Combined Exponentially Weighted Moving Average Charts for the Mean and Variance Based on the Predictive Distribution

This article develops combined exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) charts for the mean and variance of a normal distribution. A Bayesian approach is used to incorporate parameter uncertainty. We first use a Bayesian predictive distribution to construct the control chart, and we then use a sampling theory approach to evaluate it under various hypothetical specifications for the data generation model. Simulations are used to compare the proposed charts for different values of both the weighing constant for the exponentially weighted moving averages and for the size of the calibration sample that is used to estimate the in-statistical-control process parameters. We also examine the separate performance of the EWMA chart for the variance.     

Generalized Control Charts for Non-Normal Data Using g-and-k Distributions

Statistical control charts are often used in industry to monitor processes in the interests of quality improvement. Such charts assume independence and normality of the control statistic, but these assumptions are often violated in practice. To better capture the true shape of the underlying distribution of the control statistic, we utilize the g-and-k distributions to estimate probability limits, the true ARL, and the error in confidence that arises from incorrectly assuming normality. A sensitivity assessment reveals that the extent of error in confidence associated with control chart decision-making procedures increases more rapidly as the distribution becomes more skewed or as the tails of the distribution become longer than those of the normal distribution. These methods are illustrated using both a frequentist and computational Bayesian approach to estimate the g-and-k parameters in two different practical applications. The Bayesian approach is appealing because it can account for prior knowledge in the estimation procedure and yields posterior distributions of parameters of interest such as control limits.     

An alternative competing risk model to the Weibull distribution for modelling aging in lifetime data analysis

A simple competing risk distribution as a possible alternative to the Weibull distribution in lifetime analysis is proposed. This distribution corresponds to the minimum between exponential and Weibull distributions. Our motivation is to take account of both accidental and aging failures in lifetime data analysis. First, the main characteristics of this distribution are presented. Then, the estimation of its parameters are considered through maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference. In particular, the existence of a unique consistent root of the likelihood equations is proved. Decision tests to choose between an exponential, Weibull and this competing risk distribution are presented. And this alternative model is compared to the Weibull model from numerical experiments on both real and simulated data sets, especially in an industrial context.     

Control chart for monitoring the Weibull shape parameter under two competing risks

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we propose a control chart to monitor the Weibull shape parameter where the observations are censored due to competing risks. We assume that the failure occurs due to two competing risks that are independent and follow Weibull distribution with different shape and scale parameters. The control charts are proposed to monitor one or both of the shape parameters of competing risk distributions and established based on the conditional expected values. The proposed control chart for both shape parameters is used in certain situations and allows to monitor both shape parameters in only one chart. The control limits depend on the sample size, number of failures due to each risk and the desired stable average run length (ARL). We also consider the estimation problem of the target parameters when the Phase I sample is incomplete. We assumed that some of the products that fail during the life testing have a cause of failure that is only known to belong to a certain subset of all possible failures. This case is known as masking. In the presence of masking, the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm is proposed to estimate the parameters. For both cases, with and without masking, the behaviour of ARLs of charts is studied through the numerical methods. The influence of masking on the performance of proposed charts is also studied through a simulation study. An example illustrates the applicability of the proposed charts.     

A Bayesian sequential design with binary outcome

Several researchers have proposed solutions to control type I error rate in sequential designs. The use of Bayesian sequential design becomes more common; however, these designs are subject to inflation of the type I error rate. We propose a Bayesian sequential design for binary outcome using an alpha‐spending function to control the overall type I error rate. Algorithms are presented for calculating critical values and power for the proposed designs. We also propose a new stopping rule for futility. Sensitivity analysis is implemented for assessing the effects of varying the parameters of the prior distribution and maximum total sample size on critical values. Alpha‐spending functions are compared using power and actual sample size through simulations. Further simulations show that, when total sample size is fixed, the proposed design has greater power than the traditional Bayesian sequential design, which sets equal stopping bounds at all interim analyses. We also find that the proposed design with the new stopping for futility rule results in greater power and can stop earlier with a smaller actual sample size, compared with the traditional stopping rule for futility when all other conditions are held constant. Finally, we apply the proposed method to a real data set and compare the results with traditional designs.     

Robust Bayesian analysis for parallel system with masked data under inverse Weibull lifetime distribution

Abstract

This paper considers the statistical analysis of masked data in a parallel system with inverse Weibull distributed components under type II censoring. Based on Gamma conjugate prior, the Bayesian estimation as well as the hierarchical Bayesian estimation for the parameters and the reliability function of system are obtained by using the Bayesian theory and the hierarchical Bayesian method. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations are provided to compare the performances of the estimates under different masking probabilities and effective sample sizes.     

Economic and economic–statistical designs of VSI Bayesian control chart using Monte Carlo method and ABC algorithm

The usual practice in using a Bayesian control chart to monitor a process is done by taking samples from the process with fixed sampling intervals. Recent studies on traditional control charts have shown that variable sampling interval (VSI) scheme compared to classical scheme (fixed ratio sampling, FRS) helps practitioners to detect process shifts more quickly. In this paper, the effectiveness of VSI scheme on performance of Bayesian control chart has been studied, based on economic (ED) and economic–statistical designs (ESD). Monte Carlo method and artificial bee colony algorithm have been utilized to obtain optimal design parameters of Bayesian control chart (sample size, sampling intervals, warning limit and control limit) since the statistic of this approach does not have any specified distribution. Finally, VSI Bayesian control chart has been compared to FRS Bayesian and VSI X-bar approaches based on ED and ESD, separately. According to the results, it has been found that the performance of VSI Bayesian scheme is better than FRS Bayesian and VSI X-bar approaches.     

Loss-based optimal control statistics for control charts

This work proposes a means for interconnecting optimal sample statistics with parameters of the process output distribution irrespective of the specific way in which these parameters change during transition to the out-of-control state (jumps, trends, cycles, etc). The approach, based on minimization of the loss incurred by the two types of decision errors, leads to a unique sample statistic and, therefore, to a single control chart. The optimal sample statistics are obtained as a solution of the developed optional boundary equation. The paper demonstrates that, for particular conditions, this equation leads to the same statistics as are obtained through the Neyman-Pearson fundamental lemma. Application examples of the approach when the process output distribution is Gamma and Weibull are given. A special loss function representing out-of-control state detection as a pattern recognition problem is presented.     

ON THE EVALUATION OF CONTROL CHART LIMITS BASED ON PREDICTIVE DISTRIBUTIONS

ABSTRACT

We propose a Bayesian approach to obtaining control charts when there is parameter uncertainty. Our approach consists of two stages, (i) construction of the control chart where we use a predictive distribution based on a Bayesian approach to derive the rejection region, and (ii) evaluation of the control chart where we use a sampling theory approach to examine the performance of the control chart under various hypothetical specifications for the data generation model.     

Economic design based on a multivariate Bayesian VSI chart with a dual control limit

In this paper, a multivariate Bayesian variable sampling interval (VSI) control chart for the economic design and optimization of statistical parameters is designed. Based on the VSI sampling strategy of a multivariate Bayesian control chart with dual control limits, the optimal expected cost function is constructed. The proposed model allows the determination of the scheme parameters that minimize the expected cost per time of the process. The effectiveness of the Bayesian VSI chart is estimated through economic comparisons with the Bayesian fixed sampling interval and the Hotelling's T² chart. This study is an in-depth study on a Bayesian multivariate control chart with variable parameter. Furthermore, it is shown that significant cost improvement may be realized through the new model.     

Control Charts for the Variance and Coefficient of Variation Based on Their Predictive Distribution

This article develops a control chart for the variance of a normal distribution and, equivalently, the coefficient of variation of a log-normal distribution. A Bayesian approach is used to incorporate parameter uncertainty, and the control limits are obtained from the predictive distribution for the variance. We evaluate this control chart by examining its performance for various values of the process variance.     

A Bayesian piecewise exponential phase II design for monitoring a time-to-event endpoint

A robust Bayesian design is presented for a single-arm phase II trial with an early stopping rule to monitor a time to event endpoint. The assumed model is a piecewise exponential distribution with non-informative gamma priors on the hazard parameters in subintervals of a fixed follow up interval. As an additional comparator, we also define and evaluate a version of the design based on an assumed Weibull distribution. Except for the assumed models, the piecewise exponential and Weibull model based designs are identical to an established design that assumes an exponential event time distribution with an inverse gamma prior on the mean event time. The three designs are compared by simulation under several log-logistic and Weibull distributions having different shape parameters, and for different monitoring schedules. The simulations show that, compared to the exponential inverse gamma model based design, the piecewise exponential design has substantially better performance, with much higher probabilities of correctly stopping the trial early, and shorter and less variable trial duration, when the assumed median event time is unacceptably low. Compared to the Weibull model based design, the piecewise exponential design does a much better job of maintaining small incorrect stopping probabilities in cases where the true median survival time is desirably large.     

Multivariate Exponentially Weighted Moving Average Charts for a Mean Based on Its Prediction Distribution

This article develops a control chart for a mean vector when it is monitored by a quadratic form in the exponentially weighted observation vector. A Bayesian approach is used to incorporate parameter uncertainty. We first use a Bayesian predictive distribution to construct the control chart, and we then use a sampling theory approach to evaluate it under various hypothetical specifications for the data generation model.     

Bayesian and Non Bayesian Estimations on the Exponentiated Modified Weibull Distribution for Progressive Censored Sample

The four-parameter Exponentiated Modified Weibull (EMW) is considered as an important lifetime distribution. Based on progressive Type-II censored sample, maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimators of the parameters, reliability function, and hazard rate function are derived. Two cases are considered: first, the case of one unknown exponent parameter of EMW and second, the case when two parameters of the EMW are both unknown. The Bayes estimators are studied under squared error and LINEX loss functions. The standard Bayes and importance sampling are considered for the estimation. Monte Carlo simulations are performed under different samples sizes and different censoring schemes for investigating and comparing the methods of estimation.     

Bayesian predictions for compound weibull model

This paper is concerned with a full Bayesian analysis for some prediction problems of the compound model if the underlying distributions are Weibull with unequal shape parameters and the sample is type I censored. A numerical example and computer facilities will be used to illustrate the procedure.     

A novel Bayesian regression model for counts with an application to health data

Discrete data are collected in many application areas and are often characterised by highly-skewed distributions. An example of this, which is considered in this paper, is the number of visits to a specialist, often taken as a measure of demand in healthcare. A discrete Weibull regression model was recently proposed for regression problems with a discrete response and it was shown to possess desirable properties. In this paper, we propose the first Bayesian implementation of this model. We consider a general parametrization, where both parameters of the discrete Weibull distribution can be conditioned on the predictors, and show theoretically how, under a uniform non-informative prior, the posterior distribution is proper with finite moments. In addition, we consider closely the case of Laplace priors for parameter shrinkage and variable selection. Parameter estimates and their credible intervals can be readily calculated from their full posterior distribution. A simulation study and the analysis of four real datasets of medical records show promises for the wide applicability of this approach to the analysis of count data. The method is implemented in the R package BDWreg.     

带线性约束的多元线性回归模型参数估计

本文首先构造线性约束条件下的多元线性回归模型的样本似然函数,利用Lagrange法证明其合理性。其次,从似然函数的角度讨论线性约束条件对模型参数的影响,对由传统理论得出的参数估计作出贝叶斯与经验贝叶斯的改进。做贝叶斯改进时,将矩阵正态-Wishart分布作为模型参数和精度阵的联合共轭先验分布,结合构造的似然函数得出参数的后验分布,计算出参数的贝叶斯估计;做经验贝叶斯改进时,将样本分组,从方差的角度讨论由子样得出的参数估计对总样本的参数估计的影响,计算出经验贝叶斯估计。最后,利用Matlab软件生成的随机矩阵做模拟。结果表明,这两种改进后的参数估计均较由传统理论得出的参数估计更精确,拟合结果的误差比更小,可信度更高,在大数据的情况下,这种计算方法的速度更快。     

Short run spc based upon the second order dynamic linear model for trend detection

Recently, several new applications of control chart procedures for short production runs have been introduced. Bothe (1989) and Burr (1989) proposed the use of control chart statistics which are obtained by scaling the quality characteristic by target values or process estimates of a location and scale parameter. The performance of these control charts can be significantly affected by the use of incorrect scaling parameters, resulting in either an excessive "false alarm rate," or insensitivity to the detection of moderate shifts in the process. To correct for these deficiencies, Quesenberry (1990, 1991) has developed the Q-Chart which is formed from running process estimates of the sample mean and variance. For the case where both the process mean and variance are unknown, the Q-chaxt statistic is formed from the standard inverse Z-transformation of a t-statistic. Q-charts do not perform correctly, however, in the presence of special cause disturbances at process startup. This has recently been supported by results published by Del Castillo and Montgomery (1992), who recommend the use of an alternative control chart procedure which is based upon a first-order adaptive Kalman filter model Consistent with the recommendations by Castillo and Montgomery, we propose an alternative short run control chart procedure which is based upon the second order dynamic linear model (DLM). The control chart is shown to be useful for the early detection of unwanted process trends. Model and control chart parameters are updated sequentially in a Bayesian estimation framework, providing the greatest degree of flexibility in the level of prior information which is incorporated into the model. The result is a weighted moving average control chart statistic which can be used to provide running estimates of process capability. The average run length performance of the control chart is compared to the optimal performance of the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) chart, as reported by Gan (1991). Using a simulation approach, the second order DLM control chart is shown to provide better overall performance than the EWMA for short production run applications     

Control Charts for the Generalized Variance Based on Its Predictive Distribution

This article develops a control chart for the generalized variance. A Bayesian approach is used to incorporate parameter uncertainty. Our approach has two stages, (i) construction of the control chart where we use a predictive distribution based on a Bayesian approach to derive the rejection region, and (ii) evaluation of the control chart where we use a sampling theory approach to examine the performance of the control chart under various hypothetical specifications for the data generation model.     

Moving range EWMA control charts for monitoring the Weibull shape parameter

In this article, we propose an exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control chart for the shape parameter β of Weibull processes. The chart is based on a moving range when a single measurement is taken per sampling period. We consider both one-sided (lower-sided and upper-sided) and two-sided control charts. We perform simulations to estimate control limits that achieve a specified average run length (ARL) when the process is in control. The control limits we derive are ARL unbiased in that they result in ARL that is shorter than the stable-process ARL when β has shifted. We also perform simulations to determine Phase I sample size requirements if control limits are based on an estimate of β. We compare the ARL performance of the proposed chart to that of the moving range chart proposed in the literature.