The role of deficit and debt in financing growth in West Africa

Empirical literature on debt–growth nexus and deficit-growth nexus indicate that government debt and fiscal deficit could have negative effects on economic growth after a certain threshold level. However, the impacts of debt and deficit on economic growth via the financial sector have not been thoroughly explored. Thus, this study examines the effects of debt and deficit on finance–growth nexus in West African region. It employs empirical strategies that account for various economic and econometrics issues. Evidence from the study reveals that the impact of financial development on growth varies with the levels of debt and deficit. Specifically, the marginal effects of financial development on growth turn negative when debt and deficit exceed the threshold levels of 48.6% and −13.5% of GDP, respectively. The implication of this study is that the financial sector is one of the channels through which debt and deficit exert their influences on economic growth. Thus, an increase in financial development would not produce the desirable long-run economic benefits unless it is accompanied by a reduction in government debt and fiscal deficit. Based on the findings, the study makes some policy recommendations.     

从分税制到项目制:制度演进和组织机制

分税制改革以后,中国随之进行了公共预算体制改革,由此形成了一种新的国家治理体制——项目制。地方政府的项目支出主要有三种类型：上级专项转移支付、上级非补助性项目支出和本级项目支出。三类项目支出在地方得以汇聚和重组,在很大程度上形塑了基层政府的财政结构。项目制本质上不是对科层制的一种摆脱或超越,而是国家主动对政府科层体系的一次完善和补充,是近代国家政权建设在新时期的延续与拓展。项目制的直接目的是“硬化”预算约束,深层目的是增强政府的回应能力,二者在实践中呈现一定张力,政府治理的理性化和技术化并不必然增强其对公共需求的回应能力,甚至可能形成反向效应。     

Spillover effects of taxes on government debt: a spatial panel approach

It is claimed that tax policy is neither time- nor space-independent due to cross-border tax base mobility, which induces spillovers. Specifically, fiscal shocks in one country are supposed to have an impact on fiscal policies in other countries. Different types of taxes influence economies differently. This paper addresses the question of their impact on government debt. Within a framework of spatial econometric modeling, we evaluate the impact of capital, labor and consumption taxes on public debt in 34 European countries in 2002–2011, and find strong spatial spillovers. We show that a consumption tax and, to a lesser degree, a capital tax significantly affect the sovereign debt, and that the global relations play a leading role (i.e. dominate the local ones) in shaping fiscal policy.     

Lebanon's economic reconstruction after the war: A bridge too far?

Since the onset of the Civil War in 1975 Lebanon has experienced burgeoning fiscal deficits and an unsustainable public debt overhang. Much of this arose from the loss of revenues during the period of the Civil War 1975–1990 and attempts to maintain basic public expenditure, while from 1990 to 2006 this reflected post-Taif rebuilding and reconstruction of key infrastructure with limited revenue capacity. Considerable progress from the 1990s had been achieved in rebuilding the shattered economy from both public and private international and domestic sources, but its legacy is a huge public debt and a servicing requirement that currently absorbs alone almost 30 per cent of total government revenue and is the highest in the world on a per capita basis. While the need to reduce this debt to a sustainable level would be daunting enough in itself, Lebanon's fiscal predicament was further compounded by the outbreak of war with Israel during July–August 2006. The consequence of this 34-day war was the devastation of residential property, vital infrastructure, loss of agricultural production, industrial production, exports, environmental damage, the collapse of tourism and a further erosion of the influence and power of the central government. Estimates of the direct and indirect costs for Lebanon of this relatively brief but devastating war conservatively vary from US$ 10–15 billion. The implications of such reconstruction and rebuilding costs for the budget and public debt are potentially calamitous for Lebanon which is already struggling under the weight of debt overhang and its servicing. A key question is whether Lebanon can tackle this enormous task in insolation.This paper explores the background to the fiscal crisis, identifies from available literature the extent, nature and cost of the war damage, analyses the options available to the authorities in rebuilding the economy and highlights key policy issues and measures that will be required if a sustainable economic recovery is to be achieved. Despite its demonstrated and remarkable resilience to past trauma the paper concludes that the fiscal crisis makes it impossible for Lebanon to tackle the reconstruction and rebuilding task on its own and particularly in the wake of the events of summer 2006. The country will require substantial and ongoing financial support from international lenders and donors. The success of these efforts in the case of Lebanon is of particular interest as it could well be a microcosm of possible future outcomes for the region more generally.     

The size and structure of China's government debt

This paper analyzes the size and structure of China's government debt. In addition to explicit government debt, we consider three types of government contingent liabilities: local government debt, university debt, and state banks’ nonperforming loans. The size of each types of debt is estimated and the reasons for the emergence of each type of debt are analyzed. International comparisons are made and it is found that China's government debt is larger than many other developing countries. To insure fiscal sustainability and to leave rooms for future expansionary fiscal policies, the government should reduce contingent liabilities.     

Threats,chances and opportunities: social capital in Europe in times of social and economic hardship

The 2008 financial and economic crisis, characterized by an economic breakdown unparalleled since the Great Depression, provides a unique opportunity to study the relationships between economic developments and social capital by asking: How does social capital change in times of social and economic hardship? In order to explore the trends of social capital development, data from the European Social Survey 2002–2016 are used. The results suggest that economic decline – particularly increasing unemployment – is associated with a decline in social capital, especially in southern European countries. Furthermore, increasing long-term interest rates as an indicator of government future debt sustainability appear to be detrimental for social capital development. The impact of economic decline, however, appears to be contingent upon the functioning of state institutions: especially in countries characterized by well-functioning governments social capital is significantly less affected by economic decline than other countries.     

Towards expenditure rules and fiscal sanity in the euro area

The study demonstrates the key role of expenditure policies in explaining fiscal developments during EMU in the euro area, its three largest members and four “macro-imbalances” countries. It compares actual primary expenditure trends with those that would have prevailed if countries had followed neutral policies based on expenditure rules since the start of EMU. Moreover, the implications for debt trends are calculated. Results show that all sample countries except Germany applied expansionary expenditure policies already before the crisis. Consequently, expenditure and debt paths were much higher compared to a counterfactual neutral expenditure stance. Rule-based expenditure policies could have led to much safer fiscal positions much more in line with the EU's Stability and Growth Pact. An empirical analysis of the determinants of countries’ expenditure stance confirms the need for stronger fiscal rules and institutions in the euro area.     

The feasibility of alternative IMF-type stabilization programs in Mexico, 1983–1987

In November 1982, Mexico announced an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on a program to ease the country's large foreign debt. Mexico may recieve nearly $4 billion worth of credit if the government reduces the deficit, raises taxes and curbs imports. This article investigates whether an IMF program like this can work in Mexico without a serious and immediate economic contraction. A model is constructed to examine the impact of government fiscal activity under alternative stabilization programs. The analysis suggests a critical element for success is the ability and willingness to raise tax revenues.     

我国国债的挤出效应分析

财政以发行国债方式为扩大政府支出筹集资金,在我国现阶段产生的挤出效应是不明显的,其经济效应是在一定程度上有利于社会总需求的扩张和经济的增长.根据我国现阶段国债对非政府部门投资和消费的挤出效应的特点,笔者进一步分析了其对我国宏观经济调控政策的启示.     

Geographies of Local Government Stress after the Great Recession

Local governments in the USA are facing increased levels of fiscal stress after the Great Recession. We conducted a national survey in 2012 to assess differences in sources of stress and service delivery responses (privatization, inter‐municipal co‐operation, and public delivery) across places. Our discriminant analysis on 1,889 US cities and counties contributes to the literature on state rescaling. We differentiate three types of stress: fiscal, housing market decline and demographic. Fiscal stress and demographic stress are linked and highest in metro core and rural places, while housing market decline is associated with population density and revenue diversification. Diverse revenue sources can ameliorate some of the fiscal challenges brought on by housing market decline. Regarding service delivery, we find privatization and co‐operation are higher in suburbs. State aid dependence is highest in rural and metro core areas with greater need, but decrease in state aid is highest in the South and West, where fiscal stress is also highest. Decentralization has exacerbated spatial inequality in the wake of the Great Recession challenging the efficiency claims of fiscal federalism. More redistributive state policies are needed.     

An evaluation of alternative fiscal adjustment plans: The case of Italy

What advice can be given to the policymaker to reduce the burden of public debt after a crisis? In this situation, the debt consolidation calls for fiscal surplus based on increases in taxes and/or reductions in public spending. This paper aims at answering to the above question. Specifically, it evaluates different policy options on the table using the estimated model of the Italian dynamic General Equilibrium Model (IGEM). Our main message is that plans aimed at reducing the public debt based on tax increases rather than expenditure reductions are more effective. Therefore, consolidation should be designed on the former.     

The mandatory private pension pillar in Hungary: An obituary

In 1998, the left‐of‐centre government of Hungary carved out a second‐pillar mandatory private pension scheme from the original mono‐pillar public system. Participation in the two‐pillar system was optional for those who were already working, but mandatory for new entrants to the workforce. About 50 per cent of the workforce joined the second pillar voluntarily and another 25 per cent were mandated to do so by law between 1999 and 2010. The second pillar has not improved the financial stability of the social security system. Moreover, the international financial and economic crisis has highlighted the transition costs that are associated with moving, even if only partially, to a system of pre‐funding. In 2010, the conservative government de facto “nationalized” the second pillar, and it is to use part of the accumulated pension capital to reduce Hungary's excessive public debt and annual budget deficit and to compensate for income tax reductions.     

Deficit sustainability,and monetary versus fiscal dominance: The case of Spain, 1850–2000

In this paper, we provide a test of the sustainability of the Spanish government deficit over the period 1850–2000, emphasizing the role played by monetary and fiscal dominance in order to get fiscal solvency. Since the condition of fiscal solvency was satisfied, government deficit would have been sustainable along the sample period. In addition, the whole period can be characterized as one of fiscal dominance.     

县级财政生产性支出偏向研究(英文)

中国县级决策者主要对上级负责,追求尽可能高的经济增长率,而非居民福利最大化,导致其财政决策偏向生产性支出。基于2067个县（市）2001-2005年财政经济数据的实证检验,为县级财政生产性支出偏向的存在提供了有力的证据。生产性支出偏向严重地妨碍公共财政体制的建设和向公共服务型政府的转型。解决这一问题的根本出路在于逐步增强县级政府满足本地居民需求的激励。     

The twin deficit hypothesis in Egypt

We employ a new approach to the twin deficit hypothesis aimed at enhancing policy making in Egypt. In contrast to the conventional twin deficit hypothesis between the current account, which comprises many items out of governments’ scope of maneuvering, and the budget deficit, we track the causal link between Egypt’s merchandise trade deficit and the budget deficit. We begin first by examining the conventional twin deficit hypothesis using a VAR model, which implies short run reverse causation running from the current account deficit to the budget deficit. Second, as cointegration exists between the budget deficit and the merchandise trade deficit, we run a multivariate VECM model which refutes the twin deficit hypothesis in favor of the current account targeting hypothesis. In policy terms, ameliorating Egypt’s trade balance would ultimately improve its fiscal balance as well.     

Alcohol Policy and Health Promotion: Rhetoric and Reality

This paper examines the economic and political constraints on the development of Australian policy directed at the prevention of alcohol-related health problems. An analysis is made of recent official statements and enquiries and it is argued that heightened concern about prevention arose in the context of budgetary problems and the need for governments to find ways of containing expenditure in the welfare area. The effectiveness of current efforts is called into question by the real nature of the constraints on health, and of the disparity between prevention rhetoric and policy implementation. It is suggested that government statements of intent to reduce the overall level of alcohol comsumption in the community entail no clear-cut commitment to a particular strategy or set of strategies, and that recent government actions indicate the limited possibilities for the implementation of such a policy. Any policies governments are likely to pursue are unlikely to disrupt major sources of government revenue. Because of the high profile that governments have created for the problem, there is the possibility that the policies that are adopted will be politically expedient in the short-term rather than providing real solutions.     

Breaking the Stability Pact: Was it predictable?

We show analytically that the credibility problem which has affected the European Stability Pact originates from the insufficient distinction between two reasons for having binding fiscal constraints. The first reason deals with the governments’ tendency to neglect the effects of their fiscal policy on foreign governments (fiscal free-riding). The second reason follows from the governments’ tendency to raise debt by lowering taxes or increasing expenditures, and then to leave it to their successors (fiscal short-termism). An enforcement mechanism relying on governments’ collusion works if the fiscal constraints are not calibrated for curing fiscal short-termism but only for preventing fiscal free-riding.     

Social Policy Diffusion from the Perspective of Intergovernmental Relations: An Empirical Study of the Urban Subsistence Allowance System in China (1993-1999)

Universal access to China’s social welfare system involves a process of diffusion from localities to the whole country on the basis of social policy innovations in which intergovernmental relations play a key role as a facilitator. The rapid establishment of the urban subsistence allowance system in more than 200 cities throughout the country in seven years (1993-1999) serves as a case for our empirical analysis of the diffusion mechanism of social policy innovations at different levels of government. Our findings show, firstly, that in adopting a new social policy, city governments have to respond to the social desire of local citizens while keeping fiscal constraints in mind; at the same time, they are affected by administrative orders from higher-level governments and the vertical fiscal relations between governments at different levels, and are also subject to competitive pressures from other cities at the same level. Secondly, city governments’ policy innovations offer an opportunity for higher levels of government to learn from their experience. Thirdly, central government orders exert both a direct and indirect influence upon city governments, with provincial orders acting as intermediaries. And lastly, there is a clear difference in the time lag effect of orders from the central government and those at provincial level upon city governments’ policy adoption.     

财政收入垂直分配关系及其均衡增长效应(英文)

不断扩大的地区间差异困扰着中国发展,并成为社会稳定的重要隐患。为了缓解地区间差距可能引发的各种矛盾,中国政府在1994年分税体制改革之后确立了具有集权倾向的财政收入垂直分配关系。通过财政资金的大规模双向流动,这种财政收入垂直分配关系促进了财政资金的跨区域配置和财政能力的地区间均等。但作为分权体制的重要制度安排,其在均衡地区间经济增长方面的作用却很有限,主要表现为大规模收入集中对经济发达地区的增长抑制。财政收入垂直分配关系的这些影响与地方财政非税收入依赖程度以及中央专项补助水平存在明显交互作用,前者显著弱化了财政收入过度集中的不利增长效应,后者却显著弱化了中央补助的增长激励。     

Reserve financing and government infrastructure investment: An application to China

This paper proposes a novel financing scheme, reserve financing, for government infrastructure investment in China. A two-sector open economy model explores the consequences and policy implications of a surge in infrastructure investment financed by international reserves. The results show that reserve financing, coupled with a managed float exchange rate system, can maintain the country's fast growth rate while mitigating fiscal pressure on local governments. Productive infrastructure capital stimulates domestic demand, reducing the country's dependence on exports. To promote growth and maintain price stability, three factors are critical: return on infrastructure, swift fiscal adjustment, and rapid infrastructure financing.