调整金融业结构以让降低利率效应落到“实”处

"欧债危机"爆发以来,我国作为应对措施的"调结构"效果并不明显,原因在于措施往往只是针对实体经济,其实金融业的结构改革更为重要。只有金融业的结构改革到位,才能使实体经济结构调整得以深入。尤其是在当前危机和衰退阶段,需要抑制垄断部门,转向服务实体经济。为此,金融业结构改革与实体经济结构改革要并行,"双向调结构"才会释放出效率和创新。     

Stock Market and Aggregate Investment Behavior in Malaysia: An Empirical Analysis

The present paper analyzes the role of stock market, more specifically real stock prices and stock market uncertainty/volatility, on aggregate investment behavior for an emerging market, Malaysia. Employing the autoregressive distributed lags approach to cointegration test, the paper establishes a long run equilibrium that ties the aggregate investment to its determinants—real income, real stock prices, real lending rate and stock market volatility. In the long run, we document a positive relation between aggregate investment and real stock prices and a negative relation between aggregate investment and stock market volatility. These results are further supported by our analyses of their dynamic interactions based on Granger causality and impulse-response functions. Based on the results, the real stock market prices, which has yet reached the level recorded prior to the crisis, may have explained the low investment in Malaysia after the Asian crisis. Moreover, the stock market volatility can also post a threat to the investment performance.     

The Systems Approach in a Global Perspective: The New Economy and Reindustrialization

The existing economic model leads developed and developing countries to a stalemate. The global financial crisis of 2008–2009 revealed the instability and fragility of the current economic model. We can observe the consequences of the crisis (and its continuation) up to the present time. The problem is worse in those economies where the real sector of the economy has been steadily declining during recent years. The great dependence of developed countries on the global financial system, and, in particular, the IMF, causes unemployment to increase, deskills the working-age population, reduces the level of social welfare and aggravates problems of social tension. As for developing countries, they face the problem of attracting investors to the real sector of the economy. The latest economic and social crisis shows the high level of interdependence and demonstrates that all national economies are a united economic system, and that sustainable development is possible only if all work together.     

A TIME SERIES TEST OF INNOVATION-DRIVEN ENDOGENOUS GROWTH

This article finds evidence that ideas and innovation are a key force explaining postwar growth in the U.S. economy. Utilizing data on patents issued since 1851, I construct a measure of the growth rate of knowledge. Capital stock estimates, human capital estimates, and real gross domestic product per worker growth rates are combined with the knowledge growth series to construct a time series test of endogenous innovation growth models. The results support the endogenous innovation approach but suggest that the accumulation of the per worker capital stock and changes in average human capital per worker are at least as important. (JEL 030 , C32 )     

A new paradigm: the wealth effect of the stock market on consumption,in a context of interacting bio-systems

This study examines the existence of a stock market wealth effect on aggregate private consumption in the economy. A theory of investor/consumer behavior is suggested, in a context of a symbiotic relationship between two quasi-bio-systems. The model offers predictions about likely outcomes in capital market interaction with the underlying economy in general and consumption in particular. These predictions are validated empirically. Specifically, the paper finds that investors/consumers do not respond immediately to a stock market rise (fall). Rather, they wait at first and thereafter gradually accelerate their ‘wealth spending’ on consumption only after they are convinced that the gain is permanent (a variation of the ‘income smoothing’ that was suggested many years ago by Friedman (1957)). The paper suggests that the capital markets and the economy interact like two bio-systems symbiotically responding to each other. This study presents evidence that the consumption wealth spending peaks at approximately 2.5% of the stock market wealth CUMULATIVE gain in the previous 12–24-month period, with some effects lingering on up to 36 months. For example, it shows that over 40% of the growth in consumer spending in 1999 was attributable to gains in the stock market in previous years, contributing to a strong GDP in that year.     

如何理解前所未有的机遇和挑战

当前,中国面临国际国内两个环境前所未有的机遇与挑战。国际方面,中国适逢第三次工业革命将重组全球分工体系,以及从商品输出向资本输出、从贸易大国走向资本强国的战略机遇;而美国战略转移东亚和国际金融危机对中国构成前所未有的挑战。国内方面,深化改革和巨大内需市场的红利使我国面临前所未有的发展机遇;而中国廉价的生产要素正逐步消失,经济边疆已扩展到全球,经济逐渐显现出高杠杆率,这些都为中国经济发展带来前所未有的挑战。     

Financial Intermediation Modernization in Countries with Transition Economy

During the modern phase of economic reforms directed at the establishment of market economy, many countries with transition economies face the challenge of solving the issue of formation and rational usage of internal sources of financing the real sector of the economy, as well as attracting considerable volume of direct foreign investment. In general, financial market imperfections hold back innovation and growth, and that public policy can complement financial markets. Therefore, the most relevant issue at the present time is the formation of attendant and complex supervision institutions, as well as an exigency of innovative economy governance as mainframe principles for further banking system elaboration and financial sector development in general. We have taken Armenia as a case study for transition economy as far as Armenia is currently in the stage of capital market development through integration into international financial markets.      

The Impacts of Gaming Expansion on Economic Growth: A Theoretical Reconsideration

This paper employs a general equilibrium framework to analyze the effects on economic growth of global expansions in casino gaming, which exports gambling services largely to non-residents. Both domestic and foreign investments in the gaming sector bring in not only substantial revenues but also positive spillover effects on related sectors and even on the entire local economy. However, an over-expansion of commercial gambling may lead to deterioration in the terms of trade with an adverse impact on real income. If this situation persists, it would not be impossible for immiserizing growth to occur. As a highly profitable sector, casino gaming may enable its operators to diversify out of this risk if they invest retained profits in non-gaming sectors to cash in on the spillover effects it has created. The gaming-dominant economy can then be directed on a more balanced and sustainable growth path, and will become less susceptible to business cycles. Indeed, economic experiences in the world’s major casino resorts are consistent basically with this argument for diversification. We believe that after the current global crisis fades away, economic growth and resulting surges in global demand for gambling services can provide further opportunities for the expansion of existing casino resorts and the development of new gaming markets.     

OLIGARCHIES AND DEVELOPMENT IN A GLOBAL ECONOMY: A TALE OF TWO ELITES

This paper studies how comparative advantage and the political elites' endowments shape long‐run performance in economies with imperfect political institutions. The trade regime interacts with industrial policy and regulations on capital mobility in governing capital accumulation. In a capital‐scarce economy, capitalist oligarchs striving for import substitution industrialization (ISI) initially shelter the economy from trade, while promoting industrial policies that promote total factor productivity growth in the manufacturing sector. This gradually shifts the comparative advantage toward manufacturing and renders the economy attractive to foreign investors. Allowing for trade and foreign capital inflows are thus complementary policies that spur growth in the capital oligarchy. By contrast, landed oligarchs in a capital‐scarce economy favor openness to trade at an early stage of development, neglect industrial policies, and block foreign capital to maximize extractable rents. The policy mix causes the economy to stagnate. Consistent with the experiences of South Korea and Argentina in the postwar era, the model predicts that the success of ISI policies depends crucially on the conditions governing the incentives for capital accumulation. (JEL F10, F20, P40, P50, O10, O24)     

Institutional Deterioration in Transition Economies: Playing Follow-the-Leader During the Global Financial Crisis?

Economic transition was a systemic change of institutions from those that facilitated a planned, communist economy to those suitable for a market economy. This paper examines the state of this political and economic institutional development in 28 transition economies, focusing on the global financial crisis years of 2007–2012. According to various metrics of institutions, institutional regression has indeed occurred but has been somewhat localized in the countries of the CIS. However, property rights have regressed in some countries in Central/Southern Europe, while financial sector institutions have uniformly degraded across the entire transition space.     

The Role of Foreign Banks in Poland

The paper examines the process of the Polish banking sector's internationalisation, with a particular intention of describing incentives and the impact of foreign banks entry. In order to carry out an assessment of changes in the banking market structure and banks' performance, the study introduces arguments and motivations of foreign capital inflow into local financial systems with implications for the stability and the development of the banking sector. The role of foreign capital in the Polish economy derives from an analysis of the effects of foreign banks penetration, in terms of changes in competitiveness, efficiency, and stability of the banking sector. An assessment of concentration level and development prospects have also been included.     

Computers and Productivity: are Aggregation Effects Important?

This article examines the empirical implications of aggregation bias when measuring the productive impact of computers. To isolate "aggregation in variables" and "aggregation in relations" problems, we compare production function estimates across specifications, econometric estimators, and data levels. The results show both sources of bias are important, especially when moving from sectors to the economy level, and when the elasticity of all types of noncomputer capital are restricted to be equal. The elasticity of computers is surprisingly stable between industry and sector regressions and does not appear biased by incorporating a restrictive measure of non‐computer capital. The data consistently show that computers have a large impact on output.     

Financial Literacy,Human Capital and Stock Market Participation in Europe

Households’ stock market participation has significant effects on savings and on an economy’s financial development and performance. Yet participation into capital markets is limited and quite heterogonous both among and within several countries. This phenomenon represents an empirical puzzle whose understanding is rather incomplete. In this work, we exploited a combination of datasets for nine European countries and used different econometric specifications that allow to control for endogeneity of financial literacy and human capital, to assess the role of several variables in affecting the probability to participate in the stock market in year 2010. Besides socio-demographic variables, we found that financial literacy has a positive and significant effect on stock market participation, together with the level of human capital and social interaction. Country level differences are explained by such institutional factors as the effectiveness of the education system and by the attractiveness of the stock markets.     

Foreign aid,public investment,and the informal economy

This paper examines the absorption of foreign aid in the presence of formal and informal production. Calibrating a two-sector open economy model to 67 aid-recipient countries for 1990–2019, we show that an increase in foreign aid drives resources into the informal sector, and away from the formal sector. With untied aid, the expansion of the informal sector can lead to an economic contraction through the Dutch Disease effect. An economic expansion with an increase in the share of formal production can be attained by re-allocating existing aid to public investment rather than an increase in the aggregate level of aid.     

Economic restructuring in post-crisis Korea

The current paper evaluates the restructuring measures implemented in the post-crisis Korean economy. Those taken after the economic crisis were quite successful in the sense of economic recovery. The financial and corporate sector reforms undertaken by the Korean government contributed to strengthening the banking and corporate sectors, attracting FDI inflows. However, many indicators show worsening of income inequalities and workers’ situation regarding job security. The strengths as well as the weaknesses of the development strategy of Korea and its reform measures undertaken since the occurrence of the economic crisis need to be differentiated.     

Feminized cultural capital at work in the moral economy: Home credit and working-class women

One of the defining features of the home credit sector is the role played by its agents—workers who act as intermediaries between lending companies and borrowers to facilitate lending and collect repayments. There is a prevailing and pervasive narrative in the sector that women make superior agents, largely based on the belief that female agents can manage relationships with borrowers more successfully than their male counterparts. This article analyzes data from 349,078 home credit accounts (loans), as well as 71 interviews with home credit agents and lending company managers, to evaluate both the myths and realities of women's roles in home credit. The data is also used to explore the opportunities for—and potential constraints on—women's career progression in home credit work, based on an understanding of the moral economy in which they operate. By exploring the moral economy of low-income communities, the article highlights the role of working-class women's cultural capital within the labor market. Despite women forming the majority of the agent workforce in home credit, women's capital is undervalued in comparison with their male counterparts' capital. The analysis within this article allows a greater understanding of the highly classed and gendered nature of the moral economy of low-income communities and the exchange value of women's capital within the labor market.     

Assisted homeownership, investment and their roles in private property price dynamics in Hong Kong

Hong Kong not only has one of the most institutionally-involved housing markets, but also one of the most developed stock markets in the world. In the meantime, the function of real estate has become increasingly important, yet increasingly vague at the same time. This paper attempts to explore the significant factors in the price adjustments of residential properties. It is found that while most market fundamentals are not significant in explaining property price movements, the roles of investment concerns and of government policy changes in assisted homeownership (HOS) are much more critical in this regard. On the one hand, real estate prices are driven more by investor demand, rather than by user demand; and residential properties are used to hedge against price risks in the stock market, instead of against inflation. On the other hand, while the upgrading hypothesis is confirmed in this study, the situation of Hong Kong turns out to be a bit different from the Singapore experience. As the production of HOS flats is suspended until further notice, the resale HOS market has managed to pull a fraction of homebuyers from the private sector. This particular finding shows that the government’s decision to suspend HOS flat production and sale in Fall 2002 has not accomplished what was intended to achieve. Instead, this leads to several implications, which are then discussed.     

GROWTH AND CONVERGENCE WHEN TECHNOLOGY AND HUMAN CAPITAL ARE COMPLEMENTS

This article presents a model of endogenous growth, in which a firm's technology and a country's human capital stock are complementary in the production of output. Production technologies are created by costly research and development (R&D) and are owned by firms that can freely choose where in the world to produce. Both production and R&D have a positive effect on a country's human capital stock. While all countries typically grow at the same rate in the long run, they differ in their levels of human capital, per capita output, and the quality of the technologies that are used in production. A country's relative position in terms of productivity is history dependent. Countries that start out with a lower human capital stock or industrialize later end up with a lower per capita GDP in long‐term equilibrium. (JEL O4, O33, O47)     

The cloud factory: Making things and making a living with desktop 3D printing

This paper presents a case study of an open-source 3D printer called ‘Rep-rap’. 3D printing derives from computer numerical control machinery, a technology first introduced against a background of industrial conflict. This historical fact reactualises labour process theory as a theoretical resource. However, the hobbyists in the Rep-rap project are located ‘outside’ the typical setting studied in labour process theory, that is, the workplace. The case study is, therefore, suitable for examining the limits of labour process theory. Its key tenet regarding structured antagonism between labour and capital is put to the test when the ‘point of production’ is located in a community and ‘labour’ consists in non-remunerated contributions by hobbyists (i.e. non-employees). Drawing on theories of the social factory and free labour in the cultural sector, the article argues that this is changing as hobbyists, fans, makers, etc., are put to work by start-up firms and venture capital in the so-called “sharing economy.”     

International Transmission Effect of Volatility between the Financial Markets during the Asian Financial Crisis

In this paper I propose an analysis of interaction among global economies by focusing on the regional financial markets of Asian countries during and after the Asian financial crisis in 1997, in order to study the dynamic relationship between stock returns and exchange rate changes. In addition, the impact of the Asian financial crisis is also examined. For the methodology, the bivariate EGARCH (exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) and EGARCH-X models are used to examine the interrelationship of stock markets and foreign exchange markets. The empirical results show that a two-way feedback relationship exists between the volatility of stock returns and exchange rate changes during the recovery period of the Asian countries. This result is important because the effect of volatility transmission between global financial markets can still be observed today. Furthermore, when comparing the volatility transmission during the crisis period with that during the recovery period, it shows that the spillover effect has increased during the recovery period, indicating that the strength of the transmission mechanism has increased after the Asian financial crisis. This result also suggests that the interactions of the stock and foreign exchange markets of Asian countries were affected by the Asian financial crisis, and the impact is greater for Indonesia, Japan, the Philippines, and especially Thailand, which were more vulnerable during the financial crisis.