基于屯垦戍边使命的新疆兵团人口发展战略研究

屯垦戍边是中央赋予新疆兵团的使命。屯垦戍边使命的履行需要一个数量充足、素质较高、结构均衡、分布合理的人口,而目前兵团人口存在人口增长水平低、年龄结构老化、劳动力存在结构性矛盾、新职工素质较低等主要问题。本文提出目前兵团的人口发展的两大主要目标应该是扩大人口规模和提高人口素质。     

中国西部少数民族地区人口的贫困原因及其政策启示

中国的少数民族人口主要分布在生态环境恶劣、经济社会发展落后的西部地区,这些地区同时也是贫困人口分布最多的区域。本文首先从地域、人口增长以及国家扶贫战绩几方面分析了西部少数民族地区人口与贫困在地域上的重合性,进而从区域发展、社会公平和政策效果以及贫困人口的人文因素等方面分析了造成少数民族地区人口贫困的原因,认为虽然造成区域性少数民族贫困状况的主要原因来自于区域发展的滞后,但在摆脱贫困的难易方面,政府提供的脱贫服务和民族人口的人文制约因素则起着更为重大的作用。     

珠江—西江经济带人口分布时空演化规律及影响因素分析

基于人口分布指数和空间自相关分析方法,研究2008-2017年珠江—西江经济带包括广东及广西共11市的人口分布时空演化特征以及影响因素。结果表明:珠江—西江经济带人口密度呈现“东高西低”的分布格局,且地区差异显著;低、中、高值地区人口密度的年均增长量上升,人口分布地区差异扩大;人口分布具有不断集中的趋势,且不均衡状态加剧;Moran’s I值不断增大,珠江—西江经济带地区人口密度不断集聚,分布的空间相关性也不断强化。在分析影响因素时,引入空间计量模型,经判别检验后,确立SLM为最优模型,SLM的计量分析结果显示:人均GDP、职工平均工资、产业结构、公共服务水平都对经济带人口分布产生正向影响。因此,要想促进珠江—西江经济带人口合理分布,可以通过加快产业结构调整,推进经济带内一体化发展,提高公共服务水平和加大基础设施建设来实现。     

新疆生产建设兵团人口迁移研究

新疆生产建设兵团承担着国家赋予的屯垦戍边的职责。兵团人口总数中,省际迁移人口占有重要的地位。文章对1954-2004年间兵团人口迁移变化进行了分析,结果表明:兵团人口迁移的变化过程具有波状起伏大和阶段性两大特征。兵团农牧团场是人口迁入的主要地区。迁移人口以青壮年为主,并维持着较高的男女性别比,迁入人口主要以低文化素质的农村人口为主。兵团大规模移民的最主要原因是兵团经济发展对劳动力数量的巨大需求。人口迁移是兵团经济发展的基础,在兵团建立、发展和维护我国边疆稳定中起到了举足轻重的作用。     

基于主成分分析的新疆兵团人口可持续发展研究

区域人口的可持续发展是区域社会经济发展的根本保证,人口的规模、素质和结构都直接关系着社会的存在和发展。文章选取兵团人口规模、职业构成、素质以及生活条件等指标构建了兵团人口的可持续发展指标体系,运用主成分分析法对兵团人口的发展现状及可持续性进行了分析,分析结果是兵团人口的综合发展指数呈下降趋势,发展具有不可持续性。对如何提高兵团人口发展的可持续性提出了具体的建议。     

新疆南疆兵团人力资源结构与经济增长的关联分析

本文以新疆南部兵团经济发展过程中的人力资源作为研究对象,通过对人口规模、农业人口、就业人员数及就业人员产业结构的系统分析。了解人力资源结构与产业结构之间的关系及存在的问题,在此基础上依据实际情况及产业结构调整的方向,就如何妥善处理协调人力资源、经济结构与可持续发展三者之间的关系提供有针对性的可行建议。主要结论：（1）南疆过低的人口比例不利于团场小城镇建设,更不利于发挥维护新疆社会稳定、威慑“三股势力”的重要作用和劳动力的资源储备。（2）南疆兵团产业结构、就业结构与劳动生产率的关系不很匹配．阻碍了农村刺余劳动力的转移。（3）南疆兵团就业结构中一产就业人数比重偏大。非农产业的就业机会严重不足,已成为制约新疆南部经济发展的最大因素。     

贵州喀斯特高原人口分布与自然环境定量研究

贵州所特有的山地高原地形以及喀斯特地质条件,是形成贵州自然环境复杂性和脆弱性的重要原因,也是导致该区人口分布不平衡性增大的主要因素。在高原地区,人口的分布明显受海拔高度、地貌类型、地形坡度等环境因素的影响。同时,贵州高原人口分布又具有特殊性:人口分布并不完全遵循随海拔升高而减少,随海拔降低而增加的规律;喀斯特地质地貌成为制约人口分布实现空间转移的主要因素;在非喀斯特地区,人口分布受侵蚀区面积的影响程度较大,呈现出一种低地指向性的特点。     

新疆生产建设兵团团场老年人口分布研究

基于2010年第六次人口普查数据,研究了新疆生产建设兵团（简称兵团）十三个师所属团场65岁及以上老年人口的年龄分布、性别分布和地域分布。兵团团场2010年老年人口总数为18.3万人,占团场总人口的10.4%,性别比为113.3,年龄中位数为72.1岁。兵团团场的人口年龄结构属于老年型,老年人口比重、老少比和老年抚养比的空间分布不均衡,北疆团场比南疆和东疆团场高。虽然单位土地面积上老年人口的分布不均衡,但是,单位耕地面积上老年人口的分布是均衡的。兵团团场老年人口密度为2.7人/平方公里（土地面积）和17.6人/平方公里（耕地面积）。人口老龄化对北疆团场经济社会发展和养老保障的压力将不断增大,对兵团承担屯垦戍边及保障新疆长治久安任务提出了新的挑战。     

临安市稳定低生育水平的思考

临安市地处浙西山区，是一个典型的山区丘陵县(市)，辖区人口近5l万。近20年来，按1970年的生育水平推算，全市少生12万人，实现了人口再生产类型从高出生、低死亡、高增长到低出生、低死亡、低增长的转变。进一步稳定来之不易的低生育水平，是临安市今后一个时期计划生育工作的主要任务。本文就临安市低生育水平现状、制约因素作些分析，并提出相应的对策建议。     

新疆兵团区域发展的协调性研究:基于人口、资源与公共服务的视角

本文首先利用基尼系数与地理联系率探究兵团人口分布与各类社会经济活动的均衡性,其次从相对资源承载力的演变与区域差异的分析入手,以人口和经济为双重考虑的分析方法,对兵团相对资源承载力进行新探索,再次用变异系数法分析和比较兵团公共服务差异状况。最后得出结论:除重工业外,其它各产业产值与人口分布相对均衡,兵团综合资源承载力稳中有升,兵团公共卫生服务、义务教育、医疗保障服务均等化程度明显提高,养老保障和失业保障服务区域差距逐年扩大。     

广州市人口空间分布变动与郊区化研究——兼与北京、上海的比较

利用第三、四、五次人口普查资料,对广州市人口的空间分布变动进行了详细的分析。结果表明自1980年代以来,广州一直处于城市化和郊区化并存的阶段,一方面大量外来人口的进入使都市区的总人口急剧增加,另一方面从1990年代起中心城区的人口出现较明显的郊区化现象。但与北京、上海相比,广州人口郊区化进程显得较为迟缓,其主要原因是自然条件的限制、行政区划的制约和城市空间发展政策的影响。     

A preliminary inquiry into the interrelationship between population growth and economic development in Hong Kong]

Hong Kong includes Hong Kong Island, Kowloon, New Territory, and more than 230 islands. During World War ii, the population of Hong Kong decreased sharply, and the total number decreased to less than 600,000. Since the war ended in 1945, the population of Hong Kong has been increasing rapidly at an annual rate of 20%. By the end of 1981, its total population had increased to 5.2 million, including 1.25 million newly arrived immigrants. The average age is 24.8. People above the age 65 constitute only 6% of the total population. This shows that there is a sufficient supply of labor for local economic development. Because of continued economic growth, there has been a constant demand for more labor. Low wages provide an excellent condition for high-speed industrial development. An improved quality of professional workers and management personnel also contributes much to Hong Kong's industrial modernization. Because of high employment among the labor population, the general population earns income and spends a great deal, and this has created a rather active economy. General population growth trends include: 1) continued population growth will bring the total population to 6.3 million by the end of 1981, and the housing problem will become more serious; 2) a stable decline in the natural population growth rate will gradually change the population pattern to a low birth, low death, and low natural growth situation; and 3) improvements in science and technology, health care, and living conditions will reduce the death rate, and the average age will lengthen, and with the increase in old people, the demand for social welfare will also increase; and 4) there will be a shortage in experienced labor (professional technicians and high management personnel) in the 1980s. Facing the new situation, Hong Kong's economic structure needs reform, moving from a labor intensive enterprise to a capital-technological intensive enterprise. The market will be expanded and Hong Kong will earn more profit in China's mode rnization process.     

On the relationship between population and education]

The social and historical development of population and education is subject to the restriction of the means of production. Although it is not the major factor in determing the direction of social development, it has a great impact on social progress and historical development. The scale and level of educational development are not only influenced by social and economic conditions but are also related to the scale of population growth and the number of people who receive an education. In studies of the relationship between the population and education, special attention should be given to the impact of population growth upon education as well as the everlasting influence of education upon the population structure and social mobility. Since 1949, because of a rapid population growth, the existing educational system in China has suffered severe damage and destruction. There have been an insufficient number of schools and a shortage of funds for education for quite some time, and the population growth has caused great pressure on education. The relationship between the population and education in a modern society is a rather complicated problem. As a country with a large population and a backward education, China needs to develop its education and promote its population quality in order that favorable conditions may be created for the overall development of Socialist modernization.     

On some characteristics of the population development in the Shenzhen Special Economic Region]

Shenzhen was originally a town in Guandong Province. In 1979, it was made into a Special Economic Region in order to cope with the needs of modernization. Because of rapid economic development, the population has also been growing rapidly. Before 1979, the total population of Shenzhen was only 20,000, both industry and agriculture were backward, and the living standard was low. After it was made a Special Economic Region, its population figure reached 200,000 according to a 1982 report. The age structure of the local population is young, and there are more males than females. In the last two years, because of family planning measures, the natural population growth rate has shown an obvious downward trend. The population development of Shenzhen has several characteristics: 1) the pace of population growth is very fast; 2) the educational level for the population is high, and investment in education is emphasized; 3) population mobility is strong, and it has an extensive impact on the local market, transportation, and social order; 4) the social and economic systems of Hong Kong have a special influence on its population development. Special studies and discussions concerning how to control Shenzhen's population growth, how to determine the trends toward change in age structure, and how to promote population quality and spiritual civilization should be conducted according to characteristics of the local population development.     

The integration and coordination of strategies for population growth and economic development]

Strategies on population growth are the guiding principles for population reproduction and activity. A strategy for economic development is the fundamental policy directing all the economic activities of the nation. These 2 strategies are closely related and support each other. They share some common grounds: 1) with a large population and a high percentage of the population being peasant, the labor productivity remains rather low, and population pressure on the economy is intense; 2) when a country has large territory and rich natural resources, the average arable land for each individual is still not much, and some available resources for each individual are also limited; and 3) the distribution of the population is out of balance. The areas with a higher population density receive more pressure on their economy. This situation explains the need to improve the population distribution. Labor resources should match reasonable with natural resources in order to reduce the pressure on areas with a high population density. Because of the labor's low level professional skill and poor management, modernized constructions have met with serious troubles. Moreover, the traditional view on population and population growth also needs correction. In order to integrate and coordinate these 2 strategies, one needs to understand correctly the connection between the two, and also understand the effects of the economy on the population. In the 2nd step, we need to pay attention to how to control the size of population and improve quality in order to match modernized production patterns. The balance between the two should be achieved with constant efforts. In population growth strategy, efforts are needed to limit quantity, improve quality, adjust the population structure, and redesign the geographical distribution of the population. In the economic development strategy, efforts are needed to promote economic effectiveness, a balanced development and a sustained growth for the national economy, in order to increase industrial and agricultural production and provide more income for each individual.     

A preliminary analysis of the present situation of China's population]

The national census conducted in 1982 provides the most up-to-date statistics on China's population. The following are some characteristics of China's population at the present time, based upon preliminary analysis: (1) The total population figure has passed the one billion mark, but the growth rate has been declining since the 1970s; (2) The population density is higher than other countries of the world, but the distribution is uneven. The percentage of the city population is low, and changes in urban and rural distribution are slow; (3) The population growth of ethnic minorities is higher than average, and the ratio of the minority population is increasing; (4) There are slightly more men than women-an impact of traditional society; (5) The age structure of the population is still young, but sharp change is in the process of developing; (6) Fertility has declined on a large scale, but is still far from reaching the goal of population control; (7) The death rate has remained at a low level for a long period of time, and average lifespan is gradually becoming prolonged; (8) The marital status has remained stable, and people normally marry between the ages of 20 and 30; (9) The cultural and educational level of the general public has been promoted, but still not enough for modernized construction; (10) The employment rate is high, and most of the working population is employed with the departments of material production. The percentage of employment of a service nature is small. A high percentage of the working population is related to agriculture, fishing, and animal husbandry. The precentage of workers in manual labor is much higher than that for mental labor.     

The evaluation of China's population policy]

China's population policy has had tremendous effects on the reduction of fertility. The impact of the population policy is manifested in the following aspects. 1) Reducing the size of the total population by 200 million in 17 years. If the population growth rate had remained at its 1970 level of 2.6/1000, the total population would have been 1.28 billion in 1987. 2) The implementation of the population policy accelerated the process of demographic transition. The mortality decline which began in the early 1950s initiated the demographic transition. The Fertility decline began after the birth control policy was implemented and shifted the transition to a low population growth stage even before the socioeconomic conditions which are considered to be the determinants of fertility decline appeared. The fertility decline, in turn, promoted the socioeconomic development of the country. 3) Solving the problem of food; feeding 21.6% of the world's population on 7.1% of the world's farm land is no easy task. The success of population control, no doubt, played an important role in lowering the population growth rate so that the growth of food production could keep pace with the needs of the population. 4) A decline in the dependency ratio is a favorable condition to socioeconomic development. China's dependency ratio of 59.7 is among the lowest in developing countries and is close to the level in developed countries. Therefore, more production output can be used in investment rather than consumption. 5) The fertility decline facilitated a balanced economic growth. The ratio of population growth as compared to the growth of major economic indicators should be considered an important issue in maintaining macroeconomic control. The population policy made it possible for economic growth to surpass population growth.