基于消费者选择行为的生鲜农产品保鲜和定价策略研究

针对生鲜农产品易变质的特性以及消费者偏好的多样性,构建了价格和新鲜度影响下的消费者时变选择模型,基于零售商所面临的初始订货数量变化或潜在市场容量变化,分析了零售商对于生鲜农产品的最优定价及最优保鲜投入。结果表明,当潜在市场容量较小时,零售商通过保鲜所获得的利润增加值、最优定价及最优保鲜投入均随着初始订货量的增加而减小;当潜在市场容量较大时,零售商的保鲜利润增加值和最优定价仍然随着初始订货量的增加而减小,但最优保鲜投入却随着初始订货量的增加而增大。     

考虑策略性消费者的生鲜农产品定价和库存决策

消费者的策略性行为使零售商的生鲜农产品的定价和库存决策面临更大挑战。本文基于报童模型,综合考虑消费者的策略性行为,对生鲜农产品价值下降进行离散化处理。刻画策略性消费者的决策行为,构建零售商的单阶段和两阶段定价及库存决策模型,分析了产品价值剩余率对消费者行为、零售商最优定价、最优库存水平以及零售商利润的影响机理。研究发现,在单阶段模型中零售商最优价格和最优库存水平均随产品价值剩余率的递增而递增;而在两阶段模型中,第二阶段最优价格随价值剩余率的变化趋势可能存在阈值。     

基于信息更新与服务水平约束的供应链订货及协调决策

研究由一个供应商和一个零售商及一组顾客组成的单周期供应链系统。供应商向零售商提供两次订 货机会,零售商根据第一阶段的订货情况及市场信号,对需求信息进行更新预测,确定第二阶段是否需要补货。首先,通过分析顾客购买与退货决策,确定产品的最优零售价格与退货价格。其次,对零售商的订 货策略进行研究,以两阶段利润之和最大化为目标函数,引入服务水平约束,确定了零售商第一阶段和第 二阶段的最优订货量,并探讨了市场信号和服务水平约束对零售商最优订货策略及期望利润的影响。结果表明,当目标服务水平设定较低时,零售商的订货策略与不设定服务水平约束时的情形相同;但是无论是高目标服务水平还是低目标服务水平,若二次订货时点上的市场信号为低值时,零售商无需二次订货,而若此时点的市场信号为高值时,零售商需要进行二次订货,目标服务水平的高低将对第二次的订货量产生影响。最后,证明了基于差别定价的回购契约能够实现上述供应链系统的协调。     

基于消费者效用的生鲜农产品供应链生鲜度激励机制研究

生鲜供应链整体生鲜度的提升对减少浪费、提高供应链整体盈利水平及社会福利有重要意义。本文基于消费者效用理论研究了两供应商和单一零售商组成的供应链系统，构建了单周期下生鲜农产品生鲜度激励模型，模型以供应商为领导者，采用Stackelberg博弈方法求解得到了均衡状态下供应商、零售商的最优定价策略及供应商新鲜度努力选择。研究结果表明，供应商和零售商利润与消费者价格敏感系数呈反向变化，与新鲜度敏感系数呈同向变化。在价格竞争市场，供应商保鲜努力程度和利润与价格替代率呈反向变化；在生鲜度竞争市场，供应商保鲜努力程度和利润与新鲜度替代率呈同向变化。基于研究结论，厂商及政府应当联手引导消费者的消费观念，尽可能减少由于信息不对称引致的道德风险，在市场价格替代率不变甚至降低的情形下，提高生鲜度替代率，使得消费者的意愿支付价格上升，提高自身讨价还价能力，获取更多利润。     

考虑质量与数量损耗控制的生鲜农产品保鲜策略研究

生鲜农产品具有质量和数量双重损耗特性，零售商需采取合理的保鲜控制策略降低损耗带来的损失。对此，建立了同时控制生鲜农产品质量和数量损耗、显著控制数量损耗和显著控制质量损耗三种保鲜策略下，考虑质量损耗和数量损耗的生鲜农产品库存模型和零售商利润模型，对比分析了零售商的最优保鲜策略选择以及对应的订货和定价策略。研究发现：当质量损耗和数量损耗控制效果一定时，随着价格和新鲜度敏感系数之比或批发价格逐渐增大，零售商的保鲜策略选择由显著控制数量损耗转变为双重损耗控制，进而转变为质量损耗控制。而当保鲜成本和保鲜效果敏感系数较低时，零售商只会在两种具有单一损耗控制效果的保鲜策略中进行选择；但当保鲜成本和保鲜效果敏感系数增大时，零售商选择双重损耗控制保鲜策略的可能性越大。     

一种减少供应链牛鞭效应的资产组合管理方法

考虑一个由单个供应商和多个零售商组成的供应链系统,零售商面临无促销活动和有促销活动两种动态需求环境,采用周期性检查库存策略,基于当前市场需求信息向供应商订货.同时,市场中的零售商由于订货决策行为的相互影响而存在一定的相关性.本文探讨零售商之间具有不同相关性订货决策时,运用资产组合管理方法调整零售商之间的供应量,减少订货的总方差,实现减少订货所产生牛鞭效应.随后,通过对比分析零售商订货量调整前后库存水平、库存成本、缺货损失和利润,验证了零售商调整订货量的动机和积极性.数值算例的结果表明,运用资产组合管理方法能够减少供应商的总方差,同时能够激励具有不同相关系数的零售商调整订货量,在一定程度上减少供应链中的牛鞭效应.零售商之间的相关系数越大,供应链中牛鞭效应减少的效果就越显著;且在同一相关系数下,零售商对市场需求预测的方差越大,运用资产组合管理方法所达到的牛鞭效应减少的效果就越大.     

考虑消费者效用与保鲜的生鲜农产品EOQ模型

针对生鲜农产品新鲜度随时间减小的特点,构造受生鲜农产品新鲜度和零售价格影响的消费者时变效用函数,分析了消费者在不同时刻够买生鲜农产品的效用和数量的变化,并基于此建立了消费者偏好影响需求的生鲜农产品EOQ模型;以提高消费者效用为目的,分析了两种不同保鲜情形下零售商的最优订货决策和最优保鲜投入。研究发现,零售商的最优保鲜投入并不能使消费者效用最大化,满足消费者对生鲜农产品新鲜度的要求必须依靠政府的宏观调控。     

零售商主导下生鲜农产品供应链的定价策略对比研究

运用RFID技术来监控与管理产品,零售商可以依据记录、传递的产品实时价值信息制定更为灵活的定价和订货策略,提升自身以及供应链的利润。针对生鲜农产品在价值损耗及消费者需求等方面进行特征分析,分别在固定定价、动态定价以及带有降价时点考虑的定价三种不同模式下,构建了单周期零售商的决策模型,得到各自的最优定价与订货策略,通过分析最优策略与关键参数之间的关系,发现:价值衰减系数越大,库存成本参数越大,三种模式下的总体零售价格都越小,价格的下调幅度越大;而两个参数对降价折扣时间点的影响却截然相反。进一步,着力在最优销售价格、订货总量与利润值三个方面对三种定价策略进行对比分析,结果显示基于RFID技术的灵活定价模式有助于零售商获取更大的市场需求量及更大的收益。数值实验进一步验证了理论研究的结果,为生鲜农产品供应链中对RFID技术的应用以及相应定价模式的选择提供了参考依据。     

随机需求下生鲜电商供应链物流合作与运营决策

物流服务合作对生鲜电商供应链订货定价决策与产品保鲜水平具有重要影响。基于物流服务商独立运营、与供应商合作、与电商平台合作三种物流合作模式分析,分别构建考虑市场随机需求与保鲜努力的生鲜电商供应链运营决策模型,对比探讨不同模式下的产品定价、产品保鲜努力与市场需求,并结合数值算例分析生鲜电商市场需求预测与供应链成员合作模式偏好。研究结果表明：物流合作能有效分担物流保鲜成本与市场预测风险,降低产品零售价格,提高物流保鲜努力水平;独立运营模式下生鲜电商应采取较保守的产品订货策略,而合作运营模式下可适当提高产品订货量;两种合作经营模式可提高合作企业利润与供应链整体利润,利润合理分配是成员企业合作经营的关键。     

考虑零售商失望规避与欣喜寻求的定价与订货联合决策

现实中,零售商在定价与订货联合决策中往往会关注实际收益与预期收益的差异,并表现出失望规避与欣喜寻求行为,而针对考虑零售商失望规避与欣喜寻求行为的定价与订货联合决策问题的研究成果还不多见。在本文中,首先依据失望理论刻画了基于零售商预期收益的失望-欣喜效用函数,并在此基础上构建了考虑零售商失望-欣喜效用的定价与订货联合决策效用函数;然后,通过分析确定了使期望效用最大化的最优零售价格与最优订货量;进一步地,通过数值实验分析了零售商不同的预期收益、失望规避程度与欣喜寻求程度对其最优零售价格与最优订货量的影响。研究结果表明,零售商不同的预期收益以及失望规避程度与欣喜寻求程度均能够影响定价与订货联合决策结果,且针对具有不同预期收益的零售商,其失望规避程度与欣喜寻求程度对其最优决策结果的影响不同。     

一类具有生存/危险特征的生鲜品价格策略研究

研究了一个周期内零售商对一种易变质生鲜品的订购和价格决策问题。引入价格转折点概念,变质率具有三参数生存/危险特征的Weibull分布,需求率依赖于变质率和价格,建立利润最大化的目标函数,将求解最优价格的问题转化为带有控制的Bolza问题,得到最优价格表达式。通过算例,研究了价格敏感度和价格转折点变化对利润的影响,进一步给出了灵敏度分析和价格弹性分析;对于生鲜品,随着时间的推移,销售价格越来越低;对销售价格敏感的顾客,销售量随着价格转折点的滞后而降低,但在整个销售阶段的1/2到3/5附近进行价格调整有助于增加利润。     

Pricing and Replenishment of Competing Perishable Product Variants under Dynamic Demand Substitution

I consider pricing and ordering decisions faced by a retailer selling a perishable product with a two‐period shelf life over an infinite horizon. In the first period, the product is “new”; in the next, it becomes “old.” The new product is perceived by customers to have a higher quality than the old product. Every period, the retailer makes three decisions: prices for the new and old products and how much new product to order. I first show, with some simple cases, that demand uncertainty can make the sale of the old product profitable. I then consider a more realistic case with dynamic demand substitution among customers. I recognize that the retailer's decisions may be constant or may vary across different periods, under different contexts. For instance, varying the price of the new product can sometimes be difficult due to the negative impact it generates among customers. I find that (i) the benefit obtained from selling the old product with constant decisions is much higher than the benefit from allowing all the decisions to vary; (ii) the former benefit increases with a higher procurement cost, a higher quality of the new product, and higher demand volatility; however, the latter benefit is non‐monotone in these parameters; (iii) most of the latter benefit can be obtained by just changing the order quantity; and (iv) as the inventory of the old product increases, when all the decisions vary, the optimal price of the new product may increase or decrease.     

Shelf Life Extending Packaging,Inventory Control and Grocery Retailing

Retailers of perishable goods are often faced with the choice between more expensive packaging that can extend shelf life of their products and less expensive packaging that cannot. Different choices will lead to different sales, costs, and waste, and different choices require different inventory control policies. In this paper, we study the coordination of inventory and packaging decisions in a retailing environment. Items in an active package have a longer lifetime than those in a regular package and cost more. Customers always pick items with a longer lifetime first. When items with a longer lifetime are out of stock, a portion of customers are willing to buy less fresh items as substitutes. Our study shows the optimality of a “separation” policy when the substitution rate is high. In the separation policy, as the initial inventory level increases, the optimal policy changes from using active packaging only, then to using regular packaging only, and finally to ordering nothing. These results are very specific to the way perishable inventories are depleted in retailing. Our numerical study shows that although it may not be optimal in terms of cost, the adoption of active packaging can consistently achieve substantial waste reduction.     

需求分布规律变化情况下的报童订货策略

在需求分布规律变化情况下,报童在进行订货决策时会因为错误判断需求分布规律而导致期望库存成本增加。为了解决这一问题,本文集成传统历史需求信息和非传统需求信息以正确地认知需求分布规律,在此基础上决策订货量。假设需求服从均值不同、方差相同的两种类型的正态分布,每一种正态分布的概率已知。利用信号检测理论构建基于历史需求信息与需求分布概率的报童最优订货策略,并与只基于需求分布概率的直觉规则订货策略进行对比。结果表明：只要排除需求分布概率很大或很小两种极端情况,最优订货策略比直觉规则订货策略在控制期望库存成本方面的作用更明显,即利用历史需求信息可以有效修正报童对实际需求分布的检测结果,从而提高实际订货决策的准确性。研究结果对传统历史需求信息和非传统需求信息的集成以及需求信息交换等有一定的管理学启示和应用价值。     

基于新鲜度的冷链一体化库存与定价联合决策

为了揭示生鲜农产品在流通中质量与数量损耗的变化规律,分析"双重损耗"对冷链库存的影响,针对配送中心与零售商组成的两级冷链系统,引入保鲜努力与时间因素对生鲜农产品的数量与质量损耗进行刻画,尤其突显了二者间的关联性及其合理性,需求上综合考虑了价格与新鲜度的影响,以供应链总平均利润最大化为目标函数,建立了二级冷链一体化库存模型,并对系统最佳的保鲜投入、库存及定价进行了规划求解。随后,以某连锁超市销售的鲜切果蔬为例进行仿真,验证了模型的有效性。最后,灵敏度分析发现,一方面,系统利润会随着新鲜度时间敏感性的降低与保鲜努力敏感性的增加而增加,且时间敏感因子更容易左右系统利润的变化。另一方面,并非所有的生鲜农产品都适用打折促销。考虑商品"双重损耗"所做的库存与定价的优化分析不仅为生鲜农产品冷链的理论研究提供了新思路,也为冷链运作实践提供了更为可靠、更为有效的决策参考。     

Postponement implementation in integrated production and inventory plan under deterioration effects: a case study of a juice producer with limited storage capacity

Abstract

The aim of this study is to develop a production and inventory plan for a fresh apple juice producer. During harvest season, the producer extracts premium juice from freshly picked apples and keeps an inventory of these premium apples in his temperature-controlled storage facility. The producer extracts also regular juice from regular apples purchased from third-party storages. To satisfy future demand, the producer carries inventories of juice and apple. The levels of apple inventories are constrained by the producer’s limited storage space, but he can replenish regular apples. To assist the producer in facing demand uncertainty and deterioration of apples, we develop a production and inventory plan that incorporates postponement to mitigate demand uncertainty. As postponement decisions are shaped by the cost structure of inventories, we integrate in one model the postponement decisions and the deterioration mitigation decisions that can alter the inventory costs. We build multi-period stochastic programming with recourse model to determine juice batch sizes and apple inventories that maximize the producer’s expected profit. The optimal solution illustrates the use of time and form postponements. We discuss the interactions between postponement implementation and decisions to mitigate apples deterioration. We compare the production and inventory plans with and without postponement and with and without apple deterioration. We also present sensitivity analyses for the plan under varying inventory cost and storage space.     

Grocery Perishables Management

In this article, we study the joint pricing and inventory control problem for perishables when a retailer does not sell new and old inventory at the same time. At the beginning of a period, the retailer makes replenishment and pricing decisions, and at the end of a period, the retailer decides whether to dispose of ending inventory or carry it forward to the next period. The objective of the retailer is to maximize the long‐run average profit. Assuming zero lead time, we propose an efficient solution approach to the problem, which is also generalized to solve three extensions to the basic model. A feature of the present study is that we consider explicitly the influence of perishability on the demand. Among the insights gathered from the numerical analysis, we find that dynamic pricing aids extending shelf life and when disposal incurs a lower cost, or even a positive salvage value, the retailer is induced to dispose earlier since the benefit of selling new inventory offsets the loss due to disposal. We also observe that the faster the perceived rate of deterioration, the lower the threshold of the ending inventory for disposal. Perhaps a bit counter‐intuitive, maximizing profits does not mean eliminating disposals or expirations.     

On the Benefit of Inventory‐Based Dynamic Pricing Strategies

We study the optimal pricing and replenishment decisions in an inventory system with a price‐sensitive demand, focusing on the benefit of the inventory‐based dynamic pricing strategy. We find that demand variability impacts the benefit of dynamic pricing not only through the magnitude of the variability but also through its functional form (e.g., whether it is additive, multiplicative, or others). We provide an approach to quantify the profit improvement of dynamic pricing over static pricing without having to solve the dynamic pricing problem. We also demonstrate that dynamic pricing is most effective when it is jointly optimized with inventory replenishment decisions, and that its advantage can be mostly realized by using one or two price changes over a replenishment cycle.