Statistical Engineering

This article compares the accuracy of the median unbiased estimator with that of the maximum likelihood estimator for a logistic regression model with two binary covariates. The former estimator is shown to be uniformly more accurate than the latter for small to moderately large sample sizes and a broad range of parameter values. In view of the recently developed efficient algorithms for generating exact distributions of sufficient statistics in binary-data problems, these results call for a serious consideration of median unbiased estimation as an alternative to maximum likelihood estimation, especially when the sample size is not large, or when the data structure is sparse.     

Quantile regression for panel data models with fixed effects under random censoring

Abstract

The locally weighted censored quantile regression approach is proposed for panel data models with fixed effects, which allows for random censoring. The resulting estimators are obtained by employing the fixed effects quantile regression method. The weights are selected either parametrically, semi-parametrically or non-parametrically. The large panel data asymptotics are used in an attempt to cope with the incidental parameter problem. The consistency and limiting distribution of the proposed estimator are also derived. The finite sample performance of the proposed estimators are examined via Monte Carlo simulations.     

Comparison of the estimators of the intra-cluster correlation for the nested error regression model

The intra-cluster correlation is insisted on nested error regression model that, in practice, is rarely known. This article demonstrates the size in generalized least squares (GLS) F-test using Fuller–Battese transformation and modification F-test. For the balanced case, the former using strictly positive, analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) and analysis of variance (ANOVA) estimators of intra-cluster correlation can control the size for moderate intra-cluster correlations. For small intra-cluster correlation, they perform well when the numbers of cluster are large. The latter using the ANOVA estimator performs well except for small numbers of cluster. When intra-cluster correlation is large, it cannot control the size. For the unbalanced case, the GLS F-test using the Fuller–Battese transformation and the modification F-test using the strictly positive, the ANCOVA and the ANOVA estimators maintain the significance level for small total sample size and small intra-cluster correlations when there is a large variation in cluster sizes, but they perform well in controlling the size for large total sample size and small different variation in cluster sizes. Besides, Henderson’s method 3 estimator maintains the significance level for a few situations.     

A Horvitz-Thompson Estimator of the Population Mean Using Inclusion Probabilities of Ranked Set Sampling

In this study, we define the Horvitz-Thompson estimator of the population mean using the inclusion probabilities of a ranked set sample in a finite population setting. The second-order inclusion probabilities that are required to calculate the variance of the Horvitz-Thompson estimator were obtained. The Horvitz-Thompson estimator, using the inclusion probabilities of ranked set sample, tends to be more efficient than the classical ranked set sampling estimator especially in a positively skewed population with small sizes. Also, we present a real data example with the volatility of gasoline to illustrate the Horvitz-Thompson estimator based on ranked set sampling.     

MODEL‐BASED DIRECT ESTIMATION OF SMALL‐AREA DISTRIBUTIONS

Much of the small‐area estimation literature focuses on population totals and means. However, users of survey data are often interested in the finite‐population distribution of a survey variable and in the measures (e.g. medians, quartiles, percentiles) that characterize the shape of this distribution at the small‐area level. In this paper we propose a model‐based direct estimator (MBDE, Chandra and Chambers) of the small‐area distribution function. The MBDE is defined as a weighted sum of sample data from the area of interest, with weights derived from the calibrated spline‐based estimate of the finite‐population distribution function introduced by Harms and Duchesne, under an appropriately specified regression model with random area effects. We also discuss the mean squared error estimation of the MBDE. Monte Carlo simulations based on both simulated and real data sets show that the proposed MBDE and its associated mean squared error estimator perform well when compared with alternative estimators of the area‐specific finite‐population distribution function.     

Improved estimators for the location of double exponential distribution

In this paper, attention is focused on estimation of the location parameter in the double exponential case using a weighted linear combination of the sample median and pairs of order statistics, with symmetric distance to both sides from the sample median. Minimizing with respect to weights and distances we get smaller asymptotic variance in the second order. If the number of pairs is taken as infinite and the distances as null we attain the least asymptotic variance in this class of estimators. The Pitman estimator is also noted. Similarly improved estimators are scanned over their probability of concentration to investigate its bound. Numerical comparison of the estimators is shown.     

Efficient estimation of the PDF and the CDF of the inverse Rayleigh distribution

In this paper, we consider the estimation of the probability density function and the cumulative distribution function of the inverse Rayleigh distribution. In this regard, the following estimators are considered: uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator, maximum likelihood (ML) estimator, percentile estimator, least squares estimator and weighted least squares estimator. To do so, analytical expressions are derived for the mean integrated squared error. As the result of simulation studies and real data applications indicate, when the sample size is not very small the ML estimator performs better than the others.     

MSE performance of the weighted average estimators consisting of shrinkage estimators when each individual regression coefficient is estimated

In this paper, we analytically derive the exact formula for the mean squared error (MSE) of two weighted average (WA) estimators for each individual regression coefficient. Further, we execute numerical evaluations to investigate small sample properties of the WA estimators, and compare the MSE performance of the WA estimators with the other shrinkage estimators and the usual OLS estimator. Our numerical results show that (1) the WA estimators have smaller MSE than the other shrinkage estimators and the OLS estimator over a wide region of parameter space; (2) the range where the relative MSE of the WA estimator is smaller than that of the OLS estimator gets narrower as the number of explanatory variables k increases.     

Finite sample properties of beale's ratio estimator

In this paper, the exact blas and mean square error of Beale's ratio estimator are derived under a blvariate normal nlodel in the form of an infinite series. It is found that some conventional large sample approxlmatlons are extremely poor if the relative variance of the auxlllary variable X is large. It is also brought out through this.study that Beale's estimator of the population mean seems to be more efficient than the usual sanple mean under the condition resulting from the large sample comparison of the customary ratio estimator and the usual sample mean.     

Ordinary and weighted least-squares estimators

We propose a method of estimating the asymptotic relative efficiency (ARE) of the weighted least-squares estimator (WLSE) with respect to the ordinary least-squares estimator (OLSE) in a heteroscedastic linear regression model with a large number of observations but a small number of replicates at each value of the regressors. The weights used in the WLSE are the reciprocals of the (within-group) average of squared residuals. It is shown that the OLSE is more efficient than the WLSE if the maximum number of replicates is not larger than two. The proposed estimator of the ARE is consistent as the number of observations tends to infinity. Finite-sample performance of this estimator is examined in a simulation study. An adaptive estimator, which is asymptotically more efficient than the OLSE and the WLSE, is proposed.     

Assessing bias of multicenter trials with incomplete treatment allocation

Some multicenter randomized controlled trials (e.g. for rare diseases or with slow recruitment) involve many centers with few patients in each. Under within-center randomization, some centers might not assign each treatment to at least one patient; hence, such centers have no within-center treatment effect estimates and the center-stratified treatment effect estimate can be inefficient, perhaps to an extent with statistical and ethical implications. Recently, combining complete and incomplete centers with a priori weights has been suggested. However, a concern is whether using the incomplete centers increases bias. To study this concern, an approach with randomization models for a finite population was used to evaluate bias of the usual complete center estimator, the simple center-ignoring estimator, and the weighted estimator combining complete and incomplete centers. The situation with two treatments and many centers, each with either one or two patients, was evaluated. Various patient accrual mechanisms were considered, including one involving selection bias. The usual complete center estimator and the weighted estimator were unbiased under the overall null hypothesis, even with selection bias. An actual dermatology clinical trial motivates and illustrates these methods.     

MSE performance of the weighted average estimators consisting of shrinkage estimators

In this paper, we consider a regression model and propose estimators which are the weighted averages of two estimators among three estimators; the Stein-rule (SR), the minimum mean squared error (MMSE), and the adjusted minimum mean-squared error (AMMSE) estimators. It is shown that one of the proposed estimators has smaller mean-squared error (MSE) than the positive-part Stein-rule (PSR) estimator over a moderate region of parameter space when the number of the regression coefficients is small (i.e., 3), and its MSE performance is comparable to the PSR estimator even when the number of the regression coefficients is not so small.     

Multilevel modelling of complex survey data

Summary.  Multilevel modelling is sometimes used for data from complex surveys involving multistage sampling, unequal sampling probabilities and stratification. We consider generalized linear mixed models and particularly the case of dichotomous responses. A pseudolikelihood approach for accommodating inverse probability weights in multilevel models with an arbitrary number of levels is implemented by using adaptive quadrature. A sandwich estimator is used to obtain standard errors that account for stratification and clustering. When level 1 weights are used that vary between elementary units in clusters, the scaling of the weights becomes important. We point out that not only variance components but also regression coefficients can be severely biased when the response is dichotomous. The pseudolikelihood methodology is applied to complex survey data on reading proficiency from the American sample of the 'Program for international student assessment' 2000 study, using the Stata program gllamm which can estimate a wide range of multilevel and latent variable models. Performance of pseudo-maximum-likelihood with different methods for handling level 1 weights is investigated in a Monte Carlo experiment. Pseudo-maximum-likelihood estimators of (conditional) regression coefficients perform well for large cluster sizes but are biased for small cluster sizes. In contrast, estimators of marginal effects perform well in both situations. We conclude that caution must be exercised in pseudo-maximum-likelihood estimation for small cluster sizes when level 1 weights are used.     

A note on calibration weightings for stratified double sampling with equal probability

This study proposes a more efficient calibration estimator for estimating population mean in stratified double sampling using new calibration weights. The variance of the proposed calibration estimator has been derived under large sample approximation. Calibration asymptotic optimum estimator and its approximate variance estimator are derived for the proposed calibration estimator and existing calibration estimators in stratified double sampling. Analytical results showed that the proposed calibration estimator is more efficient than existing members of its class in stratified double sampling. Analysis and evaluation are presented.     

Computational comparison of the general weighted moments estimators of the scale parameter of a Pareto distribution with a known shape parameter with other estimators based on a multiply type II-censored sample

Wu et al. [Computational comparison for weighted moments estimators and BLUE of the scale parameter of a Pareto distribution with known shape parameter under type II multiply censored sample, Appl. Math. Comput. 181 (2006), pp. 1462–1470] proposed the weighted moments estimators (WMEs) of the scale parameter of a Pareto distribution with known shape parameter on a multiply type II-censored sample. They claimed that some WMEs are better than the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE) based on the exact mean-squared error (MSE). In this paper, the general WME (GWME) is proposed and the computational comparison of the proposed estimator with the WMEs and BLUE is done on the basis of the exact MSE for given sample sizes and different censoring schemes. As a result, the GWME is performing better than the best estimator among 12 WMEs and BLUE for all cases. Therefore, GWME is recommended for use. At last, one example is given to demonstrate the proposed GWME.     

Variance reduction of estimators arising from Metropolis–Hastings algorithms

The Metropolis–Hastings algorithm is one of the most basic and well-studied Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. It generates a Markov chain which has as limit distribution the target distribution by simulating observations from a different proposal distribution. A proposed value is accepted with some particular probability otherwise the previous value is repeated. As a consequence, the accepted values are repeated a positive number of times and thus any resulting ergodic mean is, in fact, a weighted average. It turns out that this weighted average is an importance sampling-type estimator with random weights. By the standard theory of importance sampling, replacement of these random weights by their (conditional) expectations leads to more efficient estimators. In this paper we study the estimator arising by replacing the random weights with certain estimators of their conditional expectations. We illustrate by simulations that it is often more efficient than the original estimator while in the case of the independence Metropolis–Hastings and for distributions with finite support we formally prove that it is even better than the “optimal” importance sampling estimator.     

Sample size calculations for single-arm survival studies using transformations of the Kaplan–Meier estimator

In single-arm clinical trials with survival outcomes, the Kaplan–Meier estimator and its confidence interval are widely used to assess survival probability and median survival time. Since the asymptotic normality of the Kaplan–Meier estimator is a common result, the sample size calculation methods have not been studied in depth. An existing sample size calculation method is founded on the asymptotic normality of the Kaplan–Meier estimator using the log transformation. However, the small sample properties of the log transformed estimator are quite poor in small sample sizes (which are typical situations in single-arm trials), and the existing method uses an inappropriate standard normal approximation to calculate sample sizes. These issues can seriously influence the accuracy of results. In this paper, we propose alternative methods to determine sample sizes based on a valid standard normal approximation with several transformations that may give an accurate normal approximation even with small sample sizes. In numerical evaluations via simulations, some of the proposed methods provided more accurate results, and the empirical power of the proposed method with the arcsine square-root transformation tended to be closer to a prescribed power than the other transformations. These results were supported when methods were applied to data from three clinical trials.     

Unbiased Estimation of the Distribution Function of an Exponential Population Using Order Statistics with Application in Ranked Set Sampling

In this paper we consider the problem of unbiased estimation of the distribution function of an exponential population using order statistics based on a random sample. We present a (unique) unbiased estimator based on a single, say ith, order statistic and study some properties of the estimator for i = 2. We also indicate how this estimator can be utilized to obtain unbiased estimators when a few selected order statistics are available as well as when the sample is selected following an alternative sampling procedure known as ranked set sampling. It is further proved that for a ranked set sample of size two, the proposed estimator is uniformly better than the conventional nonparametric unbiased estimator, further, for a general sample size, a modified ranked set sampling procedure provides an unbiased estimator uniformly better than the conventional nonparametric unbiased estimator based on the usual ranked set sampling procedure.     

A new nonparametric estimator for the mean of the selected population

A modified bootstrap estimator of the mean of the population selected from two populations is proposed which is a convex combination of the two sample means, where the weights are random quantities. The estimator is shown to be strongly consistent. The small sample behavior of the estimator is investigated and compared with some competitors by means of Monte Carlo studies. It is found that the newly proposed estimator has smaller mean squared error for a wide range of parameter values.     

Some conditions for optimality of the almost unbiased estimators of regression coefficients

The purpose of this paper is to examine the asymptotic properties of the operational almost unbiased estimator of regression coefficients which includes almost unbiased ordinary ridge estimator a s a special case. The small distrubance approximations for the bias and mean square error matrix of the estimator are derived. As a consequence, it is proved that, under certain conditions, the estimator is more efficient than a general class of estimators given by Vinod and Ullah (1981). Also it is shown that, if the ordinary ridge estimator (ORE) dominates the ordinary least squares estimator then the almost unbiased ordinary ridge estimator does not dominate ORE under the mean square error criterion.