Multilateral negotiations over climate change policy

Negotiations in the real world have many features which tend to be ignored in policy modeling. They are often multilateral, involving many negotiating parties with preferences over outcomes that can differ substantially. They are also often multidimensional, in the sense that several policies are negotiated over simultaneously. Trade negotiations are a prime example, as are negotiations over environmental policies to abate carbon dioxide (CO₂). We demonstrate how one can formally model this type of negotiation process. We use a policy-oriented computable general equilibrium model to generate preference functions which are then used in a formal multilateral bargaining game. The case is to study climate change policy, but the main contribution is to demonstrate how one can integrate formal economic models of the impacts of policies with formal bargaining models of the negotiations over those policies.     

A new challenge to economic science: Global model simulation

The FUGI (Futures of Global Interdependence) global modeling system has been developed as a scientific policy modeling and future simulation tool of providing global information to the human society and finding out possibilities of policy co-ordination among countries in order to achieve sustainable development of the global economy co-existing on the planet Earth in the ever changing universe. The FUGI global model M200 classifies the world into 200 countries/regions where each national/regional model is globally interdependent. Each national/regional model has nine subsystems as population, foods, energy, environment, economic development, peace and security, human right, healthcare and quality of life (IT revolution). This is a super complex dynamic system model using integrated multidisciplinary systems analysis where number of structural equations is over 170,000. Economic model as a core includes major economic variables such as production of GDP, employment, expenditures of GDP, income distribution, prices, money, interest rates and financial assets, government finance, international balance of payments, international finance, foreign exchange rates and development indicators.The purpose of this article is twofold, namely to provide information on a new frontier science of economics: global model simulation as well as appropriate policy exercise for sustainable development of the interdependent global economy. The world economy is facing “green” energy revolution to change from fossil to create alternative energy and energy saving technology against sky rocketing higher oil prices. Japan takes a lead in this field of technology innovation. Under such circumstances, Japan should take an initiative to create a new peaceful world through not only harmonized adjustments of Japanese economic policy but also wise cosmic mind to promote human solidarity with the ever changing nature will be desirable to adjust orbit of the fluctuated global economy. Japan should challenge for a new strategy to accelerate economic growth rates by “CO₂ reducing environment investment” based on technology innovations.     

Beyond “linking knowledge and action”: towards a practice-based approach to transdisciplinary sustainability interventions

ABSTRACT

The imperative to “link knowledge and action” is widely invoked as a defining characteristic of sustainability research. The complexities of sustainability challenges such as climate change and biodiversity loss mean that linear models of knowledge and action, where knowledge is produced first (by researchers) then “applied to” action (by policy actors), are considered insufficient. Researchers have developed more dynamic, open-ended and collaborative forms of policy engagement such as transdisciplinary and co-production research. Although promising these approaches often remain captive to linear assumptions that hinder their transformative potential. We contribute by providing a relational model of knowledge and action rooted in contemporary practice theory. A practice-based approach suggests the primary task of participants in transdisciplinary interventions is to find workable solutions to situations of dynamic complexity that are fundamentally indeterminate and unpredictable. Knowledge is not “applied to” action, but drawn upon, produced and used from within the situation at hand, allowing researchers and policy actors alike to better harness the emergent character of situational developments and outcomes. A practice-based approach provides a conceptual language that captures the experienced complexities of intervening for sustainability, reconfigures the nature of “actionable knowledge,” and identifies appropriate modes of evaluation for transdisciplinary and co-produced research.     

The relationship between New Zealand's climate,energy, and the economy to 2025

Abstract

This study looks at the effect of current climate variability and projected future climate change to 2025 on New Zealand's energy industry (mainly electricity supply and demand) and at the wider economic implications of these effects. Electricity demand is modulated by climate largely through temperature, while electricity supply is modulated largely through rainfall and inflows to the major hydroelectricity‐generating lakes in the South Island. Six climate scenarios are examined with an energy model to determine the change in the demand for energy and the change in the composition of energy supply, especially with regard to the mix of electricity generation. The output from this model is then used as an input to a multi‐industry general equilibrium model of the New Zealand economy.

The modelling demonstrates that while the expected effects of projected climate change on the energy industry over the next two decades are reasonably significant, the flow‐on effects from the energy to the wider economy are negligible, albeit slightly favourable. Modelling of the effects of climate variability, which includes unusually cold years, unusually warm years, and variable precipitation, however, shows that unexpected adverse events do have a measurable economic impact, particularly if wage rates are inflexible. Export industries are particularly disadvantaged by higher energy costs, implying a need for adequate reserve generation capacity. Just how much reserve capacity is optimal is a topic for further research.

Climate change scenarios to 2050 and 2100 show much greater climatic effects than are expected over the next 20 years. These have not been modelled as the types and costs of electricity generation technologies that might become available beyond 20 years are extremely uncertain.     

Does inflation targeting lower inflation and spur growth?

Over the last few decades several countries have turned to inflation targeting as a policy choice for instilling stability into their economies. Prior studies have shown that inflation targeting has reduced inflation in those countries without significantly impacting GDP. This study seeks to improve upon these results by identifying the impact of timing on the policy decision as well as its impact as related to specific regions of the world. The focus is on developing countries across six regions. We find significant regional variation in developing countries in our sample in terms of the direction of changes in inflation following a switch to the inflation targeting policy. Moreover, although the impact of inflation targeting on real GDP is minimal overall, there is a statistically significant increase in real GDP among developing countries in certain regions only, namely, Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East.     

Social risk assessment and social capital: A significant parameter for the formation of climate change policies

Public policy issues arising from climate change projections are becoming increasingly important in terms of the range and the scope of their effects. In order to effectively confront them it is important to address social, environmental and economic aspects as fully as possible in decision-making processes. In this context, social risk assessment techniques have begun to be applied to explore citizens’ risk perceptions of climate change projections. The present study aims to contribute to this area by examining the influence of four social capital parameters (social trust, institutional trust, social norms and social networks) on public risk perceptions of climate change. An empirical study was conducted for this purpose in Greece's fourth largest city, Heraklion. Results demonstrate that social capital is a significant explanatory parameter for citizens’ risk perceptions. Specifically, individuals with lower levels of social capital tend to perceive higher risks from climate change impacts. The most important parameter explaining this result is the low level of institutional trust, revealing that Heraklion's citizens do not believe that existing public institutions will be able to effectively manage projected climate change impacts.     

A political-economic theory of relevance: Explaining climate change inaction

Why have societies failed to effectively respond to climate change? We address the question of climate change inaction by (1) examining how an unambiguously ominous report about climate change (IPCC 2018) was made palatable by news media and (2) explaining why climate change is typically unthematized in everyday life. Drawing on Adorno and Schutz, we develop a political-economic theory of relevance. The imperative to accumulate capital is not only a social-structural reality but also shapes why particular facts are regarded as relevant in experience (topical relevance) as well as how relevant material is interpreted (interpretative relevance) and acted toward (motivational relevance). Applying this framework, we (1) argue that media popularizations of the IPCC's dire Global Warming of 1.5°C (2018) are constituted by relevance systems conditioned by a capitalist social context and (2) strengthen Ollinaho's (2016) Schutzian explanation for climate change inaction by examining how productive relations and the culture industry perpetuate climate change irrelevance in everyday life. Schutz's framework helps conceptualize the intricacies of ideology and, when revised with Adorno's sociology, shines new light on an old question: the relations between social conditions and knowledge.     

Redefining “Old Age” and “Dependency” in East Asia: Is “Prospective Aging” A More Helpful Concept?

East Asian societies are currently some of the most rapidly aging in the world. Projections of the traditional old‐age dependency ratios (OADR) present a daunting future of the size of the aged population both in absolute terms and, in the context of low fertility, relative to the future workforce. Recently scholars, especially Sanderson and Scherbov, have argued that OADR is inadequate as a guide to future levels of dependency based, as it is, on past scenarios of “old age” and “dependency” rather than current and future notions. Indeed, in the context of rapidly aging settings in East Asia with developmental welfare states, the OADR has probably never been truly relevant, is profoundly unhelpful and could lead to policy paralysis. As such, Sanderson and Scherbov suggested a new method to measure aging prospectively to take into account both improved life expectancy and health across the life‐course. We introduce these new measurements as a possible new, more radical and optimistic way to think about aging in East Asia. These measurements more accurately demonstrate the “boundaries” to “dependency” and, hence, demonstrate the potential room for social policy interventions to maximize “active aging” for the population currently, perhaps incorrectly, defined as “old” and “dependent”.     

Business Mobilization and Public Policy in the U.S. States*

Objective. The goal of this study is to examine how the political mobilization of business interests influences aggregate public policy outputs in the states. We examine the relationship between business mobilization and general state policy liberalism, as well as policy that we term state “business policy climate.” Methods. We construct a measure of the “business policy climate” from a number of tax and regulatory indicators in the states and examine whether business influences it and policy liberalism using ordinary least squares regression. Results. The analysis shows that business mobilization does not influence general policy liberalism but is a significant influence on a state's business policy climate. Specifically, the dominance of a state's campaign finance system by business interests makes policy more favorable toward business. Conclusions. The extent of business mobilization in a state is an important influence on public policy outputs but is constrained by the activities of other political actors such as unions.     

Criticism of the Logic of the Ecological Imperialism of “Carbon Politics” and Its Transcendence

Within the framework of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol, international carbon politics inevitably presents itself as the logic or essence of “ecological imperialism,” reflecting a few Western countries’ expansion and development of their historically formed international hierarchical superiority or exclusive hegemony on the basis of their domestic capitalist economies and politics. This is an intrinsic obstacle to creating a more equitable, democratic and effective global climate or environmental governance system. Criticism of international carbon politics and its “ecological imperialism,” based on traditional “green-left” theories from Marxist philosophy and political economy, provides a theoretical basis for seeking an alternative way to cope with global climate change effectively. As a responsible developing country, China’s response to climate change is not only an internal requirement for the promotion of its own sustainable development, but also reflects its responsibility to create a community of shared future for mankind. This rationale for our time determines that it is necessary for China to become a world leader in coping with global climate change and environmental governance through a leadership which lies in making a contribution rather than fighting for hegemony.     

代际气候正义中的历史责任沉思--兼与徐峰博士商榷

气候变化问题的生成既是一个具体的社会历史进程，也是一个不断地由地方性转向全球性的过程。作为现代工业文明的产物，气候变化问题是现代性的后果。代际气候正义处理的是代际之间在气候资源配置与消费上的正义关系，主要包括前代人应该承担什么样的历史责任和当代人对未来人具有什么样的义务。在代际气候正义的历史责任认定上，“可原谅的无知”不能为发达国家或前代人的大气污染行为免责。因为“无知”不等于“不知”，“可原谅的无知”带来了责任认定上的契约主义，不利于贯彻代际气候正义原则。发达国家承担历史责任的依据在于“合理的谨慎”。原因在于引发气候变化问题的各主体都存着道义上义务---“合理的谨慎”，这是代际气候正义得以实现的重要原则。人类必须在资源有限的条件下展开社会合作，“合理的谨慎”能够保证社会合作与社会发展的顺利实现；气候变化问题是现代性风险的重要体现，“合理的谨慎”是应对气候变化问题的有效理念；气候变化问题归责的立足点在于各方主体的行为，正是各方主体未能履行“合理的谨慎”义务，才引发了全球性的温室效应。     

A climate stress test on the financial vulnerability of Italian households and firms

This study presents a novel methodological framework for assessing the exposure of the Italian financial system to climate policy risks, using a micro-founded approach. By combining survey and administrative data with energy accounts and energy prices, we estimate the energy demand elasticity of Italian households and firms at the micro-level and we use this information to simulate the effects of four one-off carbon taxes (corresponding to €50, €100, €200 and €800 per ton of CO₂) on their income and profits. To compute if (and how) carbon taxes might affect the share of financially vulnerable agents and the debt at risk, these estimates are employed as an input for the microsimulation models used to monitor financial stability at the Bank of Italy. According to our results, a level of carbon taxation within the range of €50?200 per ton does not have a sizeable effect on the share of financially vulnerable agents. The micro approach allows us to take into account the heterogeneous transmission channels of climate risks and indicates that the financial risks stemming from climate shocks are limited overall and specific to individual households and industries.     

The M/V Selendang Ayu disaster: Linkages between policy change, gaps, and crises

The 2004 M/V Selendang Ayu grounding in the Aleutian Islands was the worst spill disaster to hit Alaska coastal waters since the 1989 Exxon Valdez catastrophe. The grounding – resulting in several crew member deaths and 354,000 gallons of spilled diesel fuel – left stakeholders asking some basic questions. How could such a tragedy have happened? Was the tragedy a result of shortcomings in the existing policy? This case study suggests answers can be found through an examination of the linkages between crisis catalysts, policy change and subsequent gaps in statutory provisions.     

“开禁”还是“飨宴”？--汉唐北宋赐酺举措缘起、背景与施行动因的再探讨

汉唐北宋时代的“酒禁”政策并不能直观地理解为“禁民饮酒”。“禁群饮”之举在当时虽有发生,却始终并非一项整体与长期的国家政策,在其已然宣布的时期之内,执行与贯彻的力度也大可存疑。笼统地以“酒禁”或“禁群饮”政策的存在来解释赐酺举措发生和存续的合理性缺乏说服力。酺会在汉唐北宋的不断发生、持续流行,根本原因在于其最为核心的内容与意义是飨宴欢会。其给民众带来更热烈的欢宴体验、更加丰富的公共活动内涵以及更为广大的社交活动平台,同时为统治者提供得力的政治工具。赐酺之举的丰富功能使得其能够横历不同王朝,长期存在。     

Revisiting demand,politicization and externalization in authoritarian political regimes: policy advisory system in Russian practices

ABSTRACT

This study contributes to debate on three related questions in Policy Advisory System research. Is the Policy Advisory System concept applicable in countries other than developed democracies? How does it function in a state-centred authoritarian regime? How does the authoritarian environment affect tendencies such as “politicization” and “externalization”? These questions are addressed using materials on the current Russian governance structure and advisory practices, focusing on two broadly defined “governance subsystems” in the Presidential Administration of Russia, “Political Bloc” and “Economic Bloc”, both acting as regular customers for advisory communities. One finding is the phenomenon of “Dual Demand” from the same centre of power—“stability” for “Political Bloc” and “innovation” for “Economic Bloc”—which contributed to creation of two different clusters of policy advisory agencies with different statuses. Other findings include transformation of “politicization” to policy control mechanisms and attempted “externalization” turning into the reverse—“internalization”—bringing independent advisory organizations under the supervision of government structures.     

Comparing policy advisory systems beyond the OECD: models,dynamics and the second-generation research agenda

ABSTRACT

The concept of “policy advisory systems” was introduced by Halligan in 1995 as a way to characterize and analyze the multiple sources of policy advice utilized by governments in policy-making processes. The concept has proved useful and has influenced thinking about both the nature of policy work in different advisory venues as well as how these systems change over time. However, to date this work has examined mainly cases of developed countries and its application to developing and transitional countries is less certain. This paper sets out existing models of policy advisory systems based on Halligan’s original thinking on the subject and assesses the findings of many existing studies into OECD countries that advisory systems have been changing as a result of the dual effects of increased use of external consultants and others sources of advice – “externalization” – and the increased use of partisan advice inside government itself – “politicization”. Determining whether or not such changes have also characterized the situations found in developing and transitional countries and at the international-domestic and state-sub-state levels is the subject of the papers in this Special Issue.     

公共政策变迁间断-平衡模型的修正及应用--兼论新中国科研政策变迁的渐进与突变规律

公共政策变迁间断—平衡分析框架是以美国三权分立和联邦制政治制度为基础构建的,原分析框架限定于考察美国公共政策变迁趋势。尝试从适用条件、理论假设、变迁过程和根本原因等维度对间断—平衡分析框架予以修正,将修正后分析框架的适用条件扩大为稳定的政治制度结构,同时用修正后的分析框架考察新中国建立以来科研政策变迁的总体规律性。这样就达致了两个目的：一是修正和检验公共政策变迁间断—平衡分析框架;二是考察新中国建立以来科研政策变迁趋势,并为解释公共政策变迁提供新的理论工具。     

The relationship among CO2 emissions,electricity power consumption and GDP in OECD countries

This paper proposes a panel vector error correction model investigation of a quadratic relationship linking CO₂ emissions, GDP levels and electric power consumption. We find that two independent long-run relationships emerge from the data. Since the null of homogeneity across units with regard to long-run elasticities is strongly rejected, we proceed by clustering countries according to the signs of the estimated coefficients. The approach allows us to form three groups: in the first there is evidence of an optimistic scenario, where both CO₂ emissions and electric power consumption are bound to decrease in the long-run. An optimistic scenario for emissions reduction is also provided in the second cluster where, however, the long-run relationship between income and electric power consumption shows an U-shaped pattern, instead. Finally, the third cluster can be associated with a much worrying scenario where per capita CO₂ is expected to grow with income. A joint consideration of long-run parameters and causality links allows us to propose cluster-tailored policy suggestions.     

应对气候变化的协同效应研究综述

协同效应研究是近年来气候变化适应与减缓的重要研究领域,为量化评估和统筹制定面向区域大气环境管理与应对气候变化的综合性政策提供了新视角与新思路,逐渐成为气候变化适应与减缓的重要政策工具。协同效应在应对气候变化方面的研究进展,包括研究应对气候变化的协同效应的定义阐述、模型建立与案例分析等方面。国际上对于协同效应研究已经进入了由科学研究向决策服务的阶段,是服务区域国际气候谈判的重要科学基础。相比之下,对于发展中国家,特别是对于中国的协同效应研究,目前仍然处于起步阶段。进一步加强协同效应研究,对于科学体现应对气候变化的政策效果具有重要意义。     

The relationship between different social expenditure schemes and poverty,inequality and economic growth

In this article, we study how social expenditure is related to poverty, income inequality and GDP growth. Our main contribution is to disentangle these relationships by the following social expenditure schemes: 1) “old age and survivors”, 2) “incapacity”, 3) “health”, 4) “family”, 5) “unemployment and active labour market policies” and 6) “housing and others”. For this purpose, we employ OLS and 2SLS regression models using a panel data set for 22 Member States of the European Union from 1990 until 2015. We find total public social expenditure to be negatively related to poverty and inequality, but not related to GDP growth. The results vary substantially between the different social expenditure schemes, which makes more accurate targeting possible.