Accidents and Unpleasant Incidents: Worry in Transport and Prediction of Travel Behavior

Worry on nine different means of transport was measured in a Norwegian sample of 853 respondents. The main aim of the study was to investigate differences in worry about accidents and worry about unpleasant incidents, and how these two sorts of worry relate to various means of transport as well as transport behavior. Factor analyses of worry about accidents suggested a division between rail transport, road transport, and nonmotorized transport, whereas analyses of worry about unpleasant incidents suggested a division between transport modes where you interact with other people and "private" transport modes. Moreover, mean ratings of worry showed that respondents worried more about accidents than unpleasant incidents on private transport modes, and more about unpleasant incidents than accidents on public transport modes. Support for the distinction between worry about accidents and unpleasant incidents was also found when investigating relationships between both types of worry and behavioral adaptations: worry about accidents was more important than worry about unpleasant incidents in relation to behavioral adaptations on private means of transport, whereas the opposite was true for public means of transport. Finally, predictors of worry were investigated. The models of worry about accidents and worry about unpleasant incidents differed as to what predictors turned out significant. Knowledge about peoples' worries on different means of transport is important with regard to understanding and influencing transport and travel behavior, as well as attending to commuters' welfare.     

Determinants of Priority for Risk Reduction: The Role of Worry

One hundred twenty-two members (experts) of the Society for Risk Analysis completed a mailed questionnaire and 150 nonexperts completed a similar questionnaire on the World Wide Web. Questions asked included those about priorities on personal and government action for risk reduction, badness of the risk, number of people affected, worry, and probabilities for self and others. Individual differences in mean desire for action were largely explained in terms of worry. Worry, in turn, was largely affected by probability judgments, which were lower for experts than for nonexperts. Differences across risks in the desire for action, within each subject, were also determined largely by worry and probability. Belief in expert knowledge about the risk increased worry and the priority for risk reduction. A second study involving 91 nonexperts (42 interviewed and 49 on the Web) replicated the main findings for nonexperts from the first study. Interviews also probed the determinants of worry, attitudes toward government versus personal control, and protective behaviors.     

Risk Perception and Experience: Hazard Personality Profiles and Individual Differences

The dominance of the "psychometric" paradigm and the consequent emphasis on personality profiles of hazards has resulted in little attention being given to individual variability in risk judgments. This study examines how far differences in experience of risk activities can explain individual variability in risk assessments. A questionnaire study (n = 172) was used to explore the relationships between experience and risk perceptions in relation to 16 risk activities. It was expected that these relationships would differ for voluntary and involuntary activities. Measures of experience included assessments of "impact" and "outcome" valence as well as "frequency." These three aspects of experience each related to risk assessment but their relationship depended on whether the risk experiences were voluntary or not. The results indicate the importance of developing more fine-grained ways of indexing risk experience.     

What Risks Are People Concerned About

An unusual questionnaire was used to explore what risks concern laypeople. It asked respondents to list, in their own words, as many risks of personal concern as they could. They then selected the five risks of greatest concern and answered a set of specific questions about each. A coding scheme was developed for categorizing these responses and was shown to have good reliability. The questionnaire was administered to a heterogeneous convenience sample of subjects. They reported a very broad range of risks of concern, which differed in plausible ways as a function of their gender and age. Females and student-age subjects were generally more concerned about the environment, whereas males and older subjects were more likely to mention health and safety risks. Both the extent of the risk-reduction actions that they reported and their expressed willingness to pay for future risk reductions were greater for risk that presented a direct personal threat (e.g., health risks) than for risks that posed a diffuse threat to the environment or to people in general (e.g., pollution). Respondents perceived themselves as bearing primary responsibility for managing threats to their own health, but generally saw government as bearing a heavier responsibility for managing environmental risks (especially for pollutants) and war. The questionnaire instrument and coding structure developed for this work are well-suited to a variety of future research applications. They provide a way to identify the risks that concern lay groups, as well as to track the evolution of those concerns over time.     

Risk Perception and Technological Development at a Societal Level

This article tests the hypothesis that the exposure to the threat to societies posed by the introduction of new technologies is associated with a normalization of risk perception. Data collected in 2000 by the International Social Survey Programme (ISSP) on environmental issues were used to explore this hypothesis. Representative samples from 25 countries were employed to assess the national levels of perceived threat to the environment associated with a series of technologies and activities. These values were correlated with economic indicators (mainly from the World Bank) of the diffusion of each of the technologies or activities in each country. Results indicate a negative association of risk perception with the level of technological prevalence (societal normalization effect) and a positive association with the rate of growth of the technology (societal sensitivity effect). These results indicate that the most acute levels of perceived environmental risk are found in those countries where the level of technological prevalence is low but where there has recently been substantial technological development. Environmental awareness is a mediator of the relationship between risk perception and the indices of technological diffusion. This result means that: (1) societal normalization of risk is not a direct consequence of prevalence of the technology, but is driven by awareness of technological development and that (2) societal sensitivity to risk is associated with lower levels of environmental awareness.     

Persistent Risk-Related Worry as a Function of Recalled Exposure to the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Prior Trauma

Large oil spills are disasters associated with psychological effects for exposed communities. The amount of worry that individuals experience after a disaster may be influenced by many factors, such as the type and extent of exposure to disaster impacts, prior trauma, and sociodemographic characteristics. This study examined the nature and predictors of worry about ongoing impacts of the 2010 Deepwater Horizon (DH) oil spill reported by Gulf of Mexico coastal residents. A random sample of 2,520 adult residents of Gulf of Mexico coastal counties were administered a telephone survey in 2016, including items about persistent worry and exposure to DH impacts, prior trauma, residence at the time of the spill, and sociodemographic characteristics. Respondents varied in the amount of worry they reported about ongoing health, social, and economic impacts. Controlling for sociodemographic characteristics, higher exposure to the DH oil spill was related to higher levels of worry about ongoing impacts, with past traumatic events related specifically to worry about health impacts. Unexpectedly, those who moved into the region after the spill showed similar levels of worry to residents exposed to the spill, and higher levels than residents who did not recall being exposed to the DH oil spill. This study highlights the impact of the DH oil spill on coastal residents many years after the DH disaster. The findings underscore the need to examine multiple pathways by which individuals experience disasters and for risk researchers to close knowledge gaps about long-term impacts of oil spills within a multi-dimensional framework.     

Perception and Acceptance of Technological and Environmental Risks: Why Are Poor Countries Less Concerned?

The research has been aimed at answering two questions: (1) What factors impact perception and acceptance of technological and environmental hazards? (2) Why are rich societies involved more in protecting their environment and health than poor societies? Data has been collected from representative samples of two countries—Poland and Sweden. The results indicate that (1) contrary to earlier findings, the inverse relations between perceived benefits and dangers of hazards has not been observed, (2) acceptance of a risk has been mostly influenced by perceived benefits, (3) rejection of a risk has been mostly influenced by its perceived harmful consequences. Concerning the second question, it has been found that: (1) perceived hazard's danger and benefit is not the only factor that impacts its acceptance, and (2) a broader economic context can impact acceptance (tolerance) of hazards. It has been found that being aware of high dangers and not very high benefits of hazardous activities, Poles still have accepted them. Thus, Poles seem to follow an old proverb: “When one does not have what one likes, one has to like what one has.”     

Managing Logistics in Regional Banknote Supply Chain Under Security Concerns

We study the logistics problem faced by Regional Branches (RBs) of a central bank in managing the currency supply under security concerns. While making banknote supply decisions to Sub‐Branches (SBs), the management of RB must achieve two goals simultaneously: (i) guarantee that each SB has sufficient inventories of all denominations of banknotes to satisfy the demands from all commercial banks within its service area, and (ii) control the annual spending on this banknote supply operation. Due to security concerns, the following methods are implemented in the process of transporting banknotes: (i) the capacity of a cash truck is limited by the total face value (instead of the physical space) of banknotes, and (ii) empty decoy trucks are deployed along with the trucks filled with banknotes. After deriving a polynomial‐time strategy to guarantee an optimal solution for the special Bin‐Packing Problem faced in this study, we provide an exact formulation for the RB's supply planning problem. We also propose several polynomial‐time algorithms for deriving either optimal or near‐optimal solutions for the problem under different settings. Using the weekly demand data obtained from the central bank, we verify the performance of our algorithms, and analyze the impacts of changes in these features and in the fleet capacity on the total cost incurred by an RB under various scenarios.     

碳限额与碳交易机制下考虑公平关切的供应链定价与协调研究

供应链企业的公平关切是发展与维持良好供应链上下游合作关系的重要因素。面对消费者的低碳偏好与碳排放规制约束,供应链企业在确定最优定价与减排水平等运作决策时,常常表现较强的公平关切倾向。探究环保规制下公平关切如何影响供应链的运作决策,可以为供应链合作提供对策。本文在碳限额与碳交易机制下,研究了由公平关切制造商和公平关切零售商组成的低碳供应链的最优定价和碳减排率等决策,分析了公平关切对最优定价和碳减排水平及利润的影响,并讨论了收益共享-成本共担契约模型对供应链的协调性,最后通过数值仿真验证了主要结论。结果表明：(1)制造商和零售商都公平关切时,收益共享-成本共担契约的参数若满足一定条件,供应链可以实现协调。(2)批发价与制造商公平关切系数正相关,零售价与制造商和零售商公平关切系数都正相关;若制造商考虑零售商公平关切则批发价的变化取决于碳减排成本系数的大小,碳减排率与制造商和零售商的公平关切系数是负相关;若制造商忽视零售商的公平关切,则批发价仅受制造商自身公平关切的影响, 碳减排率与制造商公平关切负相关,与零售商公平关切无关。(3)制造商公平关切对双方利润具有负向影响,零售商公平关切对制造商利润也有负向影响,而零售商利润随自身公平关切的变化情况取决于制造商是否考虑其公平关切,若考虑则两者正相关,否则两者负相关。     

A Social-Cognitive Perspective of Terrorism Risk Perception and Individual Response in Canada

The volume of research on terrorism has increased since the events of September 11, 2001. However, efforts to develop a contextualized model incorporating cognitive, social-contextual, and affective factors as predictors of individual responses to this threat have been limited. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate a series of hypotheses drawn from such a model that was generated from a series of interviews with members of the Canadian public. Data of a national survey on perceived chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, and explosives (CBRNE) terrorism threat and preparedness were analyzed. Results demonstrated that worry and behavioral responses to terrorism, such as individual preparedness, information seeking, and avoidance behaviors, were each a function of cognitive and social-contextual factors. As an affective response, worry about terrorism independently contributed to the prediction of behavioral responses above and beyond cognitive and social-contextual factors, and partially mediated the relationships of some of these factors with behavioral responses. Perceived coping efficacy emerged as the cognitive factor associated with the most favorable response to terrorism. Hence, findings highlight the importance of fostering a sense of coping efficacy to the effectiveness of strategies aimed at improving individual preparedness for terrorism.     

Cancer Anxiety and the Perception of Risk in Alarmed Communities

Cancer is a significant public health topic and is frequently a factor in public reactions to environmental hazards. It may be reasonable to suggest that a unique form of health anxiety exists - one specific to cancer. In this article, we explore a measure of cancer anxiety that has applicability to risk perception in the specific context of communities that are alarmed over suspect cancer rates thought to be associated with environmental hazards. A literature search was used to identify survey questions previously used to measure cancer worry, fear, anxiety, etc. A list of 24 items was employed in a mail survey sent to 30 communities in which cancer rates were under investigation (part of a broader study). An analysis of the dataset of 1,111 responses yields two versions of a cancer anxiety scale: one an additive combination of 21 items (alpha= 0.77) and the other a two-factor model consisting of nine- and four-item subscales (alpha= 0.74 and 0.69). The resulting scales are evaluated for their ability to predict perception of risk from the environmental hazards in these cases. Controlling for age, sex, and cancer status, the scales explain between 2% and 10% of risk perception (full R(2) values ranging from 0.17 to 0.24). Given the range of concepts required to model risk perception, we conclude that this measure of cancer anxiety is sufficiently reliable and robust to be recommended for use in circumstances involving hazards associated with cancer. Other uses and further development of the measure are discussed.     

Why aren't managers concerned about occupational stress?

To explain the rarity of workplace stress management interventions, it is thought that managers are not concerned with the risks of occupational stress to health and job performance. Some writers consider either (1) deficiencies in theory, and/or (2) deficiencies in methodology to be the cause of this apparent lack of concern. The aim of this paper is to illustrate another perspective on this issue; that of risk perception. Two perspectives on risk perception are discussed; the psychometric view and the cultural view. The psychometric view suggests that senior managers may underestimate the risks associated with stress. The cultural view suggests that managers may consider stress management to be inappropriate, since individuals, not organizations, should be responsible for coping with stress. Both perspectives indicate that very few managers may consider stress to be a risk that should be actively managed by the organization. The associated disciplines of risk management and particularly risk communication are discussed to suggest ways to overcome lack of managerial interest in stress management.     

Why aren't managers concerned about occupational stress?

Abstract

To explain the rarity of workplace stress management interventions, it is thought that managers are not concerned with the risks of occupational stress to health and job performance. Some writers consider either (1) deficiencies in theory, and/or (2) deficiencies in methodology to be the cause of this apparent lack of concern. The aim of this paper is to illustrate another perspective on this issue; that of risk perception. Two perspectives on risk perception are discussed; the psychometric view and the cultural view. The psychometric view suggests that senior managers may underestimate the risks associated with stress. The cultural view suggests that managers may consider stress management to be inappropriate, since individuals, not organizations, should be responsible for coping with stress. Both perspectives indicate that very few managers may consider stress to be a risk that should be actively managed by the organization. The associated disciplines of risk management and particularly risk communication are discussed to suggest ways to overcome lack of managerial interest in stress management.     

Consumption Over the Life Cycle

This paper estimates a structural model of optimal life‐cycle consumption expenditures in the presence of realistic labor income uncertainty. We employ synthetic cohort techniques and Consumer Expenditure Survey data to construct average age‐profiles of consumption and income over the working lives of typical households across different education and occupation groups. The model fits the profiles quite well. In addition to providing reasonable estimates of the discount rate and risk aversion, we find that consumer behavior changes strikingly over the life cycle. Young consumers behave as buffer‐stock agents. Around age 40, the typical household starts accumulating liquid assets for retirement and its behavior mimics more closely that of a certainty equivalent consumer. Our methodology provides a natural decomposition of saving and wealth into its precautionary and life‐cycle components.     

考虑顾客行为与零售商公平关切的易逝品定价与供应链协调研究

本文在公平中性的供应商、公平关切的零售商和策略型与短视型顾客并存的供应链下,研究了零售商的最优定价与订货量及供应链的协调.研究发现,公平关切的零售商有提高产品价格和压低订货量的倾向;批发价契约难以实现供应链的协调;收益共享契约能实现供应链的完美协调.论文还讨论了零售商的公平关切程度和利润分享比例对供应商利润、零售商效用及供应链效用的影响.     

Risk Perception of the "Mad Cow Disease" in France: Determinants and Consequences

Since 1996, when bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) was assessed as a possible human transmissible disease, a variant of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD), French people have entered into a long period of fear and avoidance of beef and bovine byproducts, which produced an unprecedented collapse in the beef market. This article deals with the perceived risk of the "mad cow disease" (MCD) in the French general population. Two surveys were conducted on a representative sample of the adult population, the first one in 2000 during the peak of the crisis and the second one 13 months later in a quieter period. The main assumption we made was that changes in beef consumption are strongly related to the perceived risk of MCD, which we defined as people's cognitive and affective responses to hazard. Our objective was to identify the determinants and consequences of this perceived risk and to compare them in different sociopolitical contexts. The results issued from a bivariate and multivariate analysis show that: (i) the distribution of most of the variables significantly related to the perceived risk identified in the first survey had changed in the second survey, in relation with the reduction of worry and the resumption of national beef consumption; (ii) the propensity for self-protection through avoiding or ceasing beef eating was more related to feelings of worry than to subjective vCJD risk assessments; and (iii) the main determinant of less avoidance to beef products was the preference for beef, a feeling identified prior to emergence of the risk of MCD, remaining unchanged in various contexts.     

Chernobyl's Effects on the Perceived Risks of Nuclear Power: A Small Sample Test

This paper presents the results of two risk perception surveys, one taken just before and one just after the accident at Chernobyl in May, 1985. The results show that Chernobyl affected short-term perceptions of nuclear power risks in ways that are predictable and measureable. In this sample, perceived levels of dread of nuclear power increased, perceived knowledge increased, and perceived severity decreased. Overall, the results are informative about how a single event could affect perceived risk characteristics.     

Societal Risk as Seen by the French Public

Mean risk magnitude judgments expressed by French students on 90 hazardous activities are reported and compared with findings on American, Hungarian, and Norwegian samples. In many respects, rating of perceived risk in the French sample is highly comparable to rating in American subjects. American and French people tend to share the same preoccupations to the same extent. The only major differences concern hallucinatory drugs and oral contraceptives. The Norwegians and French ratings differ much more. Norwegians and French people generally have the same preoccupations (which make Norwegian ratings the best predictor of French ratings) but not to the same extent. The French are much more concerned with a whole series of activities connected to violence, the implementation of high technology or agricultural technology. However, like the Norwegians, the French are extremely concerned about the spread of hallucinogenic drugs. The Hungarian and French ratings differ on practically all instances, except on basic activities or substances in all industrialized nations (caffeine, motorcycles, …). Differences were observed within the French sample itself. Women more than men consider that home appliances in general and large-scale public transportation are potentially dangerous. Science students more than art students tend to fear a certain number of medical techniques and a certain number of toxic substances (e.g., smoking).     

Information Technology Risks as Seen by the Public

Risks related to information technology (IT) are becoming a focus of concern in current risk debates. The use of IT is rapidly spreading in the population, as is access to computers in general. The present article reviews the literature on IT use (especially electronic mail and various Internet applications) and the related risks. In addition, the results from a survey about IT use and risk perception, given to a random sample of the Swedish population, are reported. In general, participants were quite positive to IT and were, to some extent, aware of the related risks. However, risks of IT were mostly seen as pertinent to other people, a finding in contrast with other results on perceived technology hazards. The attitude toward the use of IT was strongly related to general attitude toward computers, and less clearly to risk perception. Only a small percentage of the respondents reported having had negative experiences with IT hazards such as Internet addiction, depression, and social isolation. When extrapolated to the general population, however, these small percentages amount to large groups in the population that have been negatively affected by IT use.