Parameters of Household Composition as Demographic Measures

Cross-sectional data, such as Census statistics, enable the re-enactment of household lifecourse through the construction of the household composition matrix, a tabulation of persons in households by their age and bythe age of their corresponding household-heads. Household lifecourse is represented in the household composition matrix somewhat analogously to survivorship in a life-table in demography. A measure of household lifecourse is the average household size, specific to age of household-head. Associated with the age-specific household size is the age-interval 0–4, which yields average number of children present in households, also by age of head. Trajectories of re-enacted household lifecourses for Phoenix and for the State ofArizona are depicted here to track the gamma probability density function. Through this relationship also the association between household size, children per household, and fertility emerges. To the extent that housing conditions or tenure impact average household size, or other aspects of household composition, fertility in particular is discerned as a housing- related demographic attribute of households. Household size and headship ratio, both specific to age of head, are here shown to be analytically related to the household composition matrix, their product yielding the age-specific headship coefficient. As a measure incorporating parameters of households and dwellers, thus also characterizingoccupied dwellingunits, the headshipcoefficient emerges as a demographic indicator of housing in a community.     

A problem in household composition

"Distinction made between household-persons and household-markers [the person who identifies the family or household as a unit] is formalized in the notion of nested populations. This leads to an extension of the Leslie model into a formulation of growth for both population and households. The extended model involves the matrix presentation of household composition where ratios of household-persons who are age 0, per household-marker, function as surrogate values for fertility rates. The extended model describes change over time in the distribution of population by age, and in the distribution of households by age of household-marker, or household-head. The model involves the inversion of a nonnegative matrix, and is feasible only if it yields, projected over time, nonnegative entries in vectors representing distribution of population by age, and distribution of household-heads by age. Conditions for the feasibility of the extended model are discussed, and a sufficient condition for feasibility over a single interval is identified." (SUMMARY IN FRE)     

Trajectories of Fertility and Household Composition in the Demographic Profile of the Czech Republic

The household composition matrix is a representation of the demographic structure of households, specific to age groups of household members and household heads. As such, the matrix reflects also the environmental conditions, housing in particular, that mould households' demographic structure. By specifically depicting the presence of children in households, household composition could be viewed as gauging fertility within the context of housing conditions. This stance is examined in an application to Czech census data for the year 1991, at the commencement of an intense process of socio-economic transformation that accompanied the collapse of communism across Eastern Europe. Within this process, housing had an inadvertent impact upon the structure of households in general, and upon fertility decline in particular. By using the standard matrix representation of household composition, correspondence between trajectories of age-specific fertility and household composition emerge throughout the Czech Republic. This correspondence illustrates the potential household composition analysis carries for fertility measurement and estimation in rapidly changing economic environments.     

Household structure and housing needs

This paper is mainly derived from the material presented in the preceding article by S. P. Brown. Indeed, while the previous analysis is of considerable intrinsic interest, the hypothetical population was constructed and its family distribution was shown for the purpose of providing a basis for estimates of housing needs. For several reasons it appeared to be essential to have such a basis. First, any housing programme has to take the future, as well as the present, distribution of households by type and size into account. Secondly, such a programme has to be designed so as not to prevent household formation—there should be dwellings for all potential households, so that involuntary doubling-up need not occur. Thirdly, most residential areas should have dwellings for an eventually stable population, that is, for one which has variety of age groups and of household types, and also fair stability of housing demand. Estimates of the distribution of potential ‘households’ could be derived from the ‘family’ distribution of the hypothetical population which reflects current demographic trends. Thus although this population is a ‘hypothetical’ one, it provides a realistic premise for considering housing needs, and because it is a ‘stationary’ one, it provides an especially suitable premise. Moreover, since the demographic characteristics of its ‘families’ and therefore of its potential households were established in far greater detail than has ever been the case in sample surveys of existing households, it was possible to classify households in the terms which appear to be most appropriate for the first draft of a housing programme, irrespective of social and economic variations in demand.

The first stage in following up Mr Brown's analysis was the conversion of ‘families’ into ‘households’. Two examples of the possible household distribution of the hypothetical population are presented. Example A, which gives a realistic, but not extreme, picture of the conversion of families into households, is used for the subsequent detailed analysis, while broader figures for distribution B are also included.

In the second stage the various types of household had to be distinguished. For estimating housing needs, two interrelated criteria of household classification are relevant—first, the stage in the life of a household, especially appropriate in considering space requirements; secondly, the age composition of households, which largely determines the type of dwelling needed.

The detailed distribution of households by size and type, based on this classification, is further translated into a distribution of dwellings by type and size. For this purpose, additional assumptions about the number of rooms and the type of dwelling needed by households of various types are introduced and applied to the hypothetical population, both to household distributions A and B. These assumptions are not based on accepted standards, nor do they suggest standards. They are merely used for the purpose of illustrating a possible method of estimating housing needs on the basis of a detailed picture of household structure. They are further designed to represent one possible compromise between economy in dwelling distribution, on the one hand, and flexibility of space for individual households, on the other.

In the final sections of the paper, the implications of the dwelling distributions here presented are discussed in relation to household mobility, and also with reference to the necessity for reconciling short-term and long-term housing needs in any housing programme.     

A combined Brass-random walk approach to probabilistic household forecasting: Denmark,Finland, and the Netherlands, 2011–2041

Probabilistic household forecasts to 2041 are presented for Denmark, Finland, and the Netherlands. Future trends in fertility, mortality and international migration are taken from official population forecasts. Time series of shares of the population in six different household positions are modelled as random walks with drift. Brass’ relational model preserves the age patterns of the household shares. Probabilistic forecasts for households are computed by combining predictive distributions for the household shares with predictive distributions of the populations, specific for age and sex. If current trends in the three countries continue, we will witness a development towards more and smaller households, often driven by increasing numbers of persons who live alone. We can be quite certain that by 2041, there will be between two and four times as many persons aged 80 and over who live alone when compared with the situation in 2011.     

The index of overall headship: A simple measure of household complexity standardized for age and sex

This paper develops and tests an age-sex standardized measure of household complexity, defined broadly as the tendency of adults (other than spouses) to head their own households or to share households. The aim is a measure of household complexity which can be computed with a minimum of demographic data, namely, data on number of households and on the population by age and sex. The procedure is similar to that of Coale for fertility measurement (Coale, 1969); it is a form of indirect standardization in which the actual number of households is related to the number that would exist if maximum age-sex-specific household headship rates were to apply. Various forms of this indirectly standardized measure show a correlation of better than 0.9 with directly standardized measures for a sample of 33 nations for which requisite data are available. The new measure promises to extend considerably the geographical and temporal range of comparable empirical measures of household complexity.     

Macro and micro contexts of dependency rates: An illustration with peruvian data

This research contributes to the academic dialogue about the socioeconomic significance of rapid population growth by examining changes in age composition and household structure during a transitional period of demographic change. Two propositions relating changes in the size and age composition of households to the demographic transition are formulated and tested using Peruvian census and survey data. Results show a systematic pattern of change wherein the average annual percent increase in the number of households offsets the rate of population growth when the disequilibrium between mortality and fertility rates is greatest. The translation of aggregate increase into households is mediated by shifts in the distribution of households by size. It is inappropriate to conclude that larger families necessarily have higher dependency burdens or that they are worse off in an economic sense compared to smaller households because increments in size are not automatically translated into equivalent increases in age or economic dependency. In part, this is due to the influence of extension patterns on the age and labor force composition of households. Policy implications and a research agenda are discussed in the concluding section.An earlier version was presented at the 7th National Meeting of the Latin American Studies Association, Houston, Texas, November 2–5, 1977. I gratefully acknowledge critical comments from Michael E. Conroy, Harley L. Browning, A. Eugene Havens, Halliman Winsborough, and two anonymous reviewers. Research support for this paper was provided by the College of Agricultural and Life Sciences.     

Changes in household formation and composition in China since the mid-twentieth century

China has experienced great changes in household formation and composition since the mid-twentieth century, and its mean size of households has fallen from 54 persons in 1947 to 3.1 in 2005. Many of these changes, especially those taking place in the early years of the People’s Republic, have not been systematically investigated. This paper examines the impact of China’s major political, social, demographic and economic changes on household formation and composition. The study shows that changes in Chinese households have not followed a simple linear trajectory, but shown, considerable fluctuations. A drastic increase in the number of households and a sharp reduction in the mean size of households were recorded after the land reform in the early 1950s. In the next twenty years, high fertility was promoted by a generally pronatalist environment, and the mean size of households increased. Since the early 1970s, the nationwide family planning campaign has led to a rapid fertility decline and great chanes in kinship structure. The recent rise in rural-urban migration has also resulted in many unprecedented changes, and they have become major forces affecting household formation and family life in contemporary China.     

Household size and composition in the developing world in the 1990s

This study uses data from recent household surveys in 43 developing countries to describe the main dimensions of household size and composition in the developing world. Average household size varies only modestly among regions, ranging from 5.6 in the Near East/North Africa to 4.8 in Latin America. These averages are similar to levels observed in the second half of the nineteenth century in Europe and North America. About four out of five members of the household are part of the nuclear family of the head of the household. Household size is found to be positively associated with the level of fertility and the mean age at marriage, and inversely associated with the level of marital disruption. An analysis of trends and differentials in household size suggests that convergence to smaller and predominantly nuclear households is proceeding slowly in contemporary developing countries.     

Family household and nuptiality changes: a search for some explanations from the recent past

Using the demographic transition framework as a basis for analysis, the author examines the levels, trends, and differentials in household size and structure in the Philippines. Time-series data on average household size from the censuses show that the changes observed over time are closely associated with or have run parallel to the shifts in mortality and fertility. Data from the 1968, 1973, and 1983 National Demographic Surveys revealed small increases in 1-person households, modest increases in small-sized and moderate-sized households, and substantial decreases in large-sized households. The data also disclosed structural shifts among various types of family households. Between 1968 and 1983, family households experienced increasing nuclearization. While expectation for support in old age has somewhat diminished recently, parents' preference to join their daughters will have the effect of increasing the opportunity of females to head households. More highly educated persons exhibited a greater tendency to head the bigger-sized, extended family household, although this has diminished somewhat lately. Increases in the age at 1st marriage of both males and females affect the life span of family households, especially nuclear households. A multivariate analysis using macrolevel data as inputs demonstrated the very strong influences of the factors of desirability of marriage, availability of mate, and urbanization on the marriage pattern. Enhancing employment opportunities and creating appropriate mechanisms through which present incomes may be increased in the hinterlands under various rural development programs may help to diminish the values attached to children. The provision of more and better facilities for higher education especially in the disadvantaged provinces will enable young people, especially females, to gain access to higher learning, thus providing alternatives to early marriage and childbearing.     

components of change in the number of households: 1970–1980

There was an increase from 62.8 to 79.1 million households in the United States during the 1970s. The number of households increased much more rapidly than the population. This paper decomposes this growth in the number of households into components associated with changing age and marital status composition and changing age by marital status-specific propensities to form households. About one-third of the increase in the number of households was due to increased age by marital status propensity to form households, and two-thirds was due to shifts in the age by marital status distribution and population growth. The increased propensity to form households had its major impact at ages under 35, and primarily among never-married persons. The composition component had its primary impact at ages 25–44 as a result of the baby boom, and also because of the increased fractions never married and separated and divorced.     

Old age and the demographic transition

Summary This paper examines the impact of the demographic transition upon the potential supply of, and demand for, family support for the aged in Australia. Using census and survey information on population cohorts entering old age, comparisons are drawn concerning their surviving issue, household composition and family membership. Long-term changes in fertility are shown to have had only a small impact upon the supply of potential carers among relatives and, although the demographic transition has led to a more universal inclusion of old people in family networks, there have not been major changes through time in the proportions living in extended family households. Short-term changes, however, such as low fertility during the 1930s, have caused disordered cohort flow, with the result that current generations of the elderly are members of deprived cohorts in terms of their access to family support.     

中国分代家庭户的空间分布特征研究

家庭是社会的基本组成单位,家庭户结构的变化直接影响到社会生活的各个方面,家庭户代际结构的分布则能从直观上认识家庭户结构。本文基于2000年第五次全国人口普查的分代家庭户数据及相关资料,以空间自相关分析为基础,对五普数据中的分代家庭户比例分布进行了初步分析。发现其空间分布特征呈现明显的正相关性。为了进一步研究这种空间分布,采用GIS方法得到分代家庭户比分布图,分析发现：二代户仍然是中国家庭户的主要模式;不同地区分代家庭户的分布呈现明显的差异,北方地区的二代户比例最高;三代户与四代以上户分布特征相似,主要集中在西南地区;分代家雇户的分布与绎济发展水平、宗教信仰和民族风俗密切相关．     

Post-War trends in Maori population growth

Abstract Recent levels and trends of mortality and fertility of the minority Maori population of New Zealand are analysed. On this basis two projections for the year 1976 are presented, the first assuming a further rise in life expectation, which has already increased rapidly over the last two decades; and the other that both mortality and the consistently high fertility levels will be reduced. The conclusion is that, regardless of which projection one accepts, growth will be rapid (an increase of 60% to 70% in the period 1961-76), although the age distribution will be different at the youngest ages. Unless fertility is reduced, as in Projection 2, the dependency burden of Maori family heads will be extremely heavy.     

Post-War trends in Maori population growth

Recent levels and trends of mortality and fertility of the minority Maori population of New Zealand are analysed. On this basis two projections for the year 1976 are presented, the first assuming a further rise in life expectation, which has already increased rapidly over the last two decades; and the other that both mortality and the consistently high fertility levels will be reduced. The conclusion is that, regardless of which projection one accepts, growth will be rapid (an increase of 60% to 70% in the period 1961–76), although the age distribution will be different at the youngest ages. Unless fertility is reduced, as in Projection 2, the dependency burden of Maori family heads will be extremely heavy.     

Farm Household Lifecycles and Land Use in the Ecuadorian Amazon

This paper describes trends in population, household formation, fragmentation of landholdings, and changes in land use between 1990 and 1999 in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon (NEA)—one of the areas of highest biodiversity in the world. It also shows how changes in land use are associated with the duration (or age) of the farm settlement, which is also linked to the stage in the farm household lifecycle and household composition. The study is based upon data from two detailed household surveys, which result in a cohort of 246 farm households interviewed in 1990 and 1999 as well as 383 new farm households constituted after 1990. Distinct patterns of land use are linked with duration of settlement, independent of when settlement occurred in the region.     

A VARYING-COEFFICIENT APPROACH TO ESTIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATION OF HOUSEHOLD SIZE

Household formation analysis is both a multidimensional economical and statistical problem of great complexity. Since most of the literature tries to incorporate multiple economic aspects, there is, considering the extraordinary practical relevance of the problem, a remarkable gap between theory and application in this field. This paper tries to diminish this gap by a comprehensive treatise on the statistical site of the problem. Thus, we develop a model of household composition, where the evolution of the household membership rates is captured by a logit link-function and a multinomial distribution, which automatically fulfills the non-negativity and adding-up restrictions of the underlying probabilities. We use a varying-coefficients procedure by polynomially smoothing the household membership rates over age for every household size class and assuming a linear predictor in other variables. As an application we estimated and extrapolated the distribution of household sizes of an autonomous region using population register data. Our sample consisted of approximately 450,000 people living in about 170,000 households, grouped into nine different household size classes and classified into age classes from 0 to 90. The data covers a time span of 12 years, from 1986 to 1997. Empirical results show the robustness of the procedure even in case of low cell frequencies. Thus, there is no need for regional or age-group aggregations.     

Empirical analysis of the contribution of age composition to population growth

The method of decomposition is applied to rates of natural increase in order to elucidate the role played by age composition in the growth of populations. A population’s age distribution and fertility schedule are contrasted to those in a "stationary" population having the same mortality rates and having a fertility schedule equal to that of the observed population divided by its net reproduction rate. In this manner it is shown that about one-quarter to one-third of the growth of most current high-growth populations can be attributed to non-stationarity of their age distributions. This fraction will rise, as it has in most industrialized countries, if fertility is reduced and age distributions become middle-heavy. In projections of the 1963 Venezuelan female population with fertility rates declining by 20/0 and 1% annually, more than half of the growth (in numbers) that occurs prior to zero-growth attainment is contributed by non-stationarity of its intervening age distributions.

     

U.S. Family Household Momentum and Dynamics: An Extension and Application of the ProFamy Method

The classic headship-rate method for demographic projections of households is not linked to demographic rates, projects a few household types without size, and does not deal with household members other than heads. By comparison, the ProFamy method uses demographic rates as input and projects more detailed household types, sizes, and living arrangements for all members of the population. Tests of projections from 1990 to 2000 using ProFamy and based on observed U.S. demographic rates before 1991 show that discrepancies between our projections and census observations in 2000 are reasonably small, validating the new method. Using data from national surveys and vital statistics, census microfiles, and the ProFamy method, we prepare projections of U.S. households from 2000 to 2050. Medium projections as well as projections based on smaller and larger family scenarios with corresponding combinations of assumptions of marriage/union formation and dissolution, fertility, mortality, and international migration are performed to analyze future trends of U.S. households and their possible higher and lower bounds, as well as enormous racial differentials. To our knowledge, the household projections reported in this article are the first to have found empirical evidence of family household momentum and to have provided informative low and high bounds of various indices of projected future households and living arrangements distributions based on possible changes in demographic parameters.