金融化与商品价格泡沫

本文构建了商品期货市场"泡沫综合指标"和归因分析模型,测度了2006～2015年我国商品期货市场价格泡沫整体水平和分布特征,并分析了商品金融化对商品价格泡沫形成机制的影响。研究结果发现:(1)近10年我国商品期货市场价格泡沫程度总体可控,剧烈泡沫现象主要发生于2008～2011年金融危机期间;(2)我国商品期货市场呈现出一定程度的金融化特征,股票指数与商品价格泡沫水平存在显著的负向关联,我国股票市场与商品市场表现出"此消彼长"的资本轮动关系;(3)金融因素对商品价格泡沫形成的影响具有非线性的复杂特征,金融因素对商品价格泡沫形成机制的影响程度弱于宏观经济因素。本文认为,准确评估和科学防范商品金融化现象及其对商品定价机制的潜在影响,对于推进商品期货市场和商品经济平稳健康发展具有重要的理论和现实意义。     

中国成功零售企业定位点的实证研究

本文通过对全国样本的零售企业顾客满意度影响因子和评价数据的分析,对中国市场成功零售企业的定位点表现进行了实证研究,本文得出了有价值的五个结论:(1)成功的零售企业有明确的定位点;(2)成功的零售企业一般拥有1个主要、1个次好两个定位点;(3)商品、服务、价格、购物环境等,成为成功零售企业定位点选择的要素;(4)同一零售业态的成功企业可以有不同的定位点;(5)成功零售企业的非定位点都高于行业平均水平,而趋向成功的零售企业达到行业平均水平。     

震后交通管制下多出救点应急物资调运问题

销售季节性商品的零售企业在销售季节开始前通常仅能获得有限的市场信息,在销售过程中因滞销而产生剩余库存的现象十分普遍。因此,许多零售企业会将商品在一级市场销售之后以折扣价格在二级市场上继续销售。为此,建立了这一问题的两阶段模型,在较宽松的需求假设下分析了模型所具有的性质,通过求解得到了零售企业对季节性商品的订货量决策和商品在两级市场间转换时刻决策所要满足的最优条件。     

投资者结构、交易失衡与商品期货市场的价格发现效率

基于上海期货交易所铝、铜、橡胶和燃料油期货合约两种投资者结构的分账户数据,分析不同类型投资者交易失衡对我国商品期货市场收益、价格发现与波动的影响。结果表明:(1)个人投资者和投机者的交易失衡暗示其寻找最佳买多或卖空时点的能力不足,存在明显的过度自信、过度投机和羊群行为,加剧商品期货价格波动;(2)机构投资者和套期保值者常常表现出与个人投资者和投机者相反的交易意愿,他们能够较好地把握买入与卖出时机,且更愿意冒险持有头寸,有助于缓解商品期货价格波动;(3)商品期货价格的变动趋势表明机构投资者和套期保值者具有一定的信息优势,能够在一定程度上预测商品期货价格的未来走势,他们极其乐观或悲观的交易失衡可以向商品期货市场传递有效的信息和时间信号。因此,提高机构投资者和套期保值者的成交量(持仓量)比例,优化投资者结构,可以有效促进我国商品期货市场的价格发现,降低期货价波动风险。此外,大型投机者的交易活动也可以在一定程度上缓解商品期货价格波动。     

一种新型商品定价模型与价格安全指数评估体系

本文提出了偏态分布与偏态过程的概念及其数学表达式,该分布与过程适用于对各种商品价格变化的分析和描述;给出了反映商品内在价格、市场价格、内在风险和市场风险基本关系的数量模型,该模型可用于分析和实现包括现货、股票、期货、期权在内的各类商品、衍生商品的逻辑化市场定价及市场风险度量;设计了针对成本价格、市场价格和综合价格的安全指数,可对社会、经济、金融、科技、教育等各行业的商品价格及发展状况进行安全性测算和评估。     

网络购物平台最优价格促销策略：价格折扣还是现金券？

平台价格促销已成为平台营销中的重要问题，不同于传统模式下商家决定商品的价格促销，平台价格促销是以平台作为价格促销的决策者。本文建立了平台价格折扣和现金券两种由平台作为决策者的价格促销模型，探讨平台的最优价格促销策略，并在原有模型的基础上考虑商家广告投资决策并构建了扩展模型。研究结果表明，(1)只有当商品的基本需求、消费者价格敏感度和商品价格满足一定条件时，平台价格促销才能提升平台利润。(2)在两种价格促销都能提升平台利润情况下，平台的交易费率较高且商品价格较低则平台实施现金券策略的利润高于价格折扣策略；其他情况下平台实施价格折扣策略的利润高于现金券策略。(3)在平台交易费率较低的情况下，价格折扣策略下消费者能得到更多优惠；否则现金券策略下消费者得到更多优惠。(4)增加商家广告投资能够提高平台促销活动的利润，但是平台的价格优惠降低，且平台实施价格促销活动的条件区间减小。     

交叉上市股票价格发现及贡献差异的横截面分析

本文在非线性协整理论的基础上重新推导了Hasbrouck(1995)的信息份额模型,以A+H股上市公司为研究对象计算了每家样本公司A股与H股的信息份额,并对交叉上市股票价格发现能力的横截面特征和影响因素进行了实证研究。发现:(1)虽然交叉上市公司A、H股价格存在差异,但是两者的变动存在线性或非线性的协整关系且互为调整,平均来看A股比H股更具价格发现功能;(2)交叉上市公司间股票价格发现贡献存在较大差异;(3)流动性、市场稳定性及信息不对称对公司A、H股价格发现能力存在重要影响。     

对我国房地产泡沫的实证研究

微观经学认为影响一般商品的价格的主要因素有生产成本以及供求关系,这两个因素不仅是影响商品价格的主要因素而且还是最直接的影响因素。当然,替代商品与消费者的消费偏好心理及行为也有密切关系,但主要是间接影响因素,主要是通过影响商品供求关系进而影响商品的价格。本文通过房地产泡沫的泡沫测定理论以及相关数据进行分析对房地产是否存在泡沫以及价格居高不下的直接以及间接原因进行剖析并提出自己的建议对策。     

金融危机背景下我国房地产市场价格变动趋势

2008年是我国房地产市场极不平凡的一年。从2007年房价的疯狂上涨到2008年终的量价齐跌,让购房者经历了房地产价格戏剧性的变化,许多人预言房价还会持续下跌。那么,在金融危机背景下,房地产市场价格到底会有怎样的变化趋势？我国房地产市场价格的决定持l型在充分竞争的市场结构中,均衡价格是由市场的供给和需求共同决定的。当影响供给和需求的因素发生变动后,市场的均衡价格也会发生相应的变动。如果供给和需求同方向变化,例如同时增加,需求增加的幅度大于供给增加的幅度,则均衡价格会上升;     

浅议行业协会垄断协议行为的规制

行业协会在社会主义市场经济中扮演重要角色,在市场竞争中发挥重要作用。虽然商品价格是市场调节与国家宏观调控共同作用的结果,但仍不能忽视行业协会对市场中商品价格变动的影响。行业协会利用行业自律的优势对价格进行操纵的现象时有发生,我国《反垄断法》对垄断行为做出了相关规定,但是仍然存在很多问题。     

Ambiguity in the Small and in the Large

This paper considers local and global multiple‐prior representations of ambiguity for preferences that are (i) monotonic, (ii) Bernoullian, that is, admit an affine utility representation when restricted to constant acts, and (iii) locally Lipschitz continuous. We do not require either certainty independence or uncertainty aversion. We show that the set of priors identified by Ghirardato, Maccheroni, and Marinacci's (2004) “unambiguous preference” relation can be characterized as a union of Clarke differentials. We then introduce a behavioral notion of “locally better deviation” at an act and show that it characterizes the Clarke differential of the preference representation at that act. These results suggest that the priors identified by these preference statements are directly related to (local) optimizing behavior.     

以党内和谐促进社会和谐

党的十六届六中全会通过的《中共中央关于构建社会主义和谐社会若干重大问题的决定》明确指出:构建社会主义和谐社会,关键在党。要提高各级领导班子和领导干部领导社会主义和谐社会建设的本领,以党内和谐促进社会和谐。近年     

Exploring the generation gap in the workplace in South Korea

This study reviewed current literature on generational issues in Korea, specifically in relation to the workplace. Based on the results, this study concluded that distinct generations of workers exist in Korea. While there are similar generational characteristics between Korea and the United States because of the unique societal, historical, and cultural factors in each country, there are noticeable differences such as the existence of Generation 386 in Korea. Due to rapid industrialization and social transformation during the past few decades, Korean society seems to exhibit wider gaps between older and younger generations than the United States. The roles of Generation 386 and Generation Y in organizations should be considered for the future.     

在三个文明协调发展中加快和谐内蒙古建设进程

构建社会主义和谐社会,是我们党从全面建设小康社会、开创中国特色社会主义事业新局面的全局出发提出的一项重大战略任务。内蒙古是民族区域自治地方,是祖国北部边疆。落实中央提出的战略任务,建设和谐内蒙古,对于实现全面建设小康社会的奋斗目标,促进各民族共同团结奋斗、共同繁荣发展,维护祖国北疆安宁稳定,具有特殊重要的意义。     

构建和谐社会组织工作要解决好六个问题

构建社会主义和谐社会,对党的组织工作提出了一系列新课题、新要求。笔者认为,围绕构建和谐社会,组织工作重点需要研究思考和探索解决六个方面的问题。一、如何更好地以民主开放理念指导推进组织工作。我们所要建设的和谐社会,是建立在开放基础上的民主法治社会。因此,党的组织工作必须建立一套与之相适应的民主开放的工作运行机制。这些年,随着干部人事制度改革的逐步深化以及基层党建工作创新步伐的不断加快,组织工作的民主化、公开化、规范化程度都有了明显提高,但是,对照和谐社会的发展要求,民主开放的广度和深度都还显得不够,今后,重点…     

The market power is in the services: Because the value is in the results

Sandra Vandermerwe is already a pioneer of the notion that including or extending services in a product portfolio adds value. Now she breaks new ground again with a convincing argument that the way to achieve customer satisfaction is through the ability to deliver full solution systems throughout the customer's activity cycle.Customers want results. The power to deliver results lies in value-added services. Companies which offer customers solution systems to meet their demands consisting of product-service components and who base these systems on results, will be the winners in the 1990s. We are in the competitive era of the results-driven systems solution in marketing.Vandermerwe explores this marketing strategy in detail, with examples of successful solution systems from Scandinavian Airline Systems, SKF, Du Pont and DEC. She then offers a customer activity-based diagnostic tool for managers wishing to improve their market strategy.     

Home ownership in the U.K. in the 1980s

1980 saw the highest mortgage rate ever, and yet the demand for owner-occupation and hence for mortgage finance continues. Although the costs of mortgage finance are considerable, particularly for people who have just bought their first homes, there are substantial benefits as well which are more than sufficient to compensate for the cost. This article looks at both the costs and the benefits of a mortgage and considers whether people's enthusiasm for buying their own homes with the help of a mortgage will continue in the changing circumstances of the 1980s.     

Living in the question

We live in a fast moving-world. Business has accelerated to breathtaking speeds in the 1990s--and in the last few years the afterburner has really kicked in. The speed of change is overwhelming. Especially in health care, who has time to "live in the question?" We need to decide things quickly, get the decision out of the way, and move on, right? Maybe. Biology shows us that you can't plan ahead very far. New things come along that you don't even have a category for, and therefore you don't even see them. Things are going to happen that you literally have no notion are even possible. The key to succeeding in this environment? Don't plan ahead. Stay curious. Make small bets. Build organizational hothouses. Feed the seedlings that grow. The challenge is to remain curious, to live in the question, both personally and organizationally.     

Savage in the Market

We develop a behavioral axiomatic characterization of subjective expected utility (SEU) under risk aversion. Given is an individual agent's behavior in the market: assume a finite collection of asset purchases with corresponding prices. We show that such behavior satisfies a “revealed preference axiom” if and only if there exists a SEU model (a subjective probability over states and a concave utility function over money) that accounts for the given asset purchases.