Selective Maintenance in System Reliability with Random Costs of Repairing and Replacing the Components

In this paper we consider the problem of determining the optimum number of repairable and replaceable components to maximize a system's reliability when both, the cost of repairing the components and the cost of replacement of components by new ones, are random. We formulate it as a problem of non-linear stochastic programming. The solution is obtained through Chance Constrained programming. We also consider the problem of finding the optimal maintenance cost for a given reliability requirement of the system. The solution is then obtained by using Modified E-model. A numerical example is solved for both the formulations.     

Multiobjective Stochastic Multivariate Stratified Sampling in Presence of Nonresponse

The case of nonresponse in multivariate stratified sampling survey was first introduced by Hansen and Hurwitz in 1946 considering the sampling variances and costs to be deterministic. However, in real life situations sampling variance and cost are often random (stochastic) and have probability distributions. In this article, we have formulated the multivariate stratified sampling in the presence of nonresponse with random sampling variances and costs as a multiobjective stochastic programming problem. Here, the sampling variance and costs are considered random and converted into a deterministic NLPP by using chance constraint and modified E-model. A solution procedure using three different approaches are adopted viz. goal programming, fuzzy programming, and D₁ distance method to obtain the compromise allocation for the formulated problem. An empirical study has also been provided to illustrate the computational details.     

The minimum of the expected value of the product of three random variables in the Fréchet class

Summary In this paper the minimum of the expected value of the product of three random variables is studied as their joint distribution function varies in the Fréchet class associated to the three given marginal distribution functions. The general problem is studied for three positive valued random variables and a lower bound for the minimum is provided. The case of three uniformly distributed random variables in [0, 1] is analyzed in more detail and an upper bound for the minimum is given. The Author conjectures that the distribution correspondent to the upper bound is a solution of the problem. Paper written with the contribution of MURST (funds 40%).     

Semiparametric estimation for weighted average derivatives with responses missing at random

When responses are missing at random, we propose a semiparametric direct estimator for the missing probability and density-weighted average derivatives of a general nonparametric multiple regression function. An estimator for the normalized version of the weighted average derivatives is constructed as well using instrumental variables regression. The proposed estimators are computationally simple and asymptotically normal, and provide a solution to the problem of estimating index coefficients of single-index models with responses missing at random. The developed theory generalizes the method of the density-weighted average derivatives estimation of Powell et al. (1989) for the non-missing data case. Monte Carlo simulation studies are conducted to study the performance of the methods.     

Some Nonparametric Asymptotic Results for a Class of Stochastic Processes

This article provides a solution of a generalized eigenvalue problem for integrated processes of order 2 in a nonparametric framework. Our analysis focuses on a pair of random matrices related to such integrated process. The matrices are constructed considering some weight functions. Under asymptotic conditions on such weights, convergence results in distribution are obtained and the generalized eigenvalue problem is solved. Differential equations and stochastic calculus theory are used.     

An Optimal Multivariate Stratified Sampling Design Using Dynamic Programming

Numerous optimization problems arise in survey designs. The problem of obtaining an optimal (or near optimal) sampling design can be formulated and solved as a mathematical programming problem. In multivariate stratified sample surveys usually it is not possible to use the individual optimum allocations for sample sizes to various strata for one reason or another. In such situations some criterion is needed to work out an allocation which is optimum for all characteristics in some sense. Such an allocation may be called an optimum compromise allocation. This paper examines the problem of determining an optimum compromise allocation in multivariate stratified random sampling, when the population means of several characteristics are to be estimated. Formulating the problem of allocation as an all integer nonlinear programming problem, the paper develops a solution procedure using a dynamic programming technique. The compromise allocation discussed is optimal in the sense that it minimizes a weighted sum of the sampling variances of the estimates of the population means of various characteristics under study. A numerical example illustrates the solution procedure and shows how it compares with Cochran's average allocation and proportional allocation.     

Bayesian forecasting for AR(1) models with normal coefficients

This paper presents a Bayesian solution to the problem of time series forecasting, for the case in which the generating process is an autoregressive of order one, with a normal random coefficient. The proposed procedure is based on the predictive density of the future observation. Conjugate priors are used for some parameters, while improper vague priors are used for others.     

Response prediction in mixed effects models

Although prediction in mixed effects models usually concerns the random effects, in this paper we deal with the problem of prediction of a future, or yet unobserved, response random variable, belonging to a given cluster. In particular, the aim is to define computationally tractable prediction intervals, with conditional and unconditional coverage probability close to the target nominal value. This solution involves the conditional density of the future response random variable given the observed data, or a suitable high-order approximation based on the Laplace method. We prove that, unless the amount of data is very limited, the estimative or naive predictive procedure gives a relatively simple, feasible solution for response prediction. An application to generalized linear mixed models is presented.     

An RKHS framework for functional data analysis

Linear combinations of random variables play a crucial role in multivariate analysis. Two extension of this concept are considered for functional data and shown to coincide using the Loève–Parzen reproducing kernel Hilbert space representation of a stochastic process. This theory is then used to provide an extension of the multivariate concept of canonical correlation. A solution to the regression problem of best linear unbiased prediction is obtained from this abstract canonical correlation formulation. The classical identities of Lawley and Rao that lead to canonical factor analysis are also generalized to the functional data setting. Finally, the relationship between Fisher's linear discriminant analysis and canonical correlation analysis for random vectors is extended to include situations with function-valued random elements. This allows for classification using the canonical Y scores and related distance measures.     

Robust Positioning of Service Units

In this paper, we address the problem of locating mobile service units to cover random incidents. The model does not assume complete knowledge of the probability distribution of the location of the incident to be covered. Instead, only the mean value of that distribution is known. We propose the minimization of the maximum expected response time as an effectiveness measure for the model. Thus, the solution obtained is robust with respect to any probability distribution. The cases of one and two service units under the nearest allocation rule are studied in the paper. For both problems, the optimal solutions are shown to be degenerate distributions for the servers.     

A solvable singular control problem driven by a jump diffusion process with applications

We consider a class of singular control problems driven by a double exponential jump diffusion process, which come from the reversible investment problem. In some interesting cases (e.g., the running cost function is given by the so-called Cobb-Douglas production function), we give the explicit solutions to the singular control problem by using the connection between singular control and optimal switching. We solve a collection of consistent optimal switching problems and yield the explicit solution for the singular control problem. We then give an application to a particular inventory control problem in a single random period.     

Bayesian object matching

A Bayesian approach to object matching is presented. An object and a scene are each represented by features, such as critical points, line segments and surface patches, constrained by unary properties and contextual relations. The matching is presented as a labeling problem, where each feature in the scene is assigned (associated with) a feature of the known model objects. The prior distribution of a scene's labeling is modeled as a Markov random field, which encodes the between-object constraints. The conditional distribution of the observed features labeled is assumed to be Gaussian, which encodes the within-object constraints. An optimal solution is defined as a maximum a posteriori estimate. Relationships with previous work are discussed. Experimental results are shown.     

A unified approach to minimum variance unbiased estimation of a probability function belonging to an exponential family

The problem of minimum variance unbiased estimation of the probability density function of a random variable belonging to an exponential family is considered. The method of estimation proposed in this paper requires the solution of a certain integral equation. For many probability distributions the solution of this equation is given by a known result in integral transform theory.     

Joint covariate selection and joint subspace selection for multiple classification problems

We address the problem of recovering a common set of covariates that are relevant simultaneously to several classification problems. By penalizing the sum of ℓ ₂ norms of the blocks of coefficients associated with each covariate across different classification problems, similar sparsity patterns in all models are encouraged. To take computational advantage of the sparsity of solutions at high regularization levels, we propose a blockwise path-following scheme that approximately traces the regularization path. As the regularization coefficient decreases, the algorithm maintains and updates concurrently a growing set of covariates that are simultaneously active for all problems. We also show how to use random projections to extend this approach to the problem of joint subspace selection, where multiple predictors are found in a common low-dimensional subspace. We present theoretical results showing that this random projection approach converges to the solution yielded by trace-norm regularization. Finally, we present a variety of experimental results exploring joint covariate selection and joint subspace selection, comparing the path-following approach to competing algorithms in terms of prediction accuracy and running time.     

Moments of Special Normally Distributed Matrices

In solving systems of simultaneous random linear algebraic equations some approximating methods lead to the problem of determinating moments of special random matrices and vectors. In this article corresponding formulas are provided for moments of some normally distributed matrices. The deduced relations can be considered as a generalization of the known formulas for the central moments of normally distributed random variables.     

On prediction and mean squared error

Practical questions motivate the search for predictors either of an as yet unobserved random vector, or of a random function of a parameter. An extension of the classical UMVUE theory is presented to cover such situations. In includes a Rao-Blackwell-type theorem, a Cramer-Rao-type inequality, and necessary and sufficient conditions for a predictor to minimize the mean squared error uniformly in the parameter. Applications are considered to the problem of selected means, the species problem, and the examination of some u-v estimates of Robbins (1988).     

统计调查中回答误差的计量

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Optimum multivariate stratified double sampling design: Chebyshev's Goal Programming approach

In stratified sampling when strata weights are unknown a double sampling technique may be used to estimate them. A large simple random sample from the unstratified population is drawn and units falling in each stratum are recorded. A stratified random sample is then selected and simple random subsamples are obtained out of the previously selected units of the strata. This procedure is called double sampling for stratification. If the problem of non-response is there, then subsamples are divided into classes of respondents and non-respondents. A second subsample is then obtained out of the non-respondents and an attempt is made to obtain the information by increasing efforts, persuasion and call backs. In this paper, the problem of obtaining a compromise allocation in multivariate stratified random sampling is discussed when strata weights are unknown and non-response is present. The problem turns out to be a multiobjective non-linear integer programming problem. An approximation of the problem to an integer linear programming problem by linearizing the non-linear objective functions at their individual optima is worked out. Chebyshev's goal programming technique is then used to solve the approximated problem. A numerical example is also presented to exhibit the practical application of the developed procedure.     

Detecting a changed segment in DNA sequences

Non-coding deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) can typically be modelled by a sequence of Bernoulli random variables by coding one base, e.g. T, as 1 and other bases as 0. If a segment of a sequence is functionally important, the probability of a 1 will be different in this changed segment from that in the surrounding DNA. It is important to be able to see whether such a segment occurs in a particular DNA sequence and to pin-point it so that a molecular biologist can investigate its possible function. Here we discuss methods for testing the occurrence of such a changed segment and how to estimate the end points of it. Maximum-likelihood-based methods are not very tractable and so a nonparametric method based on the approach of Pettitt has been developed. The problem and its solution are illustrated by a specific DNA example.