A climate stress test on the financial vulnerability of Italian households and firms

This study presents a novel methodological framework for assessing the exposure of the Italian financial system to climate policy risks, using a micro-founded approach. By combining survey and administrative data with energy accounts and energy prices, we estimate the energy demand elasticity of Italian households and firms at the micro-level and we use this information to simulate the effects of four one-off carbon taxes (corresponding to €50, €100, €200 and €800 per ton of CO₂) on their income and profits. To compute if (and how) carbon taxes might affect the share of financially vulnerable agents and the debt at risk, these estimates are employed as an input for the microsimulation models used to monitor financial stability at the Bank of Italy. According to our results, a level of carbon taxation within the range of €50?200 per ton does not have a sizeable effect on the share of financially vulnerable agents. The micro approach allows us to take into account the heterogeneous transmission channels of climate risks and indicates that the financial risks stemming from climate shocks are limited overall and specific to individual households and industries.     

Reducing U.S. carbon dioxide emissions: an assessment of different instruments

The possibility that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use might lead to global warming has become a leading environmental concern. Many scientific and environmental organizations have called for immediate action to limit carbon dioxide production. For the most part, however, public debate has focused on a single policy instrument: a carbon tax applied to fossil fuels in proportion to their carbon content. We present a detailed model of the U.S. economy and use it to compare carbon taxes with two other instruments that could achieve the same reduction in carbon dioxide emissions: a tax on the energy content of fossil fuels (a BTU tax) and an ad valorem tax on fuel use. We find that carbon taxes can achieve a given reduction with the least overall effect on the economy, but with a large effect on coal mining. Energy taxes are fairly similar to carbon taxes but have slightly less impact on coal mining and slightly greater overall cost. In contrast, ad valorem taxes fall much more lightly on coal mining but have a much greater effect on the economy as a whole.     

Comparing the Pension Promises of 30 OECD Countries

This paper takes a microeconomic approach to compare prospective pension benefits in the 30 OECD countries. It shows entitlements gross and net of taxes and social security contributions for male and female single workers based on 2002 pension rules and parameters. The models cover all public and private mandatory sources of retirement income for full‐career private‐sector workers across a broad earnings range. The paper shows that average earners in OECD countries can expect a post‐tax pension of about 70 per cent of their earnings after tax. The average minimum retirement benefit is just under 29 per cent of national average earnings.     

Should commodity tax rates be uniform across regions in a heterogeneous country? Evidence from India

With countries increasingly adopting the Goods and Services Tax (GST) as their system of commodity taxes replacing the myriad of sales, excise and other form of indirect taxes, there is a move towards the two features that characterize the GST: uniform tax rates across items and identical tax rates across regions. When India introduced the GST in 2017, it followed several other countries in departing from the first feature but in keeping with universal practice embraced the second feature. The chief motivation of this paper is to subject this latter feature to critical scrutiny. The study examines the four GST rates in India by comparing them with counterfactual evidence based on preference based optimal commodity tax rates estimated by taking into account regional diversity in prices and spending. The benchmarking suggests that the current top GST rates (12%, 16% and 28%) are much higher than can be justified by the optimal rates. The Indian evidence is also in favor of departing from the universal practice in GST of adopting a uniform tax across items. The paper makes a methodological contribution by proposing a procedure for calculating spatial prices that can be applied to a wide basket of items. The study provides evidence on the redistributive potential of indirect taxation by showing the progressive nature of the optimal commodity taxes. The latter result is of particular significance in developing countries where indirect taxes raise the greater share of revenue and provide an important policy tool for tackling increasing inequality. The study concludes with a list of policy lessons as the country seeks to make further changes to its GST. While there is a significant literature on harmonization of indirect taxes across countries that belong to a single economic grouping such as the EU, there is no such literature between regions within a large heterogeneous country. The present study on tax harmonization between the states in India attempts to fill this gap.     

逃税行为的经济学分析

逃税是一种普遍的社会现象,尤其在发展中国家更为严重.纳税人在进行逃税活动时,总是权衡了风险和收益的情况下,选择最优的收入申报量,而使它的预期收入最大化.当逃税被稽查的概率与被查处所受惩罚的力度之积大于和等于1时,纳税人会倾向完全纳税,相反会倾向逃税.同时,逃税人的预期收入还受到收入、税率、稽查概率和惩罚力度等参数的影响.要遏制逃税行为,应采取适当提高稽查概率,加大惩罚力度和提高收入的显性化等措施,才能使它的危害程度降到最小.     

Extending social security coverage to the rural sector in China

In late 2009 China launched an innovative, voluntary programme that by 2011 had extended pension coverage to 326.4 million people in the rural sector, including contributors and beneficiaries. It requires one contribution per year and provides a flat‐rate benefit and a contributions‐related benefit through a contributory individual account, with a government guarantee that the benefit will continue for life. The programme encourages participation of persons who do not pay income taxes, and thus have no tax incentive to participate, by providing substantial government subsidies. As a further incentive, old‐age benefits are provided to older parents when all their adult children participate in the contributory programme.     

The effects of traditional cigarette and e-cigarette tax rates on adult tobacco product use

We study the effects of traditional cigarette and e-cigarette taxes on use of these products among adults in the United States. Data are drawn from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and National Health Interview Survey over the period 2011 to 2018. Using two-way fixed effects models, we find evidence that higher traditional cigarette tax rates reduce adult traditional cigarette use and increase adult e-cigarette use. Similarly, we find that higher e-cigarette tax rates increase traditional cigarette use and reduce e-cigarette use. Cross-tax effects imply that the products are economic substitutes. Our results suggest that a proposed national e-cigarette tax of $1.65 per milliliter of vaping liquid would raise the proportion of adults who smoke cigarettes daily by approximately 1 percentage point, translating to 2.5 million extra adult daily smokers compared to the counterfactual of not having the tax.

     

Efficiency of financial market intermediation in Kenya: A comparative analysis

Wide interest margins as witnessed in Kenya are a sign of a repressed and inefficient financial sector. This paper carries out a cross-country analysis of the determinants of financial market efficiency using panel cointegration with a view to recommending policy options for improving the efficiency of the financial sector intermediation process in Kenya. The study finds that the major contributors to the differences in financial sector inefficiency in Kenya compared to the other countries in the study are high bank operating costs, default risk and financial market structure. The study recommends, among other measures, that the government through the Central Bank need to collaborate with the commercial banks and establish a working credit reference bureau to enable easy identification of credit worthy customers in order to reduce default risk; there is also need by the central bank to license more new banks to increase competition and reduce bank concentration. The study also recommends increased use of technology including phone-banking and e-banking to reduce operation costs of the banks. The paper concludes that contrary to the findings from other cross-country analysis, the factors that lead to financial market in/efficiency varies from one country to the other.     

Tax structure and state economic growth during the Great Recession

Concern about the effect of taxes on economic growth and development in the United States is longstanding. While most studies are concerned with the growth impacts of tax burden, marginal rates, or the impact of a particular tax, there are few works that examine the impact of tax structure in the way it is defined in this work. Here, tax structure is defined as the shares of revenue collected by various taxes. Using a pool of data on the 50 states between 2004 and 2010, this paper explores the relationship between state and local tax structure and growth of real per-capita GDP through the Great Recession centered in 2008. The results are used to generate estimates of the growth impacts of revenue neutral changes in tax shares.     

振兴东北老工业基地的财税金融支持政策研究

振兴东北老工业基地,在财政政策上,应进一步完善转移支付制度,采取财政参股、财政补贴和财政担保等形式,支持老工业基地的发展。在税收政策上,应加强税收法律法规、管理制度的建设力度,分步实施税收制度改革,实行适当的税收优惠政策。在金融政策上,要用改革和发展的办法化解银行的历史包袱,尽快完善商业银行的经营机制,加快金融创新步伐,推进资本市场的发展,建立和完善振兴东北老工业基地的信用制度与体系以及合理的金融机构组织体系。     

I'm OK, You're (Not) OK: The Private Welfare State in the United States

The American welfare state has been premised on the mixture of substantial private, tax‐subsidized benefits rather than on more universalistic public benefits. That pattern is in some ways being undermined as private pension plans are increasingly going bankrupt and firms reduce the benefits they provide employees. On the other hand, however, the current Bush administration is attempting to enhance the private sector role by allowing individuals to invest at least a part of their social insurance contributions into private savings plans. These changes may in the end increase the role of the public sector as a regulator and underwriter at the same time that attempts are made to minimize public sector involvement.     

An evaluation of alternative fiscal adjustment plans: The case of Italy

What advice can be given to the policymaker to reduce the burden of public debt after a crisis? In this situation, the debt consolidation calls for fiscal surplus based on increases in taxes and/or reductions in public spending. This paper aims at answering to the above question. Specifically, it evaluates different policy options on the table using the estimated model of the Italian dynamic General Equilibrium Model (IGEM). Our main message is that plans aimed at reducing the public debt based on tax increases rather than expenditure reductions are more effective. Therefore, consolidation should be designed on the former.     

Spillover effects of taxes on government debt: a spatial panel approach

It is claimed that tax policy is neither time- nor space-independent due to cross-border tax base mobility, which induces spillovers. Specifically, fiscal shocks in one country are supposed to have an impact on fiscal policies in other countries. Different types of taxes influence economies differently. This paper addresses the question of their impact on government debt. Within a framework of spatial econometric modeling, we evaluate the impact of capital, labor and consumption taxes on public debt in 34 European countries in 2002–2011, and find strong spatial spillovers. We show that a consumption tax and, to a lesser degree, a capital tax significantly affect the sovereign debt, and that the global relations play a leading role (i.e. dominate the local ones) in shaping fiscal policy.     

PUBLIC WEALTH,PUBLIC HEALTH,AND PRIVATE STEALTH: EXAMINING THE BLACK MARKET IN CIGARETTES IN AUSTRALIA

Taxes on tobacco provide a significant income for the Australian government — $5.1 billion in 2001. At the same time, health officials are making strenuous efforts to reduce smoking, particularly among teenagers. Some economists suggest that raising taxes on tobacco will produce more revenue while at the same time lowering smoking rates, particularly among youths who have less discretionary spending power than adults. But a by‐product of excise tax in Australia has been the emerging market in “chop‐chop,” tobacco diverted from legal channels by growers who receive considerably higher prices for a part of their yield than they can obtain from legal manufacturers. The article details this situation and suggests that only bold solutions may be able to reduce tensions in tax policies, smoking rates and the “chop‐chop” black market.     

Were We Really All in it Together? The Distributional Effects of the 2010–15 UK Coalition Government's Tax‐benefit Policy Changes

This article examines the distributional impacts of changes to benefits, tax credits, pensions and direct taxes between the UK general elections of May 2010 and May 2015. The changes did not have a common effect on all household incomes; nor did the direct tax‐benefit changes contribute to deficit reduction. Effectively, reductions in benefits and tax credits financed part of the direct taxes cuts, but the overall net fiscal cost increased pressure for cuts in other public services and increases in other (more regressive) taxes. The main gains were in the upper middle of the income distribution, and the main losers were at the bottom and those close to, but not at, the very top. Across most of the distribution the changes were regressive. By comparing with other analyses of policy changes in the same period, we illustrate the importance of analytical choices and assumptions for detailed conclusions on their distributional effects. We also show how some groups were clear losers or gained little on average – including lone parent families, large families and families with younger children. Others were gainers, including two‐earner couples, and those in their fifties and early sixties. The findings show that a dominant feature of the period was that the combination of higher tax‐free income tax allowances, financed by cuts in benefits and tax credits, was generally regressive. As this combination also lies at the heart of the proposed policies of the Conservative government since 2015, we would expect these effects to be intensified in the coming years.     

Fiscal harmonization in view of the Euro adoption: Economic implications for Poland

In this paper, we investigate the ex ante effects of fiscal policy harmonization that might be necessary for the adoption of the common currency on economic growth in Poland using a neoclassical dynamic two-sector general equilibrium model. We study two fiscal policy scenarios. In the first one, we adjust all taxes to German and EU-27 levels, respectively, while in the second one, we change only consumption taxes to German and EU-27 levels. We find that in the first scenario, the current Polish taxes yield the highest rate of growth due to lower capital taxation. However, in the second scenario, German and EU-27 taxes yield the highest rate of growth due to the lower consumption tax on capital-intensive good. From a policy perspective, our results suggest that fiscal policy with lower taxes on capital and capital-intensive goods can generate a higher rate of growth in the long-run. In the case of fiscal harmonization, our findings propose adopting only German or EU-27 consumption tax structure into the Polish tax system.     

Aiming to keep poor Mexican families at the breadline (but no higher): The effects of minimum wage,tax, and social policy changes between 1994 and 2012

Welfare policy in Mexico has been transformed in recent decades. During the years of the import‐substitution industrialization economic strategy and the hegemonic party political regime, social policy was based on social insurance programs of limited coverage to urban formal sector workers and their families. In the mid‐1990s, an unprecedented expansion of social protection through social assistance programs was triggered, along with social insurance reform. This article assesses the effects at the household level of social policy changes, in combination with changes in taxes and the minimum wage, which also impact the welfare of the population. The research applies “model families” to establish effects of social, tax, and minimum wage policy changes across population groups, and their combined potential to combat poverty. Findings show that although taxation and social policy changes increased redistribution towards poor families, their capacity to lift and keep them above poverty thresholds was limited by the drop in the real value of the minimum wage and by strict targeting mechanisms, which exclude families that do not meet eligibility criteria but still fall below poverty lines. Social policy expansion merely subsidized the drop in real minimum wage, and poor families at best remained at similar income levels. Hence, the logic of the design of welfare policy changes can be characterized as aiming to keep poor families on the breadline, but no higher.     

Income redistribution in 20 countries over time

In most OECD countries, the gap between rich and poor has widened over the past decades. The present study analysed whether and to what extent direct taxes and social transfers contribute to this trend. The study contributes to the literature by disentangling several parts of fiscal redistribution in a comparative setting. We used micro‐data from the Luxembourg Income Study to examine household market inequality and redistribution from transfers and taxes for 20 countries from the mid‐1980s to the mid‐2000s. The contribution of each programme was estimated using a sequential accounting budget incidence decomposition technique. We observed a sizeable increase in primary household inequality, but tax‐benefit systems have offset two thirds of the average increase in primary income inequality. The public old‐age pensions attributed 60 per cent to the increase in redistribution, while social assistance accounted for 20 per cent. Direct taxes slowed down redistribution by 16 per cent.     

Determinants of public support for tax and expenditure initiatives: An Oregon and Washington case study

This article examines the determinants of public support for state tax and expenditure initiatives in Washington and Oregon during the 1993 elections. Both states had initiatives on their November ballots dealing with taxes and expenditures—Measure 1 in Oregon, which would have introduced a state sales tax, and two initiatives in Washington (I-601 and I-602) concerning state government revenue and expenditure limitations. Using statewide mail and telephone surveys conducted among voting age residents of Oregon and Washington several weeks prior to the election, this study examines the determinants of public support for each of the initiatives. The determinants of support examined include various sociodemographic factors such as age cohort, gender, education, level of income, and occupational sector (public v. private); the level of informedness concerning each initiative; perceptions of self interest; and various political indicators, including partisan identification, ideology, degree of cynicism concerning state politics, and perceptions of state budget waste. Findings suggest similar patterns of support and opposition among citizens in both states, with perceptions of high state waste and political cynicism strongly associated with support for tax and expenditure limitation in Washington and opposition to the adoption of a sales tax in Oregon.     

唐宋之际徽州重税考

本文通过对唐宋之际陶雅徽州重税原因进行考辨后认为 ,徽州重税并非是因为当时的刺史陶雅欲取宠节度使杨行密 ,或是迫于军事需要的加征所导致的 ,而是受到税制变迁和地理环境双重因素影响造成的。徽州重税真正沉重不在正税 ,而在杂税上。