CONSUMERS ARE NOT RICARDIAN: EVIDENCE FROM NINETEEN COUNTRIES

I develop a model which nests both Ricardian equivalence and an alternative non-Ricardian theory. The alternative is a stochastic variant of Blanchard's [1985] model, and its empirical implications are derived. I then test Ricardian equivalence against this alternative using data from nineteen countries. Ricardian equivalence is resoundingly rejected. Moreover, the estimated deviation from Ricardian equivalence is roughly what one would expect if households faced perfect insurance markets and did no have altruistic bequest motives. For many purposes, however, the estimated deviation from Ricardian equivalence has no practical import.     

WHY DO PEOPLE USE DEBIT CARDS: EVIDENCE FROM CHECKING ACCOUNTS

Debit cards are the fastest growing consumer payment method despite being more expensive and less versatile than credit cards. In this paper, we investigate some of the oft cited explanations for debit card use. Checking account data shows that debit card use is correlated with age, pay frequency, overdrafting, and ATM use, but not income, gender, crime, or expenditure. The data contain some signs that debit cards might be used as a method of spending restraint. (JEL D14, G21, L14)     

THE IMPACT OF HIGH-TECH CAPITAL ON PRODUCTIVITY: EVIDENCE FROM AUSTRALIA

This article examines the relationship between high-tech capital use and productivity. Using Australian data, some evidence is found of a positive relationship between high-tech capital use and productivity in the market sector, but there is much less evidence of excess returns. These results are robust to the use of a variety of different measures of high-tech capital. At the industry level however, the relationship is significant and positive for only some industries. This suggests that the benefits of investment in high-tech capital are not spread evenly across the economy. (JEL O3 )     

NATURAL DISASTERS AS CREATIVE DESTRUCTION? EVIDENCE FROM DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Recent studies found a robust positive correlation between the frequency of natural disasters and the long-run economic growth after conditioning for other determinants. This result is interpreted as evidence that disasters provide opportunities to update the capital stock and adopt new technologies, thus acting as some type of Schumpeterian creative destruction. The results of cross-country and panel data regressions indicate that the degree of catastrophic risk tends to have a negative effect on the volume of knowledge spillovers between industrialized and developing countries. Only countries with relatively high levels of development benefit from capital upgrading through trade after a natural catastrophe . ( JEL O13, O30, F18)     

FORECASTING WITH SOCIAL MEDIA: EVIDENCE FROM TWEETS ON SOCCER MATCHES

Social media is now used as a forecasting tool by a variety of firms and agencies. But how useful are such data in forecasting outcomes? Can social media add any information to that produced by a prediction/betting market? We source 13.8 million posts from Twitter, and combine them with contemporaneous Betfair betting prices, to forecast the outcomes of English Premier League soccer matches as they unfold. Using a microblogging dictionary to analyze the content of Tweets, we find that the aggregate tone of Tweets contains significant information not in betting prices, particularly in the immediate aftermath of goals and red cards. (JEL G14, G17)     

PRODUCTIVITY EFFECTS OF PUBLIC CAPITAL MAINTENANCE: EVIDENCE FROM U.S. STATES

This article assesses the productivity effects of infrastructure operation and maintenance (O&M) spending by state and local governments in the 48 contiguous U.S. states over the period 1978–2000. We explicitly account for transboundary spillovers of capital and O&M spending and follow a semiparametric methodology that allows us to estimate state‐specific output elasticities. We find strong evidence that in all 48 states the cross‐state spillover effects of O&M outlays on productivity exceed their within‐state impacts and are substantially higher than the spillover effects of capital expenditure. (JEL C14, E22, E62, H76, O11, O47, R11)     

THE INFLUENCE OF SOCIAL FORCES: EVIDENCE FROM THE BEHAVIOR OF FOOTBALL REFEREES

Analyzing the neutrality of referees during 12 German premier league (1. Bundesliga) soccer seasons, this paper documents evidence that social forces influence agents’ decisions. Referees, who are appointed to be impartial, tend to favor the home team by systematically awarding more stoppage time in close matches in which the home team is behind. They also favor the home team in decisions to award goals and penalty kicks. Crowd composition affects the size and the direction of the bias, and the crowd’s proximity to the field is related to the quality of refereeing. (JEL J00)     

SENTIMENT BIAS AND ASSET PRICES: EVIDENCE FROM SPORTS BETTING MARKETS AND SOCIAL MEDIA

Previous research using attendance‐based proxies for sentiment bias in sports betting markets confirmed the presence of investor sentiment in these markets. We use data from social media (Facebook “Likes”) to proxy for sentiment bias and analyze variation in bookmakers' prices investor sentiment. Based on betting data from seven professional sports leagues in Europe and North America, we find evidence that bookmakers increase prices for bets on teams with relatively more Facebook “Likes,” indicating the presence of price‐insensitive investors with sentiment bias. These price changes do not affect informational efficiency in this market. (JEL L81, G14)     

THE DURABILITY OF HUMAN CAPITAL: SOME NEW EVIDENCE

This paper analyzes the effect of chronological aging, experience, job search, change of job and/or employer, and formal training on the wage growth of a sample of young men. Following the human capital literature, wage growth directly corresponds to human capital and the analysis allows for the assessment of the durability or rate of depreciation of human capital if further investments are not made. The findings suggest that human capital is not very durable, contrary to some previous estimates given in the literature.     

LAWYERS IN VENTURE CAPITAL CONTRACTING: THEORY AND EVIDENCE

Real‐world financial contracts are sometimes so complex that it can be difficult to understand their exact payoff consequences. We develop and test a theoretical model of a venture capitalist (VC) negotiating with an entrepreneur who may overweigh or underweigh the payoff consequences of contractual downside protection (DP). A lawyer with expertise in venture capital can inform the entrepreneur about these consequences, but less expert (but otherwise high quality) lawyers cannot. We determine how a VC's decision to include DP is affected by the expected quality of the entrepreneur's project, the entrepreneur's experience, and the VC expertise of his/her legal counsel. We show that the VC's incentive to include unnecessary DP declines in expected project quality. Indeed, for inexperienced entrepreneurs involved with high‐quality projects, VCs prefer that the entrepreneur's counsel has VC expertise. This implies that, when negotiating with inexperienced entrepreneurs, VCs who invest in high‐quality companies should be more likely to negotiate with entrepreneurs who employ lawyers with VC expertise. We document broad empirical support for the model, and provide evidence against competing explanations. (JEL L24, G24, K12, L14, L24)     

SOCIAL CHANGES IN IMPRESSIONABLE YEARS AND ADULT POLITICAL ATTITUDES: EVIDENCE FROM JEWISH EXPULSIONS IN NAZI GERMANY

This study provides evidence that individuals who grew up during the 1930's Jewish expulsions are less likely to show interest and participate in politics. The estimates imply that, at the mean, individuals in their impressionable ages at the time of the expulsions are about 13% less likely to be interested in politics and 26% less likely to participate in politics. These results are not found for individuals who were older at the time of the expulsions nor for those growing up during world War (WWII). Results are robust to fixed region and birth-year characteristics, various definitions of impressionable ages, and composition bias induced by differential migration and mortality rates across regions and cohorts. The estimates are also not driven by other regional differences in 1930's political participation, party support, Catholic share, exposure and destruction during WWII, urbanization, and other regional characteristics. We provide evidence that the adverse effects on political attitudes we find are explained by a model of political participation emphasizing the role of civic skills and socioeconomic status acquired at younger ages. Exposure to the expulsions when young is associated with lower adult volunteerism, trust, church attendance, and socioeconomic status. (JEL O12, D72, D74, J15)     

IMPORTED CAPITAL INPUT,ABSORPTIVE CAPACITY,AND FIRM PERFORMANCE: EVIDENCE FROM FIRM‐LEVEL DATA

Importing capital inputs has been recognized as a critical channel for technology transfer across countries. We examine whether and to what extent the productive impact of imported capital varies with firms' abilities to absorb new technologies using ordinary least squares, instrumental variable, and threshold regression estimators. We find that firms with higher absorptive capacity gain significantly more from importing foreign capital. Our results also suggest a threshold for such benefits. Furthermore, the productive contribution of skilled labor is significantly higher in firms that import foreign capital. Developing policies to augment absorptive capacity will help firms in developing countries to realize benefits associated with imported capital. (JEL F14, D24, L24, O33)     

LIMITS OF THE EFFECT OF SOCIAL INFORMATION ON THE VOLUNTARY PROVISION OF PUBLIC GOODS: EVIDENCE FROM FIELD EXPERIMENTS

Previous work has demonstrated the effect of social information in the voluntary provision of public goods in the field. In this article, we demonstrate the boundary conditions of the effect. We show that when social information is too extreme, it ceases to influence individual contributions. The results highlight a natural limitation of the social information effect, and provide a characterization of the most effective levels for an organization to use. (JEL M31, H41, D64)     

SOCIAL PREFERENCES AND TAX POLICY DESIGN: SOME EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE

This article reports the results of a set of experiments designed to examine whether a taste for fairness affects people's preferred tax structure. Using the Fehr and Schmidt model, we devise a simple test for the presence of social preferences in voting for alternative tax structures. The experimental results show that individuals demonstrate concern for their own payoff and inequality aversion in choosing between alternative tax structures. However, concern for redistribution decreases as the deadweight loss from progressive taxation increases. Our findings have important implications for tax policy design. ( JEL C92, D63, H21, H23)     

ADOLESCENTS AS A SOURCE OF SOCIAL CONTROL: THE UTILITY OF ADOLESCENT SOCIAL CAPITAL FOR REDUCING VIOLENT DELINQUENCY

Parental social capital has emerged as an important social control component of adolescent delinquency. However, for severe forms of delinquency, such as violence, adolescent social capital is as likely a source of social control as adult social capital. This study uses the first two waves of the Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health to show that parental social capital has little effect on violence once parental and family characteristics are controlled. However, both neighborhood and school adolescent social capital reduce adolescents' violent behavior in spite of strong controls of peer fighting, prior violent offending, and neighborhood-level variables.     

INTERRACIAL WORKPLACE COOPERATION: EVIDENCE FROM THE NBA

Using data from the National Basketball Association (NBA), we examine whether patterns of workplace cooperation occur disproportionately among workers of the same race. We find that, holding constant the composition of teammates on the floor, basketball players are no more likely to complete an assist to a player of the same race than a player of a different race. Our confidence interval allows us to reject even small amounts of same‐race bias in passing patterns. We find some evidence of own‐race bias in situations where the outcome of a particular play is less important. Our findings suggest that high levels of interracial cooperation can occur in a setting where workers are operating in a highly visible setting with strong incentives to behave efficiently. (JEL J15, J71, L23)     

PEER PRESSURE: EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE FROM RESTROOM BEHAVIOR

We provide experimental evidence on the effect of peer pressure on individual behavior. Specifically, we study the effect of being exposed to an observer in a public restroom on handwashing and urinal flushing behavior. Our estimates show that being exposed to an observer increases the probability of handwashing by 13 percentage points and the probability of urinal flushing by 15 percentage points. Given that handwashing and urinal flushing have social benefits that exceed individual benefits, our findings provide support for peer pressure as an additional way of addressing the social suboptimality arising from externalities. (JEL C91, C93)     

COMPARING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF REGULATION AND PRO‐SOCIAL EMOTIONS TO ENHANCE COOPERATION: EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE FROM FISHING COMMUNITIES IN COLOMBIA

This paper presents the results from a series of framed field experiments conducted in fishing communities off the Caribbean coast of Colombia. The goal is to investigate the relative effectiveness of exogenous regulatory pressure and pro‐social emotions in promoting cooperative behavior in a public goods context. The random public revelation of an individual's contribution and its consequences for the rest of the group leads to significantly higher public good contributions and social welfare than regulatory pressure, even under regulations that are designed to motivate fully efficient contributions. (JEL C93, H41, Q20, Q28)     

EXTREME TEMPERATURE AND EXTREME VIOLENCE: EVIDENCE FROM RUSSIA

We study the relationship between extreme temperatures and violent mortality, employing novel regional panel data from Russia. We find that extremely hot temperatures increase violent mortality, while extremely cold temperatures have no effect. The impact of hot temperature on violence is unequal across gender and age groups, rises noticeably during weekends, and leads to considerable social costs. Our findings also suggest that better job opportunities and lower vodka consumption may decrease this impact. The results underscore that economic policies need to target vulnerable population groups to mitigate the adverse impact of extreme temperatures. (JEL Q54, I14, K42)     

THE IMPACT OF LABOR CONTRACTS: EVIDENCE FROM BRAZIL

The conventional Keynesian model suggests that frictions created by nominal wage contracts generate a positive relationship between inflation and output. On the other hand, the New Classical/Real Business Cycle theory claims that firms and workers base their employment behavior, and hence output, on the marginal product of labor ignoring the efficiencies of fixed nominal wage contracts. Using Brazilian data, where nominal wages were indexed by law, tests show that fixed nominal wage contracts insignificantly affected output. Thus, the data support the view that fixed nominal wages play an insignificant role in determining the evolution of output. ( JEL E31)