我国商品住宅价格调控政策效果研究

1998年以来,我国房地产行业发展迅速,并逐步成为国民经济的支柱产业,极大地推动了我国的经济增长。但房价的过快增长也增加了人们的生活压力,并对经济运行造成不利影响。为了抑制房价的过快增长,国家推出了一系列的调控政策,包括金融政策、土地政策和税收政策。2010年政府推出了限购政策,通过抑制需求来控制房价。研究表明:1998至2002年的调控政策取得了较好的效果;2003至2008年调控效果不佳;2008年底至2009年政府并没有对房价进行有力调控;2009年末至2012年初,限购令的效果非常明显。     

The long-term consequences of youth housing for childbearing and higher education

The lack of housing in areas where young adults have greater opportunities to study and get work complicates young adults’ entry into the adulthood. Difficulties in accessing housing may therefore delay childbearing and may negatively have an effect on education opportunities. To increase housing accessibility, some municipalities have earmarked apartments for young adults. These “youth dwellings” are criticized for being small and not necessarily facilitating family formation and fertility, better suiting students’ needs. We have in this paper compared the long-term pattern of childbearing and education for young adults that entered their housing market through small cheap youth housing with those youngsters that received a rental apartment from the ordinary housing stock. To be able to draw the conclusion that differences in fertility and educational pattern between these two groups comes from the different housing situation and not from differences in in preferences when it comes to childbearing or individual prerequisites for higher education, we have used a geocoded data and information on the individual’s family background as well as a matching technique to create a comparison group that are similar to the treatment group in several aspects. The present results indicate that building affordable housing that is small and space efficient is sufficient and positive if the aim is to promote higher education. Affordable housing is on the other hand not enough to promote childbearing, instead, it seems to inhibit childbearing until there is a possibility of moving on in the housing career. Our result also indicates that the next step need not necessarily be homeownership, as earlier research has indicated. Entering the housing market via youth housing and then being able to move on to rental accommodation in the ordinary housing market also seems to have a positive effect on overall childbearing, although moving to cooperative housing or owned housing has an even larger effect.     

The impact of government spending on Ireland’s housing and residential market – Targeted vs economy-wide stimulus

The Irish residential property market is currently characterized by a considerable structural deficiency in housing supply compared to the underlying level of demand. The lack of housing has led to several economic and social problems in Ireland. The imbalance between supply and demand has led to both house prices and rents increasing faster than household incomes. Recent policy initiatives by the Irish Government have outlined plans for significant spending aimed at increasing the numbers of housing completions to tackle these issues. This paper examines the impact of government spending on housing supply using a structural econometric model of the Irish economy with a specific construction block. Within our econometric analysis, we compare the results of an economy wide versus a sector specific government stimulus on the property market. Our simulations suggest that, in order to achieve social and economic goals like increasing the number of dwellings and making housing more affordable by containing house price inflation, a targeted policy such as that described in the Irish Government's Housing for All plan may be preferable to an economy-wide stimulus.     

房地产限购政策实施效果的实证分析——基于双重差分模型的估计

房地产限购政策对遏制房价过快上涨、抑制投资性购房需求具有重要意义。运用我国70个大中城市2009年9月至2011年10月的面板数据,采用双重差分模型对房地产市场限购政策的实施效果进行了系统而严格的实证研究。结果发现,房地产限购政策的实施对我国相关城市的房价有大约1.88%的负面效应,但是短期效果并不明显。     

The Relationship between Urban Development and Housing Prices in China

This article analyzes the relationship between urban development and housing prices in China. When comparing data from three recent consecutive years, with some exceptions, the result shows that in general, housing price is determined by urban development in most urban regions. The article summarizes strategies for affordable housing development and housing policy in China, and analyzes the implications of this study for social work and education. It advocates comprehensive new thinking on a broader topic: how to maintain healthy housing prices and stable development in China.     

长沙市经济适用住房货币化补贴的实践与思考

长沙出台了一系列安居政策，其中有一项重要的举措就是停止新建经济适用住房，全面实施经济适用住房货币化补贴方式，这是一次重大的变革和尝试。分析长沙实施经济适用住房货币化补贴的背景、具体做法，详细剖析经济适用住房兴建与货币化补贴的利弊，提出实施经济适用住房货币化补贴要注意的几个问题。     

The impact of India’s food security policy on domestic and international rice market

Food security policy making in India is at crossroads. India has emerged as a leading rice exporter. The Government of India has introduced the National Food Security Act which requires 33.6 million tons of rice per year for its public food distribution system. In this study, we modeled India’s rice market and analyzed policy implications of the long-term impact of India’s food security act on domestic and international rice market. We developed a structural economic demand and supply model for India’s rice market and further added subsidy equations to trace the consequence of National Food Security Act on domestic rice consumption and on the international market. We specifically focus on three different scenarios: subsidy as price effect, subsidy as inelastic income effect, and subsidy as elastic income effect under the broader framework of National Food Security Act. We found that at the end of the projection period (2024–2025), as a result of rice subsidy program, the consumption of rice increases significantly in the case of price effect while the inelastic income effect has no or less impact on production, consumption, and export of rice. Hence, the policy implication of our study is that if the objective of the National Food Security Act is to increase consumption then it needs to be implemented as price effect.     

基于学区房现状浅谈教育地产的发展

＂学区房＂是当今购房热中的常见词汇,成为市场需求的关注热点。基于此,有必要把教育与地产结合,进行教育地产的开发,将其作为我国房地产市场健康平稳发展的突破点。分析学区房当前的现状、高价格原因以及教育地产发展的必然性,得出教育地产是缓解教育资源供给不足的有效途径,并阐述当前教育地产发展模式及存在的问题,针对问题提出相应的政策建议。     

Conditionality in the context of housing-led homelessness policy: Comparing Australia’s Housing First agenda to Scotland’s “rights-based” approach

Homelessness services and policy have historically tended to be organised by an explicitly conditional logic, wherein people experiencing homelessness must prove their “housing readiness” before accessing settled housing. This model has been robustly challenged in recent decades by “housing-led” approaches that ostensibly eschew conditionality and prioritise the rapid rehousing of people experiencing homelessness. Various countries now include housing-led approaches in the national policy frameworks, including Australia, which overhauled its approach to homelessness in 2008, and Scotland, where a housing-led approach is supported by a legal right to housing for homeless households. Notwithstanding this policy shift, conditionality remains an enduring feature of responses to homelessness in both jurisdictions. This paper sheds light on this phenomenon by comparing the Australian experience with that of Scotland. We demonstrate how conditionality remains a feature of both jurisdictions; however, there is greater effort in Scotland to identify and minimise conditionality, whereas in Australia it is able to persist relatively unchallenged. We conclude with some reflections on what Australia can learn from Scotland’s relative success, highlighting the importance of a national-level policy framework and an adequate affordable housing supply.     

Did monetary policy fuel the housing bubble? An application to Ireland

This paper provides empirical evidence of the role of the euro in the genesis of the recent Irish financial-economic crisis. By using a Taylor rule we measure the appropriateness of the ECB’s one-size-fits-all policy rate for the Irish economy. A counterfactual analysis suggests that the Irish interest rate should have been on average 6.5% higher. Using a BVAR and multivariate housing model, we provide econometric evidence that under an alternative sovereign monetary policy, the average house price would have been 25–30% lower just before the housing bust. In addition, it shows that a monetary policy tailored to the needs of the member state prevents housing prices from dramatically increasing.     

Homelessness Prevention Policy: A Case Study

Although serious and long‐term commitment to homelessness prevention is evident in some countries in the form of primary prevention measures, it is not clear whether a strong shift has already been made from secondary to primary prevention. It is argued here that after almost two decades of literature regarding the ‘prevention turn’ in homelessness policy, one may speak of primary prevention in the prevention stage, and add secondary and tertiary prevention to each of the other three stages of homelessness policy – early, emergency, and long‐term intervention strategies. Yet, there must be an attempt at primary prevention, which is more difficult to maintain, mainly for financial reasons. Political will is one key to success in doing this. Homelessness prevention policies are explained in this article using the case study of Israel's policies in 1948–2010. The findings indicate that Israel dealt with a high risk of homelessness in the 1950s and again in the 1990s through primary homelessness prevention by intervening in the housing market and providing cash assistance. Subsequently, after an overall homelessness policy was first published in Israel in 1996, prevention almost disappeared. However, it seems that, since then, prevention still manifests itself in the form of secondary prevention measures, such as public assistance benefits and housing subsidies. Tertiary prevention also seems to exist, addressing the more entrenched nature of homelessness by means of permanent supportive housing. This article shows that where there is a will there may be a way for prevention.     

The impact of the Soviet Union upon the U.S. feed/livestock sector— An assessment

In this article, the impact of volatile Soviet Union corn imports on the U.S. feed/livestock sector is analyzed using an econometric model. The model's attention to supply response when feed price changes enables it to determine the nature of the effect of exogenous shocks across feed and livestock sectors. The model is used in historical simulation to demonstrate the effects of actual and alternative paths of variable Soviet import demand and to explore the difficulties of deriving a stabilizatior policy for these linked sectors.     

Do people respond to low probability risks? Evidence from tornado risk and manufactured homes

Whether people perceive and respond to low-probability natural hazards is a research question of considerable policy relevance. We obtain evidence by considering the response of housing choice to tornado risk for manufactured homes. The vulnerability of manufactured housing, combined with its growing share of the U.S. housing market, has led to proposed mandates for community shelters in mobile home parks. Expected utility theory, however, predicts that households should account for tornado risk in their housing choice. We test for an effect of tornado risk on manufactured housing demand using cross-sectional state data, as well as counties in three tornado prone states. We find that people do respond to tornado risk; our estimates indicate that each expected annual state tornado death per million residents reduces demand for manufactured homes by about 3%. The estimated quantity effect is consistent with the market studies of the price elasticity of manufactured homes.     

Social work practice in nursing homes: creativity,leadership, and program development

Housing policy in China has undergone profound changes ever since the dismantlement of the in-kind welfare housing system in 1998. A modern housing system has emerged in China in line with a rapidly growing real estate sector. Meanwhile, China is also plagued with similar housing problems that western governments faced during their industrialization and urbanization and are facing now. In response, the Chinese government has attempted to tackle housing problems by imposing strict regulations on the real estate sector, introducing new affordable housing schemes, and channelling and even limiting housing consumption behaviours. However, the outcome has proved to be meagre. The unsound outcome has driven further policy changes. This paper presents an updated trajectory of housing policy development in the post-reform era. It concludes by discussing implications of housing policy changes on social development and argues that housing policy in China is at a crossroads and is ready for a major overhaul.     

Advocacy for disabled children and young people: benefits and dilemmas

Recent policy has emphasized the need for advocacy services for children and young people, developments that have gone hand‐in‐hand with greater levels of participation of young people in decision‐making. Advocacy for disabled young people is especially important, as they are a particular vulnerable group and have, traditionally, been even more excluded from decisions about matters affecting their lives. This paper reports the findings, as they relate to disabled young people, from a study that investigated the role of advocacy for looked‐after children and children in need. The paper highlights some of the benefits of advocacy for disabled children, the dilemmas facing advocates between advocating and acting in someone's ‘best interests’, identifying the client and the boundaries between advocacy and social work. It argues that time given to establish a close relationship with a disabled child or young person is crucial if advocacy is to be effective and participation in decisions affecting their lives a reality.     

Codependent Cycles of Chinese Inflation

A test and decomposition of the codependent cycles of the consumer price index (CPI), agricultural producer price index (APPI) and M2 reveals that the sharp cyclical fluctuations in agricultural producer prices largely stem from the grain price fluctuations induced by factors such as land enclosure and the impact on APP of the abrupt changes in pork prices and other factors. Therefore, changing the current policy of grain purchasing price subsidies to one of subsidies to grain production and sales will reduce the impact of grain prices and other factors on APP and inflation. The weak cyclic codependence among APP, CPI and M2, along with the strong cyclic codependence between M2 and CPI, has given rise to a “shuttle-shaped” intersection of cyclic elements. This indicates that China’s monetary policy goal has been alternating between curbing inflation and stimulating growth. When the APP cycle is basically stable, China can implement a moderately easing monetary policy to stimulate economic growth, but this must be based on a 1.5 or so margin of increase in the codependent cycle components of M2. When APP rises sharply or is in the rising phase of cycle elements, China should emphasize APP control, and should delay the moderately easing monetary policy till the APP cycle becomes stable or is in the downlink phase.     

Audit of advertised housing and support vacancies for people with disabilities in Australia

The introduction of Australia’s National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) has changed the way housing and support are delivered to Scheme participants. NDIS policy reform focuses on coordinated housing and support responses. These responses are guided by the Specialist Disability Accommodation (SDA) Rule, Framework and pricing and Supported Independent Living payments. To date, the National Disability Insurance Agency (NDIA) has only released limited data to understand SDA demand or inform market development. To understand changing housing and support approaches and the impact of NDIS housing policy on market responses, this research had three aims: (1) to examine the locations and characteristics of housing and support vacancies advertised for people with disability; (2) to investigate funding sources for, and providers of, these supported housing options; and (3) to examine the proportion and source of government, nonprofit and private sector funding for housing and support developments advertised. An audit was undertaken of all advertisements on the two main non‐government organisation Websites that list Australian supported housing vacancies. A total of 562 property adverts were reviewed in March 2019. Audit findings are considered in relation to the current NDIS policy context. Possible housing futures and market gaps for people with significant and permanent disability in Australia are discussed.     

Contentment and Suffering: the Impact of Australia's Housing Policy and Tenure on Older Australians

Housing policy in Australia historically has focused on facilitating homeownership and creating some buffer for those households that are not homeowners. This paper explores the implications of this policy for older Australians. What is argued is that housing tenure has become a crucial divide and that older Australians who have not had the good fortune to access homeownership or public / community housing and who are dependent on the private rental sector as a result, often find themselves in desperate circumstances. The argument is developed that the failure to put in place a housing policy which would give all citizens the ability to access adequate and affordable housing, has led to a situation where a substantial and increasing number of older Australians have untenable housing costs and minimal disposal income. The article concludes that the present policy initiatives aimed at addressing the housing affordability crisis will have little impact on the situation of older people who are currently in housing stress.     

Economics of (oil) price politics: Penalizing price changes

This article studies intertemporal monopolistic pricing strategies when demand is dynamic and when price volatility may harm other producer objectives, e.g. the political good will for an international cartel. The major implications from this framework are that the introduction of a penalty for price changes may actually change an otherwise (at least locally) monotonic policy into a (transiently) oscillatory strategy; on the other hand, penalizing price changes smooths the price policy when demand is convex and the optimal strategy would otherwise be extremely volatile. But, then, all various types of solutions—cyclical and even unstable solutions—may occur.     

Social work in a conflict context: Challenges facing social workers with indigenous inhabitants of unrecognised villages in Israel

This qualitative study presents the experiences of social workers whose clients are the inhabitants of unrecognised Bedouin Arab villages in Israel. It used in‐depth, semi‐structured interviews with 25 participants, recruited by the snowball method. These social workers reported that they are caught between their personal and professional values, on the one hand, and employer regulations, government policy and government law, on the other – which greatly limits their ability to fulfil their professional role. The social workers also comment that they are working in a ‘grey area’ in which the government’s policy is unclear. This adds another layer of complexity to their work and reveals the differential implementation of critical social work principles by social workers with different cultural identities.