Social stability challenged by Covid-19: Pandemics,inequality and policy responses

The public health measures implemented to limit the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to affect economic inequalities. In this paper we first provide a theoretical framework to analyse how income inequality contributes shaping the trade-off between economic lockdown and contagion. Our empirical analysis on EU countries shows that the lockdown is likely to significantly increase inequality and poverty and that the magnitude of the change is larger in more unequal countries. To avoid social collapse, countries must consider inequality as an additional source of fragility, while supranational, coordinated health and fiscal policies are needed in the interest of all European economies.     

Response to the COVID-19: Understanding implications of government lockdown policies

The rising number of COVID-19 cases and economic implications of lockdown measures indicate the tricky balancing act policy makers face as they implement the subsequent phases of 'unlock'. We develop a model to examine how lockdown and social distancing measures have influenced the behavioral conduct of people. The current situation highlights that policy makers need to focus on bringing awareness and social restraint among people rather than going for stringent lockdown measures. We believe this work will help the policy makers gain insights into the troubled COVID-19 times ahead, and based on the estimates, they can frame policies to navigate these wild waves in the best possible way.     

Associations between ongoing COVID-19 lockdown and the financial and mental health experiences of Australian families

In 2020, Australia's successful COVID-19 public health restrictions comprised a national “initial lockdown” (March–May) and “ongoing lockdown” (July–November) for metropolitan Victorian residents only. We evaluated associations between ongoing lockdown and family finances and mental health. In the June and September 2020 Royal Children's Hospital National Child Health Polls, caregivers of children in Victoria and New South Wales (NSW) reported the following: job/income loss; material deprivation (inability to pay for essential items); income poverty; mental health (Kessler-6); perceived impact on caregiver/child mental health; and caregiver/child coping. Data from caregivers (N = 1207/902) in June/September were analysed using difference-in-difference modelling (NSW provided the comparator). During Victoria's ongoing lockdown, job/income loss increased by 11% (95%CI: 3%–18%); Kessler-6 poor mental health by 6% (95%CI: −0.3%–12%) and perceived negative mental health impacts by 14% for caregivers (95%CI: 6%–23%) and 12% for children (95%CI: 4%–20%). Female (vs. male) caregivers, metropolitan (vs. regional/rural) families, and families with elementary school-aged children (vs. pre-/high-school) were the most affected. The ongoing lockdown was associated with negative experiences of mental health, employment and income, but not deprivation or poverty, likely because of government income supplements introduced early in the pandemic. Future lockdowns require planned responses to outbreaks and evidence-informed financial and mental health supports.     

Saving Lives in the Present Versus Saving Lives in the Future—Is There a Framing Effect?

This study considers how to compare programs which are designed to save lives. "To estimate the discount rate for lives saved in the future a number of studies have been carried out on the trade-off between saving lives now and in the future. A telephone survey is administered to about 1,700 individuals [in Sweden] to test if the framing of the question affects the estimated trade-off. In one sample the question is framed as saving 100 lives today versus saving x future lives and in one sample the question is framed as saving 100 future lives versus saving y lives today. The result shows that the framing has a major impact on the trade-off."     

The unheard and forgotten warriors of pandemic in India

ABSTRACT

This narrative tells the story of two groups: Aanganwadi Group and the Nigrani Group. The former consists of women working under the ICDS (Integrated Child Development Scheme), a flagship program of the Government of India. The latter consists of local youth. The groups’ efforts, during the COVID-19 pandemic, are to ensure food security to migrants and other marginalized people. Despite the high risk of them becoming infected with the coronavirus, the Aanganwadi Group and Nigrani Group are working against all the odds. They are risking their lives to save lives, during the total lockdown in India. My story highlights the value of coordinated efforts between groups to optimize relief efforts for migrant workers during this unprecedented time of forced, sudden lockdown.     

Policy responses to COVID-19 pandemic waves: Cross-region and cross-sector economic impact

This paper proposes a modelling approach to assess the cross-region and cross-sector economic impacts of the restrictions imposed by governments to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. The nationwide lockdown imposed in Italy during the first wave of the pandemic is used as a benchmark. However, the adopted approach allows an ex-ante assessment of alternative policy responses, in the event of successive pandemic waves, in order to rationalise the policy intervention and reach the best possible compromise between containing the risk of contagion and reducing economic losses. The used approach consists of a non-linear programming model based on a multiregional Input-Output (I-O) table, which guarantees greater flexibility than traditional I-O analysis. It is applied to estimate both direct and indirect losses of GDP and employment produced by alternative policy responses represented by general and differentiated lockdowns. The evidence deriving from the Italian experience shows a sort of learning process through successive waves based on the introduction of increasingly flexible and tailored policy responses to the pandemic.     

Policy modelling of the trade-off between agricultural development and land degradation—the Sudan case

The agricultural policy model of the trade-off between agricultural growth and land degradation that we have developed, with Sudan as an application, shares common features with the computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The model is used to address two questions. First, what are the future prospects of a green gross domestic product (GDP), are there reasons for alarm or not, and to what extent? Secondly, which among the four policies of price incentives, property rights, poverty reduction, and human capital are more effective than the others? We show that the prospects of natural resource-friendly agricultural development in Sudan—a rising green GDP—are not promising in the medium run, but that, indeed, there is a range of effective policies and choices that could reduce the trade-off between economic growth and land degradation.     

The effects of mindfulness on mother–child relationships and maternal well-being during the first COVID-19 lockdown in Israel

Research indicates associations of mindfulness with better relationships and well-being because it promotes decentering and relationship-related capacities. This study examined the effects of mindfulness on mothers' relationships with their children and well-being in a challenging time – the first COVID-19 lockdown. We hypothesized that mothers' relationships and well-being would deteriorate during the lockdown, but a mindfulness-based intervention (MBI) would mitigate this process because of its effect on mothers' mindfulness and decentering. We surveyed 109 mothers caring for their children (mean age 8.61) during the first lockdown in Israel. First, they completed online questionnaires assessing their interpersonal mindfulness, decentering, relationships with their children and well-being (including positive and negative affect and life satisfaction). Then, they were randomly assigned to a group: MBI, relaxing music intervention or no intervention. Participants completed the questionnaires again after 2 weeks of daily interventions. Unexpectedly, mothers in all groups improved their relationships with their children and well-being (their satisfaction with life increased and negative affect decreased) with no significant group differences. Furthermore, the increase in relationship quality was associated with increases in mindfulness and decentering. The findings suggest that crises initially perceived as a threat to mother–child relationships may also present a beneficial opportunity in certain circumstances.     

Transformation of a recreational youth group into community service group during the COVID-19 pandemic

ABSTRACT

This narrative is based on the solidarity of a recreational youth group during the COVID-19 pandemic. (Note: Youth refers to older adolescents and young adults, 17–28). The narrative describes the journey and transformation of the youth group from playing cricket to the engagement in community service during the lockdown period. This paper also presents how the presence of the group shifted from physical to a digital platform, and the focus turned from recreation to social support; with that change in the focus, how a small group of youths turned into a larger group to mobilize and utilize resources for community service during the crisis time.     

Siblings in lockdown: International evidence for birth order effects on child adjustment in the Covid19 pandemic

Supportive family relationships may mitigate the impact of the Covid19 pandemic on young children's adjustment, but existing work is limited by its focus on within-country variation and parental influences. Addressing these gaps, and drawing on reported buffering effects of older siblings on child mental health (Lawson and Mace, 2010), the current international study examined whether child adjustment problems were, on average, elevated by the pandemic and whether this buffering effect of older siblings would be maintained. In the first wave of the Covid19 pandemic (April to July 2020), 2516 parents of 3- to 8-year-old children living in Australia, China, Italy, Sweden, United Kingdom, and United States of America—six countries with contrasting governmental responses to the pandemic—completed an online survey about family experiences and relationships and child adjustment, as indexed by ratings on the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ: R. Goodman, 1997). As expected, child SDQ total difficulty scores were elevated in all sites except Sweden (which notably did not enforce mass school closures). Compared to children without siblings, children with one or more older siblings showed fewer adjustment problems. Children from lone-parent households displayed more adjustment problems, as did those whose parents reported increased sibling conflict. Finally, child adjustment problems were negatively associated with family socio-economic status, but positively related to the indices of Covid-19 family disruption and government stringency. We discuss these findings in relation to existing work on asymmetric effects of older versus younger siblings, and siblings as sources of support.     

The optimality of age-based lockdown policies

This paper studies an age-based lockdown that keeps over-60 workers at home as policy response to COVID-19 pandemic in a sample of thirty countries of the European single market. Three main policy issues are addressed, and the results can be summarized as follows. First, age-based lockdown policies are associated with limited output losses and, therefore, are an efficient strategy to limit the spread of the virus in a pandemic, especially in presence of strong age-dependent fatality rates. Second, lockdown policies generate substantial spillover effects; hence, international policy coordination avoiding that too many countries are in lockdown contemporaneously or that such coordination takes place across the countries with the highest integration of over-60 workers along GVCs may be helpful in reducing disruptions. Third, non-targeted lockdowns are much more costly than age-based ones; therefore, other things equal, age-based policies should always be preferred to non-targeted ones. Our analysis also suggests that, in our sample, the over-60 workers are relatively more numerous in sectors where the value added and the integration in GVCs is lower; this feature should be kept in mind in the design of other policies as it might play an important role.     

建立宏观均衡的微观基础

反通货膨胀政策会带来产量的损失,这是经济理论和中国经济实践已经充分证明了的.为此,我们必须加快企业体制和居民保障制度改革,为宏观经济调控创造一个适应的微观经济基础,保持经济的稳定发展.     

A green social work perspective on social work during the time of COVID‐19

COVID‐19 has challenged social workers to engage with health pandemics and provide essential services in conditions of uncertainty and high risk. They have safeguarded children, older adults and diverse adults in ‘at risk’ groups under tough conditions mediated by digital technologies, adhered to government injunctions, maintained social and physical distancing under lockdown and worked from home remotely. Social workers and social care workers have risen to the challenges, providing services with inadequate personal protective equipment and limited supervision and support. This article highlights the degraded physical environments, socio‐economic and political contexts that intensify precariousness and constraints that neoliberalism imposed on professional capacity before and during this health pandemic. It provides guidelines to protect practitioners and service users. It concludes that practitioners ought to understand zoonotic diseases, environmental concerns, acquire disaster expertise and training, widen their practice portfolio and value their contributions to this pandemic. Key Practitioner Message: ? Develop technological skills and innovate to support stressed individuals, safeguard children, adolescents and elders and deal with poverty and unemployment; ? Use digital technologies involving peers to explore tricky situations, examine ethical dilemmas through scenario building exercises, and tips for self‐care; ? Contribute to environmental protections that prevent the spread of zoonotic diseases like COVID‐19; ? Seek supervision and support for disaster‐based training from your line manager.     

Private saving determinants in European countries: A panel cointegration approach

This paper investigates the determinants of aggregate private saving in European countries employing panel data. The long-run saving function is estimated based on an extended lifecycle hypothesis taking into account the economic and demographic developments during this period. A long-run saving function sensitive to dependency ratio, old dependency ratio, liquidity, public finances, real disposable income growth, real interest rate and inflation is found to exist. The empirical evidence suggests the existence of a long-run saving function in Europe. The policy implications of such a relationship are presented.     

“A stitch in time”: group work during the covid-19 scare in the Nicobar Islands,India

ABSTRACT

When India suddenly went into its first coronavirus-induced nationwide lockdown in March 2020, several members of a historically isolated indigenous community in the eastern Indian ocean- the Nicobarese, began to panic. Their leaders came together and formed a group to boost community solidarity and helped the vulnerable indigenes to safely navigate through the crisis. In these uncertain times of Covid-19, when the “modern” world appears more fissured than ever, leaving its “others” to fend for themselves; the Nicobarese’s group has set an example for everyone to follow.     

Exploring the role of gain versus loss framing and point of reference in messages to reduce human–bear conflicts

As a fundamental social process, communication can help natural resource managers prevent or manage many human–wildlife conflicts, but research on how to present effectively information that contributes to the reduction of human–wildlife conflicts is scant. We examined the effectiveness of point-of-reference and gain-versus-loss framing in heightening intentions to prevent human–black bear conflicts. We randomly assigned 811 participants to one of six message conditions as part of a 3 (point of reference: family versus community versus bear) × 2 (message framing: gain versus loss) between-subjects factorial design or a control condition. The findings show that a match between loss framing and low-construal referencing point (e.g., family-referencing), and a congruency between gain framing and high-construal referencing point (e.g., bear-referencing) lead to higher risk perception and behavioral intentions. This study provides guidance for continuing research and design of risk communication in the context of human–bear conflicts.     

The role of social transfers in mitigating families with children from the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic

In this study, we investigated the household income of families with children. Our specific interest was the earned income losses during the COVID-19 pandemic, and how social transfers have mitigated those losses. We assessed the monthly income levels by comparing the information on the year prior to pandemic to income levels during COVID-19 pandemic. We found that the pandemic affected all studied subgroups of families with children, with the most negative economic influence in May 2020. In addition, our results indicate that in Finland the social transfers protected fairly well against the negative economic impacts of the pandemic among families with children, especially among vulnerable families (those with lowest income level prior COVID-19, with low parental education, single-parent families and families with non-Finnish-born parents). The information gained from this analysis can be useful in economic recovery during and after COVID-19 pandemic, and when preparing for future challenges.     

Has Germany’s temporary VAT rates cut as part of the COVID-19 fiscal stimulus boosted growth?

On 3 June 2020, the German government announced a EUR 130 billion fiscal stimulus package to stimulate market demand and jumpstart the economy in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown in the spring of 2020. The most prominent measure of this package is an unconventional fiscal policy in the form of a temporary VAT rates cut for six months, from 1 July to 31 December 2020. Employing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) framework, we study the efficiency of the VAT tax rates cut for ameliorating the consequences of the pandemic recession. The simulation of the calibrated DSGE model yields a tax policy-induced real GDP increase of about 0.3% points for 2020.     

Financial development and economic growth: The Egyptian experience

This paper examines the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth in Egypt during the period 1960–2001 within a trivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) framework (investment being the additional variable). We employ four different measures of financial development and apply Granger causality tests using the cointegration and vector error-correction (VEC) methodology. Our results strongly support the view that financial development and economic growth are mutually causal, that is, causality is bi-directional. Furthermore, we find that financial development causes economic growth through both increasing resources for investment and enhancing efficiency. These findings suggest the need to accelerate the financial reforms that the Egyptian government launched in 1991 and to improve the efficiency of the financial system to stimulate saving/investment and, consequently, long-term economic growth.