Characterizing private investments and implications for poverty reduction and natural resource management in Laos

We examine the patterns and characteristics of private investment in Laos, and how these evolve in relation to the Lao government's investment incentive policies in particular, and the wider State policies in general. Our goals are to: (1) systematically describe and analyze the patterns and characteristics of private investment in the country, and (2) analyze investment outcomes in terms of economic growth, poverty reduction and livelihoods. We argue that while private investments in the resource sector have contributed to economic growth, they have also negatively impacted local resources and communities. From a policy perspective, we highlight the need to examine the actual significance of policy incentives provided by the Lao government, especially with regard to its ability to direct investment decisions, in terms of both geography and sector.     

Effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Investment and Economic Growth: Evidence from Pakistan

The relationship between macroeconomic uncertainty, investment and economic growth is an empirical issue in developing countries. This paper investigates the effects of macroeconomic uncertainty on investment and economic growth in Pakistan for the period 1975–2008 by using the accelerator model of investment and endogenous growth model. The conditional variances, directly estimated through the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model is utilized for erecting the uncertainty variables related to fiscal policy, openness and foreign capital inflows. The results clearly indicate that the macroeconomic uncertainty have significant negative effects on investment and per capita income of Pakistan. We conclude that a reduction in macroeconomic uncertainty through appropriate fiscal and monetary policy, stability in capital inflows and improved trade performance could result in high investment and sustainable economic growth in the country.     

增长、就业与社会支出——关于社会政策的“常识”与反“常识”

经济发展和社会政策的关系在学界和公共平台一直争论不休。主流观点认为,社会政策汲取的税收会扭曲市场激励机制,而且通过提供慷慨的保障弱化了劳动者的工作动机,进而对就业产生负面影响。此外,社会支出具有刚性,难以控制。本文回顾了国内外现有的理论和经验研究,分析了社会政策与经济发展、社会保护与就业的关系,以及社会支出是否可控三个议题,从而否定了社会政策是短视国策的看法。历经30多年高速增长的中国,财富与矛盾都在积聚,未来的发展和稳定不可能继续依赖海量的投资和不稳定的外部需求。通过系统化的社会保护体制建设,将社会保障视为一种投资而非纯粹的耗费,中国可望走向更具韧性和更为人性的稳定状态。     

Predicting State Investment in Medicaid Home- and Community-Based Services, 2000–2011

Although state use of Medicaid home- and community-based services (HCBS) to provide long-term services and supports to older adults and individuals with physical disabilities continues to increase, progress is uneven across states. We used generalized linear models to examine state factors associated with increased allocation of Medicaid dollars to HCBS for the period 2000 to 2011. We observed enhanced growth in states that began the period with limited investment in HCBS, as reflected in significant year trends among these states. The political environment appeared to be an important influence on states’ investment for states with limited initial allocation to HCBS, as was housing affordability, a policy amenable variable. There continues to be wide variation in states’ relative investment, calling for additional policy attention and research.     

Investment and Competition Policy in the WTO: Issues for Developing Countries

This article uses the case of trade‐related investment measures (TRIMs) to examine the liberalisation of investment and its potential impact on developing countries. Very few developing countries actually use TRIMs to any appreciable degree, but, when taken in conjunction with the broader liberalisation of investment, the 1994 TRIMs Agreement has significant implications that will constrain governments’ policy options and require issues of competition policy to be addressed. Multilateral competition policy would be difficult to agree and implement and the article considers alternative strategies that developing countries could adopt.     

PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE MAINTENANCE AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH

When considering how to allocate scarce resources for the development of public infrastructure, many countries have a tendency to neglect maintenance in favor of new infrastructure investment projects. We examine the role of maintenance expenditures on output and on the distribution of wealth in a heterogeneous agents model. In our model, maintenance affects the quality of existing infrastructure and thus the flow of services derived from it. Furthermore, maintenance expenditures also affect the depreciation rates of both public infrastructure and private capital. We calibrate our model to Mexico and consider several policies that increase the flow of resources to infrastructure and find that a policy that allocates all additional resources to new investment is dominated by policies that allocate at least some of the additional resources to maintenance. Specifically, focusing all additional resources on maintenance is shown to generate the largest reduction in inequality, while a more balanced policy that increases both investment and maintenance maximizes output growth. (JEL E00, E62, H54)     

Taking risks in investing in the equity market: racial and ethnic differences

Some policy makers and policy analysts have proposed that Social Security should be privatized to enable participants to achieve higher returns through investment in the stock market. How well individual retirees would fare financially under a privatized system largely depends on their decision to invest in the equity market, rather than in other types of investment vehicles. For that reason, it is important to investigate the degree to which minority people are currently investing in this market. This article presents the findings of a study that compared the investment behavior of black and Hispanic people aged 51 to 61 with the investment behavior of their white counterparts. The major findings indicate that black and Hispanic people: (a) are less likely to invest in the equity market than are white people, and (b) tend to invest smaller percentages of their assets in the equity market. Implications for policy are discussed.     

Parental monetary investments in children: A focus on China

In 1979, China began the one child per couple policy throughout the country. In spite of the controversial issues of voluntary participation, the one-child policy has substantially reduced Chinese population growth. How might the policy affect parents' investiment in their children? This article attempts to study paretns' monetary investment in their children in four provinces of China using two-stage least squares procedure based on a survey of 4,000 Chinese children collected in 1990. This study shows that (a) the more children there are in a family, the less the parents invest in each of them; (b) parents seem to treat boys and girls differently; (c) although parents in rural areas invest less in absolute yuan terms, they invest a larger share of their income in their children than do their urban counterparts; (d) the presence of grandparent(s) seems to increase parents' monetary investment in their children; and (e) sibling structure is an important determinant in parents' investment decisions. Last, but not least, it is necessary to use different measures of parents' monetary investment to reveal a more complete and less biased picture of parental investment in children.     

Social capital: An analysis of factors influencing investment

This paper investigates how individual and community characteristics affect individual social capital investment behavior. We assume a representative individual maximizes her net benefits from social capital by choosing the amount of social capital investment in each period of her lifecycle. The model parameters are estimated by fitting the model to observed data using computational techniques. Simulations determine how perturbations to individual and community characteristics affect individual social capital behavior. The results suggest that social capital investment occurs irrespective of future benefits, personal characteristics affect the level and variance of investment, and institutions matter in determining social capital investment behavior.     

Work and Family Research in the First Decade of the 21st Century

Scholarship on work and family topics expanded in scope and coverage during the 2000–2010 decade, spurred by an increased diversity of workplaces and of families, by methodological innovations, and by the growth of communities of scholars focused on the work‐family nexus. We discuss these developments as the backdrop for emergent work‐family research on six central topics: (a) gender, time, and the division of labor in the home; (b) paid work: too much or too little; (c) maternal employment and child outcomes; (d) work‐family conflict; (e) work, family, stress, and health; and (f) work‐family policy. We conclude with a discussion of trends important for research and suggestions about future directions in the work‐family arena.     

土耳其对非洲地区的经贸合作

土非经贸合作近年发展迅速,引起国际社会广泛关注。这在很大程度上源于土耳其自1998年以来的一系列政策改革和相应的机制平台建设。但需要指出的是,尽管土非贸易、投资和援助都增长迅速,但土耳其对非政策改革和机制平台建设的政策效果尚未完全显现,主要因为土非经贸合作起点较低,量的增长并未导致质的变化,特别是土非贸易在土耳其对外贸易中所占的比重变化不大。因此,未来的土非经贸合作还有很大的提升空间,尽管土耳其对非政策的内部逻辑尚有待完善。     

INSTITUTIONS, INVESTMENT, AND GROWTH: NEW CROSS-COUNTRY AND PANEL DATA EVIDENCE

This paper outlines the alternative channels through which institutions affect growth, and studies the empirical relationship between institutions, investment, and growth. The empirical results indicate that (i) free-market institutions have a positive effect on growth; (ii) economic freedom affects growth through both a direct effect on total factor productivity and an indirect effect on investment; (iii) political and civil liberties may stimulate investment; (iv) an important interaction exists between freedom and human capital investment; (v) Milton Friedman's conjectures on the relation between political and economic freedom are correct; (vi) promoting economic freedom is an effective policy toward facilitating growth and other types of freedom. ( JEL O17, O40, P51)     

VELOCITY FUTURES MARKETS: DOES THE FED NEED A STRUCTURAL MODEL?

Previous proposals suggesting monetary policy makers target private-sector forecasts have been shown to be problematic. As policy becomes more effective, private-sector forecasts become less informative. Under perfect stabilization private-sector forecasts provide no useful guidance to monetary policy makers about economic shocks. We illustrate a way around this circularity problem by creating a policy futures market linked to the ratio of the (realization of the) policy goal for next period and the current instrument setting. The implication is that extensive information gathering is unnecessary, weakening the argument that central banks need a structural model to conduct policy. (JEL E52, E44, E42 )     

Challenging the inevitability of rural decline: Advancing the policy of place in northern British Columbia

In current policy discourse, rural decline is often described as an inevitable process associated with such broader structural trends as globalization and urbanization. The purpose of this paper is to challenge the supposed inevitability of rural decline in northern British Columbia (BC), Canada. We argue that rural decline in northern BC has been facilitated through an intentional policy program that views hinterland areas as a ‘resource bank’ from which to fund provincial infrastructure and services, without adequate attention to rural reinvestment. We highlight the potential discrepancies of this approach through a comparative study of two development eras in the province. In the first era, we examine the policies and development approach adopted by the W.A.C. Bennett provincial government, which governed from 1952 to 1972. We argue that the Bennett regime confronted the complexity of the post-war era with a comprehensive vision and coordinated policy program for ‘province building’ through intensive investments in industrial expansion and community infrastructure throughout the BC hinterland. By comparison, the post-1980s era in BC has witnessed a continuation of the resource bank approach, minus a concomitant commitment to hinterland investment. Reversing the inevitability of rural decline requires a renovation of the investment orientation witnessed during the Bennett era through an appreciation of the role of place in economic development. Our recommendations for renewed rural development in northern BC are drawn from a synthesis of the Bennett lessons with those emerging within place-based development literature.     

Production as social change: Policy sociology as a public good

ABSTRACT

Burawoy described two ways sociology can aid the public, through: (1) instrumental (policy) sociology and (2) reflexive (public) sociology. This article elaborates the different assumptions of how social change occurs according to policy and public sociology (and how sociology effects social change). Policy sociology assumes social change occurs through the scientific elaboration of the best means to achieve goals. However, policy sociology largely takes the public as an object of power rather than subjects who can utilize scientific knowledge. Public sociology assumes that social change occurs through the exposure of contradictions in goals, which elaborates better goals. However, the elaboration of contradictions assumes that there is a fundamental thesis/antithesis in society. If there are multiple goals/theses, public sociology fails in at least three ways. Policy sociology, when reflexively selecting its public, provides the best way sociology can aid the public.     

MANAGING RISK TAKING WITH INTEREST RATE POLICY AND MACROPRUDENTIAL REGULATIONS

We develop a model in which a financial intermediary's investment in risky assets—risk taking—is excessive due to limited liability and deposit insurance, and characterize the policies that implement efficient risk taking. In the calibrated model, combining interest rate policy with state‐contingent macroprudential regulations—either capital or leverage regulation, and a tax on profits—achieves efficiency. Interest rate policy mitigates excessive risk taking by altering the return and the supply of collateralizable safe assets. In contrast to commonly used capital regulation, leverage regulation has stronger effects on risk taking and calls for higher interest rates. (JEL E44, E52, G11, G18)     

OPTIMAL ENFORCEMENT OF NONCOMPETE COVENANTS

Noncompete covenants or covenant not to compete (CNC) are clauses in employment contracts in which the employee agrees not to gain employment with a competitor firm. In this article, we study the efficiency aspects of such contracts by incorporating the effect of labor mobility restrictions on knowledge transfer across firms, investment decisions by firms, and investment by workers. Following research that shows state‐wise variations in the degree of CNC enforcement, we allow the strength of CNC enforcement to vary as a matter of regulatory policy and derive the optimal strength of enforcement. We also look at how regulations around CNCs should be optimally designed when employers can use collusive agreements, such as “no poaching” agreements, as an alternative to noncompete clauses. Given recent allegations of employer collusion among large Silicon Valley firms, we argue for a cautious approach in designing policies on CNC enforcement. (JEL J24, J41, J63, K31)     

Micro‐investment perspective and the potential of the universal basic income

The article evaluates prospects of the Basic Income (BI) as a development policy tool. While BI is a relatively new initiative within development policy, the article argues that it should be seen as a serious option in the future, given the changing geography of poverty and the findings from existing cash transfer schemes. The analysis is carried out as a synthesis of existing findings on BI pilot programmes, along with cash transfer instruments more generally. While not including new empirical data, the synthesis allows preliminary estimates on the likely impacts of abolishing conditioning and targeting in cash transfer schemes. Particular attention is paid to the notion of micro‐investment and the psychological conditions of micro‐investment.     

全球化竞争下我国创新型中小企业发展的挑战和对策

中小企业对于经济增长和就业的贡献早已成为各界的共识。在当前应对国际金融危机中,政府调动各方面力量帮助中小企业度过融资难的困境,无疑是及时和必要的。但中小企业面临的困难决不仅仅体现在融资方面,更体现在产业、税收、投资等各方面受到的政策歧视。我国经济要想走出危机的阴影,必须立足于经济转型,而转型则离不开民间投资的启动和中小企业的真正复苏。在此过程中,创新型中小企业应当受到特别的关注和重视。本报告的主张是：创新型中小企业的健康发展是我国赢得未来全球竞争的关键。我国还存在着诸多影响创新型中小企业健康发展的制度和政策性障碍,应当把发展创新型中小企业提升到国家战略层面,形成清晰完整的发展思路和目标,并通过制度创新和重点政策的突破,推进创新型中小企业的全面繁荣和发展。     

Welfare,child support and family formation

This article provides preliminary tests of the hypothesis that welfare and child support policies designed to accommodate the needs of women (and children) impoverished by fathers who discontinue financial support of children following marital dissolution, have adverse effects on family formation among young unwed parents who were poor even before their children were born. The tests are preliminary because there is too little variation among our policy variables to control for selection. We derive a generalized logit model of the mother' planned and actual family formation outcomes, allowing for her to choose no father involvement, father involvement, co-habitation, and marriage. We estimate this model using baseline data (seven cities) of the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study. The results indicate that more generous welfare benefits and aggressive child support enforcement, increase the odds that disadvantaged unwed mothers' will move from to more stable planned and actual family formation (father involvement, co-habitation, marriage) with the fathers of their children. Besides the effects of these direct policy variables, the fathers employment status, which could also be influenced by policy, also has a large, positive effect on mothers' planned and actual family formation.