The geography of fertility reduction in Kenya

Record high fertility levels were recorded for Kenya in the late 1970's; however, a fertility reversal was experienced during the 1980's. Recent studies by Njoru, Robinson and the National Research Council and data from the 1989 and 1993 KDHS indicate that the fertility decline is real and pervasive. The release of the 1989 census data provides researchers with an additional source to document the fertility decline and to identify the spatial pattern of fertility reduction at the province and district level. The geography of fertility reduction is explored by addressing differences in the annual rate of population growth for each province and district.     

Estimates of fertility in Bangladesh

The attempt is made to estimate fertility levels in Bangladesh on the basis of data collected during the 1974 Census. In the 1st section attention is directed to providing an overall picture of the demographic situation in the country. Comparisons between the 1961 and 1974 data demonstrates that the 1974 Census data provide consistent results. Factors such as the degree of urbanization, literacy and economic participation rates--considered as indicators of development--all seem to show little progress during the intercensal period. The use of child/women ratios (CWRs) provides plausible evidence of the likelihood of a fertility decline. A decline in CWR values is small for "all areas" but a marked decline can be noted for "urban areas." The recorded mean number of children is less in 1974 than in 1961 for women under age 35 whereas for the older groups the 1974 Census shows higher mean numbers. The Bangladesh Fertility Survey (BFS) data result for the total fertility rate of 6.58 is very close to that estimated for the 1974 Census--6.59. The reverse survival method also indicates that birthrates have been lower during the 1969-1974 period.     

Is the long-term reduction in occupational sex segregation still continuing in the United States?

This research note uses comparable data on 13 broad occupational categories from the Current Population Survey to analyze changes in job segregation between men and women over the period 1972–2002. I find that the Sex Segregation Index declined by about 10 percentage points from 43.96% in 1972 to 34.10% in 2002. The long-term reduction in occupational sex segregation in the United States continued during the period 1993–2002. However, it did so at a slower pace than in the two previous decades. I also find that the pattern of changes in the sex composition of occupations and in the occupational structure that contributed to the decline in the Sex Segregation Index over the period 1972–2002 substantially shifted during the period 1993–2002. The sex composition effect represented about 65% of the reduction in segregation during the period 1972–1983 while it accounted for only about 25% during the period 1993–2002.     

Victorian values and the fertility decline: the case of Scotland

The author examines the final phase of the demographic transition in Scotland during the late nineteenth century. Particular attention is given to explanations developed by Joseph Banks concerning the fertility decline in England and Wales. Banks's analysis is reevaluated by applying it to data for Scotland. No clear pattern of fertility by occupation is found. It is suggested instead that both family size limitation and emphasis on higher education were results of value reorientations.     

Determinants of fertility: Results from a 1989 rural household survey in China

The relationship between family planning, socioeconomic conditions, and fertility was investigated in six rural villages of China. Data from a 1989 random household survey were used to test the hypothesis relating fertility (number of children born) to family planning policy (policy impact and free contraceptive provision) and socioeconomic conditions (education and income). The fertility behavior of two cohorts (the first refers to those married before 1969 and the second those between 1978 and 1980) was compared to examine the impact of strict family planning policy on fertility. The average number of children born was significantly fewer in the second cohort than the first cohort (1.6 versus 4.2) during the ten year span after marriage. The regression results indicate that family planning policy measures and female education have both direct and indirect (through influence on age at first marriage and contraceptive use) significant impact on fertility.     

Can increased educational attainment explain declining Indigenous fertility?

Prior research shows that Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women are more likely to have children and have more children, on average, than non-Indigenous women. However, like those of the total Australian population, fertility rates of Indigenous women have been declining since the 1970s. The decline has been more significant in recent years. Between 2006 and 2016, an increasing proportion of Indigenous women postponed childbirth from their teens into their 20s and 30s, leading women to have fewer children over their lifetimes. During the same period, there was a rapid increase in educational attainment among the Indigenous population. This paper examines educational gradients in fertility among Indigenous women and whether the observed fertility decline is linked with the increased educational attainment. Using data from the 2006, 2011 and 2016 Australian Census of Population and Housing and applying a shift-share decomposition analysis, we find that education has been a big driver of falling fertility rates in non-remote areas. In remote areas, education has had a much smaller effect (except for youngest women).     

Ukraine war-induced sanctions against Russia: Consequences on transition economies

We analyze the spillovers of Western economic sanctions against Russia into twenty-seven transition economies of the former Soviet Union, and Central and Eastern Europe. These spillovers are measured in terms of their impact on bilateral trade and direct investments for the period of 2014–2018. We construct a new dataset to quantify each episode of Western/US sanctions against Russia. The gravity models of bilateral trade and direct investment are used and the data analysis is conducted using Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood econometric technique. We estimate that the Western and U.S. sanctions against Russia spilled over into third-party small countries. These sanctions resulted in the significant decline of exports from transition economies, Russian imports to transition economies, and Russian direct investments to transition economies. Interestingly, the direct investments to Russia from transition economies sharply increased during the same period. The quantitative estimates of the spillovers suggest the following cumulative changes. Due to an imposed sanction type (e.g., against an individual, entity or sector) each episode of Western/U.S. sanction resulted in the decline of aforementioned indicators in the range of 10.9–30.5-million-dollar/5.6–16.9-million-dollar of exports from transition economies, 6.3–17.7-million-dollar/3.3–9.8-million-dollar of Russian imports to transition economies, and 3.4–9.4-million-dollar/1.7–5.2-million-dollar of Russian direct investments to transition economies. The direct investments to Russia from transition economies increased by 10.9–30.6-million-dollar/5.7–17-million-dollar, respectively.     

Use-effectiveness of fertility awareness among the urban poor

The efficacy, the ability of Indian women to use the Billings' Ovulation Method, and its effectiveness in helping them to control their fertility was studied in a sample of urban poor living in the Delhi slums. No attempt was made to develop a design which would rigorously test the acceptability of the method because the study was concerned with: the question of the ability of poor women to define fertility and to avoid an unwanted pregnancy by avoiding sexual relations during the fertility period; and the efficacy and use-effectiveness of the modified method which had not been tested. The study, which extended over 36 months, recruited a sample of 5752 eligible acceptors of fertility living in the urban slums. Natural family planning (NFP) use requires recurrent decision making at 2 stages: in the beginning of the menstrual cycle to check for signs of fertility; and to abstain from sexual relations in the fertility period. Age was an important variable in the use of sexual abstinence oriented methods and fertility determining methods. 192 of the acceptors were below 19 years, 1545 between 20-24 years, 2089 between 25-29 years, 1236 between 30-34 years, 520 between 35-39 years, and 170 between 40-44 years. Of 4380 of the 5302 acceptors in Treatment 1 who began to use the method after menstruation, 7 (0.16%) had a profuse discharge and could not distinguish the change in mucus because of cervicitis which was treated in cycle 2. 663 (5.4%) acceptors did not see or feel fertile mucus but noticed patches of infertile mucus throughout the cycle. 419 (69.19%) of them had a family income of less than Rs300 and 25 (3.77%) were open cases of pulmonary tuberculosis. 16 acceptors (0.37%) noticed wetness and lubrication characteristic of fertile type mucus for about 2 hours, 145 (3.31%) for 3-4 hours, and 218 (4.98%) for nearly half a day. 867 (19.79%) had 1 day, 406 (9.27%) 1-1/2 days, 939 (21.44%) for 2 days, 291 (6.64%) 2-1/2 days, 636 (14.52%) for 3 days and 187 (4.27%) 3-1/2 to 4 days of fertile mucus. 1 acceptor had 5 days of fertile mucus. 4 acceptors failed to check regularly and therefore may have missed the fertile period. In Treatment 2 the initial decision to accept the use of the method was made by the 450 husbands before instructing their wives. The continuation rate of 91.86% for 12 months with a standard error of 0.67% was surprisingly high for a sample with low literacy and occupational status, low female work participation rates, small family size and a preference for sons with low motivation to use other methods. There were 9 unplanned pregnancies classified as method failures--pregnancies which occurred in acceptors who followed the method accoring to the instruction but got pregnant. The 1 year efficacy rate (life table analysis) was 99.86%. The 1-year use-effectiveness rate was 97.43% for the 5752 cohort. The high efficacy rate of the method can be due to 2 factors: the correct identification of the fertile mucus; and the ability to clearly distinguish between infertile and fertile mucus.     

The relationship between ethnicity and fertility in New Zealand

While there is a global shift towards smaller families, some groups maintain relatively high fertility rates. The 2013 New Zealand census data were used to investigate the nature of fertility between ethnicities in New Zealand. The NZ Deprivation Index 2013 was used as a measure of socioeconomic status to determine the relationships with fertility. The results mirror research outside of New Zealand in that socioeconomic status is inversely correlated to fertility. Using crude average fertility rates, sole-ethnicity Pasifika and Māori ethnic groups still have substantially higher fertility than sole-ethnicity Europeans and Asians ethnic groups, even when simultaneously accounting for age, socioeconomic status, education, and religious affiliation. Christians have more children than individuals reportedly without any religion, and fertility rates drop on average for mothers who have higher formal qualifications. Our findings suggest that cultural, or other ethnic-specific factors differentially affect fertility for Māori, Pasifika, New Zealand European, and Asians as aggregated ethnic categories, respectively.     

Do we need a theory of demographic transition?

The process of transition in which a population's rate of natural increase changes from low to high to low is familiar yet a widely accepted theory has not been produced. This paper shows that the search for a general transition theory is ill-advised. This theory would contain laws that can be used: 1) in explaining changes in population growth rates in today's slow-growing populations, 2) in predictions of current and future changes in today's rapidly-growing populations, and 3) in formulating population control policies where fertility levels are high. The search for a general theory which can explain, predict, and control demographic transition is premised on the assumption that 1 entity, called demographic transition, is the object of these 3 uses. The attempt to encompass these 3 uses by a single theory has made each more difficult than it might otherwise be and has contributed to a serious schism within population studies between medical and behavioral approaches. Some ways in which future work on demographic transition can be made more productive are: 1) the formulation of population control policies for less developed countries, the prediction of population changes in those countries, and the explanation of historical trends, which are better treated as separate tasks; 2) elements of medical and behavioral approaches require reintegration; 3) mortality decline appears to be only a highly indirect source of fertility decline; 4) neither development, modernization, nor urbanization appear to be theoretically significant sources of fertility decline; and 5) neither crude birthrates nor fertility levels appear to be theoretically significant dependent variables.     

Efficiency and Productivity changes in the presence of undesirable outcomes in Emergency Obstetric and Newborn Care

This paper analyzes efficiency and productivity changes in Emergency Obstetric and Newborn care (EmONC) in regional public hospitals in India. A novel approach of Weighted Russell Directional Distance Function Model (WRDDFM) has been employed. This model considers all the radial and non-radial slacks associated with good outputs as well as the undesirable outcomes while estimating inefficiency and helps to identify the source of the inefficiency. The empirical results based on a sample of 46 regional public hospitals from 2006–07 to 2013–14 show on average overall inefficiency of 24% and much of these are due to inefficiencies associated with undesirable outcome of stillbirths and intra-uterine deaths. Further, on an average the sampled hospitals have experienced marginal productivity decline over the reform period. The study indicates that there is a greater scope for efficiency and productivity gains in public hospitals, particularly if the undesirable outcome of still birth is minimized.     

Demographic significance of sterilization in three Indian states

Female sterilization has become one of the most widely used contraceptive methods in India since the introduction of family planning program. In this paper, an attempt is made to study the demographic significance of sterilization in three Indian states namely, Andhra Pradesh, Goa, and Kerala, using the National Family Health Survey, 1992–1993 (NFHS-I). The timing of sterilization and the impact of sterilization on fertility are discussed in this paper. Results reveal that the proportion of couples who sterilize before age 30 is higher in Andhra Pradesh, while the proportion of couples who accept sterilization within 10 years of marriage is higher in Kerala. Also in Kerala, the number of births averted due to sterilization remained high as compared to the other two states. The study also shows that a further reduction in fertility can be achieved in the state of Andhra Pradesh by increasing the use of temporary contraceptives.     

Gender,Racial, and Ethnic Disclosure in NIH K-Award Funded Diabetes and Obesity Clinical Trials∗

In 1993, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) passed The Revitalization Act (Subtitle B) which mandated that all NIH funded clinical trials have “appropriate representation” of minority and women subjects. Our aim was to evaluate the impact of the mandate by examining the reporting and inclusion of minority and female subjects into NIH K-Award funded clinical trials, addressing the minority predominant diagnoses of diabetes and clinical obesity. Using the CRISP search engine and PUBMED, we selected publications published by the National Institute on Aging (NIA) and National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (NIDDK) K-grant recipients during 1989–2004, associated with all the diabetes and obesity clinical trials. Studies were stratified into three timeline categories (1989–1993, pre-mandate; 1993–1996, post-mandate, and 1997–present, well past mandate) to evaluate trends in the recruiting of minorities and women before, during, and after the passing of the Revitalization Act. Of the 165 papers, only 37% disclosed race, a number that did not improve over time (p = .15), whereas 92% disclosed gender. Clinical trials that focused on females increased across the 3 timeframes (p < .001) for diabetes studies but not obesity studies. Overall, disclosure of race declined over the 3 timeframes whereas individually, the disclosure of African Americans improved.     

Hindu-Muslim differential fertility: how much religious and how much socio?

Data from the Bangladesh Fertility Survey (BFS) of 1975 were used to test the hypotheses that the higher the socioeconomic status, the lower the fertility and the narrower the difference in fertility between Muslims and Hindus; and the lower the socioeconomic status, the higher the fertility and the greater the difference in fertility between Muslims and Hindus. The core group for analysis in this study of women married only once and reported to fecund includes 3914 Muslims and 824 Hindus. Actual analysis was based on fewer than these 4738 because of nonresponse to 1 or more pertinent interview questions used in this study. Multiple classification analysis (MCA) was used to analyze the data. Prior to adjustment for the effect of other variables, the fertility of Muslims was a little lower than that of Hindus. The average number of children born to Muslims was 3.89; it was 3.95 for Hindus. Fertility tended to decline with improvement in socioeconomic status, i.e., increase in the level of education, i.e., no formal and primary level, and this almost converged at the middle and higher educational levels. At the lower levels of education, i.e., no formal and 1-5 grades, Muslims had .19-.34 children more than Hindus. This difference was reduced to .07 children at the middle level education, i.e., 6-9 grades. At the higher level of education, Muslims had .09 fewer children than Hindus, and this difference was statistically significant. Prior to adjustment for the effect of other variables, the fertility of Muslims was higher than that of Hindus at almost every level of age at marriage. This picture was reversed when adjustment was made for the effect of other variables. At the lower levels of age at marriage, Muslims has .23-.20 more children than Hindus. At the middle age at marriage, Muslims had .08 fewer children than Hindus. This difference was statistically significant. There was virtually no difference between the 2 groups at the higher age at marriage, i.e., 20-21 years. The effect of urbanization on fertility by education differed for Hindus and Muslims. For Hindus, fertility at each level of education was higher in urban than in rural areas. For Muslims, fertility at each level of education, particularly at higher levels, was lower in urban than in rural areas. No significant difference was found in the use of contraception between Muslims and Hindus at higher levels of education, but at lower levels of education contraceptive use among Hindus was significantly higher than for Muslims. The findings suggest that with an improvement in education, fertility will decline with a corresponding increase in the use of contraception and the difference in fertility and use of contraception between Muslims and Hindus will disappear. The findings also support the tenet that development, especially education, is the best formula for reducing fertility in poor countries.     

A note on the analytical methods of differential determinants of fertility in Bangladesh

"This paper aims at making a note on the problems inherent in the analytical methods of differential determinants of fertility in Bangladesh. Two approaches are there to illustrate the issues. One is to pick up studies that have been conducted by different researchers, and make note of the problems from those studies. Another one is to pick up a data set and perform the relevant analyses to point out the limitations inherent in the methods. The second approach has been opted for this exercise.... The standard recode file (BD SRO3) of the Bangladesh Fertility Survey...has been used as the data source."     

Evaluation of Fertility Levels and Adjustment of Fertility Policy: Based on the Current Situation of the Chinese Mainland’s Provincial Fertility Levels

During the 11^th Five-year Plan (2006-2010), the total fertility rate of the mainland of China was 1.481 and was stable with a slight decline, exhibiting a spatial pattern of moderately low fertility in the central and western regions, very low fertility in the east and extremely low fertility in the northeast. Except for a rebound in a few provinces and regions with extremely low fertility rates, the ratio of actual fertility rates to policy fertility rates is still falling. The reduced fertility rate is mainly driven by development, notably the proportion of the total population represented by the exuberantly fertile women of child-bearing age and their greater urbanization, growing level of non-agricultural employment and outflow from rural areas, as well as the assimilative effect of urban production, lifestyles and cultural concepts upon the agricultural population. Development has catalyzed an irreversible trend of declining fertility; existing fertility policy has proven insufficient to keep fertility rates stable at reasonably low levels. Policy-based rebounds may emerge in urban areas and the east and northeast, where family planning policy has been better implemented; on the other hand, a non-policy-based rebound may have been released. In the central and western rural areas, multiple births occur on average among only 4.12 percent of the younger generation of women. As fertility policy is adjusted and improved, fertility rebounds in transitional fertility policy adjustment can be effectively regulated through a gradual strategy which will not provoke a sharp rebound. The time is ripe for China to conduct a nationally unified adjustment of the existing fertility policy.     

The relation between population and health in a crisis

This work argues that the economic crisis in Latin America resulting from structural adjustment programs and recession has had deleterious effects on the relationship between demographic factors and health. 2 works presented at the 1989 International Union for the Scientific Study of Population meeting in New Delhi considered the difficulty of demonstrating unambiguously the demographic effects of the economic crisis. This work, instead of looking at overall rates which may not have been greatly affected, focuses on 3 specific areas that reflect the relationship between population and health in the context of the crisis. Although the infant mortality rate has continued to decline in almost all countries and regions of Latin America during the crisis, the decline has been unequal in different sectors. A comparison of data from the 1987 National Survey of Fertility and Health in Mexico with that of the 1982 National Demographic Survey shows that rural infant mortality declined by only 1% between the 2 surveys, while urban infant mortality declined by 21%. An indicator of available services in the household showed the same increase inequality. Disaggregation of infant mortality data for Mexico suggests that even a presumably biological determinant, maternal age, loses much of its weight when socioeconomic factors are considered. Other studies, on the impact of maternal education, similarly indicate that the relationship is different for different social sectors. The infant mortality data taken together suggest that infant mortality continues to ba a valid indicator of social inequality, and that the crisis has had the effect of increasing inequality and worsening the relative conditions of the least advantaged. In the area of fertility, data from the 1989 National Survey of Fertility and Health in Mexico are used to argue that family planning programs are integral components of an authoritarian governmental political style. The survey indicated that sterilization is now the most commonly used contraceptive method in Mexico and that fully 12.4% of sterilized women did not make the decision to be sterilized themselves. 34% of illiterate women who were sterilized did not make the decision themselves. 14% of all the women but 33% of illiterate women reported they would not be sterilized if they could make the decision again. These data and others on the high proportion of women who undergo sterilization at young ages and low parities and without being informed of other methods suggest that the attitude of the official family planning program is becoming more authoritarian and less respectful of human rights as it seeks to curb population growth. The area of health effects has usually been ignored in migration studies. The phenomenon of Mexican migrant workers in the US who return to Mexico after contracting AIDS is an obvious example of the link between population variables and health.     

China's Pro-Poor Growth: Measurement and Implications

ABSTRACT. Pro-poor growth has been the preeminent strategic framework of the international development community because it describes relationships between growth, inequality, and poverty. Assessing whether economic growth and income distributional changes are “pro-poor” has important policy implications and has become increasingly widespread in academic and policy societies. The article aims to measure the pro-poor growth in rural China from 1989 to 2009 through analyzing the household survey data collected by the China Health and Nutrition Survey. Among the main findings, from 1989 to 2006, China's economic growth in rural areas was relatively weakly pro-poor and poverty reduction mainly relied on the “trickle-down effect” of economic growth. However, since 2006, both the “trickle-down effect” of growth and changes in income distribution have reduced poverty. During this period, Chinese economic growth was pro-poor. Research on pro-poor growth based on more comprehensive data is urgently needed to advise policymakers to make relevant policies.     

Evaluation of Fertility Levels and Adjustment of Fertility Policy： Based on the Current Situation of the Chinese Mainland＇s Provincial Fertility Levels

“十一五”期间我国大陆的总和生育率为1．481,呈稳中有降态势,形成了“中、西部中度低水平,东部深度低水平,东北极度低水平”的空间格局。除少数极低生育率省区回升外,实际生育率及其与政策生育率的比值仍在下降。生育率下降的主要推动力是发展,突出表现为生育旺盛期育龄妇女比总人口和育龄妇女的城镇化、非农化水平高、人口外出流动比例大,以及城镇生产、生活方式和文化观念对农业人口的同化作用。发展促使生育率下降的趋势已不可逆转。现行生育政策难以使生育率稳定在合理的低水平。有可能引起政策性反弹的重点在计划生育基础较好的城镇和东部及东北地区;有可能引起非政策性反弹的势能,已基本释放;中、西部农村年轻一代妇女多胎生育平均只有4．12％。生育政策调整完善中的生育率反弹可通过渐进式策略实施有效调控,不会引起生育率大幅强烈反弹。我国生育政策全国统一调整时机已成熟。     

Academic Affiliations of Social Work Journal Article Authors from 1999–2003

Abstract

The academic affiliations of the authors of all articles published between 1999 and 2003 in six major social work journals were tabulated to produce a ranking of the colleges and universities whose faculty made the most substantive contributions to the social work literature. The results of this analysis are compared with findings of four identical, previously published studies, which cover the five-year periods of 197–1983, 1984–1988, 1989–1993, and 1994–1998. The limitations of this method of analysis are discussed, as are its merits.