资本论与现时代——经济增长理论视域下论我国经济增长方式的转变

面对当前国内资源供给有限，资源供需矛盾非常突出，产品成本增加，环境污染严重。服务业滞后，我们必须重视经济增长方式如何由粗放型向集约型转变的问题，因此文中在论述马克思经济增长理论的基础上，提出了现时代如何实现更好的经济增长方式。     

警惕中国宏观经济增速放缓以后……

1978年以来，中国经济已经保持了近30年的高速增长。尤其是自2002年以来，中国的GDP年增长速率每年都在两位数以上。最近，从各种渠道传来的信息均表明，中国经济的增速正在放缓，以至政府决策机构也调整了对中国经济增长的预期，把2008年的GDP年增长目标定为8％。另外，国际货币基金组织、经济合作与开发组织、亚洲开发银行以及其他一些国际机构最近也都降低了对2008年中国经济增长速率的预期。     

高增长为何没带来商就业

近年来，我国经济每年增长都在8％以上，世界少见。但是，就业再就业的形势却依然严峻。经济高增长为何没带来人们预期中的高就业？     

当就业遭遇经济危机——鸡下蛋，蛋却孵不出小鸡

经济高增长未能带来高就业之现状，在中国已持续演绎了近20年，部分国内学者称其为“奥肯悖论”，经济高增长时就业情势都不乐观，遑论经济形势恶化时，就业形势又如何能让人乐观起来。     

数字

9％：预测我国明年经济增长 中国社会科学院发布的经济蓝皮书预测2009年我国GDP增长速度将达到8．3％左右,实现“保八”经济增长目标。如果2010年世界金融危机不再进一步严重恶化,国内不出现大范围严重自然灾害和其他重大问题,明年的经济形势的特点,可以用“温和”二字来概括。投资、消费、出口、物价等指标都将是一个温和上涨的态势,     

读数字

9％：预测我国明年经济增长 中国社会科学院发布的经济蓝皮书预测2009年我国GDP增长速度将达到8．3％左右,实现“保八”经济增长目标。如果2010年世界金融危机不再进一步严重恶化,国内不出现大范围严重自然灾害和其他重大问题,明年的经济形势的特点,可以用“温和”二字来概括。投资、消费、出口、物价等指标都将是一个温和上涨的态势,     

供给侧结构性改革与中国经济增长趋势预测

随着供给侧结构性改革的推进,中国资源要素供给效率和供给质量将明显上升,经济结构将进一步优化,制度创新将进一步释放经济增长活力,中国经济增长潜力将转化为实际经济增长.基于中国经济增长潜力的释放,对中国未来经济增长趋势进行预测,从现在到2050年,中国长周期经济增长将逐步趋缓,并向世界平均经济增速收敛,到2050年可能回归至3％～4％的增速水平.     

天津生产性服务业发展对策研究

几乎在所有国家，服务业的表现都会影响经济增长。发达国家的经济主体己经从原来的制造业转换成服务业，其中生产性服务业的增长远远超出服务业的平均增长水平，发展速度非常引人注目，各经济体服务业的产值比重与就业比重逐渐上升，在发达国家经济体中，这两项指标均已超过60％，有的甚至高达80％，这一数据在发展中国家也有较大的提高。     

包容性增长：中国经济从量变向质变切换

“包容性增长”概念的提出,正当其时。包容性增长最基本的含义是公平合理地分享经济增长。中国经济、社会需要科学发展,需要“包容性增长”,就当下及未来一段时间而言,关键是如何将这一概念融入经济、社会发展的政策与实践中。倡导包容性增长须去经济增长的GDP化;践行包容性增长必须优先开发人力资本;强化包容性增长需要加快实现基本公共服务均等化;实现包容性增长需要着力推进城乡发展一体化;推进包容性增长需要深化收入分配制度改革;加快包容性增长需要始终追求社会公平正义。     

中国中长期经济增长要素的变化及对上海经济发展的影响

在世界经济重心东移的背景下,中国未来30年经济增长的总体态势、增长空间、动力机制和波动规律将对上海未来经济发展产生重要影响.中国经济增长的直接动力来自全要素生产率的提高.驱动中国全要素生产率增长的动力机制将主要来自技术创新和制度创新.技术创新的关键动力在于不断扩大的对外开放和强化国内竞争.对外开放加速技术扩散,增加竞争和放松管制有利于激励企业提高生产效率.虽然中国未来要素供给的优势不断减弱,但中国仍然可以依靠制度改革,提高要素的配置效率,实现经济的长期稳定增长.     

湖南教育投入对区域经济发展动态影响的研究

选取资本、劳动力、教育经费投入变量,建立湖南区域经济发展的非线性生产函数模型,运用1978—2011年的数据资料进行实证分析,得到结论：时间因素对经济发展影响是显著的,同时高等教育经费投入、资本和劳动力对区域经济发展有促进作用,教育投入每增长1％,将会促进GDP增长0．206％,但其作用不是很明显,需要采取措施促进湖南教育经费投入与区域经济的协调发展。     

Causes of Uruguayan migration to Argentina

2 main hypotheses have been suggested to explain Uruguayan migration to Argentina: 1) political emigration because of the military regime imposed in June 1973 and 2) economic emigration because of the economic improvement in destination countries and the worsening conditions at home. A further formulation of the 2nd hypothesis incorporates sociodemographic factors in its theory. This paper elaborates a theoretical framework using human capital theories to formulate a model of the effects of the economic variables of wages and unemployment, and adds political and sociological variables to the model. The authors then quantify the relative effects of the political, human capital, and informational variables. Results of multivariate analysis show that for 1966-1981, 53.1% moved for economic reasons, 25.7% moved for political reasons, and 21.2% moved for social reasons. In the long run, the most important cause of migration to Argentina is related to the relative situation of regional labor markets and people's willingness to incur the costs of migration if there is a reasonable probability of economic improvement in the other country. Only from 1973-1975 are political and institution reasons of primary importance. In 1976, sociological reasons predominated.     

What Drives Remittances from Saudi Arabia to Pakistan? Home Versus Host Country's Economic Conditions

Saudi Arabia is the largest source country of remittances to Pakistan since the 1970s. This study examined the impact of home versus host country’s economic conditions on remittances from Saudi Arabia to Pakistan. The ARDL bounds testing is used on the annual data set from 1973 to 2014. The study concluded that economic growth in the host country and economic crises in the home country increase remittances. 1% decrease in domestic output increases remittances by 2.79% while 1% increase in sending country’s output growth increases remittances by 5.2% in the long‐run. The bilateral trade has a positive while financial deepening has a negative impact on inflows. The impact of oil shock is insignificant. We suggest cautious foreign policy as remittances depend significantly on the host country’s economic condition that is not directly under the control of the home country but remittances can be sustained with bilateral trade.     

对中国经济运行状况的分析

从经济的投资、消费和出口数据看,中国经济增速确实在下行。为了保持中国经济8%的增速,我们已付出了很高的代价;经过35年的高速增长,在各行各业产能基本过剩的情况下,中国经济增速正在下移。观察1950年代后日本、中国台湾和香港地区经济发展的过程,其经济高速增长后,也是一个台阶又一个台阶地下来。中国不能再靠高投资来推动经济增长。     

Structural shifts in the employment of foreign workers in Austria

The full economic importance of immigration becomes clear only when one examines the concentration of immigrant workers in certain industries and occupations, and this is done in the case of Austria to show the degree of segmentation of the labor market between indigenous and foreign labor. In the course of the 1960s the employment of foreign labor gained importance in Austria. As a consequence, bilateral agreements with the major recruiting countries were made, e.g., with Spain in 1962 and 1969, with Turkey in 1964, and with Yugoslavia in 1966. The reason for the increasing demand for foreign labor was the short supply of indigenous labor due to increasing participation rates and strong economic growth. The demand-pull for foreign labor gained momentum with the onset of the economic boom in 1970, so that by the end of 1973 the number of foreign workers had doubled in comparison to 1970. The 226,800 foreign workers accounted for 8.7% of total employment. The 1974-75 recession and the weak economic development ever since resulted in a decreasing demand for labor. At the same time, the supply of indigenous labor increased as a consequence of a demographic effect and because of increasing participation rates of women. From 1981 to the present, foreign employment decreased again due to the unusually long period of economic stagnation. During 1983, 145,300 foreign workers were engaged, i.e., 5.3% of total employment. The structure for foreign employment now differs greatly from that in the 1960s. The share of women in foreign employment has increased steadily from some 20% in the early 1960s to 31% in 1973 and 40% in 1983 -- a value comparable to the Austrian female share in employment. The reduction of foreign employment since 1973 affected, above all, Yugoslav men. the share of Yugoslavs in foreign employment decreased from 196,300 or 79% in 1973 to 92,200 or 61.7% in 1983. With the duration of foreign employment rising, the disribution of foreign labor over economic branches increased. In the early 1960s the employment of foreign workers was concentrated in 3 branches -- the construction sector (32% of all foreign workers), metal industries (16%), and textile industries (10%). In 1982 only 1/3 of all foreign workers were still employed in these branches as an infiltration by foreign labor had taken place in all sectors. The services sector showed the greatest increase in foreign employment since 1975. There has never been as strong a concentration of 1 nationality in a particular economic branch as in Switzerland, Germany, or France. Case studies in Austria reveal that it was an explicit policy for firms (and also unions and entrepreneur representatives) not to depend on only 1 nationality of foreign workers. According to the case studies, about 1/3 of all foreign workers today occupy jobs which are in direct competition with indigenous labor. Another 1/3 fill jobs which are complementary to indigenous labor. For the remainder it is difficult to say to what extent they belong to one or the other segment of the labor market, because there is no information available on the occupational job structure.     

人口因素如何影响中国未来经济增长

中国过去一直保持10％的经济增长速度,2010年以来人口红利消失后,潜在经济增长率马上降下来。如果我们不接受经济增长速度下降的事实,同时国际上还有强劲需求,那么我们很可能还继续保持很高的增长速度,而导致实际增长率与潜在增长率相偏离。但是欧美金融危机和主权债务危机使得国际需求下降,这反而给我们一个进行速度调整的机会,换句话说就是我国被迫接受调整。这是促进我国经济健康发展的一个意外之喜。因此,不应该通过拉动需求来使经济发展超越潜在增长率,但这并不意味着潜在增长率不可以提高。在人口红利消失、劳动力成本提高的背景下,可以通过提高劳动力供给和提高劳动生产率来提高潜在经济增长率。     

当前经济形势分析及相关政策建议

2014年中国经济增速将低于2013年,季度经济增速可能低于7%:经济依然处于下行周期中;全社会固定资产投资将结束年增长20%以上的历史;中国依然不会出现通货膨胀问题;地方政府债务泡沫、某些产能泡沫有可能破灭并引发短暂的阵痛,但这些小泡沫的破灭有利于经济长期发展、有利于大局。我国经济增速放慢是规律使然,是消化产能过剩的过程中必须经历的,是调整结构、转型升级的过程中必须经历的,是消化刺激政策后遗症的过程中必须经历的,也是深化改革的过程中必须经历的。     

Premarital relationships and livelihoods in Ghana

This study is based on interviews with a sample of 400 single women aged 18-25 years from the Fante ethnic group in Cape Coast, Ghana, in 1991, and on focus groups. This case study illustrates the importance of economic and living arrangement support expected from partners in premarital relationships. Support may be for living and maintenance ('chopmoney', provisions, household items, and rent); for financial security (provision of capital); and for clothing and hairdressing. Women did not always require economic support in premarital relationships. Women expect boyfriends to provide 'chopmoney' (money for food and general upkeep) and contribute some money for the rent. Only 36% of sexually active women expected their boyfriends to supply food provisions. Premarital sexual relationships are used to obtain start-up capital. The author refers to evidence that senior government officials engaged in sexual transactions with clients before loans and credit facilities were offered. 87% of sexually experienced women expected their partners to pay for at least part of clothing expenses. The study revealed that there was considerable disparity between women's expectations and actual receipt of economic support. 56% desired, but only 36% received, 'chopmoney' in full. 40% expected their partners to pay for household furnishings in full, while only 10% did so. 55% expected capital, but only 15% received it. The three most frequently received benefits in full were hair dressing, shoes, and dresses. Men provided most non-negotiable items as a means of "boosting their egos." Many young women rely on the support of men in order to improve their status. Ghanaian men control financial resources and economic power. Mothers of adolescent daughters encourage premarital sexual behavior. Prostitution is considered different from sexual exchange relationships. It is argued that gender inequalities and domestic abuse are perpetuated through sexual exchange relationships.     

Motivation for migration and economic success

"Motives for migration should play a major role in the development of achievement motivation of migrants, which, in turn, should influence economic success. For a sample of guest-workers in Austria it is shown that the simple distinction of economic and non-economic, i.e. family or political motives, does not yield convincing results for the explanation of wages. Economic motivation has to be further differentiated into ?search for success' and ?fear of failure' types. Immigrants with optimistic economic motivation are able to command wages more than 10% higher than individuals migrating for political reasons."     

Family ties and economic stability concerns of migrant labour families in Jordan

74 labor migrant families from various socioeconomic classes in Amman, Jordan were interviewed to examine changes in relationships among family members, extended family, and neighbors and their concerns about economic stability in the host country, Jordan, and the world market. Another purpose was to determine how current migration policies of the Arab oil-producing countries which prohibit labor migrants from bringing their families to the host country affect labor migration among families. The families consisted of either those who did or did not accompany the labor migrant. Overall labor migration affected unaccompanied families more than accompanied families, e.g., only 19% of the unaccompanied families reported increased family unity compared with 56% of accompanied families. Problems within unaccompanied families increased in 43% of the cases but in only 6% of the accompanied families. Many of these problems resulted in children dropping out of school which reflected the control fathers had within the family, separation, or divorce. Yet labor migration reduced family ties with extended family members and neighbors almost equally for both groups. Accompanied families were not as concerned about economic stability in Jordan as unaccompanied families (38% vs. 50%). Perhaps these families tended not to invest remittances received from the labor migrants working in Arab oil-producing countries in Jordan. Both groups were quite concerned about the economic stability in the host countries (66% and 72%, respectively) and the world market (59% and 62%, respectively), however. Since family unity suffers when families do not accompany labor migrants, it is suggested that oil-producing nations that depend on foreign labor should guarantee family unity as a human right.