基于组织-任务网络的研发项目工期风险分析——以组织失效为风险因素

在项目工期风险管理领域,大多基于活动工期的不确定性进行研究,对由组织失效引起的工期风险问题较少关注。在对研发项目组织网络和任务网络分析的基础上,提出了研发项目的组织-任务网络模型。借鉴相继故障理论中的耦合映象格子,构建了以组织失效为风险因素的研发项目工期风险分析模型,并对该理论模型进行了数值仿真。结果表明,施加给组织节点的外部扰动达到某一数值即关键扰动阈值时可显著导致项目工期延误,该关键扰动阈值与组织间的耦合度呈负相关,与组织网络的平均度呈正相关,度大袭击比随机袭击和度小袭击更易于导致项目工期风险的发生,且造成工期延误的程度随着组织间耦合度的减小而愈加显著。研究结论为网络化背景下研发项目工期风险管理提供了新的视角。     

考虑自适应行为的研发网络风险传播模型构建及仿真

构建风险视域下研发网络企业自适应行为规则,基于SIS模型构建研发网络风险传播模型,运用数值仿真的方法通过改变模型参数探索在考虑自适应行为的情况下研发网络的风险传播规律,研究结果表明:(1)C1策略增强了网络的层次性和社团强度,一定程度上抑制了研发网络中风险的传播;C2策略下节点之间新连接的建立更多是基于临近性的考量,容易陷入路径依赖和能力陷阱;(2)研发网络企业的自适应行为会导致社团强度的涨落,平均路径长度的下降以及平均聚类系数的增长充分体现出C1策略的有效性。(3)C1策略下,断边概率p与I*之间呈现"U"型相关关系;在C2策略下随着断边概率p的增长I*逐渐降低。(4)在C1策略和C2策略下,随着参数ζ的增长I*也随之增长,可知组织依赖水平是研发网络风险传播控制中需要重点关注的因素。本文揭示了在考虑自适应行为的情况下研发网络的风险传播规律,为网络化运作背景下研发网络治理提供理论依据。     

完善企业研发项目组织形式的策略研究

研发项目的组织是企业技术研发项目管理的核心内容和研发获得成功的关键。目前,国内企业在研发项目中广泛采用的项目式、矩阵式等组织形式还存在临时性、不稳定性等问题,可以从项目团队建设方面进行针对性的改进和完善。     

风险条件下研发项目改进DEA选择模型

研发项目是企业提高竞争力的关键,研发项目选择关系到企业的战略和未来发展趋势。研发项目在生命周期内面临技术风险、突发风险和市场风险,本文考虑到研发项目的风险特征,结合企业战略,构建了基于效率排序的研发项目选择模型。首先,本文对研发项目的有效性和相对于其它备选项目的相对优势进行分析;然后针对数据包络分析模型排序的不足,结合平衡计分卡理念,规范研发项目投入的比例,引入实物期权理论,改进数据包络分析模型,实现了对研发项目的效率排序;最后通过实际算例对模型进行验证、横向对比和敏感性分析,结果表明：相对于标准数据包络分析模型,本文提出的模型具有更高的效率区分度,并且能够敏感地捕捉到研发项目投入和产出的变化对效率影响的演变过程。     

复杂产品系统创新项目风险作用机理研究

复杂产品系统在现代经济发展中发挥着重要作用,其创新的风险性极高.在技术创新风险研究领域,风险作用机理仍然是一个"黑箱"问题,通过运用结构方程建模(sEM)方法进行定量分析,本文发现了复杂产品系统创新项目风险因素与风险后果作用关系的主要路径,这些路径关系反应了复杂产品系统创新项目的风险的横向传递规律.     

风险条件下基于实物期权的研发项目多阶段评价模型

研发项目投资决策是现代企业研发管理的核心内容,对研发项目进行合理、准确的评估,具有高度的战略意义和现实意义.本文基于实物期权理论,考虑到研发项目投资的灵活性,结合研发项目的阶段性特征,综合分析了研发项目寿命期内面临的市场风险、技术风险和突发风险对研发项目潜在现金流的影响,构建了风险条件下研发项目多阶段评价模型.最后通过算例对模型进行验证、横向对比和敏感性分析,证实了模型的正确合理性.     

浅析研发项目的风险管理

在科研项目研发工作中,普遍存在着项目超进度、超预算的现象。因此,项目管理者应当树立正确的风险管理意识,促进项目资源的有效利用,缩短研发周期,以期达到项目研发的目的。在本文中,笔者首先对风险进行解释,然后对风险管理的内涵与功能进行阐述,最后结合研发项目风险的特点提出研发项目的风险管理办法。     

复杂产品系统创新过程中跨组织知识管理的障碍因素

复杂产品系统是由一个创新网络来进行开发和制造的,跨组织的知识管理可以促进该创新过程中知识和信息的流动、扩散和应用。在前人相关研究基础上,通过问卷调查,对复杂产品系统创新过程中知识管理的障碍因素进行了探讨,并指出不同行业的复杂产品系统,在创新过程中知识管理面临的阻碍因素可能有所不同。     

基于多Agent模拟的产品开发与组织设计协同研究

建立产品开发的数学模型并采用多智能体模拟方法对复杂产品开发与组织设计的协同性进行了定量分析.首先,对产品和项目从复杂度和开发的时间压力进行了二维建模;然后对不同类型的组织设计所共同关注的组织要素进行识别和建模;通过一组模拟实验进一步对产品开发与组织设计之间的匹配和一致性关系进行了定量化研究,并总结出复杂产品开发与组织设计的协同关系.研究结果表明,组织应针对产品开发的不同特征对各组织要素进行与之相匹配的设计,产品开发与组织设计的良好的协同性是确保组织取得产品开发高绩效的重要因素,并从微观水平上给出复杂产品开发与基于项目的组织设计的协同方案.     

基于相互影响的复杂可信软件产品需求变化传播研究

需求变化传播分析是实施复杂可信软件产品演化的关键。从可信需求和功能需求之间存在相互影响的视角,本文基于需求关系模型建立、需求依赖设计结构矩阵构造、需求变化传播影响度量与需求变化传播影响分析四个层面,提出了一个基于流程的四阶段需求变化传播分析框架模型;给出了功能需求影响关系矩阵、可信需求影响关系矩阵和需求变化传递矩阵的定义,并凭借矩阵运算描述和分析了需求变化传播的具体实现。最后以航空发动机嵌入式监控软件为例说明了模型和方法的应用。     

DFH小卫星复杂产品创新生态系统的动态演化研究:战略逻辑和组织合作适配性视角

以小卫星龙头企业DFH为案例研究对象,探讨了航天复杂产品创新生态系统定义及其动态演化特征和实现机制.分析表明,航天产品研制要重点关注总体设计环节,其创新主体是由核心企业-供应商-科研单位三方构成的一个微生态系统;航天复杂产品创新生态系统从中心-轮辐式到共生式的动态演化主要结构特征是:参与者行动从围绕核心企业目标转化为围绕共同目标;组织边界由清晰向模糊转变;核心企业的组织角色从领导者到平台创造者.基于价值来源选择和制度稳定方式,深入剖析了航天核心企业游击队战略逻辑和交流型组织合作、复杂性战略逻辑和协同型组织合作间如何在创新生态系统的不同发展阶段进行动态适配,以打开航天复杂产品创新生态系统由中心-轮辐式向共生式转化过程的黑箱.     

数据驱动的产品研发转型：组织惯例适应性变革视角的案例研究

现有研究多聚焦于大数据对产品研发流程与绩效的影响,对基于经验的产品研发转变为数据驱动的产品研发的转型路径、实现机制与转型范式缺乏理论探讨。本文基于组织惯例适应性变革的整合视角,通过对韩都衣舍的纵向案例研究,提出从基于经验的产品研发转变为数据驱动的产品研发的两阶段转型模型,剖析了数据驱动的产品研发转型的组织惯例适应性变革机制,提出了数据驱动的产品研发转型范式理论模型,对"数据驱动"的内涵进行了创新性阐述。本文从转型路径、实现机制与转型范式3个方面构建了数据驱动的产品研发转型理论,研究结论对数字经济时代数据驱动产品创新的企业实践提供了政策启示。     

Structuring Work Distribution for Global Product Development Organizations

This study describes (through an application) a novel approach toward organizing work distribution across globally distributed design and development centers of a product development (PD) organization. While there exist several studies (and modeling applications) for work distribution and allocation for manufacturing and supply chain networks, those related to product development organizations are limited to qualitative suggestions such as offshoring of modular tasks. However, most PD efforts are characterized by significant complexity in information sharing and information dependency among PD tasks (represented by coupling in the system architecture of the firm), thus preventing the identification of modular tasks. Also, redesigning the architecture to introduce modularity has associated risks of costs and product integrity. We demonstrate a methodology to organize work distribution globally in an industrial setting, utilizing the design structure matrix to quantify the system architecture of the firm. Our optimization results show significant cost savings through a restructured PD organization. On analysis of the results, we make two significant observations: (a) while offshoring based on modularity is generally appropriate, it is not the whole answer, as there exists a trade‐off between the efficiency of performing specific PD tasks at the offshore location and the modularity of the task; and (b) firms should successively increase work allocation to the offshore location, benefiting from capability improvements through learning effects.     

A Risk Analysis Model in Concurrent Engineering Product Development

Concurrent engineering has been widely accepted as a viable strategy for companies to reduce time to market and achieve overall cost savings. This article analyzes various risks and challenges in product development under the concurrent engineering environment. A three‐dimensional early warning approach for product development risk management is proposed by integrating graphical evaluation and review technique (GERT) and failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA). Simulation models are created to solve our proposed concurrent engineering product development risk management model. Solutions lead to identification of key risk controlling points. This article demonstrates the value of our approach to risk analysis as a means to monitor various risks typical in the manufacturing sector. This article has three main contributions. First, we establish a conceptual framework to classify various risks in concurrent engineering (CE) product development (PD). Second, we propose use of existing quantitative approaches for PD risk analysis purposes: GERT, FMEA, and product database management (PDM). Based on quantitative tools, we create our approach for risk management of CE PD and discuss solutions of the models. Third, we demonstrate the value of applying our approach using data from a typical Chinese motor company.     

In‐House Globalization: The Role of Globally Distributed Design and Product Architecture on Product Development Performance

Changes in the global economy and technological advances are stimulating increased geographic distribution of new product design and development efforts. For large organizations that design and develop complex products, this geographic distribution has added a new layer of complexity to product development operations. In this empirical study of a large auto manufacturer, we examine the operational performance implications of splitting the design of vehicle subsystems across multiple geographic locations. Our results indicate that global distribution diminishes the chance of completing tasks on time and degrades subsystem design quality. Finally, by examining the interplay between subsystem centrality and global distribution, we found that higher centrality in the product architecture amplifies the impact of global distribution on subsystem error rates.     

面向服务的复杂成形装备产品架构设计与优化

复杂成形装备作为高端制造产业的基础装备,是各产业转型升级和技术进步的重要保障。同时快速发展的互联网与大数据等新兴信息技术已经成为装备制造业创新不可或缺的组成部分,极其深刻地影响着复杂成形装备产业的制造模式、发展战略以及产品的开发方式。本文研究了面向服务的复杂成形装备产品架构设计与优化方法。采用公理化设计的域结构思想,建立需求域、功能域和架构域之间的映射关系;提出了基于QFD的功能生成方法以及功能模型约简方法;利用DMM建立产品架构和服务架构之间的关联关系;利用模块化理论方法,并考虑成本因素对产品架构进行优化。     

Tolerance for Failure and Incentives for Collaborative Innovation

Most organizations employ collaborative teams to manage innovation projects. Although the use of collaborative innovation teams is a good starting point, an organization's ability to innovate can be enhanced by managing risk‐taking behavior through monetary incentive schemes and through an organizational culture that tolerates failure. This article reports the results of two controlled experiments aimed at understanding how tolerance for failure and incentives impact the decisions of individuals engaged in a collaborative innovation initiative. A key element of our experiments is the notion of endogenous project risk, which we define as the explicit link between resources allocated to a project and the likelihood of project success. We observe that when penalties are low, the amount of risk an individual assumes is fairly insensitive to the rewards that are offered. In an analogous result, when individuals make decisions alone (rather than collaboratively), higher tolerance for failure does little to increase the amount of risk an individual is willing to take. Taken together, these results highlight the importance of implicit incentives that are created as a result of project and organizational characteristics.