分析师荐股更新利用管理层语调吗?——基于业绩说明会的文本分析

本文基于2005~2012年上市公司年度业绩说明会互动平台的相关文本信息研究发现,管理层净正面语调提高了分析师更新其荐股报告的可能性及更新人数比例,并会提高分析师荐股评级水平及其变动;而由于分析师乐观性偏差的存在,管理层正面语调对分析师荐股评级水平及其变动有显著正的影响,而负面语调则没有显著影响。本文进一步研究发现,业绩说明会与年报披露间隔时间、语调可靠性在一定程度上显著影响分析师利用管理层语调更新其荐股行为;经验丰富的分析师、非明星分析师、来自小券商和工作更为繁忙的分析师相对更充分或更有可能利用业绩说明会语调来更新其荐股行为。这些发现表明,业绩说明会管理层语调是有信息含量的,且分析师对此进行了一定程度的利用。     

管理者动态过度乐观与业绩预告质量北大核心CSSCI

管理层在以往业绩预告的连续成功会催生动态过度乐观,动态过度乐观会通过乐观预期和管理者机会主义行为两种机理影响本期业绩预告的质量。基于2003—2016年A股公司强制性业绩预告的数据表明,在其他条件相同时,以往业绩预告连续成功的次数越多,本期业绩预告乐观偏差的程度越小、准确度越高。进一步的分析显示,业绩预告的监管压力是乐观预期机理被削弱的主要因素。在考虑静态过度自信、管理层预测能力和稳健风格以及公司的业绩水平等因素后,结果仍然稳健。本文从信息披露的角度为管理者动态过度乐观的积极面提供了新证据,有助于监管机构与资本市场参与者更好地理解管理层业绩预告行为。     

标的公司的信息不对称会影响业绩承诺吗?

通过股份支付方式实施并购过程中签订业绩承诺条款是我国资本市场的特殊现象,近几年,业绩承诺成为学者和媒体关注的热点话题之一.目前,还鲜有文献研究并购中业绩承诺的影响因素.以并购双方的收益-成本为出发点,从博弈论和非上市公司视角,通过理论推导与实证检验发现:标的公司的信息不对称程度越高,并购中越可能签订业绩承诺协议,承诺的数额可能越高.上述结论在经过工具变量两阶段回归、PSM配对样本检验、自变量替代和双重聚类检验后仍然稳健.研究发现:当标的公司存在机构投资者时,信息不对称程度对并购中业绩承诺协议的签订概率和承诺数额的正向影响越不明显.希望研究结论能够给监管部门政策制定、上市公司并购行为、标的公司业绩承诺行为提供借鉴和指导.     

机构投资者调研与管理层盈余预测方式

 管理层盈余预测作为改善公司信息环境的重要手段之一，受到研究者们的广泛关注，近年来相关研究越来越强调具有信息优势的管理层会对业绩预告的披露时间和方式进行战略性选择，以实现自身利益最大化的目的。因此，对如何抑制管理层利用信息优势谋取私利、提高盈余预测精确度这一问题进行研究具有重要意义。        从信息不对称视角入手，以2013年至2015年深圳交易所披露管理层盈余预测的上市公司为研究样本，采用顺序Logit模型等多元回归分析方法，实证检验机构投资者调研与管理层盈余预测方式的关系，并进一步考察盈余预测信息性质和产权性质对二者关系的影响。以每个上市公司一年内接待的机构投资者调研次数或一年内接待的机构投资者总数的自然对数测量机构投资者调研频率。根据管理层盈余预测精确度将管理层预测分为4类，即当管理层盈余预测为点估计时赋值为4，为闭区间估计时赋值为3，为开区间估计时赋值为2，为定性预测时赋值为1。        研究结果表明，总体而言机构投资者调研越频繁的公司，其管理层越倾向于采用模糊的方式预测盈余，并且这种影响在盈余预测信息为坏消息时更为明显，以上情形主要存在于非国有企业中。进一步检验发现，相对于买方机构而言，卖方机构的调研行为更有可能导致管理层采用模糊方式进行盈余预测，公募基金和私募基金的调研行为对预测方式的影响并无显著差异。上述研究结果在进行工具变量两阶段最小二乘回归、Heckman两阶段检验等一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。        机构投资者作为重要的市场参与者，其行为一直受到广泛关注，与已有认为机构投资者与管理层直接沟通能够有助于降低信息不对称程度的研究不同，研究结果表明机构投资者调研给公司带来了业绩压力，从而使其更倾向于选择模糊的方式进行盈余预测，拓展了机构投资者行为对资本市场信息环境影响的相关研究，同时为中国投资者更有效地理解和利用管理层业绩预告信息进行决策、监管机构进一步完善上市公司信息披露规定、保护中小投资者权益提供了经验借鉴。     

股票期权激励与管理层业绩预测披露的操控行为

尽管股权激励能够提高管理层业绩预测披露的意愿,但也会引发其在业绩预测披露中的自利行为。由于管理层对业绩预测披露具有较强的自由裁量权,大量的研究表明管理层会操控业绩预测披露影响股价,从而增加其股票交易的私有收益。在此背景下,研究股票期权激励对管理层业绩预测披露的影响具有重要意义。 利用2006年至2015年A股上市公司管理层业绩预测和股票期权激励草案公告的数据,以业绩预测发布前后一个交易日的累计异常收益率区分好消息和坏消息以及业绩预测消息的利好和利空程度,分别采用Logistic回归和OLS回归实证检验自利动机的管理层在草案公告前后是否会操控业绩预测披露来压低行权价格,采用一系列稳健性检验来保证研究结论的可靠性。 研究结果表明,管理层在股票期权激励草案公告前30个交易日内会披露更多的业绩预测坏消息,而在草案公告后30个交易日内会披露更多的业绩预测好消息;在草案公告前(后)披露业绩预测时,业绩预测的利空(利好)程度越大;管理层获授股票期权的价值占其总薪酬的比重越大,上述业绩预测操控行为的倾向就越明显;管理层在草案公告前操控业绩预测披露时,更倾向于选择强制性披露,以降低被处罚的风险。草案公告前(后)30个交易日内有显著的负(正)累计异常收益率,说明投资者未能识别管理层的上述操控行为,管理层通过操控业绩预测披露成功压低了行权价格;管理层在草案公告前(后)会有意进行悲观(乐观)的预测偏差,说明管理层确实操控了业绩预测披露,而并非仅根据业绩预测好消息和坏消息的披露来择机公告草案。 研究结论对监管层进一步完善股票期权激励制度、加强对管理层业绩预测披露的监管具有重要的借鉴意义。建议监管层对股票期权激励计划草案推出的时间窗口和业绩预测披露做一些限制性规定,如限制上市公司在业绩预测发布前后30日内推出草案,从而抑制高管利用业绩预测披露操控行权价格的自利行为。     

管理层股权激励与企业未来盈余定价——来自中国资本市场的证据

本文探讨管理层股权激励对企业未来盈余定价的影响,并进一步将企业未来盈余分解为行业成分和公司特质成分,考察股权激励对不同成分未来盈余定价的影响,以及不同模式股权激励对上述关系影响的差异。利用实施股权激励的中国A股上市公司2006-2016年间的数据,本文发现：（1）股权激励提高了当期股票收益率与企业未来盈余的相关性。说明管理层股权激励有助于投资者对企业未来盈余定价;（2）管理层股权激励并不影响投资者对行业成分未来盈余定价,但会加速投资者对公司特质未来盈余定价;（3）管理层的股票型激励有助于投资者对企业未来盈余定价,同时也能加速投资者对公司特质未来盈余定价,但股票期权激励并无上述作用。研究结果意味着,整体而言股权激励能够缓解管理层与股东之间信息披露的代理问题,激励管理层向外部投资者披露更多高质量的公司基本面信息,从而降低投资者对公司特质未来盈余信息的搜寻成本,最终通过加速公司特质未来盈余信息融入股价来促进投资者对企业未来盈余定价。本文揭示了管理层股权激励促进投资者对企业未来盈余定价的微观机制,同时,研究结论对提高中国证券市场的信息效率提供了重要的理论参考。     

盈余管理对上市公司未来经营业绩的影响研究——基于应计盈余管理与真实盈余管理比较视角

本文对比分析了应计盈余管理与真实盈余管理对我国上市公司未来经营业绩的不同影响。研究结果表明,应计与真实盈余管理都会对公司未来经营业绩产生负面影响,且应计盈余管理对公司短期经营业绩的负面影响更大,真实盈余管理对公司长期经营业绩的负面影响更大;公司管理层会使用应计盈余管理或真实盈余管理来满足"盈余阈值";满足"盈余阈值"的真实盈余管理对公司未来经营业绩具有显著负效应,而满足"盈余阈值"的应计盈余管理对公司未来经营业绩具有显著正效应;仅通过应计盈余管理满足"盈余阈值"的公司比仅通过真实盈余管理满足"盈余阈值"的公司具有更优的未来经营业绩。本文研究结论有助于深化利益相关者对盈余管理经济后果的理解。     

年报文本信息复杂性与管理者自利——来自中国上市公司的证据

本文研究管理者出于自利动机的年报文本信息复杂性披露策略。研究发现,相比于业绩较好公司,业绩较差公司年报文本信息的复杂性更高,且上述关系在盈余管理空间小、管理层持股比例大、两职合一和法律风险低的公司中更为显著;进一步地,年报文本信息复杂性越高,管理者获得的超额薪酬越高;相比业绩较好公司,业绩较差公司年报文本信息复杂性的短期、长期市场反应更积极。研究表明,出于自利动机,管理者会操纵年报文本信息复杂性;文本信息复杂性操纵对数字信息操纵有替代作用,且管理层持股及公司内、外部治理均会影响文本信息复杂性操纵;通过操纵年报文本信息复杂性,管理者能够获取更高超额薪酬,并提高公司市场估值。本文首次基于中文年报文本信息大样本分析,为已有文本信息复杂性披露策略研究提供了实证证据,验证了数字信息和文本信息操纵手段间的替代效应,拓展了机会主义披露研究。本文的研究结论对于完善公司年报文本信息披露监管法规具有重要启示。     

市场非有效与公司投机及过度融资

构建了一个模型,讨论非有效的股票市场对上市公司控股股东或管理层过度融资与短期实业投机行为的影响.并针对具体因素采用比较静态的方法,分析非有效市场对管理层投机程度的影响及其经济意义.发现:公司管理层会在真实内在价值的实业投资和短期投机之间权衡.1)当实业投资回报比较高时,即使市场非有效程度比较高,公司管理层也不会采取投机活动;当实业竞争激烈,收益相对于投机过低时,会选择短期投机.2)当多余的融资大到某种程度时,会影响公司管理者投资行为,他们会花一部分功夫去迎合外部投资者,而且在迎合上所下的功夫随着多余的融资的增大而增大.     

管理层责任承担的市场反应———基于内部控制缺陷披露的视角

以 2010 年 ～ 2018 年存在内部控制重要缺陷和重大缺陷的 A 股上市公司为研究样本,基于信任修复理论,考察了管理层责任承担的市场反应． 研究发现: 1) 管理层对内部控制缺陷的责任承担引起消极的市场反应; 2) 在区分内部控制缺陷程度后发现,上述消极反应在重大缺陷的样本中更为明显; 3) 财务报告内控缺陷更多时,管理层责任承担产生了更加消极的市场反应． 进一步研究发现,内控缺陷整改和高的媒体关注度降低了投资者对管理层责任承担的 负向反应; 从长期来看,管理层责任承担充分地释放了内控缺陷的负面消息,降低了公司股价未来崩盘风险． 研究有助于深入理解管理层责任承担在我国资本市场中的作用,并为监管部门完善内部控制信息披露提供了参考．     

Fresh in the saddle: The influence of a new CEO's vision and origin,and CEO succession type on market actors' reactions

CEO succession is a critical event in the life of a company. How external stakeholders respond to it, can affect the company's valuation. This study investigates how securities analysts' and investors' reactions to CEO succession are affected by the interplay between the charisma of the new CEO's vision, the new CEO's origin (whether an insider or outsider), and the type of CEO succession (whether routine, dismissal or interim). Drawing on the literature on signaling, we suggest that because a charismatic vision emits a positive signal about the company's future performance, it will affect market actors' reactions by either weakening or strengthening the influence of the signals emitted by other succession context contingencies, namely, CEO origin and succession type. To test our predictions regarding analysts' and investors' reactions, we respectively analyze panel data and conduct an event study. The results support most of our predictions. We discuss the study's contributions and implications.     

Customer Behavior in an Online Ordering Application: A Decision Scoring Model*

This research presents the development of behavioral scoring models to predict future customer purchases in an online ordering application. Internet retailing lowers many barriers for customers switching between retailers for repeat purchases; thus, retaining existing customers is a key challenge for achieving profitability. Survey data were collected from 1,089 online customers of two companies. The subjective survey data were then used to predict purchases over the ensuing 12 months based on data from the company databases. The analysis illustrates the general applicability of predictive models of future customer purchases while also demonstrating the need to develop specific models tailored for an individual company's operating and marketing environment. The models provide insight on how companies can target marketing dollars more effectively and allocate investment across multiple operational areas for maximum return. The research answers a call for rigorous research in the area of predictive marketing, an area in which many companies are excelling but where there is a scarcity of detailed knowledge regarding application of such models.     

The Effect of Product Development Restructuring on Shareholder Value

This article examines the effect of product development restructuring (PDR) on shareholder value. The results are based on a sample of 165 announcements made during 2002–2011. PDR announcements are associated with an economically and statistically significant positive stock market reaction. Over a two‐day period (the day of the announcement and the day preceding the announcement), the mean (median) market reaction is 1.63% (0.87%). The market reaction is generally positive regardless of the PDR purpose or action. Although the market reaction is more positive for higher R&D intensity firms, it is not directly affected by the firm's prior financial performance or whether the firm's primary PDR objective is to increase revenues or cut costs. However, the interaction between the firm's prior financial performance and its primary PDR objective is significant. For firms that are financial outperformers, the market reaction is more positive if the firm's primary PDR objective is to increase revenues. For financial underperformers, the market reaction is more positive if the firm's primary PDR objective is to cut costs.     

Total Board Compensation,Governance and Performance of Spanish Listed Companies

In this paper we present empirical evidence on the relationship between board remuneration of a sample of large Spanish companies and a set of explanatory variables such as performance and size of the company. The objective is to provide additional empirical evidence based on the agency theory for the Spanish institutional context, which differs from most ‘Anglo–Saxon’ model studies. We focus on the impact of a company's governance structure on the relationship between pay and performance. Specifically, we consider ownership concentration and firm leverage as key determinants of the board–shareholders relationship. Our results confirm the positive relationship between board remuneration and company performance, which is stronger for book values than for stock market measures. Industry performance also explains the remuneration and provides useful information for evaluating board behaviour. Company size is also related to board remuneration and affects the pay–performance relationship, although it is not relevant when we use an elasticity approach. Finally, the governance structure of companies is relevant when explaining the power of the compensation–performance relationship, and differences between the impact of ownership concentration and firm leverage on this relationship are found.     

Uncovering the factors behind new ventures’ international performance: Capabilities,alertness and technological turbulence

This research is based on the perception that the explanation of International New Ventures' (INVs) performance demands a process view, going deeper than the standard approach, in empirical papers, of testing a direct relationship between company-level antecedents and performance. A three-tier model was developed to investigate the process leading to INVs international performance, emphasizing the role of entrepreneurial alertness. Based on the dynamic capabilities framework, entrepreneurial alertness was envisaged as the mediating element between firms' capabilities and their international performance. Empirical research confirmed the hypothesized model. Firms' capabilities (entrepreneurial orientation, foreign market knowledge, and absorptive capacity) significantly influence the level of entrepreneurial alertness, which impacts on the levels of self-reported satisfaction with the company's international performance. The paper makes four contributions to International Entrepreneurship literature. First, it highlights the key role played by entrepreneurial alertness in explaining INVs' international performance. This is convergent with the dynamic capabilities view on firms' ability to sense and seize specific international business opportunities. Second, this study considers entrepreneurial alertness as a capability that is not limited to the entrepreneur, but it is an organizational capability. Third, it shows that entrepreneurial alertness does not exist in the vacuum, is based on a set of base capabilities, namely entrepreneurial orientation, foreign market knowledge, and absorptive capacity, that simultaneously leverage the INVs to sense possible opportunities and constrain the focus of opportunities to international markets, as a key element to foster INVs' higher performance. Fourth, it underlines the role of technological turbulence as a moderator of the relationship between entrepreneurial alertness and INVs' international performance.     

Does the Stock Market Gender Stereotype Corporate Boards? Evidence from the Market's Reaction to Directors' Trades

Attitudes towards male and female managers within organizations are well documented, but how the stock market perceives their relative capabilities is less studied. Recent evidence documents a negative short‐run market reaction to the appointment of female chief executive officers and suggests that female executives are less informed than their male counterparts about future corporate performance. These results appear to dispute the stock market value of having women on corporate boards. However, such short‐run market reactions may retain a ‘gender bias’, reflecting the prevalence of negative stereotypes, where the market reacts to ‘beliefs’ rather than ‘performance’. This study tests for such bias by examining the stock market reaction to directors' trades in their own companies' shares, by measuring both the short‐run and longer‐term returns after the directors' trades. Allowing for firm and trade effects, some evidence is found that, in the longer term, markets recognize that female executives' trades are informative about future corporate performance, although initially markets underestimate these effects. This has important implications for research that has attempted to assess the value of board diversity by examining only short‐run stock market responses.     

An analytical tool for managing environmental risks strategically

In this article, Dr. Robert Repetto and Duncan Austin of the World Resources Institute present an approach for analyzing and communicating the financial implications of a company's environmental exposures through an empirical application to companies in the U.S. pulp and paper industry. The methodology is based on a sequence of steps: A) identifying salient impending environmental issues; B) developing multiple scenarios for each issues; C) assessing the company (or facility's) exposure under each scenario; D) estimating scenario-specific financial impacts; E) constructing overall risk measures; and F) analyzing options to minimize risks or maximize advantages.Within the pulp and paper industry there are varying levels of exposure and associated risk from environmental issues. For some companies, environmental issues will have little or no impact on financial performance, while for others, they could be a source of increased value. For others, environmental issues may entail costs that approach fifteen percent of a company's current valuation. In environmentally sensitive industries, the approach presented can help companies to benchmark themselves against rivals, identify major sources of environmental risk and opportunity, assign financial values to risk-mitigating options, and communicate their environmental strategies to the investment community and other stakeholders.     

Valuing corporate environmental performance: Innovest's evaluation of the electric utilities industry

Investment analysts are often skeptical of any link between a company's environmental performance and business performance. However, a study of twenty-six electric utilities by Innovest shows a striking difference in share value between the best and worst environmental performers. Deregulations of the U.S. electric power industry has little noticed implications for environmental performance and risk. Add to that increasing regulatory pressure and public awareness, and environmental strategy emerges as a pivotal factor underlying success—or failure—in the industry. In the article, the authors show how forward-thinking companies are turning environmental threats into business opportunities, with shareholders pocketing the returns.     

Managing growth: New products and new markets at Monsanto

In a little more than a decade, bioengineering has moved from the esoteric halls of academia and R & D departments to the center stage of major corporate financial strategic planning. For many major chemical and refining companies, genetic manipulation is becoming the centerpiece of survival. Dupont, for instance, is considering getting rid of the $21-billion Conoco Company in order to devote resources to the development of, and more importantly, the marketing of bioengineered products. Monsanto, largely because of its emphasis on reducing the environmental impact of its agricultural products, is one of the few major corporations to cultivate profit from the soil surface through design for the environment. Monsanto's CEO, Robert Shapiro, has made the consideration of the company's impact on the environment dependent on the company's competetive future.     

The Effect of Absorptive Capacity on Innovativeness: Context and Information Systems Capability as Catalysts

The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between absorptive capacity and company innovativeness and to identify potential contexts and capabilities that can act as catalysts for these relationships. We also examine the relationship between absorptive capacity and the existence and enhancement of innovativeness. These relationships are examined through an empirical investigation of 286 large Spanish companies. Our results show that absorptive capacity is an important dynamic determinant for developing a company's innovativeness. Moreover, this relationship is best explained by two related constructs. First, the company's unlearning context is a crucial determinant for both potential capacity and realized absorptive capacity. Second, the results also indicate a tangible means for managers to enhance their absorptive capacity through information systems capabilities.