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1.
Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, we assess the accuracy of subjective beliefs about mortality and objectively
estimated probabilities for individuals in the same sample. Overall, subjective beliefs and objective probabilities are very close. However, there are differences conditional
on behaviors, with current smokers being relatively optimistic and never smokers relatively pessimistic in their assessments.
In the aggregate, individuals accurately predict longevity, but at the individual level, subjective beliefs provide information
in addition to the estimated objective probabilities in predicting actual events, which may arise from the effect of past
or anticipated decisions on these beliefs.
相似文献
Frank SloanEmail: |
2.
The paper reports the results of a survey designed to elicit probability judgements for different types of events: ‘pure chance’
events, for which objective probabilities can be calculated; ‘public’ events, about which there may be some discussion in
social groups and the media; and ‘personal’ events, such as those relating to crime or accidental injury. Even among respondents
deemed to be ‘well-calibrated’ in the domain of pure chance events we find limited sensitivity to the ‘temporal scope’ of
public and personal events—this being especially marked for personal events. We discuss possible reasons and some implications
for policy-related survey work.
相似文献
Graham LoomesEmail: |
3.
Eliciting decision weights by adapting de Finetti’s betting-odds method to prospect theory 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Enrico Diecidue Peter P. Wakker Marcel Zeelenberg 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2007,34(3):179-199
This paper extends de Finetti’s betting-odds method for assessing subjective beliefs to ambiguous events. Thus, a tractable
manner for measuring decision weights under ambiguity is obtained. De Finetti’s method is so transparent that decision makers
can evaluate the relevant tradeoffs in complex situations. The resulting data can easily be analyzed, using nonparametric
techniques. Our extension is implemented in an experiment on predicting next-day’s performance of the Dow Jones and Nikkei
stock indexes, where we test the existence and nature of rank dependence, finding usual patterns. We also find violations
of rank dependence.
相似文献
Peter P. WakkerEmail: URL: http://www.few.eur.nl/few/people/wakker/ |
4.
Matthew E. Kahn 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2007,35(1):17-43
Unexpected events such as environmental catastrophes capture wide public attention. Soon after five major shocks—Three Mile
Island, Love Canal, Bhopal, Chernobyl, and the Exxon Valdez oil spill—Congress voted on new risk regulation. This paper conducts
an event study to test whether individual congressional representatives were “shocked” by these environmental disasters into
increasing their probability of voting in favor of risk legislation. On average, representatives were less likely to vote
in favor of bills tied to these five events. Significant heterogeneity in representatives’ responses to these shocks is documented.
Liberal Northeast representatives were most likely to increase their pro-environment voting in the aftermath of these shocks.
相似文献
Matthew E. KahnEmail: |
5.
Nathalie Etchart-Vincent 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2009,39(1):45-63
The main goal of the experimental study described in this paper is to investigate the sensitivity of probability weighting
to the payoff structure of the gambling situation—namely the level of consequences at stake and the spacing between them—in the loss domain. For that purpose, three kinds of gambles are introduced: two kinds of homogeneous gambles
(involving either small or large losses), and heterogeneous gambles involving both large and small losses. The findings suggest
that at least for moderate/high probability of loss do both ‘level’ and ‘spacing’ effects reach significance, with the impact
of ‘spacing’ being both opposite to and stronger than the impact of ‘level’. As compared to small-loss gambles, large-loss
gambles appear to enhance probabilistic optimism, while heterogeneous gambles tend to increase pessimism.
相似文献
Nathalie Etchart-VincentEmail: |
6.
The problem of asymmetric information causes a winner’s curse in many environments. Given many unsuccessful attempts to eliminate
it, we hypothesize that some people ‘prefer’ the lotteries underlying the winner’s curse. Study 1 shows that after removing
the hypothesized cause of error, asymmetric information, half the subjects still prefer winner’s curse lotteries, implying
past efforts to de-bias the winner’s curse may have been more successful than previously recognized since subjects prefer
these lotteries. Study 2 shows risk-seeking preferences only partially explain lottery preferences, while non-monetary sources
of utility may explain the rest. Study 2 suggests lottery preferences are not independent of context, and offers methods to
reduce the winner’s curse.
相似文献
Robert Slonim (Corresponding author)Email: |
7.
Individuals’ perception of their own road-traffic and overall mortality risks are examined in this paper. Perceived risk is
compared with the objective risk of the respondents’ peers, i.e. their own gender and age group, and the results suggest that
individuals’ risk perception of their own risk is biased. For road-traffic risk we obtain similar results to what have been
found previously in the literature, overassessment and underassessment among low- and high-risk groups, respectively. For
overall risk we find that all risk groups underestimate their risk. The results also indicate that men's risk bias is larger
than women’s.
相似文献
Henrik AnderssonEmail: |
8.
Dinky Daruvala 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2007,35(3):265-283
This paper reports results from an economic experiment where respondents are asked to make choices between risky outcomes
for themselves and others. We investigate whether subjects’ own risk preferences and gender stereotypes are reflected in the
predictions they make for the risk preferences of others and the way this occurs. When predicting other people’s risk preferences,
the respondents tend to use a combination of their own risk preferences and stereotypes. Moreover, when making risky choices
for others, the respondents generally use a combination of their own risk preferences and their average predicted risk preference
of the targeted group.
相似文献
Dinky DaruvalaEmail: |
9.
10.
Jinkwon Lee 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2008,36(1):19-41
We experimentally investigate the effect of an independent and exogenous background risk to initial wealth on subjects’ risk
attitudes and explore an appropriate incentive mechanism when identical or similar tasks are repeated in an experiment. Taking
a simple chance improving decision model under risk where the winning probabilities are negatively related to the potential
gain, we find that such a background risk tends to make risk-averse subjects behave more risk aversely. Furthermore, we find
that risk-averse subjects tend to show decreasing absolute risk aversion (DARA), and that a random round payoff mechanism
(RRPM) would control the possible wealth effect. This suggests that RRPM would be a better incentive mechanism for an experiment
where repetition of a task is used.
相似文献
Jinkwon LeeEmail: |
11.
This paper reports estimates for the ex ante tradeoffs for three specific homeland security policies that all address a terrorist attack on commercial aircraft with shoulder
mounted missiles. Our analysis focuses on the willingness to pay for anti-missile laser jamming countermeasures mounted on
commercial aircraft compared with two other policies as well as the prospect of remaining with the status quo. Our findings
are based a stated preference conjoint survey conducted in 2006 and administered to a sample from Knowledge Networks’ national
internet panel. The estimates range from $100 to $220 annually per household. Von Winterfeldt and O’Sullivan’s (2006) analysis
of the same laser jamming plan suggests that the countermeasures would be preferred if economic losses are above $74 billion,
the probability of attack is larger than 0.37 in 10 years, and if the cost of the measures is less than about $14 billion.
Our results imply that, using the most conservative of our estimates, a program with a cost consistent with their thresholds
would yield significant aggregate net benefits.
相似文献
V. Kerry SmithEmail: |
12.
Can ranking techniques elicit robust values? 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This paper reports two experiments which examine the use of ranking methods to elicit ‘certainty equivalent’ values. It investigates
whether such methods are able to eliminate the disparities between choice and value which constitute the ‘preference reversal
phenomenon’ and which thereby pose serious problems for both theory and policy application. The results show that ranking
methods are vulnerable to distorting effects of their own, but that when such effects are controlled for, the preference reversal
phenomenon, previously so strong and striking, is very considerably attenuated.
相似文献
Graham LoomesEmail: |
13.
Mohammed Abdellaoui Han Bleichrodt Olivier L’Haridon 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2008,36(3):245-266
This paper provides an efficient method to measure utility under prospect theory. Our method minimizes both the number of
elicitations required to measure utility and the cognitive burden for subjects, being based on the elicitation of certainty
equivalents for two-outcome prospects. We applied our method in an experiment and were able to replicate the main findings
on prospect theory, suggesting that our method measures what it is intended to. Our data confirmed empirically that risk seeking
and concave utility can coincide under prospect theory. Utility did not depend on the probability used in the elicitation,
which offers support for the validity of prospect theory.
相似文献
Olivier L’HaridonEmail: |
14.
Many decisions require tradeoffs over time and in the presence of risk. To examine interactions between risk and intertemporal
effects we developed a laboratory experiment. In the experiment, subjects choose between payoffs that take place at different
points in time. We find that very few subjects are consistently risk averse or risk loving. Instead, we find that subjects
are less patient in the presence of risk. We also find that increased risk decreases subjects’ patience levels. However, we
do not find evidence that the effect of risk on the intertemporal decision depends on the length of the temporal delay.
相似文献
Lisa R. AndersonEmail: |
15.
In two experiments conducted with low-income participants, we find that individuals are more likely to buy state lottery tickets
when they make several purchase decisions one-at-a-time, i.e. myopically, than when they make one decision about how many
tickets to purchase. These results extend earlier findings showing that “broad bracketing” of decisions encourages behavior
consistent with expected value maximization. Additionally, the results suggest that the combination of myopic decision making
and the “peanuts effect”—greater risk seeking for low stakes than high stakes gambles—can help explain the popularity of state
lotteries.
相似文献
George LoewensteinEmail: |
16.
People violate expected utility theory and this has been traditionally modeled by augmenting its weight-and-add framework
by nonlinear transformations of values and probabilities. Yet individuals often use one-reason decision-making when making
court decisions or choosing cellular phones, and institutions do the same when creating rules for traffic safety or fair play
in sports. We analyze a model of one-reason decision-making, the priority heuristic, and show that it simultaneously implies
common consequence effects, common ratio effects, reflection effects, and the fourfold pattern of risk attitude. The preferences
represented by the priority heuristic satisfy some standard axioms. This work may provide the basis for a new look at bounded
rationality.
相似文献
Konstantinos V. KatsikopoulosEmail: |
17.
Prospect theory for continuous distributions 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
We extend the original form of prospect theory by Kahneman and Tversky from finite lotteries to arbitrary probability distributions,
using an approximation method based on weak-⋆ convergence. The resulting formula is computationally easier than the corresponding
formula for cumulative prospect theory and makes it possible to use prospect theory in future applications in economics and
finance. Moreover, we suggest a method how to incorporate a crucial step of the “editing phase” into prospect theory and to
remove in this way the discontinuity of the original model.
相似文献
Mei Wang (Corresponding author)Email: |
18.
A unified parameterization of an expected utility model corrected for regret and disappointment effects is presented, constrained
to conform to a well-known choice pattern, the common consequence effect, a special case of the Allais paradox. For choices
subject to regret and disappointment effects to be consistent with this choice pattern, the function that corrects the utility
of the obtained outcome has to have a positive second derivative for its regret component and a negative second derivative
for its disappointment component. These hypothesized functional forms make predictions about the relative effect that small
vs. large differences between obtained and alternative outcomes should have on people’s experiences of regret or disappointment.
相似文献
Elke U. WeberEmail: |
19.
Anna Alberini Stefania Tonin Margherita Turvani Aline Chiabai 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2007,34(2):155-178
We use conjoint choice questions to investigate the preferences of people in four cities in Italy for income and future/permanent
mortality risk reductions delivered by contaminated site remediation policies. The VSL is €5.6 million for an immediate risk
reduction. If the risk reduction takes place 20 years from now, the implied VSL is €1.26 million. Respondents’ implicit discount
rate is 7%. The VSL depends on respondent characteristics, familiarity with contaminated sites, concern about the health effects
of exposure to toxicants, having a family member with cancer, perceived usefulness of public programs and beliefs about the
goals of government remediation programs.
相似文献
Anna AlberiniEmail: |
20.