DETERRENCE,PREEMPTION, AND PANIC: A COMMON‐ENEMY PROBLEM OF TERRORISM

A game‐theoretic analysis of terrorism examines interactions between a terrorist organization and multiple target countries. It considers both preemption and deterrence as counter‐terrorist policies. Damage from terror includes material costs and resultant fear. Fear effects lead to different equilibria and implications for counter‐terrorism policies. The model identifies conditions under which greater preemption may be the rational response to an increase in terrorism, that is, it analyzes the merit of the dictum “offense is the best defense.” It also examines the characteristics of cooperative behavior among target countries in dealing with the threat of terrorism. (JEL C72, D74, F52, F53, H41)     

Sociology of Terrorism and Counterterrorism: A Social Science Understanding of Terrorist Threat

The purpose of this article is to outline a social science understanding of terrorist threat, with special reference to political violence of new terrorist groups, fundamentalist movements and extremist organisations such as Al-Qaeda. Four main terrorism topics will be examined: (i) Definition of terrorism . We will make explicit the political and moral implications of the word 'terrorism' by tracing a brief history of terrorism; at the same time, a definition of terrorism will be proposed based on an overview of terrorism studies. (ii) Typology of terrorism . The topic to be addressed here concerns the classification of terrorist groups, paying special attention to contemporary fundamentalist movements and extremist organisations (particularly after World War II). (iii) Explanation of terrorism. Criticism will be made of psychological explanations of terrorism that try to trace political violence back to specific personal traits or psychopathological profiles of terrorists. We will offer an alternative explanation, focusing on specific social, cultural and religious factors to be considered the root causes of terrorism. Suicide terrorism will be used as a case study. (iv) C ounterterrorism policy . Here, we will discuss some of the limitations and counterproductive effects of the counterterrorism measures adopted by governments after 9/11, including new antiterrorism legislation, the case of special detention at Guantanamo Bay, and the Iraq invasion. Most of such limitations are due to a misunderstanding of the political culture and ideology of Islamic extremism and fundamentalism (Islamism). Some concluding remarks will summarise the findings of the article and underline the most important suggestions for a future research agenda in the sociology of terrorism and counterterrorism.     

Social Science Discourse and the Biopolitics of Terrorism

This article weaves social science discourse into the fabric of a genealogy of terrorism. The power struggles associated with the US lead global war on terrorism are producing many new objects of knowledge and possible lines of research (e.g., Islamic terrorists, jihadists, suicide bombers, experts on counterterrorism, and ISIS). This process is modeled as a cycle involving power struggles and power elite orchestrated political victimage rituals and a biopolitics of knowledge. This dynamic is explored in terms of social science discourse and the biopolitics of terrorism. The limits of current thinking in “counterterrorism” and the possibilities of future research are highlighted.     

Three novels of terrorism: explorations in the politics of literature

ABSTRACT

This article explores the political role of literature through the medium of three novels of terrorism: Francesca Marciano’s Casa Rossa, Nicholas Shakespeare’s The Dancer Upstairs and Ann Patchett’s Bel Canto. The literary features of these novels, set in the Italy of the Red Brigades and the Peru of Shining Path and Tupac Amaru, foster a political perspective that is a de facto endorsement of the status quo in each society. They hinder a comprehensive understanding of the underpinnings of terrorism that is essential to the formation of counterterrorism strategies.     

Are You A Terrorist? Comparing Security Screening for Iraqi Asylum Seekers in the United States and Sweden

How can countries balance demands for national security while remaining committed to humanitarian protection? In 2016, the United States and European Union agreed to resettle significant numbers of refugees. Some politicians, including President Trump, argued that refugees are a security threat, even though there are few refugees connected to terrorism. This article investigates how the United States and Sweden screened for terrorism with Iraqi asylum seekers from 2003‐2013, in order to discover how states balance protection and security. This study finds significant policy convergence in three areas (security checks and databases, interagency cooperation, and safety valve programmes), but retains different definitions of terrorism. Policy convergence was driven by international law, UNHCR guidance notes, and international conferences. The study concludes by discussing the policy implications for “extreme vetting” and the use of future safety valve programmes.

Policy Implications

• From 2003‐2013, both the US and Sweden added new security checks, databases, and interagency cooperation. One lesson is that in response to perceived security threats, states often add new layers of bureaucracy and technologies, resulting in slower, more burdensome processes.
• To overcome these barriers, both the US and Sweden created safety value immigration programmes to relieve the pressure from overwhelming demand from Iraqi asylum‐seekers. Policymakers should consider the strategic use of safety valve programmes to speed up processing, allocate additional resources, and provide temporary protection without revising the wider immigration systems.

     

SIGNAL EXTRACTION AND RATIONAL INATTENTION

In this paper we examine the implications of two theories of informational frictions, signal extraction (SE) and rational inattention (RI), for optimal decisions and economic dynamics within the linear‐quadratic‐Gaussian (LQG) setting. We first show that if the variance of the noise and channel capacity (or marginal information cost) is fixed exogenously in the SE and RI problems, respectively, the two environments lead to different policy and equilibrium asset pricing implications. Second, we find that if the signal‐to‐noise ratio and capacity in the SE and RI problems are fixed, respectively, the two theories generate the same policy implications in the univariate case, but different policy implications in the multivariate case. We also show that our results do not depend on the presence of correlation between fundamental and noise shocks. We then discuss the applications to macroeconomic models of permanent income and price‐setting. (JEL C61, D81, E21)     

Consequences of Male Partner Violence for Low‐Income Minority Women

The current study used a random sample of 563 low‐income women to test Johnson's (1995) theory that there are two major forms of male‐partner violence, situational couple violence and intimate terrorism, which are distinguished in terms of their embeddedness in a general pattern of control. The study examined the associations between type of violence experienced and respondents’ physical health, psychological distress, and economic well‐being. Analyses revealed three distinct patterns of partner violence: intimate terrorism, control/no threat, and situational couple violence. Compared to victims of control/no threat and situational couple violence, victims of intimate terrorism reported more injuries from physical violence and more work/activity time lost because of injuries. Compared to women who experienced no violence in the previous year, victims of intimate terrorism reported a greater likelihood of visiting a doctor, poorer health, more psychological distress, and a greater likelihood of receiving government assistance.     

ASSET PRICE BUBBLES AND TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION

We introduce borrowing constraints into a two‐sector Schumpeterian growth model and examine the impact of asset price bubbles on innovation. In this environment, rational bubbles arise when the intermediate good producing R&D sector is faced with adverse productivity shocks. Importantly, these bubbles help alleviate credit constraints and facilitate innovation in the stagnant economy. On the policy front, we make a case for debt financed credit to the R&D sector. Further, we establish that a constant credit growth rule (akin to the Friedman rule) outperforms the often prescribed counter‐cyclical “lean against the wind” credit policy. (JEL E32, E44, O40)     

Permisos de salida para presos: ¿una cuestión jurídica o ideológica?

Abstract

As a result of the overwhelming preoccupation with uncovering the process of radicalization into terrorist activity, little attention has been paid to the related, yet distinct processes of disengagement and deradicalization from terrorism. This continuing neglect is ironic because it may be in the analysis of disengagement that practical initiatives for counterterrorism may become more apparent in their development and feasible in their execution. While a variety of deradicalization initiatives worldwide are currently receiving enormous interest, it is inevitable they be subjected to scrutiny regarding their alleged outcomes and claimed successes. A more immediate challenge, however, is to assert some conceptual and terminological clarity. While deradicalization has become a recent concern within counterterrorism, it is critical that we distinguish it from disengagement and stress that not only are they different, but that just because one leaves terrorism behind, it rarely implies (or even necessitates) that one become ‘deradicalized’. One of several implications arising from this distinction may be a more realistic appraisal of how our knowledge and understanding of the disengagement processes (and not undefined and poorly conceptualized deradicalization efforts) may be put to effective use in the short-medium term development of research agendas.     

A SIMPLE MODEL OF OPTIMAL HATE CRIME LEGISLATION

We present a simple model of the effects of hate crime legislation. We show that even if the direct harm to victims of hate crime is the same as for other crimes, because of other differences in the effects it may still be optimal to exert a different level of law‐enforcement effort to deter or prevent hate crime. These differences also have previously unrecognized effects on the optimal level of effort by potential hate crime victims to avoid being victimized, thus affecting the efficiency of government policies that encourage or discourage such effort. In some cases, the optimal level of government effort may be lower for hate crimes than for other crimes. Our analysis suggests a role for policy tools that influence individual avoidance effort directly. We discuss the implications of our results for similar types of crime, including terrorism. (JEL K42, K14, D02)     

HEALTH CARE INFLATION AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR MONETARY POLICY

Motivated by recent findings on the cyclical movement of both health and health spending, we construct a general equilibrium model that distinguishes health care demand from the demand for other goods. Using this model, we are able to generate inflation dynamics and cyclicality of health that match the US data. When the model is subjected to an expansionary monetary policy shock, it yields different output and inflation responses compared with a two‐sector model with homogeneous demand. We show that the trade‐off between leisure and health spending plays an important role in model dynamics. The model further predicts different degrees of inflation stabilization across sectors when a shift in the monetary policy occurs. (JEL E52, E31, E32, I10)     

The causes of terrorism

Abstract

Terrorist attacks on 11 September 2001 and after intensified concerns about a global Jihad and other forms of terrorism, and renewed calls to better understand its causes or roots. There have been divergent views on this question, and terrorism has been argued to be caused by increased poverty, rapid urbanization, declining traditional authority, globalization, and so forth. These differences, reflecting philosophical, religious, political and other differences, are not merely academic; they can affect our understanding of both the threat and of responses to terrorism. This article provides an analytic framework for understanding the limits to understanding the causes of terrorism, identifying what can be known about causation and assessing counterterrorism implications.     

EFFECTIVE EUROPEAN ANTITRUST: DOES EC MERGER POLICY GENERATE DETERRENCE?

We estimate the deterrence effects of European Commission (EC) merger policy instruments over the 1990–2009 period. Our empirical results suggest phase‐1 remedies uniquely generate robust deterrence as—unlike phase‐1 withdrawals, phase‐2 remedies, and preventions—phase‐1 remedies lead to fewer merger notifications in subsequent years. Furthermore, the deterrence effects of phase‐1 remedies work best in high‐concentration industries, that is, industries where the Herfindahl Hirschman Index is above the 0.2 cut‐off level employed by the EC. Additionally, we find phase‐1 remedies do not deter clearly pro‐competitive mergers, but do deter potentially anti‐competitive mergers in high‐concentration industries. (JEL K21, K40, L40)     

Parallels in propaganda? A comparative historical analysis of Islamic State and the Nazi Party

ABSTRACT

This article responds to calls for more comparative historical studies in public relations history across nations and cultures with a comparative analysis of the propaganda operations of Islamic State with the Nazi Party. This comparative historical approach aims to reduce the uncertainty associated with extremist terrorism and bring a historic-communicative perspective to an organization that politicians and commentators arguably overestimate in what has been described as the “epistemological crisis” of Western counterterrorism. This investigation attempts a methodological expansion of public relations historiography by applying the theoretical approach of historical institutionalism as basis for comparison between the two institutions alongside conventional content and artefact analysis. The project identifies ten parallels in propaganda and concludes that some of these commonalities – including a focus on engaging and recruiting young people, for example – can provide historically-derived guidance on counter terrorism responses in the communicative sphere.     

MONETARY POLICY AND ANTI‐CYCLICAL BANK CAPITAL REGULATION

The financial crisis of 2008–2009 revived attention given to booms and busts in bank credit, and their effects on real activity. This interest sparked two different strands of research in macro. The first one focuses on monetary policy in the context of financial frictions. The second studies capital regulation in banking. To the best of our knowledge, so far these two topics have mostly been studied in isolation from each other. Thus, we still lack an understanding of how monetary policy and bank capital regulation interact in the presence of financial fragility. This paper aims to contribute to furthering this understanding. Specifically, we ask how the monetary policy rule should look like in the presence of cyclical capital requirements. We extend the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with bank capital in Aliaga‐Díaz and Olivero by introducing price rigidities in the spirit of the New‐Keynesian literature. We find that: First, anti‐cyclical requirements have important stabilization properties relative to the case of constant requirements. This is true for all types of fluctuations that we study, which include those caused by productivity, preference, fiscal, monetary, and financial shocks. Second, output and consumption volatilities present in the no regulation economy can be recovered with anti‐cyclical requirements as long as the policy rate responds only slightly to credit spreads. Third, monetary policy rules that respond to credit conditions also perform better in terms of welfare. (JEL E32, E44)     

Non‐understanding as a heuristic to hypothesizing cultural models: A meta‐oriented sociolinguistic strategy1

This article is concerned with the development of an analytic strategy to construct U.S. cultural models of war and terrorism, which are ‘mediatized’ or significantly shaped by the media. Central to that strategy are repair cues to non‐understanding as heuristics in intercultural encounters. These are applied to an inherently mediatized discursive ‘reality’ of war and terrorism. Theoretically, I synthesize sociolinguistic and anthropological perspectives into a ‘meta‐oriented sociolinguistics’, which analytically focuses on the meta‐dimension of discourse. The strategy is applied to a text on war and terrorism from the New York Times, to demonstrate its utility. Furthermore, I provide implications for enhancing validity in the ethnography of mediatized discourse. Specific to the findings of this article, I suggest that corpus studies of media discourse should be conducted on the metadiscursive keywords kamikaze, surprise attacks, Pearl Harbor, and 9/11 in particular temporal frames.     

QUOTA‐HOPPING IN‐BOND DIVERSION

We show that the U.S. in‐bond system of imports may be used by firms to illegally avoid trade barriers, a practice known as in‐bond diversion. The illicit scheme involves declaring Chinese exports bound for Mexico but diverting them to the U.S. market while in transit, thus creating a gap between Chinese and Mexican reports. Using the phaseout and removal of U.S. quotas at the end of the Multifiber Agreement as a policy experiment, as well as variation in quota bindingness across products, we show that quota‐bound products were associated with larger trade gaps which shrunk following the quota removals. (JEL F13, O17, O19)     

FORECASTING CRUDE OIL PRICE MOVEMENTS WITH OIL‐SENSITIVE STOCKS

This paper uses monthly data from 1984:M10 to 2012:M8 to show that oil‐sensitive stock price indices, particularly those in the energy sector, have strong power in predicting nominal and real crude oil prices at short horizons (1‐month‐ahead predictions), using both in‐ and out‐of‐sample tests. In particular, the forecasts based on oil‐sensitive stock price indices are able to outperform significantly the no‐change forecasts. For example, using the NYSE Arca (AMEX) oil index as a predictor, the 1‐month‐ahead forecasts for nominal crude oil prices reduce the mean squared prediction error by between 22% (for the West Texas Intermediate oil price) and 28% (for the Dubai oil price). Moreover, we find that the directional forecast based on the AMEX oil index is significantly better than a 50:50 coin toss. The novelty of this analysis is that it proposes a new and valuable predictor that both reflects timely market information and is readily available for forecasting the spot oil price.(JEL G17, Q43, Q47, C53)     

The death of bin Laden: How Russian and U.S. media frame counterterrorism

This study explored how Russian and U.S. newspapers covered the death of Osama bin Laden in 2011 through the lens of framing theory. Results reflect significant disparity in how media in different countries covered the same event, suggesting that terrorism events were framed as national concerns rather than global issues, thus potentially limiting governments and the media from building a shared understanding with international audiences. The findings also indicate that more robust media relations efforts are needed to counter simplistic media counterterrorism frames. Finally, the study identified new frames for counterterrorism including secrecy and humanizing terrorists. These new frames suggest the need to expand the framing literature to provide a better understanding of how the media cover counterterrorism, which may impact the U.S. government's public diplomacy and counterterrorism efforts.     

COMMON DRIVERS OF TRANSNATIONAL TERRORISM: PRINCIPAL COMPONENT ANALYSIS

This article applies principal component analysis to decompose transnational terrorism during 1970–2007 into common (worldwide) and idiosyncratic (country‐specific) factors. Regardless of alternative thresholds and filtering procedures, a single common factor is related to individual countries' transnational terrorist events. Based on a conventional criterion, Lebanon's transnational terrorism is the key common driver of global transnational terrorist incidents. With a more conservative criterion, four additional countries—United States, Germany, Iraq, and the United Kingdom—are core countries in explaining cross‐sectional correlation across 106 countries' transnational terrorism. The analysis shows that there is a marked cross‐sectional dependence among transnational terrorist incidents worldwide. (JEL C38, H56)