A test and modification of zipf’s hypothesis for predicting interstate migration

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the accuracy of Zipf’s hypothesis in estimating interstate migration streams in the United States, and then to determine whether the predictive power of Zipf’s hypothesis can be improved by adding additional variables. The three independent variables in Zipf’s hypothesis accounted for 57 percent of the variation in interstate migration streams in 1935–1940, 61 percent in 1949–1950, and 68 percent in 1955–1960. The addition of per capita personal income of the states of origin and of destination increased the explained variance by only four percentage points in 1935–1940 and by less than one percentage point in 1949–1950 and 1955–1960. Then, the Petersen-Greenwood hypothesis that interstate migration streams in any period are a function of previous flows was tested by adding cumulative lifetime migration as an independent variable. Over 80 percent of the variation in interstate migration streams was explained by cumulative lifetime mobility, as reflected by state of birth data. The conclusion of the study is that the Petersen-Greenwood hypothesis provides a better estimate of interstate migration streams than does Zipf’s hypothesis. Nevertheless, the Petersen Greenwood hypothesis requires further evaluation to determine whether cumulative lifetime mobility is simply a proxy for some other underlying variable and whether it provides accurate estimates of migration streams for other geographic areas.     

The Spatial Distribution of Quality of Life in the United States and Interstate Migration, 1965–1970 and 1985–1990

This study applies a relatively new method called ‘co-plot’ to examine the relationships between the 48 contiguous states of the United States and selected indicators of quality of life in 1970 and 1990, and how these characteristics coincide with five-year interstate migration rates. The findings show an overall process of polarization of quality of life throughout the country. Strong similarity was found between states of a given division or region. The states which composed New England, the Middle Atlantic and the Pacific divisions are located in the strong sector of the socio-economic space. The direction of migration is toward states of the more external belts of the country. In the second part, multiple regression analysis was applied revealing a strong effect of economic incentives on migration; over time; migration turns into a widespread phenomenon among different socio-economic groups, with income becoming less significant as a predictor of interstate migration.     

Welfare reform and interstate migration of poor families

The thesis of this study is that as a result of increased inequalities in welfare rules, the 1996 welfare reform act not only enhanced incentives for poor families to move but also (and perhaps more important) created disincentives for them to stay in "race to the bottom" states. In testing this thesis, we evaluated the mediating and moderating roles of state economic development and family structure. We merged data from three main sources: the 1996-1999 panel of the Survey of Income and Program Participation, the Urban Institute's Welfare Rules Database, and state economic data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Modeling both destination (pull) and departure (push) effects of welfare policy measures and selected covariates in a nested discrete-time event-history migration analysis, we found robust support for the thesis that stringency in state welfare-eligibility and behavior-related rules stimulated interstate out-migration of poor families in the United States. However poor families were not drawn to states with relatively more-lenient welfare rules, although stringency in state welfare dollar benefits inhibited in-migration and state unemployment patterns may have conditioned the migration effects of welfare-reform rules on the choice of destination. Single mothers were not more directly affected by welfare-eligibility and behavior-related rules than were poor married couples.     

From austerity to prosperity? Migration and child poverty among mainland and island Puerto Ricans

Analyses of migrants' economic circumstances typically use the native-born in the destination as a comparison group. We use the 1990 Census Public Use Microdata Samples for the United States and Puerto Rico to demonstrate the benefits of a comparative approach that includes data from both the origin and the destination. Specifically, the primary objective is to determine how and why the risk of child poverty is associated with migration from Puerto Rico to the United States. The results show that migration reduces the risk of child poverty, partly because better jobs are available on the mainland. Employment, human capital, family structure, and public assistance cannot completely explain observed differences. The results also show that the economic benefits of migration continue for the native-born on the mainland and that return migration to Puerto Rico is associated with impoverishment.     

Effects of migration on the educational levels of the black resident population at the origin and destination, 1955–1960 and 1965–1970

Using the 1960 and 1970 census data, this paper analyzes the net effects of the interregional migration of black males on the educational levels of the resident black male population at the regions of origin and destination. Significant variations are observed in the educational selectivity of out-migrants from each region, by region of destination. Comparing the educational levels of the return migrants to the South with those of the resident population in the nonsouthern regions provides no evidence that the return migrants are "failed" migrants. The net effect of interregional migration on the educational levels of the black male resident population at the regions of origin and destination is insignificant in most age groups, for both the 1955--1960 and 1965--1970 periods. In particular, in-migration from the South to nonsouthern regions has little effect on the educational levels of the resident population in most age groups. In fact, for nonsouthern regions, out-migration is more detrimental to the educational level of the resident black male population than is in-migration from the South. Furthermore, the net effect of interregional migration has declined from the 1955--1960 period to the 1965--1970 period.     

A comparison of the determinants of white and nonwhite interstate migration

The primary objective of this study is to present an explanation of the interstate migratory movements of white and nonwhite persons which occurred over the period 1955–1960. The study is similar to several other recent studies in that we estimate the magnitudes in which various factors have influenced interstate or interregional migration in the United States. It differs from earlier studies in two important respects. First, we estimate and compare the magnitudes in which certain factors have influenced both white and nonwhite interstate migration. Second, unlike previous studies, many of which have made “country-wide” estimates of the determinants of migration, we have disaggregated data to the state level and obtained white and nonwhite “migration elasticities” for every state. These elasticities are in turn used to test several additional hypotheses relating to racial and regional differences in the elasticities themselves. We argue that discrimination against nonwhites and/or differences in “social milieu” between South and nonsouth provide a unifying explanation for most of the observed differences in white and nonwhite migration elasticities.     

The effect of immigration on the internal migration of the native-born population, 1981–1990

This study examines the impact of immigration on the labor market opportunities of the native-born population by looking through the window of migration. We use Current Population Survey data to analyze the one-year migration patterns of Anglos and Blacks and include the presence of recent immigrants in the origin and (potential) destination US states among the covariates. Our departure model employs a logit specification to predict outmigration (vs not) from the state during the year prior to the survey. Our arrival model uses a conditional logit discrete choice specification with sampling among the alternatives to predict destination state. The data are taken from the 1981, 1984, 1987, and 1990 Current Population Surveys. This work adds to other knowledge of the migratory response of workers and sheds light on theories of substitution and complementarity in labor markets. States with high levels of recent immigration are less likely to retain Anglo workers or receive new Anglo interstate migrants, but this apparent substitution effect is partially offset by the presence of long-term immigrant stock. Lower skilled Anglos are more susceptible to this substitution effect than those of higher skill level. In the black population, results are more complex. Lower skilled blacks are less attracted to high immigrant locations, but African-Americans of higher skill level in selected occupations and industries are predicted to be more likely to remain in or choose states with many recent immigrants.     

<Emphasis Type="Bold">Interstate Migration and Employer-to-Employer Transitions in the United States: New Evidence From Administrative Records Data</Emphasis>

Declines in migration across labor markets have prompted concerns that the U.S. economy is becoming less dynamic. In this study, we examine the relationship between residential migration and employer-to-employer transitions in the United States, using both survey and administrative records data. We first note strong disagreement between the Current Population Survey (CPS) and other migration statistics on the timing and severity of any decline in U.S. interstate migration. Despite these divergent patterns for overall residential migration, we find consistent evidence of a substantial decline in economic migration between 2000 and 2010. We find that composition and the returns to migration have limited ability to explain recent changes in interstate migration.     

Location of adult children as an attraction for black and white elderly return and onward migrants in the United States: Application of a three-level nested logit model with census data

This article assesses the influence of the location of adult children on the 1985-90 interstate migration of black and white elderly "nonnatives" (i.e., those whose state of residence in 1985 was different from their state of birth) in the United States, based on the application of a three-level nested logit model with 1990 census data. The model accounts for (1) the choice between departing and staying put, (2) the choice between return and onward migration, and (3) the choice of a specific destination. The main findings are as follows. First, elderly nonnatives were strongly attracted by the location of their adult children when they made their migration decisions at all levels of the choice framework, and this attraction was stronger for the widowed than for those of other marital statuses. This finding can be taken as empirical support for Eugene Litwak's theory of the modified extended family. Second, in the return/onward and destination choice processes, the attraction of the location of adult children was found to be stronger for whites than for blacks. This finding is consistent with the finding of Hogan et al. (1993) that whites had stronger inter-generational connections than did blacks.     

Regional—sub-cultural explanations of black fertility in the United States

This paper re-examines the relevance of the hypothesis concerning the Southern sub-culture and black fertility in the United States. According to zero-order correlation analysis, Southern-born blacks show higher fertility than those born in other regions. But a dummy-variable regression technique applied to the data from the 1970 public-use sample indicates that the Southern origin — independent of other factors-is not different from other regions. Southern birth has the effect of increasing black fertility, but much less so than birth in the North Central region. Southern blacks show higher fertility because of their lower socio-economic background. It is concluded that geographical regions in the United States have little or no cultural meaning in explaining reproductive behaviour.     

Regional-sub-cultural explanations of black fertility in the United States

Summary This paper re-examines the relevance of the hypothesis concerning the Southern sub-culture and black fertility in the United States. According to zero-order correlation analysis, Southern-born blacks show higher fertility than those born in other regions. But a dummy-variable regression technique applied to the data from the 1970 public-use sample indicates that the Southern origin - independent of other factors-is not different from other regions. Southern birth has the effect of increasing black fertility, but much less so than birth in the North Central region. Southern blacks show higher fertility because of their lower socio-economic background. It is concluded that geographical regions in the United States have little or no cultural meaning in explaining reproductive behaviour.     

Contextualizing Mexican Migrant Education Selectivity

The debate on whether Mexican immigrants are positively or negatively selected on education has been limited by studying immigrants in data collected only from the sending or the destination country. Using nationally representative data from Mexico that tracked migrants to the United States prospectively, we examine the education selectivity of Mexicans who immigrated to the United States from 2002 to 2005. We find that using reports of migration by remaining household members and proxy substitution of migration education underestimates migrant selectivity. Migrant men and women were positively selected within households and rural municipalities of origin but negatively selected from the national educational distribution. Differences in selectivity by size of place, as well as when considering the local or national context, means that the answer of whether immigrants are positively or negatively selected on education depends on the context considered.     

Work disability and migration in the early years of welfare reform

The inter- and intra-state migration of American families with work-disabled members is a neglected area of empirical study. Longitudinal migration and health status data from the 1996 Panel of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) are merged with state-level welfare policy indicators to investigate migration behavior under welfare reform’s emphasis on requiring work and encouraging reliance on social support networks. We use a nested discrete-choice event history model that incorporates the departure decision and interstate destination choice in a single model that tests the effects of state-level welfare policy and economic opportunity characteristics, with state fixed effects, plus family sociodemographic characteristics and social networks, as the basis for comparing migration of families with and without work disabilities. The results show that although families with disabilities and illnesses are less likely to migrate than other families generally, they are “pushed” to migrate if they live in states that do not exempt them from TANF activities requirements. Furthermore, in-migration is inhibited by stringent state welfare illness exemption rules and high state unemployment rates. Intrastate migration is more likely among families who received family and community social support, regardless of work-disability status.     

Migration and the latino family: The union formation behavior of Puerto Rican women

This study examines the transition to first union among Puerto Rican women. I argue that understanding the behavior of mainland Puerto Ricans requires attention to family patterns in Puerto Rico and to the dynamics of migration between Puerto Rico and the United States. The study therefore is based on pooled data from comparable surveys undertaken in the two settings. These data allow for event history analyses that compare the union formation behavior of migrants with that of nonmigrants, and consider the role of migration in producing the observed union patterns. Multivariate models show that migrants are more likely than nonmigrants to form unions early and to enter informal unions. Additional analyses show that selective migration plays a role in producing this pattern. Overall the findings demonstrate the importance of using data from both origin and destination locales for understanding the behavior of migrant groups.     

Some determinants of the migration of professional manpower

Determinants of migration of professional manpower are investigated using data from a 1970 survey of immigrants to the United States. From a respondent's stated "intent to stay" in the United States and five other characteristics a six-dimensional contingency table is formed. We find a well-fitting log-linear model for this table. Thus, we establish the importance of selected determinants of migration and present a table of predicted rates of intent to stay in the United States.     

Economic opportunity in mexico and return migration from the United States

I analyze the influence of the economic characteristics of origin area on trip duration for Mexican migrants in the United States. I argue that migrants from economically dynamic areas in Mexico with favorable opportunities for employment and small capital investment have a larger incentive to stay in the United States longer and to withstand the psychic costs of separation from family and friends than do migrants from economically stagnant areas in Mexico, where the productive uses of savings are severely limited. In line with this argument we should expect investment opportunities in migrants’ origin areas to be associated positively with migrants’ trip duration in the United States. To test this hypothesis I use individual- and household-level data on U.S migration experience collected in 13 Mexican communities. Evidence from parametric hazards models supports the idea that economic characteristics of origin areas influence the motivations and strategies of Mexican migrants in the United States.     

Immigrant suicide in Australia,Canada, England and Wales,and the United States

Factors influencing the suicide rates of numerous immigrants in groups in Australia, Canada, England and Wales, and the United States during the period 1959–73 were examined. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated for the origin, immigrant and destination native-born populations using the Canadian native-born age-sex-specific suicide rates as the standard. For males, the foreign-born in England and Wales had the lowest suicide rates and the foreign-born in the United States the highest. For females the variation was smaller, with immigrants in the United States having the lowest rates, and those in Australia the highest. Agespecific suicide rates indicated that relative to the native-born, foreign-born elderly had substantially elevated risks of suicide.     

Interdivisional migration differentials by education for groups of selected SMSA’S,United States, 1960

An attempt is made to investigate the educational differentials between various types of interdivisional migrants and nonmigrants in selected Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSA’s) of the United States. The analysis is carried out for four color-sex groups standardized for age. We have been able to identify three distinct patterns of migration differentials by education, that is, the J-shaped, the U-shaped, and the reverse J -shaped distributions. The tendency for migrants to be better educated than nonmigrants, by and large, has received support from the data we have analyzed. Wherever this tendency has not been confirmed, the main factors which, we believe, have influenced the differentials are the proportion of foreign-born whites, the geographic location of the places of origin and destination, and the differences in levels of educational attainment.     

Nativity concentration and internal migration among the foreign-born

Are immigrants who live in states where large numbers of their compatriots reside more or less likely to migrate than those who live in other states? Using 1980 U.S. Census data to address that question, the analysis shows that nativity concentration deters interstate migration but not migration within the same state. Residing in a state where fellow nationals live is a more important determinant of internal migration than human capital, immigration status, or a state’s unemployment rate. New York State residence in 1975 also promotes interstate migration. This research suggests that social dimensions should be taken into account in modeling internal migration of the foreign-born.     

Intercountry adoption in the new millennium; the ``quiet migration' revisited

Intercountry adoption is not usually seen as a matter for demographers, although articles in the International Migration Review have looked at international adoption as a migratory process. This article outlines the author's estimate of the number of intercountry adoptions world-wide, using data recorded by 18 receiving states in the 1990s. Data from selected receiving countries are used to estimate the number of adoptions from states of origin. Comparisons are made with data for 14 countries over the period 1980–89 collated by Kane (1993).The global estimate of at least 32,000 adoptions in 1998 is much higher than thenumbers usually cited and suggest a rise of fifty percent over the previous decade.Total numbers are dominated by adoptions to the United States and from China andRussia. However standardisation against population size or number of live birthssuggests that the highest rates among receiving states are to be found in Scandinavia,while the highest rates for states of origin are in countries of Eastern Europe, followedby Korea – countries typified by very low birth rates. The article ends with a discussion of the implications of these findings for the future of international controls and the implementation of the 1993 Hague Convention.