SELECTION INTO AUCTIONS FOR RISKY AND AMBIGUOUS PROSPECTS

We study experimentally the selection into first‐price sealed‐bid auctions for a risky or an ambiguous prospect. Most subjects chose to submit a bid for the risky prospect, leading to thinner markets for the ambiguous prospect. Transaction prices for both prospects were equal although subjects expected the ambiguous markets to be smaller. Evidence of a positive correlation between risk and ambiguity aversion suggests that the ambiguous markets were populated by relatively risk tolerant bidders. A control experiment with selection in a simple choice task shows that subjects correctly anticipate the effects of selection on market size and risk attitudes. (JEL C91, D44, D81)     

MEASURING THE WELFARE GAIN FROM PERSONAL COMPUTERS

The welfare gain to consumers from the introduction of personal computers (PCs) is estimated. A simple model of consumer demand is formulated that uses a slightly modified version of standard preferences. The modification permits marginal utility, and hence total utility, to be finite when the consumption of computers is zero. This implies that the good will not be consumed at a high enough price. It also bounds the consumer surplus derived from the product. The model is calibrated/estimated using standard national income and product account data. The welfare gain from the introduction of PCs is 2%–3% of consumption expenditure. (JEL E01, E21, O33, O47)     

PEER EFFECTS IN HIGHER EDUCATION: DOES THE FIELD OF STUDY MATTER?

Does the peer effect vary with the field of study? Using data from a middle‐sized public university located in southern Italy and exploiting the random assignment of first‐year students to college accommodation, we find that roommate peer effects for freshmen enrolled in the hard sciences are positive and significantly larger than for freshmen enrolled in the humanities and social sciences. We present a simple theoretical model which suggests that the uncovered differences between fields in the size of the peer effect could plausibly be generated by between‐field variation in labor market returns, which affect optimal student effort. (JEL I21, Z13, J24)     

Consumer racial discrimination: A reassessment of the market for baseball cards

Research on the presence of consumer racial discrimination in the baseball labor and memorabilia markets has produced contradictory empirical results. While studies of baseball salaries find no evidence of discrimination, Nardinelli and Simon (1990) and Andersen and La Croix (1991) use data from the baseball card market to show that the price that consumers pay for a card depends on the player’s race. In this paper, we reconsider the evidence of consumer discrimination in the baseball card market. Our study improves on previous research by applying more appropriate econometric methods and using a data set in which card supply is constant and incentives for speculative demand are weaker. In contradiction to the aforementioned studies, we find little evidence of racial discrimination. This result proves robust across variable specifications and econometric models. The authors thank Tyler Cowen, Kevin Grier, David Levy, Barb McKiernan, Don Palmer, Dan Sutler, and Bob Tollison for helpful suggestions on an earlier draft.     

ELECTRIC AND PLUG‐IN HYBRID VEHICLE DEMAND: LESSONS FOR AN EMERGING MARKET

Understanding demand in the new plug‐in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) market is critical to designing more effective adoption policies. We use stated preference data from an innovative choice experiment to estimate demand for PHEVs relative to battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and to explore heterogeneity in demand for these vehicles. We find the gap between willingness to pay for PHEVs and their price premium over conventional vehicles is on the order of current subsidies, while that of BEVs is an order of magnitude larger. We use a latent class model to show PHEVs draw a different consumer segment into the market. (JEL Q5, R41)     

DEMAND FOR DIFFERENTIATED DURABLE PRODUCTS: THE CASE OF THE U.S. COMPUTER PRINTER MARKET

This paper develops an estimation technique for analyzing the impact of technological change on the dynamics of consumer demand in a differentiated durable products industry. The paper presents a dynamic model of consumer demand for differentiated durable products that explicitly accounts for consumers' expectations of future product quality and consumers' outflow from the market that arises endogenously from their purchase decisions. The timing of consumers' purchases is formalized as an optimal stopping problem. A solution to that problem defines the hazard rate of product adoptions, while the nested discrete choice model determines the alternative‐specific purchase probabilities. Integrating individual decisions over the population distribution generates rich dynamics of aggregate and product‐level sales. The empirical part of the paper applies the model to data on the U.S. computer printer market for 1998–1999. The estimates support the hypothesis of consumers' forward‐looking behavior, allowing for better demand forecasts and improved measures of welfare gains from introducing new products. (JEL L11, C35, D91)     

Motivations and Differential Participation in a Community Currency System: The Dynamics Within a Local Social Movement Organization1

Community currency is an understudied, alternative social movement. These local networks are grassroots, collective efforts to form an alternative market with the hopes of empowering the economically marginalized and building social capital. Original data collected from members of a local currency system are employed to investigate their motivations to join and the congruence between motivating factors and various forms of participation. Four categories of motivations are identified and multivariate models are estimated to assess which are the most salient predictors of differential participation. The results provide some support for the congruence hypothesis. As Knoke (1988) predicted, member motivations play a role in shaping forms of participation. This evidence is used to draw larger implications for social movement research.     

CONSUMER CREDIT,LIQUIDITY, AND THE TRANSMISSION MECHANISM OF MONETARY POLICY

That the lending channel is alive and well for consumer lending is at first glance a compelling notion given the growth in consumer credit. However, this paper demonstrates with disaggregated monthly consumer credit data that the consumer loan‐supply effect has diminished over time. Contrary to assumptions motivating the lending channel, after the mid‐1980s, households are not constrained in accessing nonrevolving or revolving bank loans in response to a monetary shock. The findings of this paper have important implications for research on the monetary transmission mechanism beyond the lending channel and for business cycle research in general. (JEL E44, E50, E60, C32)     

ESTIMATING TIME‐VARYING BARGAINING POWER: A FISHERY APPLICATION

We propose an unobserved‐components‐inspired approach to estimate time‐varying bargaining power in bilateral bargaining frameworks. We apply the technique to an ex‐vessel fish market that changed management systems from a regulated open‐access system to an individual fishing quota (IFQ) system over the timespan analyzed. We find that post‐IFQ implementation fishers do improve their bargaining power and thus accrue more of the rents generated by the fishery. However, unlike previous studies, we find that fishers do not move to a point of complete rent extraction. Rather, fishers and processors appear to be in a near‐symmetric bargaining situation post‐IFQ implementation. (JEL C22, L11, Q22)     

CREDIBLE SIGNALS OF THE RELEASE OF NEW VERSIONS

Prices can credibly signal whether a durable‐goods monopolist will offer an improved good in the future. When the future release of a new version is private information, a monopoly seller will reveal a failure to develop and market a new version with a lower price than he or she would charge in full information. A firm would be willing to pay more to innovate when consumers are uncertain than if they are informed ex ante because a failure to innovate is punished by a low equilibrium price. Consumers' uncertainty about innovation intensifies an unsuccessful innovator's Coasian problem and increases consumer welfare. (JEL D82, L12, L15)     

TRANSPARENCY IN MARKETS FOR EXPERIENCE GOODS: EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE

We propose an experimental design to investigate the role of information disclosure in the market for an experience good. The market is served by a duopoly of firms that choose both the quality and the price of their product. Consumers differ in their taste for quality and choose from which firm to buy. We compare four different treatments in which we vary the degree to which consumers are informed about quality. Contrary to theoretical predictions, firms do not differentiate quality under full information. Rather, both tend to offer products of similar, high quality, entailing more intense price competition than predicted by theory. Under no information, we observe a “lemons” outcome where quality is low. At the same time, firms manage to maintain prices substantially above marginal cost. In two intermediate treatments, quality is significantly higher than the no‐information level, and there is evidence that prices become better predictors of quality. Taken together these findings suggest that information disclosure is a more effective tool to raise welfare and consumer surplus than theory would lead one to expect. (JEL L15, C91, D82)     

Reintegration upon return: insights from Ecuadorian returnees from Spain

Using the ECM2 survey data on Ecuadorian migrants returning from Spain, we investigate the determinants of reintegration upon return. We study how the migration experience, but also the before‐ and after‐migration characteristics, correlate with migrants’ outcomes upon return. We adopt a broad conception of reintegration, considering jointly labour market‐related outcomes that proxy for structural reintegration and subjective indicators that provide insights on sociocultural reintegration. The determinants of these two types of outcomes appear to be different: reintegration indeed encompasses multiple dimensions which cannot be captured by a single indicator. Our results suggest that return assistance programmes’ efficiency in helping reintegration could be improved by (I) targeting, ex‐ante, returnees who plan to launch their own business, and, ex‐post, the most vulnerable workers (women, older returnees, unemployed), and (ii) facilitating the labour market integration of foreign‐educated returnees. They also call for further research to better understand the consequences of these programmes.     

MARKET STRUCTURE AND MEDIA DIVERSITY

We estimate a mixed logit model of the demand for local news service. Results provide evidence that suggest the representative consumer values more diverse news, more coverage of multicultural issues, and more information on community news, and has a distaste for advertising. Demand estimates are used to calculate the impact on consumer welfare from a marginal decrease in the number of independent television stations that lowers the amount of diversity, multiculturalism, community news, and advertising. Consumer welfare decreases, but the losses are smaller in large markets. For example, small‐market consumers lose $45 million annually while large‐market consumers lose $13 million. (JEL C9, C25, L13, L82, L96)     

ENVIRONMENTALISM,STIMULUS, AND INEQUALITY REDUCTION THROUGH INDUSTRIAL POLICY: DID CASH FOR CLUNKERS ACHIEVE THE TRIFECTA?

The 2009 American Cash for Clunkers program, which subsidized consumers who scrapped old vehicles and purchased new vehicles, was promoted by appealing to multiple constituencies. We evaluate the policy and alternatives according to its stated goals: emissions reductions, economic stimulus, and reducing inequality. We calibrate a dynamic partial equilibrium portfolio model to match consumer expenditure data from 1998 to 2011 focusing on heterogeneity across cars and trucks. We find the program generated $0.17 in environmental benefits, $0.28 in consumer surplus, and $0.31 in net discounted additional spending per subsidy dollar. Since subsidies largely went to middle-income infra-marginal consumers, the program exacerbated consumption inequality. We evaluate alternative policy designs and find no policy which simultaneously improves all outcomes. (JEL H23, L52, L92, D63)     

Union Dissolution and Mobility: Who Moves From the Family Home After Separation?

We investigate which partner of a 2‐gender couple moves out after separation. We test hypotheses on the impact of differences between the partners in the costs of moving out and resources, using data from the Divorce in the Netherlands survey (N = 1,537 ex‐couples who separated between 1972 and 1998). Ex‐partners initiating the separation were more likely to leave, as were those for whom a new partnership was a reason for the separation. An ex‐partner with custody of children was less likely to leave, as was an ex‐partner with more resources. A woman was less likely to leave when the joint children no longer lived at home or when the partnership had been longer lasting.     

BILATERAL OLIGOPOLY IN POLLUTION PERMIT MARKETS: EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE

We experimentally investigate behavior in a bilateral oligopoly using a supply function equilibria model discussed by Klemperer and Meyer (1989), Hendricks and McAfee (2010), and Malueg and Yates (2009). We focus on the role that market size and the degree of firm heterogeneity have on the market equilibrium. Our results indicate that subjects within the experiment recognize the strategic incentives in a bilateral oligopoly, but they do not exploit these incentives to the exact magnitude predicted by theory. We find weaker support for predicted market outcomes, as market efficiency does not depend on market size, and in some cases buyers or sellers are more successful at extracting the rents from the market. (JEL L13, Q5, C9)     

THE IMPACT OF A PUBLIC OPTION IN THE U.S. HEALTH INSURANCE MARKET

We develop a game‐theoretical framework to examine the implications of the introduction of a nonprofit “public option” in the U.S. health insurance market. In this model, heterogeneous consumers have to choose between two competing insurance plans. One plan is offered by a profit‐maximizing private insurer; the other by social‐welfare‐maximizing public option. In equilibrium, the distinct objectives of the two insurers induce adverse selection in consumer choice: the public option covers the less healthy consumers, yielding the more profitable segment of market to the private insurer. However, our empirical results suggest that both insurers will capture significant parts of the health insurance market. (JEL I11, L10, L21, L32)     

BEHAVIORAL PATTERNS IN SOCIAL NETWORKS

In this article, we focus on the analysis of individual decision‐making for the formation of social networks, using experimentally generated data. We analyze the determinants of the individual demand for links under the assumption of agents' static expectations and identify patterns of behavior that correspond to three specific objectives: players propose links so as to maximize expected profits (myopic best response strategy); players attempt to establish the largest number of direct links (reciprocator strategy); and players maximize expected profits per direct link (opportunistic strategy). These strategies explain approximately 74% of the observed choices. We demonstrate that they are deliberately adopted and, by means of a finite mixture model, well identified and separated in our sample. (JEL C33, C35, C90, D85)     

A DYNAMIC EXPLANATION OF THE WILLINGNESS TO PAY AND WILLINGNESS TO ACCEPT DISPARITY

Recent evidence from laboratory experiments suggests that important disparities exist between willingness to pay (WTP) and compensation demanded for the same good. Because a fundamental postulate in neoclassical theory is that with small income effects and many available substitutes, the willingness to accept (WTA) and WTP measures of value for a commodity should be roughly equivalent, this finding has vast implications in both a positive and normative sense. This study advances, and experimentally tests, a new explanation of the WTP/WTA disparity—a dynamic theory based on the presence of commitment costs. Although to date neoclassical models have not explained the observed data patterns well, we find that the commitment cost theory combined with a simple behavioral anomaly is able to lend insights into the causes and severity of the WTA/WTP disparity. Furthermore, we find that market experience attenuates the behavioral anomaly, consistent with the notion that no value disparity exists for agents with sufficient market experience. (JEL Q21, Q26)     

Health and the household

We underscore the close link between the economics of the household and health economics in a framework in which consumers produce their fundamental objects of choice. Health is produced with inputs of market goods and services and the own time of the consumer. Health is demanded not only because it is an argument in the utility function but also because it determines the amount of time available for market and nonmarket production. The latter motive points to health capital as one component of the stock of human capital. The economics of the household has much to say about the determinants of investment in this type of capital. The five health economics papers in this issue of Review of Economics of the Household are connected by an emphasis on the role of time in the production of two aspects of health: obesity and the general health of elderly persons.