealed 7 unique family system trajectories: (a) Cohesive (35%), (b) Disengaged (5%), (c) Enmeshed Declining (6%), (d) Enmeshed Quadratic (5%), (e) Authoritarian (14%), (f) Escalating Crisis (4%), and (g) Discrepant (15%) families. Parental education in interaction with duration of partnership and parity predicted family trajectory membership. The study demonstrates how different family types reorganize during the transition to parenthood; this includes decline, growth, and stability in autonomy and intimacy.     

As Good as it Gets? A Life Course Perspective on Marital Quality

Marital relationships, like individuals, follow a developmental trajectory over time with ups and downs and gains and losses. We work from a life course perspective and use growth curve analysis to look at trajectories of change in marital quality over time. Although the tendency is for marital quality to decline over time, some groups begin with much higher levels of marital quality than others. Moreover, a number of life course and contextual factors can accelerate or slow this path of change. Our findings point to the importance of considering the multi-dimensionality of time (e.g., age, marital duration, the passage of years) as well as family transitions (e.g., having children, emptying or refilling the nest) in creating the meanings and experiences of marriage over time.     

The agricultural ethics of biofuels: climate ethics and mitigation arguments

An environmental, climate mitigation rationale for research and development (R&D) on liquid transportation fuels derived from plants emerged among many scientists and engineers during the last decade. However, between 2006 and 2010, this climate ethic for pursuing biofuel became politically entangled and conceptually confused with rationales for encouraging greater use of plant-based ethanol that were both unconnected to climate ethics and potentially in conflict with the value-commitments providing a mitigation-oriented reason to promote and develop new and expanded sources of biofuel. I argue that the conceptual construct of technological trajectories provides a fecund approach to the ethical evaluation of R&D strategies in the case of plant-based liquid transportation fuels. The idea of a trajectory has a current use in the literature of science studies and aptly summarizes a number of themes that are critical to the evaluation of tools and techniques whose future shape, design, applications and potential consequences are necessarily somewhat speculative. In the case of biofuels, it is the imagined future trajectory that provides the basis for resistance to an emerging technology, rather than the present-day technical capabilities and the unexpected consequences of biofuel development.     

Changes in human cervical and lumbar spine curves while bicycling with different handlebar heights

Cycling is a daily activity that needs a high demand of human-bicycle fitness. However, studies into the fitness or ergonomic aspects are very little. In this study, the simulated 20 min bicycling test were performed by 26 male participants under 5 handle height conditions. Body joint angles and external cervical/lumbar spine lordosis were measured at the initial and cycling after 20 min. Results show that different handle heights did cause various trunk inclinations. Trunk inclination was negatively and positively correlated with lumbosacral angle (r = -0.620, p < 0.001) and cervical angle (r = 0.510, p < 0.001), respectively. In this study, regression models were also developed to predict the internal cervical and lumbar spine movements by external trunk inclination and head extension, respectively. The explanatory abilities for the variance of the models were 67.2% for LSA and 82.8% for CE prediction. This can be used to understand the cyclist's spine movements while field study of bicycling.     

Early Segmentation Abilities in Preterm Infants

Infants born preterm have higher risks of developing linguistic deficits. Considering that the ability to segment words from fluent speech is crucial for lexical acquisition, Experiment 1 tested the ability of healthy extremely‐to‐late preterm infants to segment monosyllabic words at 6 months of postnatal age. Results establish basic segmentation skills in these infants. While we failed to find an effect of the degree of prematurity, this issue will need further exploration. Future studies will also have to specify the scope of these early segmentation skills, both in terms of the types of words segmented, the cues used to do so, and in terms of possible differences in performance between subgroups of preterm infants (e.g., based on gestational age or medical risks). Lastly, given that the preterm infants tested had a mean maturational age of 4 months, Experiment 2 explored monosyllabic segmentation in full‐term 4‐month olds. Infants succeeded at the task, providing the earliest developmental evidence of word segmentation in full‐term infants. These findings better specify the early trajectory of segmentation abilities in both full‐term and healthy, low‐risk preterm infants and support the proposal that prematurity might have a differential effect on the early acquisition of various linguistic levels.     

GPS cell phone tracking in the Greater Tokyo Area: A field test on raccoon dogs

We tested instantaneous GPS cell phone telemetry to record movement data of raccoon dogs (Nyctereutes procyonoides) in Abiko city, Greater Tokyo, Japan. We monitored the changes in locations of six raccoon dogs in various land use types such as roads, golf courses, towns, rice and crop paddies, and forest. Data were downloaded instantaneously using cell phone networks and the internet, remotely to a desktop computer. We obtained 410 location points and the maximum duration of individual tracking was 144 hours. The success rate of GPS positioning varied among individuals. On average, the success rate of three raccoon dogs in a relatively open area was 98% and that of three raccoon dogs in a mosaic area was 70%. In total, 372 of the data points (91 % of all downloaded data) with reliable accuracy were used to analyze movement speed during the day time as well as habitat use of the raccoon dogs, revealing various spatial and temporal behavioral patterns. Human activities were the likely cause of characteristic behaviors in tall weed patches and golf courses, and daily patterns of movement. Our results indicate the potential utility of GPS cell phone tracking to efficiently monitor and manage wildlife in changing urban environments.     

Validity of the microsoft kinect system in assessment of compensatory stepping behavior during standing and treadmill walking

Background

Rapid compensatory stepping plays an important role in preventing falls when balance is lost; however, these responses cannot be accurately quantified in the clinic. The Microsoft Kinect? system provides real-time anatomical landmark position data in three dimensions (3D), which may bridge this gap.

Methods

Compensatory stepping reactions were evoked in 8 young adults by a sudden platform horizontal motion on which the subject stood or walked on a treadmill. The movements were recorded with both a 3D-APAS motion capture and Microsoft Kinect? systems. The outcome measures consisted of compensatory step times (milliseconds) and length (centimeters). The average values of two standing and walking trials for Microsoft Kinect? and the 3D-APAS systems were compared using t-test, Pearson’s correlation, Altman-bland plots, and the average difference of root mean square error (RMSE) of joint position.

Results

The Microsoft Kinect? had high correlations for the compensatory step times (r?=?0.75–0.78, p?=?0.04) during standing and moderate correlations for walking (r?=?0.53–0.63, p?=?0.05). The step length, however had a very high correlations for both standing and walking (r?>?0.97, p?=?0.01). The RMSE showed acceptable differences during the perturbation trials with smallest relative error in anterior-posterior direction (2-3%) and the highest in the vertical direction (11–13%). No systematic bias were evident in the Bland and Altman graphs.

Conclusions

The Microsoft Kinect? system provides comparable data to a video-based 3D motion analysis system when assessing step length and less accurate but still clinically acceptable for step times during balance recovery when balance is lost and fall is initiated.

     

Consumer behavior and superstradom

In this paper, we view the superstar phenomenon as an implication of probabilistic mechanisms by which individuals are selected for the production of artistic products (e.g., motion pictures and operas). Specifically, this study employs a stochastic model of G. Udny Yule and Herbert A. Simon as probability mechanisms through which individuals are chosen by casting directors for their appearance in motion pictures, and predicts that movie appearances will be concentrated among a few lucky individuals. We find that empirical data shows remarkable conformity to the prediction of our model. In all genres of motion pictures, we find that the probability distribution implied by the stochastic model explains more tha 97% of the cross-sectional distribution of movie appearances by individuals. Our results support the notion that consumers (i.e., casting directors) minimize search cost by choosing the most popular movie stars.     

Carer perspectives of factors affecting placement trajectories of children in out-of-home care

Carers are at the frontline working with children in the care of the child protection system. This paper reports carer's views about key factors influencing the placement trajectories of children and young people living in out-of-home care in Queensland, Australia. The study sample included 21 foster and kinship carers with a minimum two-year experience in the carer role. Study data were from semi-structured telephone interviews in which carers shared their experiences of the factors impacting upon placement stability and placement movement. Carers' responses were analysed thematically. Data analysis yielded an overarching theme regarding placement trajectory: Carer engagement, and its three sub-themes; with the child; with the child protection system; and, with the caring role. Findings suggested that carer engagement and ‘fit’ are complex constructs that play critical influential roles in placement outcomes (stability or movement) for individual children in out-of-home care. It is argued that practice needs to be better grounded in these relational dynamics, and better aligned concerning the power differentials that exist.