对2000年人口普查人口总数的初步评价

第五次人口普查公布 ,2 0 0 0年 1 1月 1日零时 ,大陆 3 1个省、自治区、直辖市总人口为 1 2 65 83万人 ,漏报率为 1 81 %。意味着普查直接登记人口只有 1 2 43 3 7万人 ,比公布人数少 2 2 46万人。本文从几个方面对普查直接登记的 1 2 43 3 7万人进行了评估 ,指出普查登记人口确实存在一定程度的漏报 ,漏报人口超过 2 0 0 0万。     

Significance and effect of the population census]

A summary of topics on which the Chinese government is seeking further information through the 1982 census is provided. Topics to be covered include total population; fertility, mortality, and growth rates; urban and rural population distribution; population projections, including age, sex, and marital status characteristics; labor force size; and minority population estimates.     

2000年人口普查实施效果和提出的挑战

20 0 0年人口普查是一次难度空前的普查。为了获得准确的资料 ,国务院人口普查办公室对普查方案做了改进 ,采用了一些新的技术。从实施效果来看 ,证明这些改进是十分必要的。尽管如此 ,这次普查的漏登率却比 1 990年普查大幅度提高 ,达到了 1 .81 %。导致人口普查漏登率上升的因素是多方面的 ,既有方案设计上的 ,也有组织实施、普查环境变化的影响。认真研究这些问题以及解决的对策 ,对改进我国的人口统计是非常重要的     

我国第四次人口普查漏报情况的重新估计--基于第五次人口普查的分析

文章对2000年第五次人口普查数据的调查时点进行调整以后,重新估计了我国1990年第四次人口普查数据的漏报率,结论认为,1990年四普的漏报率远高于四普公布的漏报率,其中低年龄段的漏报非常严重.因此四普数据的质量并没有我们以前所认为的那样好.     

"四普"至"五普"间中国城镇人口增长构成分析

利用 1 990年第四次人口普查和 2 0 0 0年第五次人口普查的资料 ,对在“四普”至“五普”间中国城镇人口增长构成进行了分析。分析结果表明 ,在新增长的城镇人口中 ,有 5 2 %是来自于地域的重新划分 ,有 31 %是来自于人口从农村向城镇的迁移 ,来自于城镇人口自然增长的只有 1 7%。本文认为 ,未来中国的城市化应当主要依靠人口从农村向城镇的迁移 ,因此 ,采取有效的政策和措施 ,解决好从农村迁移到城镇的人口的就业和生活 ,使他们能够顺利向城镇转移 ,这对于 2 1世纪中国城市化的发展至关重要。     

第五次全国人口普查登记的难点及其解决办法

(1)外来人口。《第五次全国人口普查办法》规定了普查登记采用按常住人口登记的原则，每个人必须在常住地登记。这个规定虽然在提法上与第三次、第四次人口普查一样，但是，作为常住地的判断标准，第五次人口普查在二个方面作了改动。一是常住人口的时间标准由一年改为半年；二是空间标准由县、市范围缩小到乡、镇、街道的范围，更改的目的是力求能更真实地反映出人口在流量和流向……     

2000年中国第五次人口普查漏报评估及年中人口估计

20 0 0年第五次全国人口普查公报称普查漏报率为 1 81 % ,据此推算漏报人口 2 2 91万人 ,然而 ,这些人口的性别、年龄等人口特征不祥 ,这给人们研究社会经济发展中的实际问题带来非常大的不便。本研究就是在准确估计 1 990～ 2 0 0 0年分性别、年龄死亡概率的情况下 ,利用年龄移算方法对 1 990年和 2 0 0 0年两次人口普查的漏报率给予评估 ,并对漏报人口进行年龄、性别拆分 ,从而较为准确地估计得到 2 0 0 0年年中年龄性别人口 ,以为科研或了解我国人口发展状况之用     

The characteristics of population growth of the Dongxiang nationality and the necessity of carrying out family planning]

For a long time, the Dongxiang nationality has lived in the area of Dongxiang, which is a part of Gu Hezhou in Gansu Province. Among the various minorities in China, the Dongxiang people has been noted for their small population. In recent years, however, their population growth rate has been very high. Statistics show their annual population growth rate was 13.5% in 1970 and 32.8% in 1980. This situation is caused mainly by the young age of the population (young persons under the age of 19 constitute 55.7% of the entire population). Because of the popularity of Islam among the people, the custom of early marriage and having children at an early age has long been a tradition. Rapid population growth has created numerous problems. Food production has been unable to keep up with the speed of the population growth, and economic development cannot satisfy the needs of the rapid growing population. The Dongxiang people are physically healthy and strong, and marriages between close relatives is prohibited. Because of the backward condition in education and culture, efforts to promote the quality of the Dongxiang population have remained slow and ineffective. Starting in 1974, the local government in Dongxiang launched extensive birth control projects and positive results have been achieved. At the present time, about 62% of its population have taken birth control measures, and the natural population growth rate dropped to 15.34% in 1982.     

Characteristics of the statute of China's population census in 1982]

China's 1982 census is described. The purpose was to contribute to the modernization of socialism. It was based on current conditions in China and conducted under government supervision using the international experience of the US, Canada, the Philippines, and Japan and with UN assistance for census sampling methods and computer data processing techniques. The census was taken with a strong emphasis on procedural quality control. Its target was Chinese citizens living in China and its territories; each individual was to be registered in his own domicile. The 1982 census listed 19 category items, over twice as many as the 1953 and 1964 censuses. Added to the basic information items of name, relationship to head of household, sex, age, ethnic origin, and education, were new items including employment, marital status, total number of births, number of children still living, and number of births, deaths and age at death in the previous year. The new categories instituted progressive approaches such as recording children of unwed mothers; and in education, recognizing experience level of older workers having little formal education but considerable practical expertise, including temporary employees in employment categories. Major difficulties were encountered in the data collection process: wide differences in education level among residents of the various geographical locations; registration of permanent residents using the household registration; registration of the transient population and people living on boats; determining employment classifications; and rendering the data suitable for data processing. However, the census was performed scientifically; census-takers interviewed each family and individual, and data was meticulously collected, calculated, and processed twice.     

The function and significance of coding in the population census]

The importance and practicality of a nationally standardized census code for China's population are outlined in this paper. Due to the diversity and size of China's population, the tremendous cost of conducting a national census depends to a large extent on the development of an efficient, simple, comprehensive, and easily completed census form. Codifying information is regarded as a means for greatly simplifying computerized data processing of census forms, although past problems with misinterpretation of instructions by census takers in various parts of the country have caused massive backlogs, errors, and duplication of effort. A key problem discussed is the matter of converting Chinese characters (from census forms) into a computerized format for data processing. It is proposed that a nationally standardized code for reducing economic and technical information be established in order to streamline both national and local surveys.     

人口普查净误差率的估计

人口普查的基本目标是估计其净误差率.以美国为代表的诸多国家通常使用基于配对样本的双系统估计量估计实际人口数,并以它为标准估计人口普查的净误差率.瑞士则通过构造基于非配对样本的普查人口数与实际人口数的比率估计量的方法来估计净误差率.利用实际数据资料和有关公式,瑞士普查局估计了2000年人口普查的净误差率,普查遗漏率和普查错误计数率.实证结果表明,瑞士2000年人口普查计数质量较高.     

对第五次全国人口普查数据中总量和结构的估计

本文对第五次人口普查有关数据进行粗略分析后发现 ,官方公布的人口总数与年龄结构存在一定程度的不吻合。第五次人口普查公布的未成年人口数量过低 ,由此估计的总和生育率甚至低于政策生育水平 ,令人难以置信。文章在分析了出现这种现象的各种可能性后 ,对目前中国生育水平进行了估计。     

The main contents and characteristics of the third national population census]

The Chinese State Council publicized rules and regulations for the 3rd national population census on February 19, 1982. In 28 chapters, this document outlined the leadership organization, target of the census, time and space of the census, performance evaluation, and the transaction and publication of the data collected. 1 special feature of this census is the connection between the need for current modernized construction and possible conditions available. Altogether there are 19 items in this census, while the last census had only 9 items. Among the newly added items are: 1) those concerning economic characteristics, 2) those on population growth, and 3) those on the household condition of the constant population. Another special feature of the 3rd national population census is the combination of China's own working experience in population and that of foreign countries. In the skills of modernized calculation, new experience from foreign countries has been fully utilized. The scientific method has been used to design the census form, a sample examination, the coding of collected data, and data registration through the use of computers. The 3rd national population census has been successful for 3 main reasons: 1) extensive support from the general public, 2) strict organization and hard work, and 3) modernized computers used in calculation.     

2000年全国人口普查的长表抽样和数据评估及应用

论述 2 0 0 0年人口普查长短表技术的特点 ,长表抽样方法、组织实施方法以及长表抽样误差分析和数据评估 ,并就长表数据推算普查总体的方法和长表数据的应用进行讨论。     

Plans for the 1970 census of population and housing

The Nineteenth Decennial Census of the United States, covering both population and housing, will be conducted as of April 1, 1970. Planning, testing, and preparatory activities have been underway since early in the decade. Extensive discussions with users of census data led to relatively minor changes in subject content as compared to 1960, but a major increase in the amount of statistics to be tabulated, especially for small geographic areas. For about 60 to 65 percent of the population, the information will be collected through a new mail-out/mail-back system. The rest of the country will be covered by house-to-house canvass. Special efforts to alleviate the serious problem of underenumeration are being undertaken, particularly in the hard-to-enumerate portions of the big cities. The geographic program includes an “address coding guide” through which location identification in most urban areas can be made to specific side of block; this will permit tabulations for new types of small areas. Processing of the data will be performed with the Census Bureau’s Fosdic equipment and advanced computers. Dissemination of the census results will be in the traditional type of printed reports but also, in substantially greater subject and area detail, through magnetic tape, special printouts, etc. To help users exploit the potentialities of the latter material, the Bureau has instituted a “data access” informational program. As in previous censuses, there will be a number of studies to evaluate the 1970 procedures and results.     

On the role played by household registration materials in China's 1982 population census]

The author examines the relationship between the 1982 census and the population registration system in China. Because the household registration data are so complete (they include data on permanent and temporary residence, births, deaths, and migration), they were used as a starting point for census taking. In order for the census to take advantage of household registrations, the registration data were reviewed and corrected. This both reduced the cost of taking the census and improved the quality of the registration data.     

Practising planned birth and carrying out the education of transforming social traditions]

Practicing planned birth involves more than having fewer children; it revolutionizes old habits and customs. According to Confucian and Mencian tents, of the 3 unfilial acts, to lack an heir is the greatest. Even today some believe that only males are capable of carrying on the family line, but actually both male and female are posterity because: 1) historically, there have been societies where only women were considered to be heirs; 2) scientifically, both men and women pass on hereditary characteristics; 3) racially, all men and women are children of the nation. Further, the following old ideas must be addressed: traditionally a woman married into a man's family and thus was not considered an heir, but a man can just as easily become a member of the woman's family; 2) in old China women had no inheritance rights, but by law they now do, so they can be heirs; 3) when women married they took the man's surname and it was thus thought her family line would die, but posterity and surnames are two separate matters. The traditional attitude that "the more the offspring, the greater the prosperity" is not necessarily true because: 1) a big family does not necessarily mean there are more people to work because children under 16 years old cannot contribute to the family's labor force and need to be supported; 2) when children mature, they marry and must use their resources for their own family, so they cannot continue to subsidize their parents; furthermore, a big family requires enough land and agricultural implements to work it; 3) even though a big family has a greater income, expenditures are also larger. The traditional attitude of "raising children to forestall the problems of old age" no longer applies because with or without children the elderly can rely on the socialist system of ownership.     

上海市人户分离状况的空间特征分析——基于“六普”数据

＂六普＂数据显示,近几年上海市人户分离状况呈现出新的空间特征,主要表现在：人户分离人口的规模和迁移率在空间分布上呈现出严重的不均衡;大部分区县人户分离人口的来源地及迁居目的地集中化程度高,具有＂近邻优先＂的特点;逐步形成由中心城区县流向近郊区区县和中心城区县之间相互流动的两大迁移圈;中心城核心区、边缘区、近郊区、远郊区等四大区域之间的人户分离人口流动呈现出三大迁居主流。本文在总结这些空间特征的同时,就如何解决上海市人户分离问题提出了几点建议,以期上海市内户籍人口的迁移能科学健康有序进行。     

Evaluation of the results of China's 1982 population census and the problems raised by the IUSSP Florence Conference]

The author discusses the evaluation by IUSSP members of China's 1982 population census and outlines questions raised at the 1985 conference in Florence. While the quality of the census data was generally favorably assessed by those attending the workshop, the following points were made: The population size, obtained by summing all age groups, is inconsistent with the total population recorded in the census; fertility, mortality, and national growth rates for the Chinese population over the years are different in various official publications; and the sex ratio, 1.08:1 in 1981, may be caused by underreporting.     

Population quality must be improved to carry out the strategic goal of economic construction]

The poor population quality (quality of life of the population as a whole) of Zhejiang Province in southeast China and the imperative need for its improvement are the subject of this report. Its 40 million inhabitants have a life expectancy of 69 years. For every 1000 people there is only 1 doctor and 1.7 hospital beds. These figures are lower for all the other southeastern provinces. According to the 1982 census, there are 47 college graduates, 517 high school graduates, and 1779 middle school graduates for every 10,000 people. The quality of life of the population can be improved through increased productivity because there is a direct relationship between the 2. Although China already enjoys a high level of productivity, it is up to the government to concentrate its efforts on the quality of productivity through reform. China's political structure, its rules, regulations and conventions have contributed to making the economy backward. A substantial change within the social system is imperative to put China's economy on a more progressive footing. Moreover, efforts in family planning must continue. The current population growth rate is not commensurate with the economic growth rate. As population control and population quality are interrelated, a smaller population would mean a higher standard of living. The report concludes that in order to fulfill the strategic goal of economic construction quality is a task that cannot be postponed, since it concerns Zhejiang Province's economic projections, as well as the quality of the new labor force that will be in place by then.