CATASTROPHE THEORY AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE

We use the approach of R. Thom's "Catastrophe Theory" to construct a generalization of Kaldor's 1940 trade cycle. The model allows for cyclic behavior which exhibits either rapid recoveries (recessions) or slow recoveries (depressions) .     

DEMOGRAPHICS, PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH AND THE MACROECONOMIC EQUILIBRIUM

This paper investigates the economic effects of demographics and productivity growth in an intertemporal optimizing model with age-based heterogeneity and induced retirement. Our analysis reveals that the projected "population aging" is likely to increase the growth rate of output and to improve the welfare of the economy, especially if there are no distortional policies which prevent retirement decisions from adjusting endogenously to the demographic changes. The economy also displays different patterns of dynamic adjustment in the quantity and price variables depending upon whether retirement is endogenous.     

TRADE COSTS AND TRADE COMPOSITION

In this paper, we investigate whether countries' trade costs act like other national endowments by affecting the composition of countries' exports. Using an econometric approach that controls for endogeneity by accounting for potentially relevant omitted variables, we find strong evidence for a sample of 37 industrialized and transition countries that national trade costs systematically affect the composition of trade and can be viewed therefore as a source of comparative advantage. Industries located in countries with low trade costs capture significantly higher shares of world exports, where this effect is stronger in trade cost intensive industries. (JEL F11, F14)     

TRADE OVERLAP AND INTRA-INDUSTRY TRADE

Theorizing about and empirically measuring "intraindustry trade" is pointless if "factor proportions" vary more within than among "industries." Available data show this to be the case.     

INTERNATIONAL SUPPLY CHAINS AND THE VOLATILITY OF TRADE

Were the large import fluctuations around the 2007–2009 recession because of increasing trade volatility? I show that import volatility relative to gross domestic product (GDP) increased in the 2000s and examine whether vertical specialization (VS) trade can explain this increase. I develop and calibrate a model of VS trade that generates most of the observed increase in relative import volatility from the 1960s to the 2000s. The increase is because of GDP's shift to less volatile services production. VS trade has a negligible impact. VS causes trade to fall more in recession but also increases the share of output that is traded, leaving volatility unaffected. It increases volatility by shifting trade to more volatile sectors, but this effect is quantitatively small. (JEL E3, F1)     

ENTRY AND EXIT,PRODUCT VARIETY,AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE

We study the stochastic behavior of a dynamic general equilibrium model with monopolistic competition. Each seller sells his product in the consumption goods as well as the investment goods market and has market power in both. Consumers derive utility from a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) aggregate of all the consumption goods and augment their capital stock by a CES aggregate of all the investment goods. We analyze the equilibrium of this economy allowing for an endogenous determination of the number of firms and therefore of products. The principal effect we wish to highlight is the endogenous propagation and magnification of technology and preference disturbances through product space variations. (JEL E32, D43, L16)     

THE TERMS OF TRADE AND THE INTERNATIONAL COORDINATION OF FISCAL POLICY

This paper develops an example of a noncooperative game between fiscal authorities in two countries. The key strategic link between countries is the terms of trade. An equilibrium without cooperation is characterized by excessive tax rates and public spending levels in each country. The outcome is analogous to the Nash equilibrium of the static optimal tarif game in trade theory. But in this model there is also a dynamic distortion caused by noncooperative behaviour. This dynamic distortion depresses capital accumulation and reduces the equilibrium capital stock in each country. Numerical examples suggest a significant welfare benefit of cooperation.     

INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND THE COMPOSITION OF LABOR MARKET TURNOVER

The composition of labor market turnover is shown to influence patterns of international trade. Job and worker turnover have opposing marginal effects on industry export intensity, highlighting the importance of relative turnover shares on either side of the labor market, as opposed to total volumes of labor mobility, in shaping economic outcomes. Industries with relatively greater shares of worker turnover export more of total production, and those with higher job turnover export less. Furthermore, relatively high job turnover hinders industry adjustment following trade liberalization. These predictions receive support for U.S. manufacturing industries using turnover data in the Quarterly Workforce Indicators available from the U.S. Census Bureau. (JEL F16)     

INFORMATION AND THE LIFE CYCLE CONSUMPTION OF HAZARDOUS GOODS

Safety is a major area of public concern. The fact that people take risky occupations, smoke or fail to use seat belts often provokes a regulatory response designed to either protect people from the risks directly or to provide them with more information on the hazards involved. Such policy is often based on the view that risk-taking behavior is irrational or ill-advised. This paper develops life cycle models of the decision to consume hazardous goods. A particular focus of the analysis is to consider the rational response to information about hazards. Rational consumption of a hazardous good is shown to depend on such factors as the nature of the hazard, age, life expectancy, age at which information on the hazard was received and, of course, the underlying value of the good itself.     

THE EQUILIBRIUM FED FUNDS RATE AND THE INDICATOR PROPERTIES OF TERM-STRUCTURE SPREADS

This paper introduces a model-based measure of the equilibrium federal funds rate and examines the indicator properties of the spread between observed and equilibrium rates. The results are compared to those of existing studies, which implicitly use long-term interest rates to proxy the equilibrium funds rate. Granger-causality tests suggest that different measures of the term-structure spread are dominated by the funds-rate spread as a forecaster of a wide range of macroeconomic variables. These results are supported by variance-decomposition analysis. The paper also estimates simple VARs to discuss how the policy stance responds to macroeconomic shocks     

SOLVENCY REGULATION AND THE PROPERTY-LIABILITY "INSURANCE CYCLE"

Fluctuations in the supply of property-liability insurance may be exacerbated by regulation. To limit insolvencies, regulators constrain insurers against writing an excessive quantity of insurance relative to net worth. Revenue is used as a measure of aggregate quantity. In a competitive market with inelastic demand, a constraint on the ratio of revenue to net worth yields a catastrophe process for price dynamics. Indirect evidence supports the argument that the current form of solvency regulation is destabilizing.     

LONG-RUN EQUILIBRIUM IN THE EMPIRICAL STUDY OF MONOPOLY AND COMPETITION

A long-run tendency of industry profit rate to converge to a single competitive level has been a fundamental tenet of the industrial organization approach to the study of competitiveness in a market economy. This paper shows that for the post World War II period a weak equalization can be econometrically identified with different reaction speeds by industry. However, persistent profit rate differences endure. Finally, a portfolio theory of risk is considered as an explanation of these differentials.     

GENERAL WAGE ESCALATOR CLAUSES AND THE INFLATION UNEMPLOYMENT TRADE OFF

The purpose of this paper is to determine empirically the effect of general wage escalation, which is practiced in Israel, on the inflation unemployment trade off. Wage escalation is introduced by including a cost of living allowance variable in the wage equation which turns out to be very significant. It makes the long run Phillips Trade off relation much more inflationary, but does not obliterate it. A comparison with a wage price block for the U.S. suggests that the long run trade off is more inflationary in Israel and that wage indexation is one of the reasons for this bias.