Supporting the Labor Force Participation of Older Adults: An International Survey of Policy Options

The unprecedented aging of the world's population challenges many institutions, including labor markets and public pension programs. This study was conducted to survey expert opinions regarding conditions and policies that affect employment of older adults. Eighty-nine respondents from 26 nations responded to an Internet survey regarding their own experiences with the aging labor force; factors that encouraged or discouraged labor force participation of older adults; and government responses to these issues. Respondents identified barriers to employment of older adults and described their governments' responses. Findings illuminate a range of current policy options and suggest possible opportunities for innovation.     

发达国家人口老龄化及相关政策研究

发达国家最先进入老龄化社会,劳动力资源短缺、养老保障支出增大及养老服务需求增加是这些国家必须要面对和解决的问题。发达国家通过劳动力自由流动并推行弹性退休政策,以缓解劳动力资源短缺状况;通过实施养老金制度的系列改革,应付不断上涨的养老金支付问题;通过提供多种养老方式及养老服务选择并建立老年长期护理保险制度,以解决养老问题。发达国家老龄化方面的相关政策,为我国应对不断加剧的老龄化提供了很好的借鉴和启示。     

Generalized Population Aging in China: A National-Level Analysis Based on Provincial Simulations

The age structure of the Chinese population is entering a process of generalized aging in which the major age groupings will see a fall in the ratio of younger age groups and a rise in the ratio of older age groups, with varying levels of socioeconomic significance for the entire population system. The implementation of the unconditional two-child policy (quanmian erhai zhengce) has not changed this general trend. The early stage of population aging (2011-2060) is one of the high-speed development of generalized aging with multiple growth peaks and fluctuations in the size, growth rate and internal structure of the major age groupings. From the perspective of generalized population aging, China’s future contains four major systemic demographic dividends and faces four major systemic demographic risks. The early stage of aging is the most important period for the transformation of the population age structure. If society can adjust to the aging trend and the phased nature of the development of this trend, it will be able to seize the initiative in long-term development.     

中国未来农村剩余劳动力转移问题及其出路

中国农村 ,由于人口增加、土地资源有限 ,现代生产方式的日益应用 ,农村人口流动和剩余劳动力转移的规模、压力越来越大。怎样解决问题并稳定社会 ?战略上讲 :从时间、数量上稳定推缓转移农村剩余劳动力 ;创造条件 ,积极快速地转移农村剩余劳动力 ;政府进行宏观调节和微观管理 ,安全地转移农村剩余劳动力 ;推进城市化 ,合理发展小城镇转移农村剩余劳动力 ,是促进经济增长的强劲动力     

Advocacy coalitions and policy change on nuclear power utilization in Taiwan

Before the mid-1980s, the development of nuclear power was regarded as essential to facilitate Taiwan's rapid economic growth. Since 1980s, the feasibility of utilizing nuclear power has been intensively challenged. The policy impact of rise of the anti-nuclear movement and environmental movement in conjunction with democratizing trends is especially evident in the controversy over constructing the Fourth nuclear power plant in Taiwan. Ongoing construction of the plant was halted after the anti-nuclear presidential candidate won in Taiwan's 2000 presidential election. However, the decision to scrap the project was abandoned and the project was resumed in less than four months. This article applies the Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF) to explain and analyze the development of advocacy coalition and policy change on nuclear power utilization in Taiwan. Based on this study, it is argued that the ACF could be more useful for comparative applications if it takes both political context and international influences into account.     

Diversity among Northwest Hispanics

This article analyzes differences in the Northwest Spanish origin population by age, household—family structure, labor force participation, education, and poverty status. Comparisons are made with the white population to see if there are greater differences by county of residence. Contrary to findings in other studies, Hispanic females and more likely to be in the labor force when compared to white females. However, on variables indicating disadvantaged status, Northwest Hispanics follow patterns set in other parts of the country. In addition, there are generally greater differences by county of residence for the Hispanic population than for the white population. The implication of these findings for the status of Northwest Hispanics is discussed.     

Thank God you're here: the coming generation and their role in future‐proofing Australia from the challenges of population ageing

Like much of the industrialised world, Australia's population is ageing, the implications of which are twofold: increasing demand for publicly funded services and a decline in the supply of prime working‐age people. In grappling with the challenges of a diminishing workforce, the Australian Government is currently relying on its migration programs to provide both the much‐needed labour and skills for the resource boom and also to stimulate the economy through population growth. However, there may be another, not yet fully considered solution to the upcoming demographic problem. This paper investigates how the grandchildren of the baby boomers, termed here the Thank God You're Here generation (Gen TGYH), might impact on Australia's predicted workforce shortage. This generation of workers will enter the labour force as the last of the baby boomers reach retirement age, and will not only be bigger in size than preceding generations (Y, X and Baby Boomers), but also potentially be better educated than the retiring generation. This paper will also canvas the opportunities for both Gen TGYH and employers as well as the challenges for policymakers and governments in maximising the opportunity provided by this generation in the Australian economy.     

The Development of State Welfare in the Asian NICs with Special Reference to Taiwan

This paper explores Taiwan's welfare development from its specific politico-economic situation. Although education and public health are well developed in Taiwan and social insurance is expanding to cover more and more Taiwanese people, the govenmental welfare effort is still too low to meet the welfare needs of the public. This is especially so given our discovery that military servicemen and related groups receive over 70% of the welfare expenditure of the central government while the disadvantaged receive only around 3%. Furthermore, political crises are often accompanied by a significant growth in social expenditure, implying that the purpose of state welfare is to maintain the stability of the Taiwanese state rather than to protect the well-being of Taiwanese people. Political isolation forces the Kuomintang (KMT) to secure Taiwan's role in the international community via economic growth. The development of state welfare cannot be allowed to have a negative effect on this highest priority. The limited resources, therefore, are allocated to economic goals as well as to the KMT–state apparatus in order to keep the KMT in power. However, the democratization of Taiwanese politics since the 1980s has forced the KMT to consolidate its legitimacy from the people and the improvement of social welfare is one measure for this purpose. Whether or not Taiwan becomes a Western-style welfare state through the expansion of state welfare in the near future, it furnishes a useful example with which to examine existing welfare theories.     

The Effect of Family Structure on Female Labor Participation – Empirical Analysis based on the 2011 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study

Using 2011 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study baseline data, this paper examines the effects of family structure on labor force participation. In consideration of the possible endogeneity provoked by family structure, we constructed regression models with instrument variables. Intergenerational co‐residence significantly decreases women's labor force participation by 14%, while it has no effect on men's labor supply. One potential reason for this result is residential circumstance. As it is custom to live with elderly parents in multi‐generation families in China, adult women often share the burden of all housework and are responsible for elderly care; thus, cohabiting with parents seems to have negative effects on female labor participation. On the contrary, Chinese culture dictates that men do not spend as much time as women on housework, thus, the probability of working in the labor market is not influenced by residential circumstance. If women were freed from housework responsibilities, the implication is that their participation in the labor force would increase.     

NIMBY opposition and solid waste incinerator siting in democratizing Taiwan

To address Taiwan's waste crisis, the Taiwanese government has embraced incinerators as a major policy instrument for waste disposal. Although the adoption of waste burning policy was not debated much, the siting of incinerators has been vigorously opposed by community-based protest movements, emerged with Taiwan's transition to democracy. In response, both the Kuomintang (KMT) government and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government have used compensation to induce the acceptance of local hosting communities as in other countries. Nevertheless, the use of compensation has never been effective in resolving not-in-my-backyard (NIMBY) conflict without mobilizing local political and government support to suppress NIMBY protests in order to enforce the timely construction of needed incinerators. To accommodate the rising democratic expectation of public participation in deliberations over the incineration waste policy, this article also argues that the role of citizen participation must be addressed to increase public support for incinerator option in managing Taiwan's waste.     

北京市劳动力供求趋势预测

在北京市的发展规划中,经济增长和劳动力配置起着关键作用。经济增长和产业技术特点决定劳动力需求,人口自然增长率和人口净迁入规模决定劳动力供给。本文在对北京市未来25年经济增长的预测基础上,利用三种方法预测了劳动力供给和需求的变动趋势,并根据高、中、低三种方案预测北京市未来25年劳动力市场将逐渐由供给充足向供给紧张的状况转变,同时提示了对策建议。     

How did divorced women fare in the 1990s?: Analysis of work and hourly earnings

This paper presents evidence of changes in employment and real wages in the population of divorced single women during the 1990s. Using data from the U.S. Current Population Survey (CPS) for 1989 and 1999, the paper estimates multivariate models of labor force participation and hourly wages for each year. Differences between years in employment and wages are decomposed into portions attributable to changes in measured characteristics and changes in coefficients of the models. Estimates indicate that full time employment remained virtually unchanged during the decade, and real wages increased by less than 2%. Decomposition of the regression models shows that measured characteristics in this population changed in a direction that would have lead to higher wage growth, but those changes were offset by changes in the model’s coefficients. The result is that earnings experienced only modest growth. In the labor force participation model, changes in measured characteristics worked in the direction of a modest decrease in full time employment, but again coefficient changes provided an offsetting effect.     

The effects of age structure on the labor force and retirement in China

What are the current and future trends in age structure in China as it relates to labor force and retirement? And, what is the impact of the one-child policy on these trends? A trend analysis identifies that as the parents of the one-child family age, China will have an older population, proportionately, with a smaller middle-aged population to support them in the traditional manner, unlike previous generations. A burden will be placed on the working age population as the one-child generation will have to help support two parents if single, and four parents if married, particularly in urban areas. This will also impact rural areas where formal systems of elderly support are not yet fully developed. In terms of labor resources, the elderly may be better supported in old age if they stay in the labor force for a longer period. However, younger workers need employment, while the old must work to offset the lack of formal support, and the potential decline in intergenerational family support due to the changing age-structure. The challenge facing policy-makers is to bring about a balance between employment patterns and support between generations.     

Analysis of China's Unequal Income Distribution from the Perspective of Functional Income Distribution

中国收入分配的不平等在很大程度上表现为功能性收入分配的不平等,即随着经 济的发展,工资性收入占国民收入的比例越来越小,而现阶段中国二元经济结构下的 无限劳动力供给则是其主要原因。在一个具有凯恩斯主义特征的非均衡动态模型框架 下,我们的分析表明,劳动力的无限供给,不仅使工资无法对劳动力市场的供求状况 进行反应,而且使劳动生产率和物价变化对工资的影响也不敏感。这意味着,当存在 着劳动生产率的提高或由经济增长所带动的物价上涨时,工资的提高不够显著,从而 由经济增长或劳动生产率的提高所带来的利益大部分转化为利润而非工资。基于此, 要彻底扭转中国收入分配恶化趋势,根本途径仍然是保持经济的高速增长,加快工业 化和城市化进程,从而使农村剩余劳动力能够尽快被吸收。

关键词: 功能性收入?二元经济?劳动力供给

China's unequal income distribution is to a large extent expressed in unequal functional income distribution, that is, as China's economy develops, the share of wage income in national income falls. The unlimited supply of labor under China's current dual economic structure is the major reason for this. In a disequilibrium dynamic model framework with Keynesian features, empirical analysis shows that the unlimited supply of labor not only prevents wages from responding to supply and demand situation in the labor market, but also makes them insensitive to labor productivity and price changes. This suggests that when there is a rise in labor productivity or prices following economic growth, the rise in wages may not be sufficiently marked. The benefits derived from economic growth or labor productivity increases have been, to a very large extent, converted into profits and not wages. Therefore, if we are to reverse China's worsening income distribution, our fundamental path should remain the maintenance of high‐speed growth and the acceleration of urbanization and industrialization so that surplus rural labor can be absorbed as soon as possible.     

Labor force participation among Asian immigrant women: Findings from the 2007 American Community Survey

Using a nationally representative sample of Asian immigrant women in the USA (N = 33,032), we examined ethnic variations in labor force participation and different predictors of labor force participation among six Asian ethnic subgroups, including Chinese, Filipino, Asian Indian, Vietnamese, Korean, and Japanese. Our findings indicated that having a higher level of education, fewer children under age 5, US citizenship, a longer length of residence in the USA, and a better English proficiency were significantly related to higher rates of labor force participation among certain ethnic subgroups. The different predictors of labor force participation by ethnic subgroups were further analyzed in cultural contexts.     

New Poverty in the Era of Globalization The Case of Taiwan

Over the past decade, Taiwan has witnessed a rapid increase in its population of newly impoverished individuals. Driving this increase is the shift of Taiwan's traditional production centers overseas, especially to Mainland China. Using a qualitative research approach to explore this new phenomenon, the research finds that most of the new poor are able and hope to work, but suffer from job instability and/or the ability to find any reemployment. If the government does not intervene in a timely manner to create a stronger safety net for them, their families may become caught in a long-term poverty trap.     

充分就业:和谐社会的重要标志

我国人口基数大,新增劳动力、国企下岗分流人员增加和农村劳动力转移的现象并存,呈现出劳动力供求总量矛盾与结构性矛盾交织、就业压力长期存在的局面。同时,存在多种影响充分就业的客观因素,使得就业的数量与就业质量受到严峻的挑战。因此,实行"经济发展与充分就业并重、效率与公平均衡"的方针,大力发展生产力,推进技术创新,鼓励非公经济、第三产业和中小企业的发展,保护劳动者的合法权益,为构建和谐社会奠定坚实基础。     

Social risks and public pension in South Korea

This study investigated how traditional and new social risks have emerged in South Korea and how policies have coped with them, focusing on the public pension program. Using national statistics data and publicly published government reports, factors such as marital status, economic activity, and the insurance trend of the public pension by age and gender for the last decade were examined. Main results are as follows. Women's labor force participation has slightly increased; however, career discontinuity remains and new family risks have increased. Second, women's public pension coverage as a percentage of the employment rate has substantially increased, implying that old labor market risks have largely been reduced for female workers. Third, the public pension insured rate among male workers has decreased to a small degree, which implies that new labor market risks are increasing for male workers. Consequently, the gender gap in risk has been reduced; however, policies established to deal with new risks have introduced some gender effects     

Optimizing the “demographic dividend” in young developing countries: The role of contractual savings and insurance for financing education

Many developing regions are facing a youth bulge, meaning that young people comprise the highest proportion of the population. These regions are at risk of losing what could be a tremendous opportunity for economic growth and development if they do not capitalize on this young and economically productive population, also referred to as the “demographic dividend,” defined as the increase in economic growth that tends to follow increases in the ratio of the working‐age population – essentially the labor force – to dependents. Nations undergoing this population transition have the opportunity to capitalize on the demographic dividend if the right social, economic, and human capital policies are in place. In particular, Sub‐Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and North Africa are at risk of losing the demographic dividend. These regions face high youth unemployment, low primary school completion, and low secondary school enrollment. This results in an undereducated and unskilled segment of the population. The prohibitive costs of education prevent young people from finishing school, thereby entering the labor market unprepared. This article presents a case for youth‐focused financial inclusion programs as one of the antidotes to the masses of poor, undereducated, and low‐skilled young people swelling the labor markets of poor developing countries.     

How Rules Matter: Electoral Reform in Taiwan*

Objectives. This article is a test of general electoral theory in the case of Taiwan's 2008, postreform legislative election. In light of Taiwan's electoral reform, I test several hypotheses related to choice in electoral design and winning conditions, effective number of parties, proportionality, and regionalism. Methods. I run a simulation of the new rules and districting using the previous (2004) election results and compare this to the actual results. By comparing simulated and actual outcomes, I can compare theoretically‐driven, a priori expectations with election outcomes. Results. Primary findings are that a dominant seat share for the Nationalist Party, decline in third‐party representation, and disproportionality were largely predicated on the transition to a majoritarian system. Conclusion. General electoral theory holds robust predictive power in the case of Taiwan.