ON THE SEARCH FOR TALENT IN ACADEMIC LABOR MARKETS: EASILY OBSERVABLE LATER‐GRADUATE STUDY OUTCOMES AS PREDICTORS OF EARLY‐CAREER PUBLISHING,PLACEMENT, AND TENURE

Three easily observed later‐graduate study outcomes, working with a prominent advisor, publishing while in graduate school, and coauthoring with the advisor are demonstrated to be significant determinants of early‐career publishing success for a sample of nearly 3,000 Ph.D. recipients from more than 100 domestic programs between 1990 and 1993. Out‐of‐sample predictions for 681 Ph.D. recipients from the class of 1994 indicate that these easily observed later‐graduate study signals dramatically improve our ability to forecast which students become prolific and which students fail to publish more than one article. Analyzing initial domestic tenure‐track economics placements indicates that hiring departments placed far more emphasis on Ph.D. program pedigree, leading to an initial tenure rate of less than 50% but eventually nearly three‐fourths currently hold tenured positions in the United States. (JEL J24, J44)     

THE WELFARE IMPLICATIONS OF MORAL HAZARD AND ADVERSE SELECTION IN COMPETITIVE INSURANCE MARKETS

I model a competitive insurance market with both moral hazard and adverse selection, and analyze the effect on welfare when both problems are present simultaneously. An examination of the interaction between these two problems leads to two hypotheses. First, the nature of the equilibrium contracts is such that each problem partially offsets the welfare loss associated with the other. And second, the degree to which this occurs increases as agents become more heterogeneous. Simulation results overwhelmingly support both hypotheses.     

SENTIMENT BIAS AND ASSET PRICES: EVIDENCE FROM SPORTS BETTING MARKETS AND SOCIAL MEDIA

Previous research using attendance‐based proxies for sentiment bias in sports betting markets confirmed the presence of investor sentiment in these markets. We use data from social media (Facebook “Likes”) to proxy for sentiment bias and analyze variation in bookmakers' prices investor sentiment. Based on betting data from seven professional sports leagues in Europe and North America, we find evidence that bookmakers increase prices for bets on teams with relatively more Facebook “Likes,” indicating the presence of price‐insensitive investors with sentiment bias. These price changes do not affect informational efficiency in this market. (JEL L81, G14)     

COMPETITIVE BALANCE MEASURES IN SPORTS LEAGUES: THE EFFECTS OF VARIATION IN SEASON LENGTH

Appropriate measurement of competitive balance is central to the economic analysis of professional sports leagues. We examine the distributional properties of the ratio of standard deviations (RSD) of points percentages, the most widely used measure of competitive balance in the sports economics literature, in comparison with other standard‐deviation‐based measures. Simulation methods are used to evaluate the effects of changes in season length on the distributions of competitive balance measures for different distributions of the strengths of teams in a league. The popular RSD measure performs as expected only in cases of perfect balance; if there is imbalance in team strengths, its distribution is sensitive to changes in season length. It is therefore not recommended for comparisons of competitive balance for different sports leagues with different numbers of teams and/or games played. (JEL L83, D63, C63)     

INFORMATION AND SEARCH: AN ALTERNATIVE APPROACH TO THE THEORY OF MINIMUM WAGES

The peculiar character of the problem of a rational economic order is determined precisely by the fact that the knowledge of the circumstances of which we must make use never exists in a concentrated or integrated form but solely as the dispersed bits of incomplete and frequently contradictory knowledge which all the separate individuals possess.     

GENDER AND RACE PATTERNS IN THE PATHWAYS FROM SPORTS PARTICIPATION TO SELF-ESTEEM

Athletics is the most prominent extracurricular activity in U.S. secondary schools in terms of student participation and school budgets. The latter is often justified on the grounds that healthy bodies produce healthy minds, that school sports boost school spirit, and that participation in school-based sports increases students' self-esteem. In this article we examine the interrelationships among participation in a school-based sport and the benefits assumed to be associated with it. Specifically, we test a model that postulates that school spirit, operationalized as attachment to school, and healthy bodies, operationalized as a sense of physical well-being, mediate the relationship between school sports and self-esteem. Data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health on Caucasian and African American girls and boys were employed to test the model. School attachment and physical well-being absorbed the statistical effect of participating in a sport for all four gender-by-race groups. Among Caucasian girls a negative residual effect of sports participation was observed, which suggests that sports participation encapsulates multiple effects with contradictory influences. For African American girls school attachment by itself was not a significant mediator of the effect of sports participation on self-esteem. For all groups a sense of physical well-being was the more powerful mediator.     

RETURNS TO SKILLS AND PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT: U.S. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE SCIENTISTS AND ENGINEERS

Personnel records are used to examine compensation, recruitment, and retention of a group of highly skilled workers: civilian scientists and engineers in U.S. Department of Defense laboratories. In contrast to those of the private sector, returns to skills were largely flat for this group from 1982 to 1996. Despite this, quality and performance of recruits relative to earlier cohorts, and of those retained relative to those who left, remained stable. One explanation is the importance of defense industry–specific human capital. These results hold for three different pay plans, including the federal government's primary plan and two intended to introduce greater flexibility in personnel management. (JEL J31 , J44 , J45 , M52 )     

INDIVIDUALISM, FAMILY VALUES, AND THE PROFESSIONAL MIDDLE CLASS:

This study examines in-depth interview data on how advanced law and MBA students defined long-term meaning in life in the context of their life plans for work, family, leisure, and community. Findings reveal that while many hope to derive meaning from all of these life domains, most place special emphasis upon the family. These findings have special importance for theoretical debates about the new individualism, family values, and civil society for the advancing generation of post-baby-boomers in the middle class. Analysis of interview data elaborates on why family is meaningful for these respondents, while raising key issues surrounding the relationship between individualism and family life. Findings also point to limited visions of community and public life among young professionals, suggesting a focus on privatism.     

RETURNS TO FIELD OF STUDY VERSUS SCHOOL QUALITY: MBA SELECTION ON OBSERVED AND UNOBSERVED HETEROGENEITY

While a substantial literature has established returns to college major and to school quality, we offer the first such estimates for Master's of Business Administration (MBAs). To control for their nonrandom selection of fields, we estimate the returns to MBA concentrations using both ordinary least squares (OLS) with detailed control variables and including individual fixed effects. We find approximately 7% returns for most MBAs but roughly double that for finance and management information systems (MIS). Thus, MBA area of study can matter as much or more than program quality: only attending a top 10, but not 11‐25, MBA program trumped studying finance and MIS at a nontop 25 program. (JEL I21, J30, J24)     

GERMAN BY VIRTUE OF OTHERS: THE SEARCH FOR IDENTITY IN THREE DEBATES

This paper argues that German identity is primarily constructed in opposition to a negative ‘other’, with ‘the Jew’ as prototypical other. The general trajectory of German identity construction throughout the 1980s and 1990s was towards the normalization of German identity, a mending in response to the radical break in German history by the Nazi regime and the Holocaust. This development will be traced through three debates that crosscut the realms of professional scholarship and the public – the Historians' Debate of 1985/86, the German unification debate of 1989 and the Goldhagen debate of 1996 – with focus on the contributions by professional scholars. The basic dichotomous structure of self-other is complicated by recurring themes in the construction of contemporary German identity. Three central themes or problems are identified in the debates: efforts at exclusively positive definitions of German identity, the definition of German identity in relation to a negative other and the location of the Holocaust in German history. The focus in the interpretation of these themes is on the subtle changes of identity over time, conceptualized in terms of repetition with change. The essay closes with a plea for a more open and inclusive definition of German identity and some thoughts on the role of the public intellectual in German society.     

THE EXTENT OF THE MARKET AND INTEGRATION THROUGH FACTOR MARKETS: EVIDENCE FROM WHOLESALE ELECTRICITY

We document the influence of factor markets in determining the extent of the market, appealing to the Mundell hypothesis that trade in goods and factor markets are substitutes. We confirm this influence using the U.S. wholesale market for electric power. Although the Eastern, Western, and Texas regions cannot trade electricity, inputs such as natural gas move freely across these regions. Through a set of price transmission ratios, and a supply model for natural gas, we find regional electricity shocks do propagate across regions. We conclude output markets institutionally in autarky achieve modest degrees of economic integration through factor markets. (JEL C32, L94, Q41)     

INFLATION AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF PRICE CHANGES ACROSS MARKETS: A CAUSAL ANALYSIS

Recent advances in time series methodology are applied to the investigation of causal relationships between monthly changes in the consumer price index and changes in its dispersion across different consumption categories. This dispersion is associated with the degree to which relative prices are changing. Past inflation rates seem useful in forecasting changes in relative prices, but not vice-versa; there is also a significant contemporaneous correlation between these series. Hence, it is concluded that fluctuations in the inflation rate help cause fluctuations in relative prices, but not vice-versa unless the entire effect occurs within a month. The analysis also serves to illustrate a new way to implement the Granger causality concept.     

THE FUN GOD: SPORTS,RECREATION, LEISURE,AND AMUSEMENT IN THE UNITED STATES

Twenty‐five Caribbean and Latin American nations were examined to determine the relationship between potential female headed families and other social indicators. Regression analysis reveals that women's labor market participation is associated with the proportion of families potentially headed by women. The share of girls in secondary school is also associated with the dependent variable. Social indicators of modernization and dependency were regressed on potential female‐headed households. Neither approach alone explains the formation of female‐headed families in the region.     

UNEVEN PLAYING FIELDS: STATE VARIATIONS IN BOYS' AND GIRLS' ACCESS TO AND PARTICIPATION IN HIGH SCHOOL INTERSCHOLASTIC SPORTS

Using 2000 aggregate Office of Civil Rights (OCR) data combined with demographic and contextual data from National Center for Educational Statistics (NCES); this paper finds gender parity in only a handful of states, wide variation among states in girls and boys access to single-gender interscholastic sports and teams, and that states vary widely in patterns of participation in single-gender sports activities. Regression analyses suggest that gender disparities in athletic participation opportunities among states is associated with states per pupil expenditures and student racial composition. Gender disparities in single-gender athletic participation rates among states are strongly associated with participation opportunities as well as per pupil expenditures and student racial and composition.     

TACIT COLLUSION IN AUCTIONS AND CONDITIONS FOR ITS FACILITATION AND PREVENTION: EQUILIBRIUM SELECTION IN LABORATORY EXPERIMENTAL MARKETS

The paper studies bidder behavior in simultaneous, continuous, ascending price auctions. We design and implement a "collusion incubator" environment based on a type of public, symmetrically "folded" and "item-aligned" preferences. Tacit collusion develops quickly and reliably within the environment. Once tacit collusion developed, it proved remarkably robust to institutional changes that weakened it as an equilibrium of a game-theoretic model. The only successful remedy was a non-public change in the preference of participants that destroyed the symmetrically, "folded" and "item aligned" patterns of preferences, creating head-to-head competition between two agents reminiscent of the concept of a "maverick." ( JEL L50, L94, D43)     

REPUTATION TRANSMISSION WITHOUT BENEFIT TO THE REPORTER: A BEHAVIORAL UNDERPINNING OF MARKETS IN EXPERIMENTAL FOCUS

Reputation is a commonly cited check on opportunism, but it is often unclear what motivates an agent to report another's behavior when it is easy for the aggrieved individual to move on. In a sharply focused laboratory experiment, we find that many cooperators pay to report a defecting partner without the possibility of pecuniary benefit when this has the potential to deprive the latter of future gains and to help his next partner. We illustrate how a social preference can explain such costly reporting, and also discuss evidence for a role of emotions. (JEL C91, D03, D63)