COMMODITY PRICES AND BANK LENDING

We analyze the transmission of changes in commodity prices to bank lending in a large sample of developing countries. A bank-level analysis shows that a fall in commodity net export prices is associated with a reduction of bank lending, particularly for commodity exporters and during episodes of terms-of-trade decline. We complement this analysis with loan-level data from a credit register, which allows us to identify the effect of a commodity price shock on the supply of credit, controlling for unobserved factors that could drive borrowers' credit demand. Results show that banks with relatively lower deposits and poor asset quality transmit the changes in commodity prices to lending more aggressively. (JEL F30, F34, G21, Q02)     

DIFFERENTIAL DEPOSIT GUARANTEES AND THE EFFECT OF MONETARY POLICY ON BANK LENDING

This paper utilizes differences in de jure deposit insurance coverage across banks and changes in coverage over time to identify a bank‐lending channel in Poland. Banks with partial guarantees have a stronger loan response to monetary policy than banks with full guarantees. Furthermore, the weak response of the fully guaranteed banks is attributed to their ability to raise low‐reserve, uninsured time deposits relative to the partially covered banks. When differential coverage is eliminated, there is no disparity in the loan response between the two groups. This lending channel has implications for credit control and financial system development in emerging markets. (JEL E52, G21, G28)     

LEANING AGAINST WINDY BANK LENDING

Using an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with banking, this paper first provides evidence that monetary policy reacted to bank loan growth in the United States during the Great Moderation. It then shows that the optimized simple interest‐rate rule features no response to the growth of bank credit. However, the welfare loss associated to the empirical responsiveness is small. The sources of business cycle fluctuations are crucial in determining whether a “leaning‐against‐the‐wind” policy is optimal or not. In fact, the predominant role of supply shocks in the model gives rise to a trade‐off between inflation and financial stabilization. (JEL E32, E44, E52)     

FISCAL POLICY AND LENDING RELATIONSHIPS

This paper studies how fiscal policy affects loan market conditions in the United States. First, it conducts a structural vector‐autoregression analysis showing that the bank spread responds negatively to an expansionary government spending shock, while lending increases. Second, it illustrates that these results are mimicked by a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model where the bank spread is endogenized via the inclusion of a banking sector exploiting lending relationships. Third, it shows that lending relationships represent a friction that generates a financial accelerator effect in the transmission of the fiscal shock. (JEL E44, E62)     

LENDING RELATIONSHIPS AND MONETARY POLICY

Financial intermediation and bank spreads are the important elements in the analysis of business cycle transmission and monetary policy. We present a simple framework that introduces lending relationships, a relevant feature of financial intermediation that has been so far neglected in the monetary economics literature, into a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with staggered prices and cost channels. Our main findings are (a) banking spreads move countercyclically generating amplified output responses, (b) spread movements are important for monetary policymaking even when a standard Taylor Rule is employed, (c) modifying the policy rule to include a banking spread adjustment improves stabilization of shocks and increases welfare when compared to rules that only respond to output gap and inflation, and finally (d) the presence of strong lending relationships in the banking sector can lead to indeterminacy of equilibrium forcing the Central Bank to react to spread movements. (JEL E44, E52, G21)     

COMMERCIAL BANKS AND THE FEDERAL FUNDS MARKET: RECENT DEVELOPMENT AND IMPLICATIONS

Several important aspects of the growth of the Federal funds market and non-bank participation in this market are examined. It is shown that the recent growth and development that has taken place has significantly influenced bank behavior and the process of bank credit determination. Additionally, it is shown that non-banks' use of Federal funds sales as an integral part of their cash management affects money demand. The implications of these recent developments in the Federal funds market for policymakers are examined.     

INFORMATION COSTS AND THE ORGANIZATION OF CREDIT MARKETS: A THEORY OF INDIRECT LENDING

This paper explains indirect lending as a strategy for reducing a bank's cost of screening borrowers. Commercial banks appear to "ration" credit by rejecting some direct loan applicants, although they accept higher-risk borrowers who apply for loans indirectly through retailers. However, the more thorough credit check on direct loans causes applicants to sort themselves according to risk. Indirect applicants signal their higher risk through their choice of financing. Since banks gather more accurate information on direct applicants, the two types of contracts should differ in predictable ways. These implications are tested with Federal Reserve data on 5,000 automobile loans.     

BANKS,DEBT AND RISK: ASSESSING THE SPILLOVERS OF CORPORATE TAXES

We find evidence of tax-driven strategic allocation of debt and asset risk across group entities of European banks. We evaluate the effects that establishing tax neutrality between debt and equity finance has on systemic risk, and show that the degree of coordination in implementing the hypothetical tax reform matters. In particular, a coordinated elimination of the tax advantage of debt would significantly reduce systemic losses in the event of a severe banking crisis. By contrast, uncoordinated tax reforms are not equally beneficial precisely because national tax policies generate spillovers through cross-border bank activities. (JEL G21, G28, H25)     

INFORMAL SECTOR AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: THE CREDIT SUPPLY CHANNEL

The standard view suggests that removing barriers to entry and improving judicial enforcement reduces informality and boosts investment and growth. However, a general equilibrium approach shows that this conclusion may hold to a lesser extent in countries with a constrained supply of funds because of, for example, a more concentrated banking sector or lower financial openness. When the formal sector grows larger in those countries, more entrepreneurs become creditworthy, but the higher pressure on the credit market limits further capital accumulation. We show empirical evidence consistent with these predictions. (JEL O16, O43, E26)     

BANKS,FREE BANKS,AND U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH

The “Federalist financial revolution” may have jump‐started the U.S. economy into modern growth, but the Free Banking System (1837–1862) did not play a direct role in sustaining it. Despite lowering entry barriers and extending banking into developing regions, we find in county‐level data that free banks had little or no effect on growth. The result is not just a symptom of the era, as state‐chartered banks seem to have strong and positive effects on manufacturing and urbanization. (JEL G21, N21, O43)     

MANAGERIAL MOTIVES, MARKET STRUCTURES AND THE PERFORMANCE OF HOLDING COMPANY BANKS

Since the late 1960's bank holding companies have become a dominant force in U. S. banking; they now account for over 2/3 of the nation's total deposits. This paper tests the hypothesis that the holding company form of organization leads to relatively risk-taking behavior by affiliated banks. A major finding is that holding company banks react to monopolistic market situations by choosing risker portfolios and by leveraging to a greater extent than their independent counterparts. Such a behavioral characteristic has important implications for the allocation of resources in the country's 2600 local banking markets and for the regulation of financial institutions in general.     

THE CREDIT‐CHANNEL TRANSMISSION MECHANISM AND THE NONLINEAR GROWTH AND WELFARE EFFECTS OF INFLATION AND TAXES

With the credit‐channel effect driven by the central bank's open market operations, this paper's model easily gives rise to the nonlinear inflation‐growth nexus, which is evidenced by a number of cross‐country empirical studies. The threshold level of the inflation rate is found to be lower when tax rates are higher. The presence of the credit‐channel effect also provides the rationale for setting positive (and smaller than 1) tax rates on consumption, labor income, and capital income. The optimal tax rates rise as the inflation target declines. Under a fiscal policy rule where labor and capital income taxes move proportionally to each other, the optimal capital income tax rate could be higher than the optimal labor income tax rate. Under a sufficiently large central bank balance sheet, the credit‐channel effect will be so weak that inflation and all kinds of taxes are growth and welfare repressing. This provides a rationale for central banks that have implemented quantitative easing policies to shrink their balance sheets. (JEL E58, E62, O42)     

CENTRAL BANK REPUTATION AND THE MONETIZATION OF DEFICITS: THE 1981 ITALIAN MONETARY REFORM

In 1981 the Bank of Italy was freed from the obligation to purchase the unsold public debt at the Treasury auctions. Since then, the Bank of Italy has reduced debt monetization. The paper seeks to explain this policy shift by analyzing a game between the monetary and fiscal authorities. The fiscal authority is imperfectly informed about the central bank preferences. An equilibrium exists in which the central bank does not monetize, so as to establish a reputation of being independent. Monetization raises fiscal deficits and may raise public debt relative to a non-accommodative policy.     

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: THE GROWTH ACCOUNTING PERSPECTIVE

A positive relationship between FDI and economic growth under two economic conditions has been estimated: a sufficient level of human capital and well-developed financial markets, respectively. However, these two conditions can be fundamentally different catalysts for FDI to promote economic growth in the perspective of growth accounting. Using data from 69 countries over 1970–1989, we find that FDI promotes productivity growth only when the host country reaches a threshold level of human capital; and FDI promotes capital growth only when a certain level of financial development is achieved. ( JEL F21)     

THE IMPACT OF TELEVISED SPEECHES AND FOREIGN TRAVEL ON PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL

Considerable attention has been devoted in recent years to theuse of political drama by the president, with the most discretionaryforms of drama—speeches and foreign travel—receivingmuch scrutiny. In fact, there has arisen a conventional wisdomwhich asserts that televised speeches and foreign travel bythe president (1) have increased over time, (2) exert a uniformlypositive impact on public evaluations of the president's performance,and (3) can therefore be used as a strategy for influencingthe president's approval ratings, a vital resource for the modernpresident. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate this conventionalwisdom and thus assess the value of televised speeches and foreigntravel as influences on presidential approval. The paper firstdefines political drama and casts the conventional wisdom inthe form of three propositions. It next develops a researchstrategy for evaluating these propositions in an appropriatemanner. Finally, the paper tests the propositions. The resultscast considerable doubt on the conventional wisdom and leadto the conclusion that the use of political drama is not anall-purpose strategy guaranteed to halt declines or replenishsizable losses of presidential approval.     

U.S. COMMERCIAL BANK LENDING THROUGH 2008:Q4: NEW EVIDENCE FROM GROSS CREDIT FLOWS

What was hiding behind the aggregate commercial bank loans through the end of 2008? We use balance sheet data for every insured U.S. commercial bank from 1999:Q1 to 2008:Q4 to construct credit expansion and credit contraction series and provide new evidence on changes in lending. Until 2008:Q3 net credit growth was not dissimilar to the 1980 and 2001 recessions. However, between the third and fourth quarter credit contraction grew larger than credit expansion across all types of loans and for the largest banks. With the inclusion of 2008:Q4 data our series most resemble the intensification of the Savings and Loan crisis. (JEL E44, E51, G21)     

MORTGAGE LENDING IN BOSTON: A RECONSIDERATION OF THE EVIDENCE

Is there statistical evidence of racial discrimination in home mortgage markets? The Boston Fed recently addressed this concern head-on, by collecting all available data from loan applications in Boston. They find that the extent of discrimination is reduced after one accounts for all of the confounding variables measured in these applications, but that it remains statistically significant. However, their strong conclusions are unwarranted due to the use of invalid statistical methods. Correctly evaluated, their data provide no significant evidence of racial discrimination in mortgage markets. (JEL K31, J7)