A prior for the variance in hierarchical models

The choice of prior distributions for the variances can be important and quite difficult in Bayesian hierarchical and variance component models. For situations where little prior information is available, a ‘nonin-formative’ type prior is usually chosen. ‘Noninformative’ priors have been discussed by many authors and used in many contexts. However, care must be taken using these prior distributions as many are improper and thus, can lead to improper posterior distributions. Additionally, in small samples, these priors can be ‘informative’. In this paper, we investigate a proper ‘vague’ prior, the uniform shrinkage prior (Strawder-man 1971; Christiansen & Morris 1997). We discuss its properties and show how posterior distributions for common hierarchical models using this prior lead to proper posterior distributions. We also illustrate the attractive frequentist properties of this prior for a normal hierarchical model including testing and estimation. To conclude, we generalize this prior to the multivariate situation of a covariance matrix.     

Bayes estimators in the presence of a guess value

The paper deals with the problem of parameter estimation in the presence of a guess value and attempts to justify the use of Bayes estimators as an alternative to ordinary shrinkage estimators. Finally, certain Bayes estimators of exponential parameters are obtained under type II censoring, and these are compared with the corresponding MLEs and ordinary shrinkage estimators using a Monte Carlo study.     

Estimation of covariance matrices based on hierarchical inverse-Wishart priors

This paper focuses on Bayesian shrinkage methods for covariance matrix estimation. We examine posterior properties and frequentist risks of Bayesian estimators based on new hierarchical inverse-Wishart priors. More precisely, we give the conditions for the existence of the posterior distributions. Advantages in terms of numerical simulations of posteriors are shown. A simulation study illustrates the performance of the estimation procedures under three loss functions for relevant sample sizes and various covariance structures.     

Improved robust Bayes estimators of the error variance in linear models

We consider the problem of estimating the error variance in a general linear model when the error distribution is assumed to be spherically symmetric, but not necessary Gaussian. In particular we study the case of a scale mixture of Gaussians including the particularly important case of the multivariate-t distribution. Under Stein's loss, we construct a class of estimators that improve on the usual best unbiased (and best equivariant) estimator. Our class has the interesting double robustness property of being simultaneously generalized Bayes (for the same generalized prior) and minimax over the entire class of scale mixture of Gaussian distributions.     

Maximum likelihood estimators in finite mixture models with censored data

The consistency of estimators in finite mixture models has been discussed under the topology of the quotient space obtained by collapsing the true parameter set into a single point. In this paper, we extend the results of Cheng and Liu (2001) to give conditions under which the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is strongly consistent in such a sense in finite mixture models with censored data. We also show that the fitted model tends to the true model under a weak condition as the sample size tends to infinity.     

Bayesian change-point problem using Bayes factor with hierarchical prior distribution

We consider the hierarchical Bayesian models of change-point problem in a sequence of random variables having either normal population or skew-normal population. Further, we consider the problem of detecting an influential point concerning change point using Bayes factors. Our proposed models are illustrated with the real data example, the annual flow volume data of Nile River at Aswan from 1871 to 1970. The result using our proposed models indicated the largest influential observation in the year 1888 among outliers. We have shown that it is useful to measure the influence of observations on Bayes factors. Here, we consider omitting single observation as well.     

Bayesian model selection in linear mixed effects models with autoregressive(p) errors using mixture priors

In this article, we apply the Bayesian approach to the linear mixed effect models with autoregressive(p) random errors under mixture priors obtained with the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. The mixture structure of a point mass and continuous distribution can help to select the variables in fixed and random effects models from the posterior sample generated using the MCMC method. Bayesian prediction of future observations is also one of the major concerns. To get the best model, we consider the commonly used highest posterior probability model and the median posterior probability model. As a result, both criteria tend to be needed to choose the best model from the entire simulation study. In terms of predictive accuracy, a real example confirms that the proposed method provides accurate results.     

Bayes and Empirical Bayes Inference in Changepoint Problems

ABSTRACT

In the case of the random design nonparametric regression, the double smoothing technique is applied to estimate the multivariate regression function. The proposed estimator has desirable properties in both the finite sample and the asymptotic cases. In the finite sample case, it has bounded conditional (and unconditional) bias and variance. On the other hand, in the asymptotic case, it has the same mean square error as the local linear estimator in Fan (Design-Adaptive Nonparametric Regression. Journal of the American Statistical Association 1992, 87, 998–1004; Local Linear Regression Smoothers and Their Minimax Efficiencies. Annals of Statistics 1993, 21, 196–216). Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed estimator is better than the local linear estimator, because it has a smaller sample mean integrated square error and gives smoother estimates.     

Adaptive power priors with empirical Bayes for clinical trials

Incorporating historical information into the design and analysis of a new clinical trial has been the subject of much discussion as a way to increase the feasibility of trials in situations where patients are difficult to recruit. The best method to include this data is not yet clear, especially in the case when few historical studies are available. This paper looks at the power prior technique afresh in a binomial setting and examines some previously unexamined properties, such as Box P values, bias, and coverage. Additionally, it proposes an empirical Bayes‐type approach to estimating the prior weight parameter by marginal likelihood. This estimate has advantages over previously criticised methods in that it varies commensurably with differences in the historical and current data and can choose weights near 1 when the data are similar enough. Fully Bayesian approaches are also considered. An analysis of the operating characteristics shows that the adaptive methods work well and that the various approaches have different strengths and weaknesses.     

Empirical Bayes estimates of finite mixture of negative binomial regression models and its application to highway safety

The empirical Bayes (EB) method is commonly used by transportation safety analysts for conducting different types of safety analyses, such as before–after studies and hotspot analyses. To date, most implementations of the EB method have been applied using a negative binomial (NB) model, as it can easily accommodate the overdispersion commonly observed in crash data. Recent studies have shown that a generalized finite mixture of NB models with K mixture components (GFMNB-K) can also be used to model crash data subjected to overdispersion and generally offers better statistical performance than the traditional NB model. So far, nobody has developed how the EB method could be used with finite mixtures of NB models. The main objective of this study is therefore to use a GFMNB-K model in the calculation of EB estimates. Specifically, GFMNB-K models with varying weight parameters are developed to analyze crash data from Indiana and Texas. The main finding shows that the rankings produced by the NB and GFMNB-2 models for hotspot identification are often quite different, and this was especially noticeable with the Texas dataset. Finally, a simulation study designed to examine which model formulation can better identify the hotspot is recommended as our future research.     

Empirical Bayes estimates for correlated hierarchical data with overdispersion

An extension of the generalized linear mixed model was constructed to simultaneously accommodate overdispersion and hierarchies present in longitudinal or clustered data. This so‐called combined model includes conjugate random effects at observation level for overdispersion and normal random effects at subject level to handle correlation, respectively. A variety of data types can be handled in this way, using different members of the exponential family. Both maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation for covariate effects and variance components were proposed. The focus of this paper is the development of an estimation procedure for the two sets of random effects. These are necessary when making predictions for future responses or their associated probabilities. Such (empirical) Bayes estimates will also be helpful in model diagnosis, both when checking the fit of the model as well as when investigating outlying observations. The proposed procedure is applied to three datasets of different outcome types. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Empirical bayes estimation in contingency tables

In the estimation of cell probabilities from a two–way contingency table, suppose that a priori the classification variables are believed independent. New empirical Bayes and Bayes estimators are proposed which shrink the observed proportions towards classical estimates under the model of independence. The estimators, based on a Dirichlet mixture class of priors, compare favorably to an estimator of Laird (1978) that is based on a normal prior on terms of a log–linear model. The methods are generalized to three–way tables.     

Objective priors for hypothesis testing in one-way random effects models

The Bayes factor is a key tool in hypothesis testing. Nevertheless, the important issue of which priors should be used to develop objective Bayes factors remains open. The authors consider this problem in the context of the one-way random effects model. They use concepts such as orthogonality, predictive matching and invariance to justify a specific form of the priors for common parameters and derive the intrinsic and divergence based prior for the new parameter. The authors show that both intrinsic priors or divergence-based priors produce consistent Bayes factors. They illustrate the methods and compare them with other proposals.     

Empirical likelihood‐based inference for genetic mixture models

The authors show how the genetic effect of a quantitative trait locus can be estimated by a nonparametric empirical likelihood method when the phenotype distributions are completely unspecified. They use an empirical likelihood ratio statistic for testing the genetic effect and obtaining confidence intervals. In addition to studying the asymptotic properties of these procedures, the authors present simulation results and illustrate their approach with a study on breast cancer resistance genes.     

Bayesian analysis in multivariate regression models with conjugate priors

In this paper, we consider the full rank multivariate regression model with matrix elliptically contoured distributed errors. We formulate a conjugate prior distribution for matrix elliptical models and derive the posterior distributions of mean and scale matrices. In the sequel, some characteristics of regression matrix parameters are also proposed.     

Comparison of testing procedures utilizing P-values and Bayes factors in some common situations

Bayesian alternatives to classical tests for several testing problems are considered. One-sided and two-sided sets of hypotheses are tested concerning an exponential parameter, a Binomial proportion, and a normal mean. Hierarchical Bayes and noninformative Bayes procedures are compared with the appropriate classical procedure, either the uniformly most powerful test or the likelihood ratio test, in the different situations. The hierarchical prior employed is the conjugate prior at the first stage with the mean being the test parameter and a noninformative prior at the second stage for the hyper parameter(s) of the first stage prior. Fair comparisons are attempted in which fair means the likelihood of making a type I error is approximately the same for the different testing procedures; once this condition is satisfied, the power of the different tests are compared, the larger the power, the better the test. This comparison is difficult in the two-sided case due to the unsurprising discrepancy between Bayesian and classical measures of evidence that have been discussed for years. The hierarchical Bayes tests appear to compete well with the typical classical test in the one-sided cases.     

Proper Bayes minimax estimators of the normal mean matrix with common unknown variances

This paper addresses the problem of estimating a matrix of the normal means, where the variances are unknown but common. The approach to this problem is provided by a hierarchical Bayes modeling for which the first stage prior for the means is matrix-variate normal distribution with mean zero matrix and a covariance structure and the second stage prior for the covariance is similar to Jeffreys’ rule. The resulting hierarchical Bayes estimators relative to the quadratic loss function belong to a class of matricial shrinkage estimators. Certain conditions are obtained for admissibility and minimaxity of the hierarchical Bayes estimators.     

Conservative prior distributions for variance parameters in hierarchical models

Bayesian hierarchical models typically involve specifying prior distributions for one or more variance components. This is rather removed from the observed data, so specification based on expert knowledge can be difficult. While there are suggestions for “default” priors in the literature, often a conditionally conjugate inverse‐gamma specification is used, despite documented drawbacks of this choice. The authors suggest “conservative” prior distributions for variance components, which deliberately give more weight to smaller values. These are appropriate for investigators who are skeptical about the presence of variability in the second‐stage parameters (random effects) and want to particularly guard against inferring more structure than is really present. The suggested priors readily adapt to various hierarchical modelling settings, such as fitting smooth curves, modelling spatial variation and combining data from multiple sites.     

Empirical bayes estimation of binomial parameter with symmetric priors

This paper deals with the problem of estimating the binomial parameter via the nonparametric empirical Bayes approach. This estimation problem has the feature that estimators which are asymptotically optimal in the usual empirical Bayes sense do not exist (Robbins (1958, 1964)), However, as pointed out by Liang (1934) and Gupta and Liang (1988), it is possible to construct asymptotically optimal empirical Bayes estimators if the unknown prior is symmetric about the point 1/2, In this paper, assuming symmetric priors a monotone empirical Bayes estimator is constructed by using the isotonic regression method. This estimator is asymptotically optimal in the usual empirical Bayes sense. The corresponding rate of convergence is investigated and shown to be of order n^-1, where n is the number of past observations at hand.