Renewable energy,CO2 emissions and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa: Does institutional quality matter?

Renewable energy appears to be the most optimal alternative to fossil fuel and the widely accepted pathway towards the mitigation of climate change. However, the costs of adopting renewable energy are high, and it appears the wealth of nations, the stages of economic development and growth and institutional willingness and quality are important in winning this global challenge. However, there is limited information on the interplay of all the factors that are perceived as critical in moving the world towards the use of renewable energy sources to meet most of the domestic and industrial energy needs. This study investigates the inter-temporal causal relationship between institutions, renewable energy, carbon emissions and economic growth for 45 sub-Saharan Africa countries using annual data for the period 1960–2017. We used the generalised method of moment panel vector autoregression (GMM-PVAR) technique to explore the linkages. From a general perspective, the results reveal that no causal relationship exists between institutions and economic growth, but a bidirectional causality exists between economic growth and renewable energy. Our results indicate that economic growth causes carbon emissions, and institutions are more likely to respond to carbon emissions and renewable energy but prompts no causality exists between carbon emissions and renewable energy. Interestingly, these results differ between countries with different institutional origin. The policy implications are discussed.     

应对气候变化之政策与政策工具选择

在应对全球气候变化的紧迫形势下,经过多年的博弈,欧美将口号变为实际行动,各国基本实行的是市场机制下的碳税、排放贸易机制混合的碳减排制度,在工具选择上遵循公平性、适应性和有效性的标准。我国目前气候变化政策工具主要采用行政手段,可考虑由专家与政府共同决策,按照共同但有区别原则、分地区集团化进行的减排路径,建立以市场为主、行政为辅、法律监管为后盾的减排政策机制,实现经济工具、政治工具、法律工具的三位一体。     

“碳关税”对中国经济的潜在影响

近年来,一些发达国家以应对气候变化为由,提出对进口的碳排放密集型产品征收特别的CO2排放关税,并将"碳贸易限制措施"扩大为"碳关税"壁垒。"碳关税"的开征必然对我国经济、出口贸易造成严重冲击。因此,我们应该积极主动参与相关国际规则的制定,优化出口贸易结构,加强低碳技术创新,实现向低碳经济的转型,以便充分地应对"碳关税"壁垒。     

SPECIAL ISSUE： CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL GOVERNANCEStrategic Measures to Reduce China＇s Carbon Emissions： Based on an Index Decomposition Analysis of Carbon Emissions in Eight Industries

基于优化的Laspeyres指数分解方法,通过考察1994-2008年我国八大行业部门碳排放量的总体趋势与特征,结果发现：经济规模每增长一个百分点,碳排放量平均增加15Mt（百万吨）,但不同行业间经济增长的边际碳排放量差异很大;经济结构重型化加剧碳排放量的增加,制造业比重每增加一个百分点,碳排放量平均增加56Mt;技术进步推动能源强度下降,是减少碳排放的核心动力,能源强度每下降一个百分点,碳排放量平均减少33Mt;以煤炭为主的能源结构导致碳排放密度居高不下,能源结构变化的减排效应并不显著。但是,综合碳排放密度下降是一个积极的信号,显现出我国能源结构优化的迹象。推动产业结构调整、能源结构优化,促进节能技术与工艺创新、走新型工业化道路,是实现中国低碳发展的必经之路。     

Strategic Measures to Reduce China’s Carbon Emissions: Based on an Index Decomposition Analysis of Carbon Emissions in Eight Industries

This article uses the refined Laspeyres index decomposition method to examine the overall trends and characteristics of carbon emissions in eight Chinese industries for the period 1994-2008. The results show that every one percentage point increase in economic scale will result in an average increase of 15 Mt (million tonnes) in carbon emissions. However, different industries vary greatly in terms of marginal carbon emissions caused by economic growth. The economic structure’s bias toward heavy industry fuels the increase of carbon emissions: every one percentage point rise in the share of manufacturing industry produces an average of 56 Mt carbon emissions. Technological progress helps reduce energy intensity and serves as a core driver in reducing carbon emissions, in that every one percentage point decrease in energy intensity will cause an average reduction of 33 Mt in carbon emissions. Our coal-dominated energy structure has resulted in a persistently high level of carbon emissions, suggesting that the reduction effect brought about by changes in energy structure is not significant. Nevertheless, lowering the density of overall carbon emissions is a positive signal, indicating that China is optimizing its energy structure. Only by promoting industrial restructuring, optimizing energy structure, encouraging energy-saving technologies and technological innovation, and reorienting industry can China achieve low-carbon development and control pollution.     

如何实现碳减排约束下的经济增长--人力资本的碳减排效应分析

人力资本因素可以解决碳减排约束和经济增长之间的矛盾。通过理论和实证两方面的研究表明,技术进步是碳减排的根本途径,而人力资本建设能够促进技术进步,同样具有明显的碳减排效应,依靠人力资本建设能够实现经济增长和碳排放减少的双赢,人力资本的碳减排效应甚至超过了技术因素,因为技术进步终究是由人创造的。因此,要充分挖掘人力资本的碳减排潜力;普及减排知识,增强自觉减排意识;提高教育质量,提升公民素质。     

国际经验对我国发展低碳经济的借鉴意义

2003年英国首先提出＂低碳经济＂概念后,引起国际社会的广泛关注和响应,一些发达国家采取积极的战略策略和政策措施推进低碳经济发展。这些国家在制定发展战略规划、优化能源结构、加强能源技术创新、加快产业结构转型、实施碳排放交易制度、广泛开展国际合作、倡导公众广泛参与以及完善法规政策体系等方面积累了丰富的经验,这对我国发展低碳经济有着积极的借鉴意义。     

The Influence of “Made in China” on the Great Moderation of the Global Economy：An Empirical Test Based on Value Chains*

We have collected data on China’s 22 main trading partners for 1984-2012 and used System GMM to study the influence of “Made in China” on the “Great Moderation” of the global economy. Our research shows that although trade scale, real effective exchange rate, oil prices, fixed capital investment and other variables have significantly expanded global economic volatility, “Made in China” has markedly restrained output growth rate fluctuations in countries around the world and price fluctuations in developed countries, helping the global economy develop with “high growth, low volatility.” “Made in China” is a long-term variable in the context of the global value chain. China needs to take advantage of global value chain restructuring to further upgrade and develop processing and manufacturing industry and expand its presence in the international market. It could choose to adopt a “mirror strategy” and launch trade sanctions targeting counterpart industries or enterprises to counter irrational trade sanctions from the developed countries. At the same time, however, it is important for China to make its own contribution to improve global economic governance and building a new international economic order in the era of global value chains by strengthening its policy coordination with other countries.     

中国节能减排：征税还是部门总量控制与交易

目前,中国的节能减排面临艰巨的任务。近来,有关碳税的讨论广受关注。从理论上来看,碳税是应对气候变化、推进节能减排的最优路径。但在中国目前的特殊体制和宏观经济形势下,征收碳税须慎之又慎。我们必须首先解决好碳税的减排效果、碳税对经济增长的冲击、税负转嫁、税收中性等问题后再考虑开征碳税。对碳税要展开进一步研究,要对2012年开征的时间表进行重新修正。同时,要把重点对准碳交易,花大力气去研究、探索、建立中国的碳交易体系。     

Carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth in the U.S.

The objective of this paper is to analyze the relationship of the carbon Kuznets curve. We discuss two potential flaws in past carbon Kuznets curve studies: one, the potential misspecification of energy consumption as a control variable; and, two, the use of vector error correction models as an empirical specification. Given these potential flaws we estimate a dynamic ordinary least squares model of monthly carbon dioxide emissions, personal income, and energy production in the U.S. from 1981 to 2003. Our results suggest that economic growth drives emissions intensities, not absolute emissions as is often implied in past studies.     

东盟五国能源消费、经济增长与碳排放——基于环境库兹涅茨曲线的实证研究

基于环境库兹涅茨曲线构建能源—经济—碳排放关系的碳排放模型,采用面板协整检验和面板因果关系检验方法,对东盟五国1971～2007年能源消费、经济增长与碳排放三者关系进行实证分析。结果表明,能源消费与经济增长之间在短期和长期均存在单向的格兰杰因果关系。另外,能源消费与二氧化碳排放之间在短期和长期也都存在单向的格兰杰因果关系。     

北京市区县间医疗资源配置的人口公平性研究

北京市医疗资源的增长远远落后于经济增长。通过对北京市三种主要医疗资源在十八个区县间的配置进行区县人口公平性分析,表明医疗资源存在着较明显的区县人口不公平性,并且这种不公平性在逐年加剧。同时,北京市医疗资源配置对流动人口应对不足。因此,政府应该在北京市医疗资源配置规划及实施中起到更多的主导作用,加大在医疗资源匮乏地区的投入,并且关注人口变动对医疗资源配置产生的新需求。     

印度产业升级的路径依赖和路径创新——一基于新制度经济学视角的探讨

产业升级是一个国家经济持续增长的必经之路，实质上也是一个制度变迁的过程。按照新制度经济学的观点，建立在自然资源禀赋、技术、制度、环境等因素基础上的路径依赖已经将印度锁定在“逆工业化”这条路径上。要想破除锁定，实现产业升级，就必须分析印度产业结构中产生路径依赖的各种因素，比如报酬递增、利益集团、初设成本、学习效应、协调效应、适应性预期、思想观念等，实现路径创新，增加经济发展的内源动力，实现国民经济可持续增长的目的。这一思路对中国的产业升级也具有启示作用。     

Trading Equity for Efficiency in Environmental Protection? Environmental Justice Effects from the SO2 Allowance Trading Program*

Objective. Arthur Okun made plain the fundamental conflict between efficiency and equity that arises in the pursuit of policy goals ( Okun, 1974 ). Although Okun was speaking about government tax and spending policy, the potential conflict between efficiency and equity is also manifest at the nexus of two of the most far‐reaching changes in the environmental policy arena: the adoption of market‐like tools for pollution control and the quest for environmental justice. The article assesses this potential tradeoff by determining whether the pursuit of efficiency through the Clean Air Act Amendment's (CAA) sulfur dioxide allowance trading program (ATP) inadvertently transfers pollution into poor and minority communities. Methods. I employ Probit, Tobit, and GLS models using data for all SO₂ trading activity between January 1995 and March 2009 to estimate whether allowance trading concentrates SO₂ emissions in poor communities and communities of color. When using these models, I control for sample selectivity and for possible bias stemming from the modifiable areal unit problem. Results. The ATP does not concentrate sulfur dioxide emissions in black or Hispanic communities. To the contrary, communities with high percentages of black and Hispanic residents experience fewer imports of sulfur dioxide. Allowance trading does transfer SO₂ emissions into poorly educated communities. Conclusions. There is no inherent tradeoff between efficiency and equity when using market‐based instruments for pollution control. Policymakers, however, might make an effort to design and implement future emissions trading programs in a manner that reduces the monitoring costs of tracking emissions trading. By reducing monitoring costs, policymakers may prevent the concentration of emissions in poorly educated communities while preserving the efficiency benefits of these instruments.     

论工程风险的分配正义

现代工程已经把我们带入了一个"风险社会",工程风险分配的不公正会引发社会的不平等和非正义,因此,公正地分配工程风险是工程伦理学的重要课题。功利主义路径虽然具有很强的实用性,但没有充分尊重每个个体自由选择的权利,更缺少道德上的逻辑支撑。自由主义路径充分尊重了人的自由权利,却从根本上祛除了道德前提。德性主义路径以道德为根基,包含功利主义的考量,也给自由主义留下了空间。因此,在工程风险的分配中,德性主义路径最能彰显社会正义。     

Welfare Rigidity,the Composition of Public Expenditure and the Welfare Trap

Welfare expenditure is characterized by rigidity, i.e., it goes up easily but is very hard to get down. We introduced welfare rigidity into an endogenous growth model that includes government expenditure to analyze the impact of welfare rigidity and the composition of public expenditure on economic growth and family utility. Our findings show that welfare spending and economic growth have a non-monotonic relationship that is negative or inverted U-shaped depending on cross-country differences. Higher welfare rigidity reduces long-term economic growth and household utility. According to the estimated optimal size of welfare expenditure, China, as a developing country with a large population, has to do all it can to improve people’s livelihood but must at the same time weigh its limited resources so that its welfare expenditure does not fall into a “welfare trap.”     

中国经济增长中资源总配置效应的实证分析

文章在对我国资本总量估算的基础上,利用赛尔奎因的资源总配置效应分析方法,对我国经济增长中资源总配置效应进行了实证分析。实证分析结果显示我国资本配置失衡导致资源总配置效应低下,为了优化经济结构和加快经济发展,必须优化资本配置,提高资本配置效率。     

An alternative assessment of global climate policies

This paper analyzes alternative pricing schemes for funding investment in climate policies. This paper proposes a new policy scenario, explicitly disentangling the issue of burden sharing of financing new investments from the issue of taxation energy consumption and therefor emissions. We compare traditional allocation schemes with an optimal Ramsey pricing by applying demand elasticity values, derived from empirical estimations of household behavior for the 106 leading countries in the world, representing around 90% of total world energy consumption and carbon emissions in 2014. We calculate country-specific alternative taxation options: uniform, equitable and Ramsey pricing schemes, applied to households, assessing the related welfare effects. Our results show that the optimal pricing scheme, for a given investment need, can improve world welfare at the expenses of equitable considerations. In addition, the aggregate societal benefit outweighs the losses associated with specific group of countries, paving the way for easier political agreement, using compensation schemes to redistribute the proceeds.     

SPECIAL ISSUE： CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL GOVERNANCE Consumption-based Carbon Emissions and International Carbon Leakage： An Analysis Based on the WIOD Database

全球消费水平的提高是引起温室气体排放增加的主要原因之一,全面了解消费碳排放的增长趋势及其影响因素有利于气候政策的设计。本文采用WIOD数据库的区域间投入产出表及部门碳排放数据,建立多区域投入产出（MRIO）模型,构建消费碳排放核算目录,分析全球消费碳排放及国际碳排放的溢出效应。研究结果表明：2009年全球消费碳排放为28850百万吨（Mt）,其中国际贸易所隐含碳排放占到全球的20％,而这些贸易隐含碳主要是从中国和BRIIAT生产和出口,由北美和欧元区消费引起的。如果考虑国际贸易的影响,国际地区间碳强度的差距将缩小,人均消费碳排放从2．4t（BRIIAT）到14．7t（北美）不等。进口隐含碳分别占到北美和欧元区的33％和17％,而中国碳排放的29％是由其他国家消费引起的。因此,消费碳排放核算体系的建立对于国际气候谈判日益重要,在生产者和消费者之问分配碳排放责任,从而改变全球消费模式将有助于减排。     

A Study of an Industrialization Strategy for China’s Upper-Middle Income Stage

When the high-income East Asian economies entered the upper-middle income stage, their long-term growth was sustained by their real manufacturing output share and total factor productivity (TFP). This is a typical pattern that is highly consistent with classical development economics, which sees manufacturing as the engine of economic growth. When China became a middle-income country, its share of real manufacturing output and TFP both fell over the same period, exhibiting a theoretical and empirical tendency toward “premature deindustrialization” that increases the risk of being caught in the middle-income trap. Accelerating China’s development as a manufacturing power, advancing high-tech manufacturing and improving the quality and efficiency of traditional industries are realistic options for the country’s industrial development strategy.