供应链金融视角下的中小企业信用风险评估研究——基于SVM与BP神经网络的比较研究

近年来,依托中小企业与核心企业间真实贸易背景开发的供应链金融业务在我国发展迅速,这要求商业银行从新的视角对中小企业的信用风险进行认识和评估。本文从供应链金融的视角,提出了新的中小企业信用风险评估指标体系,该体系结合了核心企业资信情况及供应链关系情况,运用机器学习的方法支持向量机(SVM)建立信用风险评估模型;并通过与用BP神经网络算法建立的信用风险评估模型进行实证结果对比,结果表明在小样本下基于SVM的信用风险评估模型更具有效性和优越性,同时证实了供应链金融视角下的中小企业信用风险评估指标体系能够更准确地判断中小融资企业的信用状况,有助于缓解中小企业融资困境。     

中小企业信用风险评价模型构建研究——基于供应链金融视角

本文在对供应链金融的概念界定的基础上,对基于供应链金融的中小企业范围及其信用风险的概念予以界定,并从银行的视角,建立了中小企业信用风险评价指标体系,运用灰色层次分析法和一次门限法,建立了基于供应链金融的中小企业信用风险评价模型,以期为金融机构风险评价提供可借鉴的方法。     

中小企业供应链融资的信用风险预测研究

针对中小企业供应链融资中的信用风险,本文利用朴素贝叶斯分类算法来预测供应链融资的信用风险,金融机构可据此加强贷款信用风险管理,并针对不同还款能力的企业制定不同的信贷政策以控制和规避信用风险,从而促进银企合作,形成银行与供应链成员的多方共赢局面。     

银行供应链金融在解决中小企业融资困难方面的探析

银行供应链金融的提出为解决中小企业发展融资困难开辟了新道路,其融资模式为中小企业的融资理念和技术创新提供了解决方案;也为中小企业和银行接纳和稳定高端客户提供了新渠道;缓解了中小企业融资困难的困境,使其经济效益增加,同时也一定程度上解决了银行和中小企业信息不对称问题。银行供应链金融也在国内外各大商业银行中得到实践,其效果显著。     

基于供应链金融的信用风险管理研究

供应链金融是将供应链上的相关企业作为一个整体,根据交易中构成的链条关系和行业特点构建融资方案,将资金注入弱势中小企业,并为大型企业提供资金理财服务,从而解决供应链中资金分配不平衡问题,提升整个供应链的企业群体竞争力的一种金融创新产品。本文针对供应链金融信用风险的影响因素及成因,提出了基于信用利差期权的供应链金融信用风险管理方法。     

多重关联关系下供应链上关联信用风险的传染效应

供应链企业之间的多重关联关系导致其信用风险传染愈加复杂。本文基于供应链双渠道融资模式,针对供应链上同时存在交易关联、资产关联和人际关联等三重关联关系的情景,揭示了关联信用风险微观传染机理,构建了关联信用风险传染强度模型,分别探讨了三种关联关系以及链外市场对传染效应的影响。为研究关联信用风险传染的外溢效应,在银行未识别出供应链上关联关系时,探讨了银行面临的期望损失。结合仿真分析发现,相较于单一商业信用融资,双渠道融资模式下传染效应更弱;在最优交易关联强度下,商业信用额度和成本（反映了供应链上的一种资产关联关系）在不同方向上对传染效应产生影响,人际关联关系以及链外市场均负向影响传染效应;银行期望损失则与贷款利率和贷需比相关,人际关联关系将导致银行更大的潜在损失。     

供应链金融升级创新的途径——以中小企业创新融资为例

供应链金融是银行围绕核心企业,管理上下游中小企业的资金流和物流,并把单个企业的不可控风险,转变为供应链企业整体的可控风险,通过获取各类信息,将风险控制在最低的金融服务。随着生产专业化水平的逐步提高,供应链金融在企业发展过程中的作用日益突显,利用供应链中的金融工具降低融资风险,从而提高中小企业的融资能力,开拓新型融资渠道,最终达到逐步完善我国金融市场的目标。     

银行在中小企业供应链金融中的风险控制

供应链金融中主要包括银行、核心企业、上下游中小企业三方主体,各方都面临着不同的经营风险。银行作为供应链金融融资方,需要控制整个供应链系统中的资金情况,需要考察监控的企业数量较多、操作流程复杂,所面临的风险最大。对银行所面临的供应链金融风险进行分析,并提出相应的风险控制解决方案,对整个供应链金融的正常运作和流程优化有着十分重要的意义。     

物流企业增值服务创新——金融第三方模式

本文探讨了一种推动质押贷款,促进中小企业发展的金融第三方模式,为银行与企业间的合作架构新桥梁,帮助中小企业解决融资难题,而且能有效地融入中小企业供应链体系之中,为其提供高效的第三方物流服务。     

供应链金融对中小企业的战略价值分析

现今供应链环境越来越引起企业界的重视,创新型的金融品开发,中小企业的融资难困境,融资门槛的过高,必将成为供应链发展的客观要求。在第三方企业的商业模式探索和创新中,不可避免地要求供应链金融在制度、资源等方面中完成供应链各个环节的利益优化,以便解开困扰多年的中小企业融资困局及技术障碍。本文从中小企业融资特性、供应链金融概念以及供应链金融模式三部分的介绍为中小企业战略选择提供价值分析。     

Why aren't managers concerned about occupational stress?

Abstract

To explain the rarity of workplace stress management interventions, it is thought that managers are not concerned with the risks of occupational stress to health and job performance. Some writers consider either (1) deficiencies in theory, and/or (2) deficiencies in methodology to be the cause of this apparent lack of concern. The aim of this paper is to illustrate another perspective on this issue; that of risk perception. Two perspectives on risk perception are discussed; the psychometric view and the cultural view. The psychometric view suggests that senior managers may underestimate the risks associated with stress. The cultural view suggests that managers may consider stress management to be inappropriate, since individuals, not organizations, should be responsible for coping with stress. Both perspectives indicate that very few managers may consider stress to be a risk that should be actively managed by the organization. The associated disciplines of risk management and particularly risk communication are discussed to suggest ways to overcome lack of managerial interest in stress management.     

Why aren't managers concerned about occupational stress?

To explain the rarity of workplace stress management interventions, it is thought that managers are not concerned with the risks of occupational stress to health and job performance. Some writers consider either (1) deficiencies in theory, and/or (2) deficiencies in methodology to be the cause of this apparent lack of concern. The aim of this paper is to illustrate another perspective on this issue; that of risk perception. Two perspectives on risk perception are discussed; the psychometric view and the cultural view. The psychometric view suggests that senior managers may underestimate the risks associated with stress. The cultural view suggests that managers may consider stress management to be inappropriate, since individuals, not organizations, should be responsible for coping with stress. Both perspectives indicate that very few managers may consider stress to be a risk that should be actively managed by the organization. The associated disciplines of risk management and particularly risk communication are discussed to suggest ways to overcome lack of managerial interest in stress management.     

企业国际化经营中关键风险的识别研究

风险识别是企业从事国际化经营时进行风险管理采取的首要步骤,也是进一步实施风险防范与规避的前提和基础.本文以中国企业的国际化经营为研究背景,在对国际风险分类与识别进行理论推导的基础上,通过实证研究,对企业在采取不同国际市场进入模式时所面临的各类风险加以识别,并对关键风险进行聚焦探析.     

集团公司战略风险属性的识别研究

集团公司的战略风险源于公司战略、环境、资源和竞争能力四要素之间的动态不和谐,它具有七种表现形态或征兆。本文据此构建了识别战略风险属性等级的数学方法,并将其应用在青岛啤酒有限集团公司的战略风险识别中。     

多元化经营策略批判——论竞争风险

多元化投资可以分散非系统风险这一命题对证券投资者适用,但对于企业的经营性投资而言,虽然多元化也可以分散某些非系统风险,但是同时也会增加企业面临的竞争风险.与此同时,多元化经营所涉及的不仅是风险问题.所以,企业在采用多元化策略时,就应该慎重,全面权衡自身的经营意图与多元化的有关利弊.     

集团公司战略风险管理的理论探讨

本文对集团公司战略管理过程中产生战略风险的机制从公司整体运行的角度进行研究,提出了公司战略风险管理的系统化理论模型,并从公司的环境、资源、能力和公司主题战略四个方面分析了战略风险产生的风险机理。并提出了环境和资源对公司战略主题目标的实现的影响及产生风险的机制。     

上市公司独立董事辞职行为研究--基于前景理论的分析

尽管独立董事辞职现象很普遍,但对此的相关研究不多.借助前景理论的基本原理,本文分析了上市公司独立董事的辞职行为;通过把发生独立董事辞职的公司和其它公司对比,发现独立董事辞职主要是基于自身对所任职上市公司的风险权衡.具体来说,上市公司的流动性风险、股权变更、股权集中度和重大关联事项会对独立董事辞职选择产生重大的影响.这些结果为监管机构进一步完善独立董事制度提供了参考.     

基于风险的企业战略控制系统

本文从分析战略风险的形成以及战略风险类型出发,指出了预期战略与应急战略的风险产生主要是由相应的环境因素和风险压力的结合导致的。依据此逻辑,为防止预期战略和应急战略的风险,需要从组织外部和内部视角建立相应的控制机制,最终组成企业完整的战略控制系统(TOEM模型)。最后,为使战略控制系统在实践中切实发挥效果,企业要采取一定的措施,使战略控制系统得以实施、维护和更新。     

Probabilistic dominance criteria for comparing uncertain alternatives: A tutorial

This paper is a tutorial which demonstrates the current state-of-the-art methods for incorporating risk into project selection decision making. The projects under consideration might be R&D, IT, or other capital expenditure programs. We will show six decision making methods: 1. mean-variance (MV), 2. mean-semivariance, 3. mean-critical probability, 4. stochastic dominance, 5. almost stochastic dominance (ASD), and 6. mean-Gini. We will also describe the assumptions about the risk attitudes of the decision maker which are associated with each of the techniques. While all these methods have been previously applied elsewhere, this is the first paper which shows all of their applications in the project selection context, together with their interrelationships, strengths and weaknesses. We have applied all six techniques to the same group of five hypothetical projects and evaluated the resulting nondominated sets. Among the methods reviewed here, stochastic dominance is recommended because it requires the least restrictive assumptions. ASD and mean-Gini are recommended when stochastic dominance is not practical or when it does not yield definitive choices. MV, mean-semivariance, and mean-critical probability are shown to be flawed.     

ASYMMETRIC LOSS FUNCTION AND OPTIMAL POLICY UNDER UNCERTAINTY: A SIMPLE PROOF

Given an asymmetric quasi-convex loss function and a symmetric quasi-concave probability density function, both continuous, an extremely simple proof is suggested that shows that a policy maker will minimize expected loss by choosing a policy value on the less-damaging side of the loss function. This proof, which is compatible with a wide variety of loss functions and probability density functions, is extended to include cases where a symmetric loss function is matched against an asymmetric probability density function and where an asymmetric loss is matched with an asymmetric probability density function.