The impact of de-globalization on China’s economic transformation: Evidence from manufacturing export

The economic transformation is an important policy practice of economic development in China. In the context of “deglobalization”, it is critically important to better understand the impacts of increasing trade costs on China’s economic transformation from the perspective of firms’ exports. In this study, we measure the trade costs of specific manufacturing sectors and provinces. We employ Heckman (1979) two-stage method and the data from China’s manufacturing firms to investigate the impacts of trade costs on heterogeneous firms’ exports. Based on these results, we further explore the impacts of trade costs on China’s economic transformation and discuss policy advisories. Our results indicate that the increase in trade costs have adverse impacts on China’s economic transformation. Specifically, increasing trade costs hinder firms’ export behaviors and export scales. However, these impacts are heterogeneous on different types of firms, which refers to the ownership reforms, manufacturing sector upgrades and coordinated regional development. In particular, increasing trade costs do not affect coordinated regional development in China, but they are not conducive to ownership reforms and manufacturing sector upgrades. Altogether, our findings provide the first evidence on the impacts of trade costs on China’s economic transformation from the perspective of firms’ exports, and also shed light on policy implications for promoting firms’ exports and economic transformation in the “deglobalization” period.     

The demand for protection against exports of newly industrializing countries

Exports of manufacturers from newly industrializing countries have increased dramatically in recent years. Yet, in the importing countries—largely the highly developed, “old” industrial countries—the NICs' exports constitute even now an almost insignificant proportion of total imports of manufacturers. Is there, then, some particular reason why the exports concerned seem to be strongly resented by the importing countries, and particularly likely to be faced with trade barriers? The paper examines this issue, and identifies four possible sources of demand for such protection: (1) the factor content of the NICs' exports—specifically, their relative intensity in unskilled and semiskilled labor; (2) the nature of the exported goods, which consist largely of final consumer goods rather than of machinery and equipment; (3) the NICs' lack of retaliatory power; and (4) the context of a relatively stagnant world economy, suffering from high unemployment, which the expansion of manufactured exports from the NICs has had to face.     

核心-外围论对中国的分析--贸易条件-贸易结构-国民经济结构分析

核心-外围论一定程度上反映了在开放的经济中发达国家和发展中国家的关系.文章从贸易条件角度,对核心-外围论进行了实证分析,并使用包括净贸易条件、收入贸易条件和要素贸易条件,对我国贸易状况进行了具体分析.贸易结构是贸易条件的重要影响因素,而贸易结构是依附于生产结构的,经济或生产结构决定了贸易结构的合理程度.文章在此基础上分析核心-外围论在中国的适用性及其意义.     

Macroeconomic impacts of Chinese currency appreciation on China and the Rest of World: A global CGE analysis

This paper analyzes the ex-ante short-term impacts of the Chinese RMB appreciation on the Chinese and world economy, using a novel approach of modeling nominal exchange rate adjustment in the GTAP, a global CGE model. Scenario results show that Chinese economy will be affected negatively, with lower real GDP, lower employment rates, and a decline in the trade surplus. Chinese currency appreciation has positive impact on the GDP of the major countries and regions, although by a small margin. With higher Chinese exchange rate, trade balance for other trading partner countries improves with the exception of the U.S.     

Input-occupancy-output models of the non-competitive type and their application - an examination of the China-US trade surplus

本文构建了一种能够反映中国加工贸易特点的非竞争（进口）型投入占用产出模型,提出了一个国家全部出口与分部门、分大类商品的单位出口对国内增加值和就业的拉动效应的计算方法,从数学上证明了出口总值等于出口商品所包含的完全国内增加值与完全进口额之和,并据此编制了2002年中美两国的非竞争（进口）型投入占用产出表,测算和分析了中美两国出口对各自国内增加值和就业的影响。     

Fruit safety regulations in the transatlantic region: How are Africa’s exports faring with the regulations?

The regulations of fruit trade for safe consumption are taken seriously in the EU and US markets to protect the health of the consumers, animals, plants and environmental safety, and thereby reduce health expenditures. The fruit safety regulations as trade policy measures could be either trade-promoting or -impeding. The extensiveness and intensiveness of fruit safety regulations in these markets often have consequences for exporters from Africa and their desire to attain sustainable economic development. The effects of fruit safety regulations are heterogeneous across economic agents. To this end, many stakeholders in Africa’s food system have perceived compliance with these food regulatory measures as necessary conditions to access the developed countries’ markets, particularly in the EU and US. Besides, the competitiveness of Africa’s fruit exports has been impacted by the preponderance of the measures despite its comparative advantages in the fruits sub-sector. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the impact of the EU and US sanitary and phytosanitary measures on Africa’s fruit exports. The empirical strategy involves the use of an augmented gravity model which explore the disentangling of these impact at the extensive and intensive margins of exports. Given the nature of trade data and specifically for this study, the zero trade flows are considered at both margins of exports for 45 African countries from 1995 to 2017. This study finds that the US market is more trade-impeding to Africa’s fruit exports than the EU market. Thus, Africa needs policies tweaking in the fruit value chain quality infrastructure, fruits’ quality and standards enforcement, capacity development, continuous update and modernisation of the fruits’ safety laws, directives and/or regulations. This will enhance the fruits’ quality to propel their access to the transatlantic markets.     

中国对越南经济发展的作用

历史上中国与越南具有类似的历史渊源,在经济与社会方面保持着较为密切的联系。中国经济对越南经济的影响举足轻重,尤其是中国的改革开放对越南经济产生深远的影响。随着中国—东盟自由贸易区建设进程的加快,双边贸易、中国对越南投资等方面得以不断深化发展,使两国的经济联系更加紧密。     

金融危机影响中国外贸出口的传导机制及政策建议

从金融危机的发展态势来看,金融危机的影响日益从虚体经济迅速扩散到实体经济,从发达国家扩散到发展中国家。对于中国来说,外需减弱导致出口急剧下降,工业经济受到了十分严重的影响。金融危机影响中国出口的传导机制主要有6个方面：需求传导机制、汇率传导机制、贸易政策传导机制、价格传导机制、贸易融资传导机制和贸易链传导机制。为了应对外需减弱对我国出口的影响,我国政府应该继续实施市场多元化战略,大力开拓新的国际市场;重视人民币汇率问题,呼吁建立新型国际储备货币;高度重视贸易摩擦问题,构建良好的国际经济环境;加大对企业的融资力度,帮助出口企业转型;大力发展内需,加快经济发展模式转变。     

Trade and innovation policies: Coexistence and spillovers

The debate over trade’s role in growth and inequality in recent years seems to center on the question of whether the gains from trade are worth the disruption from necessary adjustments. In particular static gains from trade for advanced economies are generally estimated to be small, while empirical evidence around growing employment and inequality challenges suggest trade’s role may be larger than previously thought, though still only one of many contributing factors. The focus on static gains though likely understates substantially the dynamic gains, as trade’s role in spurring faster economic growth, in both developed and developing countries through competitive and innovative forces. The dynamic, competition and innovation angle suggests a need for industrial policies to be revisited and examine how spillovers play out in the global economy. At the same time significant technological disruption is occurring through digital technology, big data, and machine learning/AI techniques that often require advanced capabilities and have significant competition implications. In recent COVID-19 pandemic policy responses governments have dramatically increased spending and liquidity to support stressed firms and households and encouraged many countries to consider strategic efforts to build certain domestic capabilities with the aim of reducing dependence on trade for emergency related goods and services. This paper provides insights on the specific role of innovation policies, and they differ from and are similar to traditional industrial policies, and what that might mean for future trade rules.     

The cost of war: Impact of sanctions on Russia following the invasion of Ukraine

We use a computable general equilibrium model of world trade to quantify the possible impact of economic sanctions imposed by Western and other countries in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. If sender countries chose 100 % import tariffs and export taxes on trade with Russia, Russia’s GDP would decline by 3–7 % due to the resulting significant reduction in exports. By contrast, the GDP loss for those countries would be 0.2 % for the European economies, but only about 0.05 % for Japan. Although unlikely, the effect of China’s participation in the sanctions would be more significant than that of India. There are concerns about food and energy crises due to economic sanctions against Russia, but the effect on food supplies would not be a serious problem for either senders or third parties. The impact on energy supplies would affect all senders to some extent; for example, there would be a 3% reduction of energy consumption and a 3–4 % rise in electricity and town gas prices in Japan.     

China’s Opening Up: Idea,Process and Logic*

China’s opening up since 1978 has been a historical process of continuous expansion and deepening. In the course of this process, Chinese policymakers and the mass of the people have gradually deepened their understanding of reform and opening up, and China’s relations with the world, especially its role in the world, have been constantly adjusted. At the beginning of reform and opening up, China adapted to and was integrated into the international economic system; it then became engaged in participating in and improving that system, and then became an advocate and leader in the reform of the international system. Moreover, in practice, an incremental series of coherent open economic policies and theories with Chinese characteristics that facilitate an open economy have come into being. Under the guidance of Deng Xiaoping Theory of reform and opening up, China’s practice of opening up to the outside world is not only a good fit with China’s traditional trade theory, the Huainanzi/Sima Qian Theorem, under which people benefit by exchanging their surplus goods for those that they lack, but is also explicable in terms of modern economic trade theories. With the entry of socialism with Chinese characteristics into the new era and profound changes in the international environment, China still needs to open further to lead and promote mutual and shared openness for all countries in the world, so as to create good international conditions for promoting the construction of a shared future for mankind and building a world of lasting peace, universal security, common prosperity, openness, inclusiveness, cleanliness and beauty.     

金融危机下汇率变动对失业率变动的相关性研究

在当前国际金融危机下,汇率对经济的影响,已从直接的进出口贸易行业深入到了其他非贸易性的行业;汇率的波动,在一定程度上,也影响到了宏观经济的波动,进而使得国家的投资、产出和消费受到了影响,这种传导机制最终会带来就业的冲击。通过对最新数据的线性回归分析发现,当前主要国家(地区)汇率的波动性对失业产生重要影响。     

南海周边主要国家海底文化遗产保护政策分析及启示

我国海底文化遗产面临着的保护压力不仅来自国内,也来自国外,尤其是南海周边主要国家的开放商业打捞政策导致的挤压效应。联合国教科文组织在《保护水下文化遗产公约》中确定的＂就地保护＂和＂禁止商业开发＂原则在现实的压力下很难实现。目前,我国海底文化遗产保护只能依靠国内立法和《联合国海洋法公约》,而南海周边主要国家在制定海底文化遗产保护政策时都考虑了各种价值的平衡,这些国家平衡各种价值的经验值得我国借鉴参考。我国海底文化遗产具体情况千差万别,应当在摸清大致情况后制定具体而灵活的保护政策。     

Effects of China's recent development in the rest of the world: With special attention to Latin America

In one respect, China's economic awakening is bad for those economies that have been technological ahead of China and that China is now catching up to. The special feature of China's advance in recent decades has been its harnessing a high volume of Chinese saving to domestic investment projects involving technology transfer through cooperative arrangements with overseas corporations in the West, especially the US. The openness of export markets to China has served to amplify the resulting investment opportunities. The result has been a phenomenal increase of productivity and of the supply of exports. The negative effect for the US and other advanced economies in the West stems from the resulting import substitution by China, thus a decline in overseas demand for US exports, hence a deterioration in the US terms of trade and resulting decline in the real factor rewards that US producers can afford to pay to domestic inputs, including labour, particularly low-skill manufacturing labor. Of course, there are in other respects some important gains for the West from China's commercial success and economic development.     

The Influence of “Made in China” on the Great Moderation of the Global Economy：An Empirical Test Based on Value Chains*

We have collected data on China’s 22 main trading partners for 1984-2012 and used System GMM to study the influence of “Made in China” on the “Great Moderation” of the global economy. Our research shows that although trade scale, real effective exchange rate, oil prices, fixed capital investment and other variables have significantly expanded global economic volatility, “Made in China” has markedly restrained output growth rate fluctuations in countries around the world and price fluctuations in developed countries, helping the global economy develop with “high growth, low volatility.” “Made in China” is a long-term variable in the context of the global value chain. China needs to take advantage of global value chain restructuring to further upgrade and develop processing and manufacturing industry and expand its presence in the international market. It could choose to adopt a “mirror strategy” and launch trade sanctions targeting counterpart industries or enterprises to counter irrational trade sanctions from the developed countries. At the same time, however, it is important for China to make its own contribution to improve global economic governance and building a new international economic order in the era of global value chains by strengthening its policy coordination with other countries.     

基于中欧航线的北极航道经济性分析

随着全球气候变暖,北极航道全面通航的可能性日益增加,引起相关航运与贸易国家的关注。北极航道的开通,将使中欧间的海运航线大幅缩短,可以节约营运成本,降低航行风险,并能增加新的货种。鉴于此,本文通过对现有中欧航线与北极航道的经济性进行比较,从航线里程、船舶成本两方面论证了北极航道通航的经济性及其对我国对外贸易和航运的重要意义。     

日本帝国主义殖民统治下的台湾地区阶级分析

本文利用台湾“中央研究院”的“历史人口计划”所提供的日据时期户籍数据库,运用新韦伯派阶级分类法,分析不同出生世代的阶级结构,并以多元逻辑回归统计模型估计其阶级流动的几率。研究发现,无论在农业部门还是工业部门,越晚出生的世代(尤其是1895年后的出生者)无产阶级化的趋势越明显,而且糖业资本集中发展的中南部地区比北部地区更明显;其次,工业部门的本土雇主与自雇者大幅减少,显示日本垄断资本对台湾地区本土资本的竞争优势导致台湾地区工商业部门的无产化;第三,农业部门人口比例衰退的趋势在20世纪20年代之后逐渐稳定下来,这可能是“米糖相克”与家户生计逻辑造成的结果;第四,一方面受“农业台湾”的日本殖民政策限制,另一方面受家庭生计逻辑的影响,台湾地区的专业管理阶级或资本家在子女分户时仍经常划分农地给后嗣,因此出现了工业部门人口回流农业部门的向下流动的特殊现象,但已经靠农业就业的人口却难以流向工业部门。本文的贡献在于重建历史资料来研究日据时期台湾地区的阶级流动,并呈现工业国家之外殖民地社会的阶级不平等。     

2011年越南经济发展回顾

2011年,越南的经济伴随着高通胀在重重困难中发展,但仍然保持了较快增长,贸易逆差减少是其一个亮点。越南对外贸易和投资步伐不断加快,特别是加快了对周边国家和对非洲市场的开拓。     

The Labor Law and the Preferential Treatment for Small Businesses

Tens of millions of small businesses, including countless individually run businesses, are operating in China. Hampered by their scale and limited job creation capacity, China’s small businesses need a more flexible approach to employment. In fact, their small size and their lack of technical expertise and standardized management mean that these small businesses find it hard to operate in strict compliance with labor laws in the way larger businesses do. Some other countries and regions tend to give preferential treatment to small businesses, exempting them from some of the provisions of labor law. China could consider changing the “one size fits all” provisions of its labor law to give preferential treatment to small businesses with regard to terminating employment contracts, drawing up regulations, signing contracts, and anti-discrimination in employment requirements.     

The employment effects of trade in manufactured products between developed and developing countries

This paper examines prospective changes in employment associated with the expected expansion of trade in manufactured goods between the developed and developing countries over the next decade. It appears that, on balance, the developed countries would experience net employment creation as a result of this trade, and there would be only relatively small decline of employment in their import-substituting industries. In turn, the developing countries would gain employment through increased export that would further contribute to their economic growth, with favorable indirect effects on employment.