关于一国统计能力建设的研究

First of all, the definition of the statistical capacity for a country was given in this paper. Based upon it, author discussed how to evaluate a country's statistical capacity both from input side and output side. A possible way of evaluating a country's statistical capacity qualitatively was given. Finally it discussed how to building-up statistical capacity for a country.     

江西与中部省份发展状况比较研究

In a common sense, a transforming process of industrial structure is the process of the economicdevelopment. Firstly, this thesis reviews the past and the current of the industrial development in thecentral China after the PRC was established. Secondly, The thesis deeply analyses the reasons thatindustrial development of Jiangxi province lays behind the others in the central China in six aspects assystem, investment, level of opening-up, and so on. Finally, after realizing Jiangxi's present situation andusing the successful experiences on industrial development of developed countries and areas for reference,we pose six suggestions and measures to focus on accelerting to deyelop economy and upgrade industrialstructure of Jiangxi Province.     

我国外资利用的经济增长效应——基于内生经济增长模型的分析

The flowing of foreign capital is related with the economic security of one countries. The experiencesand lessons of many developing countries show that the impact of the foreign capital to the domesticeconomic is often the most important factors of the financial crisis. So it is important to a analysis theforeign capital economic growth effect. Based on the endogenous economic growth model, this paper firstdistricts the three cases of the foreign capital impact and give the three factors of the foreign capitalaffecting to the economic path. The using the sample data of China, we analyze the three factors. Theresults show that all the three factor effets are all positive, which means that the foreign capital utility ofChina is efficiency.     

联合国统计指标解释节选(十七)

Consumer price indices are designed to show changes over time in the cost ofselected goods and services which are considered as reprcsentative of theconsumption habits of the population concerned．Methods of computation usedby statistical offices vary from one country to another．     

基于期权方法的动态租赁决策

Many researches concentrated on the analysis of leasing decisions, which afford no flexibility to adjust the term of the leasing during its life. Since these analyses are based on Discounted Cash Flow, it is inadequate for valuing the various options written into many leasing contracts. In this paper, a leasing decision with several real options was analyzed. An option-based numerical analysis is used here with an exampite to value such. discrete-time type of real options.     

变点统计分析的研究进展

In this paper, we review the progresses of change-point problems. In particular, we discuss the research results about change-point problems in China.     

全面小康社会与全面评价刍议

Some suggestions about the evaluation of the all-round well-off society are put forward in this paper.The author thinks that this kind of evaluation is complicated and the methods should be diversiform.     

坚持核心竞争力战略打造统计信息平台

The paper explores the definition of core competitivity. It describes the close relationship between reforms, innovation, statistical informatization, national statistical information construction of the ninth five year period and core competitive strategy. The author analyzes the relevant questions about statistical core competitivity construction.     

浅析运用计量经济模型的缺陷

At present, Econometric models have found a wide range of applications on economic research.However their reliability can be easily understand by intend or unintended abuses. No doubt, econometricmodels have the advantage of revealing the numerical relationships on economic phenomena, but thereexist certain fatal flaws on these econometric models, which if not treated properly will lead to unexpectedmistakes in economic forecast or analysis. In this article some common flaws in econmetric models areinvestigated and some useful measures are suggested for their improvement.     

FDI技术外溢的动态测算及原因解释

A dyanmic model of measuring technology spillover effects from FDI has been established in thispaper by introducing the adaptive expectation process into the original Feder model, and China' seconomic data are used to calculate the time-series of technology spillovers for China' s FDI. A furtherstudy demonstrates that the interaction of human capital and FDI well explains the changes of spillovereffects, while the degree of openness and the improvement of infrastructure also have a positive impact ontechnology spillover. However, it's hard to make certain the relationship between the technology gap,competitive intensity of domestic market and technology spillovers.     

基于外部干预的统计数据博弈模型链

当前社会各界仍普遍反映我国政府统计数据质量较差,其中一个重要原因就是外部干预造成的。本文建立的统计数据非生成过程的三个博弈模型证实和模拟了外部干预统计数据质量的动力和途径,说明了统计数据在干预下的上报倾向,并通过对博弈模型均衡及参数的分析,得出了相应的结论和改进数据质量的均衡观。     

统计信用制度建立的理论分析与初步设想

统计信用缺失是影响统计数据失真的重要原因,建立统计信用评级体系是从根本上保障诚信、提高数据质量的最有效的方法。本文运用信息不对称原理和博弈论分析模型对统计信用缺失进行分析,并对统计信用评价体系进行了初步设想。     

统计主体利益均等化研究

针对中国统计改革尚未解决的基层统计边缘化、空壳化问题,分析了问题产生的主要原因,在深入剖析统计主体利益失衡理论根源、思想根源与现实根源的基础上,提出了统计主体利益均等化主张,通过开放统计服务市场、建立均等化统计制度、构建商业化统计模式、建设职业化统计队伍,从而实现统计主体互利共赢。这对于激发基层统计活力,夯实政府统计基础,提高政府统计数据质量和公信力有十分重要的意义。     

A dissimilarity based on relevant population features

In this paper a dissimilarity index between statistical populations is proposed without the hypothesis of a specific statistical model. We assume that the studied populations differ on some relevant features which are measured through convenient parameters of interest. We assume also that we dispose of adequate estimators for these parameters. To measure the differences between populations with respect to the parameters of interest, we construct an index inspired on some properties of the information metric which are also presented. Additionally, we consider several examples and compare the obtained dissimilarity index with some other distances, like Mahalanobis or Siegel distances.     

Behaviour of the posterior error rate with partial prior information in auditing

Most of the Bayesian literature on statistical techniques in auditing has focused on assessing appropriate prior density using parameters such as interest, error rate and the mean of the error amount. Frequently, prior beliefs and mathematical tractable reasons are jointly used to assess prior distributions. As a robust Bayesian approach, we propose to replace the prior distribution with a set of prior distributions compatible with auditor's beliefs. We show how an auditor may draw the behaviour of the posterior error rate, using only partial prior information (quartiles of the prior distribution for the error rate O and, very often, the prior distribution is assumed to be unimodal). An example is pursued in depth.     

Graphical Presentation of a Basketball Game

A graphical summary of the scoring activity for a basketball game is presented. The summary is a real-time plot of the score difference versus the elapsed time. In contrast to the usual score by quarters (or by half in college play), the graph easily allows complete identification of items of interest, such as largest leads, lead changes, come-from-behind activity, and percentage of game time for which a particular team of interest held a lead. The technique is applied to professional and collegiate games, and several interesting features are noted.     

Structural changes during a century of the world’s most popular sport

The analysis in this paper employs a methodology for dating structural breaks in tests with non-standard asymptotic distributions. The application examines whether changes in the rules of a game and major social and political events during the past century had significant effects upon various outcomes of this game. The statistical methodology first applied here proves successful as most breaks can be traced to specific events and rule changes. Dating these breaks allows us to obtain useful insights into production and competition processes in this industry. As such, using empirical tests we illustrate the utility of a valuable statistical technique not applied previously.Ignacio Palacios-Huerta: I am grateful to Gary S. Becker, Tony Lancaster, Robin Lumsdaine, Kevin M. Murphy, Gabriel Perez-Quiros, Ana I. Saracho, Amy Serrano, an associate editor and a referee for useful suggestions. I am also indebted to Barry Blake, Vicki Bogan, Salwa Hammami and Karen Wong for able research assistance, Tony Brown at the Association of Football Statisticians for the data the Hoover Institution for its hospitality, and the Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnologia for financial support (grant BEC 2003-08182). The Gauss programs used in this paper were kindly provided by Bruce E. Hansen. Any errors are mine alone.     

The statistical impact of inflation on interest rates

Understanding the behavior of interest rates is of central importance in finance. This is due to the fact that interest and forward rates serve as underlyings for many fixed income products. Furthermore, interest rate-based quantities may be used as numeraires when it comes to computing present values of future payoffs. An important macroeconomic factor which is likely to trigger interest rates is inflation. In this paper we extend a well-known continuous time interest rate model by incorporating inflation. Finally, we apply a statistical test to real data to explore the goodness-of-fit of the inflation-based model.     

Statistical methods for clinical studies in the presence of surrogate end points

The use of surrogate end points has become increasingly common in medical and biological research. This is primarily because, in many studies, the primary end point of interest is too expensive or too difficult to obtain. There is now a large volume of statistical methods for analysing studies with surrogate end point data. However, to our knowledge, there has not been a comprehensive review of these methods to date. This paper reviews some existing methods and summarizes the strengths and weaknesses of each method. It also discusses the assumptions that are made by each method and critiques how likely these assumptions are met in practice.     

Review of the statistical analysis of the dog telemetry study

In 2008, the PSI Toxicology Special Interest Group met to discuss the design and analysis of dog telemetry studies. The dog telemetry study is one component of the integrated cardiovascular assessment required by regulatory bodies. Although there are guidelines for these studies, little is said about the statistical analysis. With parameters of interest measured continually over time, in studies typically involving four dogs, the analysis is not straightforward. This has led to many different types of analysis being proposed in the literature, with many different methods applied within the pharmaceutical industry itself. This paper summarizes the PSI Toxicology group's discussions and recommendations around these issues.