The macroeconomic impact of reforming a PAYG system: The Portuguese case

Abstract   The article analyses the impact of various types of reform options on social security pension system financial sustainability and on a range of macroeconomic variables. The HERPOR model is used to consider the likely effects of parametric reforms of the existing pay-as-you-go system, as well as those of a systemic reform. The article concludes that the former are sufficient to ensure financial sustainability, although they should be accompanied by employment implementation measures. The article concludes that a fully pre-funded system does not seem to be a viable option for policy-makers in the redesigning of social security pension systems, due to the high transition costs involved.     

A macro‐financial analysis of pension system reforms in emerging Europe: The performance of IRAs and policy lessons for Serbia

The article explores the initial macro‐financial performance of partial pension system “privatizations”— involving privately‐managed individual retirement savings accounts (IRAs) — undertaken in many emerging European countries. Using empirical data for a period of close to a decade, the evidence shows that returns on privately‐managed IRAs have been below the implicit rate of return of public pay‐as‐you‐go (PAYG) systems. High operating costs and undeveloped capital markets are identified as major contributing factors to the failure of privately‐managed IRAs to meet reform expectations. In light of empirical evidence, Serbia is advised to focus on parametric PAYG reforms and to avoid reforms that involve the partial “privatization” of the pension system.     

Improving gender outcomes in social security retirement systems

Assessing whether retirement systems meet their varying objectives requires analysing outcomes across different categories of beneficiaries with different working, financial, demographic, and family situations. Policymakers should therefore assess systems on the distribution of outcomes rather than average outcomes. Much has been written about the gender inequalities inherent in labour markets and how these are reflected and reproduced in pension systems, and there is growing evidence that recent reforms have exacerbated these trends. Recent research has turned to the policy measures available to policymakers to forestall or reverse these trends, but this literature tends to overlook important administrative measures that have the potential to reduce inequalities in access that could improve pension outcomes for women within the current policy framework. This paper examines the main issues surrounding gender inequality in retirement outcomes; explores the implications of recent reform trends in light of the differential outcomes for women, including policy options to mitigate the negative impacts; and concludes with a review of key administrative measures, including streamlining affiliation procedures, improving information, and simplifying payment of contributions and receipt of benefits and better compliance of employers.     

Working life and retirement pensions in Spain: The simulated impact of a parametric reform

This article aims to offer an ex ante evaluation of the impact of a parametric reform of the Spanish pension system that would involve increasing the reference period used to calculate benefits, an approach proposed many times by various actors in the socio‐economic field. Such gradual change may be categorized as a non‐structural reform of the pension system. This contrasts with reforms of a structural nature that have been very popular in Latin America and elsewhere, involving the creation of defined contribution individual account schemes. As regards the parametric reform proposed in this article, the main findings indicate that it would have a small but negative impact on pension income for pensioners and would reduce income distribution.     

The performance of social security contributory and tax‐financed pensions in Central America,and the effects of the global crisis

Over the last 30 years, Latin America has pioneered structural pension reforms. This article focuses on a representative regional sample of seven Central American countries with diverse levels of development (Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama) studying contributory and tax‐financed pensions as well as recent pension reforms. It comparatively assesses system performance regarding five social security principles: unity; universal coverage; adequacy of benefits; equal treatment, solidarity and gender equality; and financial sustainability. It also evaluates the impact of the world crisis on these pension systems, highlighting the differences between public and private pensions, and extracts lessons and suggests policies for the future.     

Pension Reforms in Europe and Life-course Politics

In recent years, somewhat drastic pension reforms have taken place in all European countries. The pension systems developed in the last century are no longer considered to be suited to the changing demographic constellations in European countries, and the financial sustainability of these systems is under threat. Moreover, the changing political and economic set‐up in European countries is also used to justify reforming the different pension systems. Different reasons can be given to explain the various pension reform measures without, however, there being any integrated coherence. We suggest that a politics of social policy, and of pension policy in particular, based on a life‐course perspective, facilitates the understanding of the whole range of pension reform measures. In the past, the elaborated pension systems were attuned to a normative standard biography. A new standard biography, with different phases and more transitions and combinations, enables one to understand the variety of the ongoing pension reform measures. Such a life‐course perspective integrates sequences of learning, working and caring considered necessary for the polity. In other words, it is based on a conception of human potential, and it integrates, to some extent, the previously separate domains of labour market policy, education policy, care policy and pension policy. However, recent theoretical and empirical studies of the life course lead to a critical evaluation of the new standard biography, with the conclusion that the new standard is one‐sided and scientifically unsound, entailing challenges for social policy.     

Reforming pensions: Principles, analytical errors and policy directions

This article, sets out a series of principles for pension design rooted in economic theory: pension systems have multiple objectives, analysis should consider the pension system as a whole, analysis should be framed in a second-best context, different systems share risks differently, and systems have different effects by generation and by gender. That discussion is reinforced by identification of a series of widespread analytical errors — errors that appear in World Bank work, but by no means only in World Bank work: tunnel vision, improper use of first-best analysis, improper use of steady-state analysis, incomplete analysis of implicit pension debt, incomplete analysis of the impact of funding (including excessive focus on financial flows, failure to consider how funding is generated, and improper focus on the type of asset in trust funds), and ignoring distributional effects. The second part of the article considers implications for policy: there is no single best pension design, earlier retirement does little or nothing to reduce unemployment, unsustainable pension promises need to be addressed directly, a move from pay-as-you-go towards funding in a mandatory system may or may not be welfare improving, and implementation matters — policy design that exceeds a country's capacity to implement it is bad policy design. We illustrate the ranges of designs of pension systems that fit the fiscal and institutional capacity constraints typical at different levels of economic development. The potential gains from simplicity imply that a country capable of implementing an administratively demanding plan does not necessarily gain from doing so. New Zealand has a simple pension system through choice, not constraint.     

Can complementary pension plans help improve retirement income in the Dominican Republic?

In the 1990s, following the earlier example of Chile, pension system reforms were implemented in a number of Latin American and other countries. These reforms focused on introducing models of pension provision that were fully‐funded and privately managed. Although aspects of these reforms have been positive, for many persons covered by these systems retirement income is not adequate. The development of occupational pension plans may offer an alternative, complementary mechanism to help improve pension adequacy. This article discusses different complementary pension plan models and examines the case of the Dominican Republic. It argues that complementary occupational pension plans may be a viable policy option for this developing country.     

Pension system generosity and reform in Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia

Pension systems in the North African countries of Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia are facing a certain number of difficulties. Presenting the characteristics and organizational structure of each, this article identifies the specificities of, as well as the common problems confronting, these countries' pension systems. With reference to authorizing legislation and case simulations, the high level of generosity of the different pension systems is discussed and an analysis presented. In a context of population ageing, it is argued that current levels of generosity cannot be maintained; reform is needed. The article discusses different reform options, the challenges of implementation and the possible macroeconomic impacts of reform.     

The 2022 Greek pension reform: The rebirth of carve-out privatization in Eastern Europe

After a decade of unprecedented austerity, Greece abruptly changed the course of pension consolidation in 2022 and implemented the controversial carve-out pension funding approach, whereby a portion of existing pay-as-you-go (PAYG) contributions are diverted to fund individual pension savings, thus undermining the financing of existing PAYG pensions. Although inspired by the World Bank’s 1994 pension privatization blueprint, the Greek 2022 reform features a major policy shift by entrusting the management of individual pension savings to a dedicated government body, ostensibly to try to remedy inherent market failures in private pension provision. Like earlier reforms in Eastern Europe, the multi-decade transition costs of carve-out funding have been vastly underestimated in Greece, which will give rise to fiscal distress in the coming years when annual transition costs become sizeable and favourable international financing terms start to change. Unless firm political commitment is established to implement the measures necessary to finance the transition costs, Greece may have to resort to reform reversals similar to those already implemented across Eastern Europe.     

Pension reform, the stock market, capital formation and economic growth: A critical commentary on the World Bank's proposals

Proposing far-reaching reforms to pension systems, the World Bank has recently suggested that the existing pay-as-you-go systems in many rich as well as poor countries should be replaced by fully funded, mandatory, preferably private pensions, as the main pillars of the new system. It argues that these reforms will not only benefit pensioners but also enhance savings, and promote capital formation and economic development. This paper provides a critical examination of the Bank's theses and concludes that it has adopted a one-sided view of the relationships between the key critical variables. The proposed reform may therefore neither protect the old nor achieve faster economic growth.     

Developing countries and systemic pension reforms: Reflections on some emerging problems

Since 1981 close to forty countries have introduced systemic pension reforms that have replaced all or part of prior pay‐as‐you‐go (PAYG) schemes with privately managed funded defined contribution (FDC) pillars or systems. However, over the past decade about half of these countries have subsequently cutback on, or entirely eliminated, these FDC schemes. In this article we explore some of the reasons why this reversal is often taking place in developing countries. As part of our analysis we propose a new pension reform typology that goes beyond the commonly used dichotomy between PAYG and pension privatization. We identify and discuss four factors that are of particular relevance to those seeking to understand the pension policy reversals that have been taking place in many developing countries: low pension coverage and incentive incompatibility, triple burden costs, tradeoffs between pension reforms and social pensions, and difficulties with annuitization.     

Adjustment mechanisms and intergenerational actuarial neutrality in pension reforms

In the context of the reform of defined benefit pension systems under population ageing, we focus on the introduction of automatic adjustment mechanisms linked to life expectancy. Our goal is to establish a relationship between changes in the key parameters of the pension system and changes in life expectancy, applying the principle of intergenerational actuarial neutrality. For a defined benefit pension scheme, we first obtain the fundamental adjustment equation and then, for particular cases, we derive different designs of automatic adjustment mechanisms depending on the involved parameter. We include a numerical application only for illustrative purposes.     

Evaluating the Possible Impact of Pension Reforms on Elderly Poverty in Europe

Since the 1990s, reforms have changed substantially both the nature of state pension provision and the level of generosity. This article tries to assess the impact of these changes using estimates of pension wealth for a number of hypothetical cases. By focusing on all prospective pension transfers rather than just those at the point of retirement, this approach can provide additional insights, especially on the impact of changes in benefit indexation. These estimates corroborate existing evidence that reforms have decreased generosity significantly. Moves to link benefits to contributions have made systems less progressive, raising adequacy concerns for certain groups. The reforms have, in particular, strengthened the need of ensuring better access to labour markets, of having in place adequate crediting arrangements and minimum pensions.     

Pension reform in Sweden

Pension reform has been placed on the political agenda in many countries. The Swedish parliament has decided to make significant changes in the pension system. This article presents the Swedish pension reform, which goes further than the changes in other European countries. According to the Swedish pension reform, there will be a guaranteed pension that redistributes life-cycle incomes from rich to poor and an income-related actuarial pension without any intra- and intergenerational redistributive effects (with a few exceptions). The idea is to have an actuarial contribution-defined pension within a pay-as-you-go system.     

Social Dialogue: A Potential "Highroad" to Policies Addressing Ageing in The EU Member States

The impact of demographic ageing on the sustainability of pensions has become the focus of heated debate in Europe, as governments try to reform their welfare systems. Among the most vocal opponents of the reforms are employers' organizations and managements, trade unions and individual workers. The article looks at the issues at stake and the relevance of social dialogue, despite difficulties, for reaching consensus among all stakeholders on acceptable labour market and pension reforms. These have to be comprehensive and free from ideological a priori assumptions. Specific examples of available options are mentioned, including Finland, Denmark, Spain and the United Kingdom.     

Notional defined contribution pensions with public reserve funds in ageing economies: An application to Japan

Several developed and developing countries have recently adopted a notional defined contribution (NDC) approach to old‐age pension reform. The NDC is essentially a non‐pre‐funded defined contribution retirement system, in which contributions are credited with a “rate of return” related to aggregate payroll growth, and individual account accruals are maintained in a book‐keeping system. Payouts are annuitized based on the expected mortality of each succeeding retiring cohort. NDC plans may be identified with appropriately calibrated Pay‐As‐You‐Go plans in demographic equilibrium, but the two paradigms diverge when demographic shift is introduced. This paper investigates the key actuarial and economic implications of alternative NDC rules, with a particular focus on Japan, the world's most rapidly ageing economy. We examine the potential role for pension reserves in transitioning to an NDC system, and we show these can be used to smooth the impact of demographic transition to an older society. Finally, we show that countries such as Japan could elect to use pension reserves accumulated in the past to facilitate the transition to an NDC system.     

Chile and beyond: The second-generation pension reforms in Latin America

In the early 1990s, pension reforms leading to substantial changes in the organization and financing of old age security were undertaken in Argentina, Colombia and Peru. Implemented ten years after the pioneer reforms in Chile, they have taken advantage of the experiences and lessons of the Chilean case; at the same time, the second-generation reforms clearly demonstrate the restrictions policy makers are being faced with in a democratic political context. This paper examines the recent pension reform experiences in Latin America and discusses their implications for a modified concept of old age security.     

Social Security at The Crossroads: Toward Effective Pension Reform in Latin America

Individual pension savings accounts in Latin America promised to improve compliance and raise benefits in a cost‐effective manner, while at the same time raising savings rates, which would in turn promote economic growth. A review of the evolution of pension reform in Latin America shows results to have been mixed. Analyses of the recent reforms generally fail to consider the extent to which the success or failure of pension systems is driven by exogenous factors, including macroeconomic and labour market conditions, and institutions. A number of recent studies have issued a reassessment of the region's reforms that stresses the importance of a basic guaranteed pension benefit and recognizes that a range of alternatives are viable in the region. Pension systems based on individual accounts are undergoing a thorough reevaluation.