物流企业参与下的库存质押融资中的委托代理问题研究

本文在分析物流企业参与下的库存质押融资中银行与企业的收益的基础上,给出了银行和企业的委托代理模型,确定了代理成本。通过对比在信息对称和信息不对称情况下,投资激励与物流企业监管下银行的收益,确定了物流企业在库存质押融资中的监管程度的取值范围,说明了物流企业在这一融资模式中的作用,给出了各方由于信息不对称而付出的成本费用。     

考虑刚性兑付的银行最优资本结构与违约风险研究

随着地方国有企业债务风险的不断加大,如何实现打破刚性兑付与防范银行风险之间的平衡,是目前亟待解决的问题。本文借助银行股权和负债的“期权的期权”特性,将刚性兑付嵌入到银行资本结构决策和违约风险测度中,研究了资本结构固定和可调整两种情形下刚性兑付强度与银行违约风险间的关系,并进一步对比分析了基于标准法和内部评级法的资本监管对刚性兑付下银行风险的抑制效应,以期为防范打破刚性兑付可能引发的银行风险提供参考。研究发现,当资本结构固定时,银行违约风险与刚性兑付强度负相关;当资本结构可调整时,随着刚性兑付强度减弱,银行最优负债水平降低,银行违约风险则呈现出先递增后递减的“倒U”型趋势;基于标准法的资本监管可以有效抑制银行在资本结构决策时的道德风险,降低打破刚性兑付过程中的违约风险,但基于内部评级法的资本监管要求会因刚性兑付下国企债务违约概率的降低而减弱。     

金融推荐服务的渠道竞争策略研究

投资者对理财产品的认知能力有限,主要依赖外部“价值信号”形成自己对收益期望的“愿景”,从而简化投资过程。据此,本文通过构建一个新的三方博弈模型研究银行与数字金融平台之间的竞争决策,以探讨当银行有选择其销售顾问能力水平时,如何利用投资者的价值感知和对手特征来占客户对“愿景”错误理解的“便宜”,从而将这种系统性偏差转化为另一种获利来源。研究表明,金融服务强度的有效配置提升了银行的竞争力,但投资者剩余往往被完全剥夺。有趣的是,在同平台竞争中,银行增加了提供金融知识培训的额外动机,并且可能更喜欢强敌而不是弱者。此外,银行应该努力控制服务成本,以规避监管者为防止恶意竞争而禁止银行销售理财产品的风险。     

信息不对称下逆周期缓冲资本对银行投融资的影响

本文将信息不对称引入到包含逆周期缓冲资本的分析框架，应用不完全信息条件下的信号传递理论，建立动态博弈模型，计算证券的风险中性价格，给出银行应用投资水平传递类型信号的单交叉条件，并研究了逆周期缓冲资本对银行投融资决策的影响。数值分析表明：逆周期缓冲资本能显著降低投资者的逆向选择成本，缓解银行投资扭曲程度，提升银行运营稳健性并导致银行提前投资。更为重要的是，只要设计合适的转股率，逆周期缓冲资本可以完全消除逆向选择成本。同时，结果进一步表明低成本银行更倾向于发行逆周期缓冲资本。     

商业银行与中央银行的信息博弈研究

在制度转轨时期,由于信息的不对称导致商业银行与中央银行博弈的结果是降低监管效率,增大监管成本和损失社会福利。解决问题的关键在于尽快建立我国商业银行的信息披露机制,而信息披露机制建立的原则应是使进行非均衡交易行为的银行参与者所受到的预期惩罚要大于其预期收益。     

“有限合伙”陷阱多多

风险事件频频发生 2011年,上海多位投资者通过某银行上海分行嘉定支行员工介绍,购买中鼎财富投资中心(有限合伙)入股计划,该计划4期共募集1.19亿元.产品管理方为通商国银资产管理有限公司.2012年11月底,第一期到期无法兑付,最后理财资金不知去向.后在银行协调下,由担保公司赔偿投资者本金. 2012年1月,深圳投资者邓某在某银行支行行长推荐下购买500万的中鼎迅捷股权投资计划.产品到期时却发现,该理财产品的资金早已被管理人挪走,邓某与产品的担保公司陷入漫长的讨债"拉锯战".     

概率预期下在线报童问题的最小风险策略

报童问题是库存管理中一个基本模型。已有的报童模型主要利用均值-方差方法和期望效用目标方法进行风险的描述和度量。这些方法假设需求分布信息已知,而实际中需求分布信息往往难以完全刻画。本文使用概率预期作为刻画不完全需求分布信息的格式,基于在线风险补偿的思想,为需求分布信息不完全的报童问题建立了最小风险模型。使用该模型设计了最小风险策略,使报童可以根据自己设定的不同收益和未来概率预期选择最优订购量。     

抵押、贷款合约与道德风险

由于事后不对称信息的存在,在信贷市场中道德风险问题经常发生,而使用抵押则普遍存在道德风险问题.通过将努力变量引入不对称信息条件下信贷市场道德风险模型,分析不同借款人努力变量的成本收益特征,给出不同成本收益特征下借款人的最佳行动选择和银行相应的最优信贷合约,信贷合约中的抵押被用来激励借款人提高努力,讨论努力变量连续时借贷双方如何选择行动和贷款合约,指出借款人最优努力区间,在这个区间内信贷市场可能达到均衡.     

基于公平偏好的存货质押融资3PL激励机制研究

本文聚焦存货质押模式下银行与第三方物流(3PL)间的委托代理关系,将3PL公平偏好和能力信息不对称作为重要因素纳入委托监管契约机制设计中,探究二者对银行和3PL决策行为及效用的影响。结果表明：(1)相较于完全理性,3PL的公平偏好提高了物流企业承担的损失比例和付出的努力水平,且均随公平偏好程度的提高而不断增加;(2)相较于能力信息对称,3PL能力信息的不对称降低了物流企业承担的损失比例和付出的努力水平;(3)忽视3PL的公平偏好行为会损害银行的利益,特别是在3PL能力信息不对称情况下,银行提供的合同菜单将无法实现有效的信息甄别;(4)当银行考虑3PL公平偏好,则无论其是否存在公平偏好,能力信息对称时3PL只能获得保留效用;而当能力信息不对称时,3PL能够获得信息租金,且随3PL公平偏好程度和能力水平的提高而增加;(5)当3PL能力信息不对称且行业公平收益水平较低时,公平偏好的存在能够同时增加3PL和银行的期望效用,实现“双赢”。研究结果可为存货质押模式下3PL的激励机制设计问题提供理论依据和决策参考。     

基于虚假信息情况下系统收益模型及应用

针对确定队长不可见的顾客批量到达的排队系统,构建虚假信息情况下系统的收益模型,并研究其在呼叫中心排队系统的应用.模型首先引入虚假信息参数,根据生灭过程方法和区间数的依概率分布原理,得到系统收益函数,并从惩罚机制和系统间竞争的角度,对模型进行扩充.实例分析表明,当惩罚机制为空时,利用信息不对称优势,虚假信息确实可以提高系统收益,但随着虚假信息值不断增加,系统收益逐渐减小,这解释了不易察觉的虚假信息存在的原因;当惩罚机制非空时,虚假信息会降低系统收益,且不同惩罚函数对系统约束效果不同.在考虑系统间竞争时,虚假信息会降低系统收益,同时竞争有助于降低系统提供虚假信息值.实例分析证明模型的可行性,具有一定管理应用价值.     

Criteria for selecting a production control philosophy

Logistic objectives constitute a compromise between having short leadtimes and a low volume of work in progress on the one hand and a high resource loading and due date obligation on the other. Miscellaneous production planning approaches offered today provide different combinations of logistic objectives for satisfying a manufacturing strategy. To combine the strength of the various approaches into a unified system, a new approach based on a dynamic and distributed production planning methodology is proposed. To customize the approach, various analyses and specifications have to be made and for that reason some important characteristics and criteria for analysing production control philosophies will be given.     

The social construction of the meaning of acute stressors: a qualitative study of the personal accounts of police officers using a stress counselling service

The police profession is one in which acute stressors are encountered more frequently than in other occupations. Using the personal accounts of 35 police officers attending an in-house stress counselling clinic, the aim of the present study was to provide a qualitative examination of how the institutional context of policing influenced the ways in which acute stressors signified to individual police officers experiencing felt distress. Using the framework of Rational Emotive Behaviour Therapy as an analytical tool, it is argued that beliefs contributing to the experience of felt distress are related to the way in which policing as both an identity and an activity is constructed through the police organizational culture. Not only do these constructions influence the ways in which officers perceive themselves and their environments, but they also operate at the collective level to 'normalize' some emotional responses and to 'pathologize' others which, it is argued, could impact upon the outcomes of interventions such as stress counselling.     

The moderating role of social support in Karasek's job strain model

This paper examines whether social support is a boundary-determining criterion in the job strain model of Karasek (1979). The particular focus is the extent to which different sources of social support, work overload and task control influence job satisfaction, depersonalization and supervisor assessments of work performance. Hypotheses are tested using prospective survey data from 80 clerical staff in a university setting. Results revealed 3-way interactions among levels of support (supervisor, co-worker, non-work), perceived task control and work overload on levels of work performance and employee adjustment (self-report). After controlling for levels of negative affect in all analyses, there was evidence that high levels of supervisor support mitigated against the negative effects of high strain jobs on levels of job satisfaction and reduced reported levels of depersonalization. Moreover, high levels of non-work support and co-worker support also mitigated against the negative effects of high strain jobs on levels of work performance. The results are discussed in terms of the importance of social support networks both at, and beyond, the work context.     

Job insecurity, coping resources and personality dispositions in occupational strain

This paper presents research on the relationships between the work-related stressor of perceived job insecurity and various indicators of occupational strain, taking into account employees' personality dispositions (trait negative and positive affectivity) and coping resources. Respondents were 222 Australian public servants surveyed during organizational restructuring that involved downsizing and threat to job certainty. The research was formulated within an adaptation of Osipow, Doty, and Spokane's (1985) framework of stress-strain-coping that included the possible direct as well as moderating effects of personality dispositions in reporting occupational strain (Parkes, 1990). Findings from hierarchical regression analyses indicate consistent significant independent effects of personality dispositions, coping resources and perceived job insecurity on various indicators of strain. There was also support for the moderating roles of negative affectivity and self-care in the relation between perceived job insecurity and physical strain. Implications for the role of dispositional factors, especially negative affectivity, and the utility of various coping resources in accounting for occupational strain in times of threatened job security are discussed.     

Introduction to Special Section on Sensitivity Analysis and Summary of NCSU/USDA Workshop on Sensitivity Analysis

This guest editorial is a summary of the NCSU/USDA Workshop on Sensitivity Analysis held June 11–12, 2001 at North Carolina State University and sponsored by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Office of Risk Assessment and Cost Benefit Analysis. The objective of the workshop was to learn across disciplines in identifying, evaluating, and recommending sensitivity analysis methods and practices for application to food‐safety process risk models. The workshop included presentations regarding the Hazard Assessment and Critical Control Points (HACCP) framework used in food‐safety risk assessment, a survey of sensitivity analysis methods, invited white papers on sensitivity analysis, and invited case studies regarding risk assessment of microbial pathogens in food. Based on the sharing of interdisciplinary information represented by the presentations, the workshop participants, divided into breakout sessions, responded to three trigger questions: What are the key criteria for sensitivity analysis methods applied to food‐safety risk assessment? What sensitivity analysis methods are most promising for application to food safety and risk assessment? and What are the key needs for implementation and demonstration of such methods? The workshop produced agreement regarding key criteria for sensitivity analysis methods and the need to use two or more methods to try to obtain robust insights. Recommendations were made regarding a guideline document to assist practitioners in selecting, applying, interpreting, and reporting the results of sensitivity analysis.     

Job stress, job strain, and psychological withdrawal among Dutch university staff: towards a dualprocess model for the effects of occupational stress

This study examined the antecedents of job strain (emotional exhaustion, health complaints) and withdrawal behaviour (e.g. lowered organizational commitment) among a cross-sectional sample of 131 academic staff members of the law department of a large Dutch university. Conservation of resources theory (Hobfoll, 1989) provided the theoretical background for this study. Strains and withdrawal behaviours were expected to be most prominent among those who reported having few resources and/or who reported high job demands. Structural equation modelling revealed that this was indeed the case. As predicted, differential patterns of effects emerged for job demands and job resources. Analysis of the effects of four job-specific stressors revealed that especially the structural aspects of a staff member's teaching task (e.g. the number of students in their classes) contributed strongly to perceived job demands. Theoretical and practical implications of the study are discussed.     

Dermal Uptake of 18 Dilute Aqueous Chemicals: In Vivo Disappearance‐Method Measures Greatly Exceed In Vitro‐Based Predictions

Average rates of total dermal uptake (K_up) from short‐term (e.g., bathing) contact with dilute aqueous organic chemicals (DAOCs) are typically estimated from steady‐state in vitro diffusion‐cell measures of chemical permeability (K_p) through skin into receptor solution. Widely used (“PCR‐vitro”) methods estimate K_up by applying diffusion theory to increase K_p predictions made by a physico‐chemical regression (PCR) model that was fit to a large set of K_p measures. Here, K_up predictions for 18 DAOCs made by three PCR‐vitro models (EPA, NIOSH, and MH) were compared to previous in vivo measures obtained by methods unlikely to underestimate K_up. A new PCR model fit to all 18 measures is accurate to within approximately threefold (r = 0.91, p < 10^?5), but the PCR‐vitro predictions (r > 0.63) all tend to underestimate the K_up measures by mean factors (UF, and p value for testing UF = 1) of 10 (EPA, p < 10^?6), 11 (NIOSH, p < 10^?8), and 6.2 (MH, p = 0.018). For all three PCR‐vitro models, log(UF) correlates negatively with molecular weight (r² = 0.31 to 0.84, p = 0.017 to < 10^?6) but not with log(vapor pressure) as an additional predictor (p > 0.05), so vapor pressure appears not to explain the significant in vivo/PCR‐vitro discrepancy. Until this discrepancy is explained, careful in vivo measures of K_up should be obtained for more chemicals, the expanded in vivo database should be compared to in vitro‐based predictions, and in vivo data should be considered in assessing aqueous dermal exposure and its uncertainty.     

Systems Resilience for Multihazard Environments: Definition,Metrics, and Valuation for Decision Making

The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction reported that the 2011 natural disasters, including the earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan, resulted in $366 billion in direct damages and 29,782 fatalities worldwide. Storms and floods accounted for up to 70% of the 302 natural disasters worldwide in 2011, with earthquakes producing the greatest number of fatalities. Average annual losses in the United States amount to about $55 billion. Enhancing community and system resilience could lead to massive savings through risk reduction and expeditious recovery. The rational management of such reduction and recovery is facilitated by an appropriate definition of resilience and associated metrics. In this article, a resilience definition is provided that meets a set of requirements with clear relationships to the metrics of the relevant abstract notions of reliability and risk. Those metrics also meet logically consistent requirements drawn from measure theory, and provide a sound basis for the development of effective decision‐making tools for multihazard environments. Improving the resiliency of a system to meet target levels requires the examination of system enhancement alternatives in economic terms, within a decision‐making framework. Relevant decision analysis methods would typically require the examination of resilience based on its valuation by society at large. The article provides methods for valuation and benefit‐cost analysis based on concepts from risk analysis and management.     

Distinguishing traumatic, vicarious and routine operational stressor exposure and attendant adverse consequences in a sample of police officers

Problems in studying occupational stress within the police service are identified and the paucity of work on operational duties as potential stressors are discussed. The present study reports the results of a factor analysis of operational stressors (N = 601 serving British police officers) that revealed three factors: exposure to death and disaster; violence and injury; sexual crime. These were demonstrated to be reliable scales and were included in logistic regression models together with a range of demographic and psychological variables. Models were applied to men and women separately, which showed there to be different predictors of the likelihood of suffering distress (measured by the General Health Questionnaire, GHQ) in terms of the officer's gender and operational role. Overall the model for women officers was better at predicting psychological distress than that for men. These findings are related to aspects of the police occupational culture. Further discussion is offered that conceptualizes police operational stressors as traumatic, routine and vicarious. Finally, some implications are drawn for the provision of stress intervention in the light of this differentiation.     

UNIX系统性能监控简述及shell系统资源统计程序

本文简要阐述了unix系统中(主要以IBM的AIX为例)进行系统性能管理的几种命令行工具,并通过编写shell实例程序,运用其中提到的工具实现系统资源利用率的统计程序,为做好unix系统管理和调优提供参考.