Covid-19 pandemic and food security in India: Can authorities alleviate the disproportionate burden on the disadvantaged?

The present study examines covariates of food security and the impact of Covid-19 induced shocks, among households in India using a nationally representative survey. Using a 2SLS panel regression model, we find an important role of incomes, relative food prices, household characteristics, as well as mobility restrictions in response to the rising number of infections in a given region in explaining varying food expenditure shares prior to and during the Covid-19 pandemic. The disproportionate burden of the pandemic induced lockdowns on the disadvantaged and minorities calls for effective action on the part of policymakers to boost aggregate demand, fix supply chains and reduce food price volatility.     

The link between the two epidemics provides an opportunity to remedy obesity while dealing with Covid-19

The World Health Organization proclaimed the global epidemic of obesity more than twenty years ago. However, there has never been a coordinated action to address the problem on the global level. Covid-19 virus pandemic is world’s largest public health problem currently. Many comorbidities associated with Covid-19 and obesity mortality are common. We determine that obesity is single largest and most common cause of mortality in Covid-19 patients globally based on a sample of 171 countries, while economic variables have no impact. This creates an opportunity to finally address the obesity global epidemic through an effort coordinated on the global level.     

The cross-impact between financial markets,Covid-19 pandemic,and economic sanctions: The case of Iran

The main financial markets in the Iranian Economy include the stock exchange, foreign exchange, oil, and gold markets. The sharp fluctuations in these markets, especially those caused by the severe sanctions imposed on Iran in May 2018, and the pandemic outbreak of Covid-19 have led to more confusion and uncertainty among investors. One of the effective approaches to examine such unstable conditions is to study the co-movement(s) between markets to identify the leading variable(s). Thus, in the present study, Wavelet Coherence Analysis was applied to examine the co-movements between markets in a time period from September 2014 to June 2020, as an intense period of uncertainty in Iran. In other words, in this study, the markets were investigated in different sub-periods. Also, the Segmented Regression was performed to estimate the impact of sanctions and the Covid-19 pandemic on the co-movements of financial markets in Iran.The results showed that the oil price had a low co-movement with the other three markets, i.e. stock exchange, exchange rate, and gold markets. Thus, the oil market can be a suitable alternative for risk aversion investors. Meanwhile, the oil market could also act as a source of finance for the government during the sanctions period. That possibly explains the recent decision by the Iranian government to use the oil market to finance its budget deficit. Between the exchange rate and gold price, the gold price was identified as the leading variable. While the exchange rate and gold price did not show a significant co-movement in stable conditions, they did show a significant co-movement in unstable conditions, as in times of sanctions or during a global pandemic and thus influenced the investors’ portfolio risk. This result is important from a policy-making perspective. Based on this result, the policymakers can, especially during crises and unstable conditions, control the gold market and make it more stable by managing the foreign exchange market.     

Effectiveness of policy interventions during financial crises in China and Russia: Lessons for the COVID-19 pandemic

We test the hypothesis that policy interventions in crisis periods are less effective when markets are integrated, drawing on China and Russia’s experience during the global financial crisis. We conduct an event study to examine the response of stock market returns and volatility to intervention efforts using DCC-GARCH and Markov Regime Switching Models. We then estimate the extent of integration of China and Russia with the US market and assess its impact on policy interventions’ effectiveness based on a regression framework. We find that interventions were effective in China but failed in Russia, where greater global links were evident. Our findings provide important policy lessons to address the impact of the current COVID-19 pandemic, given the increasing global market linkages.     

Covid-19 in Central America: Firm resilience and policy responses on employment

This paper examines how government support interacts with firm-level resilience capabilities in the reduction of layoffs among formal firms in Central America. Our analysis suggests that government support measures play a role in reducing the probability of layoffs among firms with only dynamic resilience capabilities (i.e., those that are developed after the pandemic onset). The effect of government support is not statistically different from the effect of static resilience capabilities alone (i.e., those that were present before the pandemic); thus, in firms with such capabilities, the effect of government support will be marginal. These results hold across sectors - exhibiting a marginally higher treatment effect in service sectors. Our results do not imply that Covid-19 supportive measures are to be disregarded, but instead raise the question of how government support policies could improve the allocation of support among firms in times of crises. Moreover, it underlines the necessity of policies that enhance resilience more broadly – a task that hints at structural issues and requires continuous government support in lieu of ad-hoc measures.     

Globalization in the aftermath of the pandemic and Trump

Covid-19 has exposed and deepened global inequalities: rich countries spent aggressively to sustain their economies and secured early vaccine access while most of the developing world continues to endure a growing disease burden. It also underlined the extent of inter-dependence and weaknesses in some of our international institutions and rules, many of which were established in the now discredited era of neo-liberalism. There is a rich, complex, and difficult agenda going forward for international cooperation. This includes aiding developing countries in restructuring their debt obligations, and guaranteeing that multi-national corporations pay their fair share with a robust international tax regime, better trade and intellectual property regimes, and better global regulatory frameworks for competition and social media. The failures of the past rules have led to political opposition to globalization. The only sustainable and inclusive path out of this pandemic is through cooperation and a re-imagining of globalization.     

Can the EU funds promote regional resilience at time of Covid-19? Insights from the Great Recession

This paper makes some contributions to the policy discussion on Covid-19. We present real-time evidence on the effects of the coronavirus crisis on regional employment in Italy, by finding that the current shock is producing major adverse consequences in the South and on female occupation. We document that both the absorption and the allocation of the EU funds can sustain the resilience of regional labour markets, by reducing the employment losses at time of Covid-19. We construct regional employment adjustment scenarios based on information and estimates observed during the Great Recession. We discuss the limits of our approach and future developments.     

The optimality of age-based lockdown policies

This paper studies an age-based lockdown that keeps over-60 workers at home as policy response to COVID-19 pandemic in a sample of thirty countries of the European single market. Three main policy issues are addressed, and the results can be summarized as follows. First, age-based lockdown policies are associated with limited output losses and, therefore, are an efficient strategy to limit the spread of the virus in a pandemic, especially in presence of strong age-dependent fatality rates. Second, lockdown policies generate substantial spillover effects; hence, international policy coordination avoiding that too many countries are in lockdown contemporaneously or that such coordination takes place across the countries with the highest integration of over-60 workers along GVCs may be helpful in reducing disruptions. Third, non-targeted lockdowns are much more costly than age-based ones; therefore, other things equal, age-based policies should always be preferred to non-targeted ones. Our analysis also suggests that, in our sample, the over-60 workers are relatively more numerous in sectors where the value added and the integration in GVCs is lower; this feature should be kept in mind in the design of other policies as it might play an important role.     

Oil prices,stock market returns and volatility spillovers: Evidence from Turkey

This paper examines the relationship between crude oil prices and stock market returns in Turkey taking into account volatility spillovers that are exemplified by second moment effects. Using weekly data from 1990 to 2017 and time varying causality-in-mean and causality-in-variance tests and taking into account structural breaks, we model each series as an EGARCH process in order to capture any leverage effects in the volatility of returns. Empirical results suggest crude oil prices as measured by Brent benchmark have significant effects on stock market returns in Turkey. While we fail to document significant spillover effects stemming from oil prices in the entire sample, there are significant spillover effects from crude oil price changes to stock market returns in 1993 and 2008–09. These results suggest that government policies must take into account risk spillover effects between markets and that investors are better off monitoring crude oil markets in portfolio allocation decisions.     

The asymmetric impact of the pandemic crisis on interest rates on public debt in the Eurozone

The outbreak of Covid-19 has played the role of a ‘game changer’ in the way countries of the Eurozone have faced the economic consequences of the pandemic crisis. This paper investigates what has happened to the interest rates of the sovereign bond in selected countries of the Eurozone during 2020. While the pandemic crisis can be interpreted as a symmetric shock, we found some important asymmetric consequences both in the sovereign bond market and the credit default swap market. Even though the European Central Bank (ECB) has played a fundamental role in easening tensions, especially with the announce of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP), countries with a higher pre-Covid level of the debt-to-GDP ratio have been found to undergo a significant jump in interest rates and a greater perceived risks of default. Important policies implications emerge in relation to the future role of the ECB.     

Emerging markets: Prospects and challenges

This article documents recent developments in emerging markets in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, assesses their prospects and challenges, and discusses appropriate policy settings for the medium term. It argues that EM policymakers’ ability to grapple with an incomplete and uneven recovery will be constrained by high public debt and uncertain inflation prospects as well as external risks surrounding capital flows and exchange rate developments. The paper also discusses potential impact of a tightening in global financial conditions and appreciation of the US dollar that could be triggered by a general increase in risk aversion or a reassessment of the likely path of US monetary policy.     

Modeling U.S. monetary policy during the global financial crisis and lessons for Covid-19

The paper formulates the modeling of unconventional monetary policy and critically evaluates its effectiveness to address the Global Financial Crisis. We begin with certain principles guiding general scientific modeling and focus on Milton Friedman's 1968 Presidential Address that delineates the strengths and limitations of monetary policy to pursue certain goals. The modeling of monetary policy with its novelty of quantitative easing to target unusually high unemployment is evaluated by a Markov switching econometric model using monthly data for the period 2002–2015. We conclude by relating the lessons learned from unconventional monetary policy during the Global Financial Crisis to the recent bold initiatives of the Fed to mitigate the economic and financial impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on U.S. households and businesses.     

Can unemployment forecasts based on Google Trends help government design better policies? An investigation based on Spain and Portugal

The Covid-19 pandemic has increased the unemployment issue and accelerated the digital transformation. Real-time data specific to ongoing revolution in applied economic analysis are increasingly demanded to anticipate changes in unemployment to improve decision-making. The aim of this paper is to test whether unemployment rate forecasts based on Google Trends data improve the predictions based only on macroeconomic indicators published with a longer time lag. The research has been carried out at the national level for Spain and Portugal, and the main novelty is the analysis of unemployment rate forecasts at the regional level for Spain using dynamic panel data models to implement the best policies to reduce unemployment. The keywords unemployment and job offers have been used in each language. The results obtained demonstrate the capacity of Google Trends data associated with unemployment to improve the predictions of unemployment rates in Spanish regions. Moreover, predictions based on Google Trends data at national level in Spain and Portugal are significantly more accurate than those based on autoregressive models for both countries.     

Policy responses to COVID-19 pandemic waves: Cross-region and cross-sector economic impact

This paper proposes a modelling approach to assess the cross-region and cross-sector economic impacts of the restrictions imposed by governments to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. The nationwide lockdown imposed in Italy during the first wave of the pandemic is used as a benchmark. However, the adopted approach allows an ex-ante assessment of alternative policy responses, in the event of successive pandemic waves, in order to rationalise the policy intervention and reach the best possible compromise between containing the risk of contagion and reducing economic losses. The used approach consists of a non-linear programming model based on a multiregional Input-Output (I-O) table, which guarantees greater flexibility than traditional I-O analysis. It is applied to estimate both direct and indirect losses of GDP and employment produced by alternative policy responses represented by general and differentiated lockdowns. The evidence deriving from the Italian experience shows a sort of learning process through successive waves based on the introduction of increasingly flexible and tailored policy responses to the pandemic.     

Child protection social workers in Italy and the Covid-19 challenges: Redefining services to support children and their families

During the Covid-19 pandemic, social workers played an essential role in helping people understand what was happening and cope with new unforeseen difficulties, even carrying out new tasks and activities. Social workers were asked to redefine their work methods to maintain aid relationships with families. This reorganization was complex and challenging for child protection services. The paper will discuss the results of a qualitative research project aimed to describe the Italian child protection social workers' functions during the Covid-19 pandemic. Three online focus groups were conducted with child protection social workers. These focus groups helped researchers explore the new organization of social workers' work in child protection services, which was aimed at maintaining their role and performing the new tasks they need to carry out to support families and children. Three main areas of discussion emerged from the qualitative analysis: (1) postponed and maintained activities; (2) remote work advantages and challenges; and (3) new professional learning.     

A macro‐financial analysis of pension system reforms in emerging Europe: The performance of IRAs and policy lessons for Serbia

The article explores the initial macro‐financial performance of partial pension system “privatizations”— involving privately‐managed individual retirement savings accounts (IRAs) — undertaken in many emerging European countries. Using empirical data for a period of close to a decade, the evidence shows that returns on privately‐managed IRAs have been below the implicit rate of return of public pay‐as‐you‐go (PAYG) systems. High operating costs and undeveloped capital markets are identified as major contributing factors to the failure of privately‐managed IRAs to meet reform expectations. In light of empirical evidence, Serbia is advised to focus on parametric PAYG reforms and to avoid reforms that involve the partial “privatization” of the pension system.     

Lessons learned from three Southeast Asian countries during the COVID-19 pandemic

Several scholars have focused on the COVID-19 case studies in Europe and USA, leaving the people in Southeast Asia with little information about the lesson learned from their own case studies. This study aims to analyses case studies through the SEIR model in three Southeast Asia countries including Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia. The SEIR model incorporates two types measures including social behavior and lockdowns as well as hospital preparedness. The SEIR model reveals that Malaysia, despite its relatively low testing capacity but with the application of the national lockdown, can slash the coronavirus transmission while Indonesia has still struggled to contain the COVID-19 flow owing to partial lockdowns. Singapore, at one hand, can successfully contain the coronavirus due to the national lockdowns, and the better healthcare system. With this point in mind, it is not surprising that Singapore has very low fatality rates and significantly low cases after lockdowns. Better preparedness lockdowns, and sufficient testing capacity are keys to controlling the COVID-19 flow, especially if the development of vaccines or distribution of respective vaccines is under progress.     

北约对华政策调整走势及其影响

北约在世纪之交开启对华交往,在特朗普政府上台后大幅调整对华政策。北约调整对华政策的根源在于:1)国际政治经济结构变化;2)北约将亚太安全视为全球安全使命的一部分;3)以美国为主导的北约决策机制失衡;4)北约延续并扩大冷战思维;5)在新冠肺炎疫情后;北约对华敌意增加。北约对华政策调整不利于国际政治、经济与安全结构建构,不利于亚太区域安全与稳定。中国要准确、系统、完整地认识北约对华政策调整,趋利避害,坚持合作共赢和对外开放,坚定维护国际多边主义,以实际行动打破北约的围堵与打压。     

Siblings in lockdown: International evidence for birth order effects on child adjustment in the Covid19 pandemic

Supportive family relationships may mitigate the impact of the Covid19 pandemic on young children's adjustment, but existing work is limited by its focus on within-country variation and parental influences. Addressing these gaps, and drawing on reported buffering effects of older siblings on child mental health (Lawson and Mace, 2010), the current international study examined whether child adjustment problems were, on average, elevated by the pandemic and whether this buffering effect of older siblings would be maintained. In the first wave of the Covid19 pandemic (April to July 2020), 2516 parents of 3- to 8-year-old children living in Australia, China, Italy, Sweden, United Kingdom, and United States of America—six countries with contrasting governmental responses to the pandemic—completed an online survey about family experiences and relationships and child adjustment, as indexed by ratings on the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ: R. Goodman, 1997). As expected, child SDQ total difficulty scores were elevated in all sites except Sweden (which notably did not enforce mass school closures). Compared to children without siblings, children with one or more older siblings showed fewer adjustment problems. Children from lone-parent households displayed more adjustment problems, as did those whose parents reported increased sibling conflict. Finally, child adjustment problems were negatively associated with family socio-economic status, but positively related to the indices of Covid-19 family disruption and government stringency. We discuss these findings in relation to existing work on asymmetric effects of older versus younger siblings, and siblings as sources of support.     

Uneven impacts of COVID-19 on the attendance rates of secondary school students from different socioeconomic backgrounds in Australia: A quasi-experimental analysis of administrative data

This paper contributes to the growing body of research that demonstrates uneven impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on educational outcomes of students from different socioeconomic status (SES) backgrounds. We evaluate the early impacts of COVID-19 on student attendance in secondary school and show how these impacts depend on students' SES. We employ a quasi-experimental design, using difference-in-differences (DiD) estimation extended to incorporate third-order differences over time between low-SES and other students, and pre- versus during-COVID-19, leveraging robust administrative data extracted from the registers of the Tasmanian Department of Education. Using data from multiple cohorts of secondary school students in government schools in Tasmania (N = 14,135), we find that while the attendance rates were similar pre- and during-COVID-19 for high-SES students, there was a significant drop in attendance rates during COVID-19 among socioeconomically disadvantaged students, demonstrating the more pronounced impacts of COVID-19 for these students. The findings demonstrate that even “relatively short” lockdowns, as those in Tasmania in 2020 (30–40 days of home learning), can significantly affect the learning experiences of students from socioeconomically disadvantaged backgrounds. We discuss the implications of this for future pandemic planning in educational policy and practice and how this needs to be addressed in Australia's COVID-19 recovery.