斐济的民族主义与种族冲突——1987年斐济军事政变的起因分析

由于历史原因和英国殖民统治时期的"分而治之"政策,斐济国内两大种族之间的矛盾和冲突十分尖锐,最终导致了1987年的两次军事政变。个中缘由众多,但在笔者看来,"二战"后民族主义的勃兴以及两大种族之间长期以来的矛盾与冲突,是造成该国政治冲突的根本原因。斐济应摒弃对土著斐济人优越地位的维护,放弃简单的二分法,加快民主进程,重新定义"斐济人"的概念,以缓解政治冲突。     

The impact of financial sanctions: The case of Iran

This study provides a detailed analysis of the impact of financial sanctions on publicly traded companies. We consider the effect of imposing and lifting sanctions on the target country’s traded equities and examine the differences in the reaction of politically connected firms and those without such connections. The paper focuses on Iran due to (1) its sizable financial markets, (2) imposition of sanctions of varying severity and duration on private and state-owned companies, (3) the significant presence of politically connected firms in the stock market, and (4) the unique event of the 2015 nuclear deal, resulting in fairly rapid lifting of a sizable portion of imposed sanctions. We find that sanctions affect politically connected firms more than ordinary firms, have lasting negative effects on profitability ratios, and that politically connected firms stock prices bounce back more slowly after removal of sanctions. Firms targeted by financial sanctions decrease their leverage and increase their cash holding to manage their perceived increase in risk profile.     

The political budget cycles in the presence of a fiscal rule: The case of farm debt waivers in India

Farm debt waivers which are meant to be a one-time settlement of loans have become common in India. This paper finds, after controlling for variables related to farming distress, that the timing of waiver announcements by state governments between 2001-02 and 2018–19 is associated with the timing of elections. This points toward a pattern of policy manipulation that suggests election-year targeting of the largest special interest group in India, namely farming households. The debt waivers, either announced as policies by incumbent governments prior to upcoming elections or as election pledges by political parties which are fulfilled after winning elections, are unanticipated shocks to government revenue expenditure. We find that the waivers are associated with an increased revenue deficit, which is accommodated by a nearly 1/3rd cut in capital outlay to control the fiscal deficit, given the presence of a fiscal rule. Given its path dependence, lower capital expenditure also reduces the quality of government spending in subsequent years.     

Determinants of state long-term debt: The political market framework

Because it focuses on the moderating role of political institutions – which emphasize equilibrium policy outcomes under different institutional arrangements derived from the interaction of policy supply and demand – the political market framework provides useful insights for analyzing the determinants of state long-term debt. Thus, different types of state political institutions should affect the degree of long-term debt in terms of specific demands and supply. Despite the numerous studies that have either applied the political market approach to local governments in policy areas or have analyzed the determinants of long-term debt from only a financial management perspective, few studies have applied the political market framework to state governments. Thus, adopting a state financial management perspective and conducting a panel data analysis using state data from 1980 to 2014, this study identifies the reasons why state governments act on long-term obligations in terms of the political market framework. This study also aims to expand the application of the political market framework to state governments and to integrate determinants of state long-term indebtedness.     

The macroeconomic impact of reforming a PAYG system: The Portuguese case

Abstract   The article analyses the impact of various types of reform options on social security pension system financial sustainability and on a range of macroeconomic variables. The HERPOR model is used to consider the likely effects of parametric reforms of the existing pay-as-you-go system, as well as those of a systemic reform. The article concludes that the former are sufficient to ensure financial sustainability, although they should be accompanied by employment implementation measures. The article concludes that a fully pre-funded system does not seem to be a viable option for policy-makers in the redesigning of social security pension systems, due to the high transition costs involved.     

Regime-specific impact of financial reforms on economic growth in Pakistan

This study uses and proposes a new methodological approach to construct a financial liberalization index on the basis of the dynamic factor model technique. The resulting index is used to investigate the impact of the financial sector reforms in Pakistan on economic growth. Using the Markov regime-switching model over the period 1972–2015, the empirical results showed that the examined relationship is nonlinear, nonmonotonic, state-dependent, and better described by the two-state Markov switching model characterized by the high growth regime and low growth regime. Despite the positive impact of financial liberalization on economic growth in both the high and low growth regimes, financial liberalization relatively strongly affects real GDP growth in the high growth regime. The results further demonstrate that transition probabilities establish an inordinate episode of the low growth regime. Furthermore, the high growth regime is relatively short-lived than the low growth regime. Among the other variables, trade openness and physical capital stock have a positive impact on economic growth, while labor force and government expenditure exert a negative effect on economic growth. Several economic policies are proposed and discussed for better functioning of financial sector development in Pakistan.     

Supply chain performance and economic growth: The impact of COVID-19 disruptions

Reliable supply chains are crucial to the productivity and economic growth of nations. Despite the recognition of its importance, especially brought to the forefront by the challenges of the coronavirus crises, formal research on the contribution of supply chain logistics is less forthcoming. This paper uses data on 130 nations to examine the relative effects of different aspects of supply chain logistics, including overall logistics performance, and the performance of the input and output dimensions of logistics, on economic growth. The results show that improvements in the supply chain logistics performance yield positive growth dividends. Further, the input and output dimensions of logistics performance have positive growth effects, with some quantitative differences. Significantly, the growth impact of logistics performance varies across nations with different growth rates. Implications for public policy and spillovers for COVID-19 initiatives are discussed.     

The dynamics of economic globalization and political development on the welfare state in South Korea

The Korean welfare system has grown over the past 40 years from a limited and selective developmental system into a relatively comprehensive universal system. What explains this dynamic is the interplay between South Korea's global economic integration and its political transition from authoritarian rule to democratic governance. While the corporatist consensus under the authoritarian government limited social welfare to an instrument to promote economic growth and industrialization, the social democratic corporatist consensus under economic globalization has enabled the democratic regime to introduce a relatively universal welfare system.     

主导产业对黑龙江省经济增长的影响

黑龙江省的产业层次低,主导产业对经济增长的带动作用小。主导产业的发展水平决定着区域经济发展的程度和水平。为此,必须从实际出发促进主导产业发展,加大体制创新和技术创新的力度,产业集群是提高区域经济竞争力的一项非常有效的发展模式。     

The social and economic impacts of immigration detention facilities: a South Australian case study

The negative attitudes fostered by political rhetoric against asylum seekers create significant problems when asylum seekers are housed within communities. Much of the community's opposition focuses on the perceived economic and social impacts of large numbers of asylum seekers. However, we currently lack research on the local economic and social impacts of asylum seekers. As a contribution to this evidence base our paper outlines a South Australian case study of the impact of a low security immigration detention facility on the local economy, health services and social cohesion. Our impact assessment found that community concerns were not borne out. There were increases in employment and local expenditure, no reduction in health care services or access, and tensions between residents subsided, as did initially strong reactions against the asylum seekers themselves. The minimal impacts were due to the government and community interventions such as seeking local contracts and providing onsite health services. This case study is used to provide some guidelines for other communities to effectively target the fears that matter most to the community – either through disseminating information that reduces fears and myths, or through planning and interventions that minimise negative impacts and enhance positive benefits. In this way, the arrival of asylum seekers can potentially become one that benefits all community members.     

A critical approach to wage devaluation: The case of Spanish economic recovery

In line with the orientation of EU economic policy, the Spanish government has favoured a strategy of internal devaluation as a way of adjusting price levels within the currency union. The results of empirical studies indicate that the internal devaluation applied in Spain does not seem to have attained the desired goals in terms of reducing the relative prices of exports and consolidating a model of growth based on external demand. Indeed, the estimates drawn up show that tailwinds – the depreciation of the euro and the fall in risk premium as results of the measures taken by the ECB, greater economic activity by trading partners and the fall in the price of oil – exercised a decisive influence in the trends followed by the prices of exports and the balance of trade during the period of crisis management in Spain.     

Social capital and the impact of the recent economic crisis: Comparing the effects of economic and fiscal policy developments

In this contribution, we offer an analysis that evaluates the impact of the recent financial and economic crisis on social capital. An economic crisis offers a unique chance to study people's associational lives, volunteering, network-making, and trust-building under duress. Theoretical perspectives on the relationship between social capital and economic development emphasize a reciprocal relationship between the two. Therefore, we hypothesize that if economic performance is compromised, this might lead to an erosion of social capital. More importantly, however, we also argue that states can actively intervene by means of fiscal policy measures. We will illustrate our approach by comparing 29 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries before and after the crisis. Using qualitative comparative analysis, we demonstrate that imperatives related to fiscal policy stimuli provide leverage on social capital development.     

The political participation of social workers: a comparative study

This article reports on a comparative study that examined the political participation of social workers in KwaZulu-Natal province in South Africa, the state of New South Wales (excluding the Hunter region) in Australia, and New Zealand. Each of these contexts had roughly the same number of social workers, that is, approximately 1,200. It was found that social workers in New Zealand tended to be more politically active than their counterparts in New South Wales and KwaZulu-Natal, and the reasons for this are examined. In the process, New Zealand is presented as a case study of the way in which social work has responded to its political context. Finally, conclusions are drawn as to the engagement of social workers in the policy cycle and of the need for them to become more active politically.     

The impact of gender and disability on the economic well‐being of disabled women in the United Kingdom: A longitudinal study between 2009 and 2014

The present study examined the economic well‐being of disabled and nondisabled men and women in the United Kingdom. Using the 2009–2014 Life Opportunities Survey (N = 6,159 adults), the study is the first longitudinal study to empirically compare the economic well‐being of disabled women in contrast to disabled men and nondisabled men and women. Hierarchical linear modelling and hierarchical linear logistic modelling were used to estimate the longitudinal changes. Findings indicate that, overall, disabled women's economic well‐being improved significantly between 2009 and 2014 even after controlling for other demographic characteristics. However, the improvements were not substantial enough to significantly narrow the economic disparities between disabled women and disabled men and nondisabled men and women. Disabled women remained worse off than disabled men and nondisabled men and women in 2014 as they did in 2009. The findings indicate that intersectional discrimination against disabled women exist in the United Kingdom. Findings from this study provide empirical evidence to support policies that enhance the economic security of disabled women.     

Gender inequality in human capital accumulation and economic growth: a comparative analysis of Pakistan and Sri Lanka

Even though the significance of human capital in the growth literature is well established, little evidence is available on the role of education on growth segregated on a gender basis. The present study has focused on the importance of female education and employment and queried to what extent gender inequality in education and employment has an impact on economic growth in Pakistan and Sri Lanka. To answer this question, a simultaneous equations model covering time period of 1975–2009 has been used and the Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) has been applied. The results have confirmed that the gender gap in education has induced an adverse impact on economic growth, both directly and indirectly, through rapid population growth and low investment. Results also show that though there is gender inequality in human capital accumulation in both counties but the intensity is higher in Pakistan as compared to Sri Lanka. The study explored the opportunities to encourage the role of females in the developmental activities of these countries. In view of the fact that gender inequality in education is critical for growth, the study recommends that rather than slashing the PSDP (Public Sector Development Program), Pakistan needs to promote investment in human capital and that there should be equal opportunity for education and employment for both males and females in both south Asian Countries.     

The value of a name: Estimating the economic impact of public land designation

Public land designations have been shown to have significant impact on their contextual regional economies. This paper reviews the existing literature on how public lands impact the proximate regional economies in which they are situated. Based on this collected wisdom the paper synthesizes past lessons into a comprehensive impact methodology. This methodology distinguishes quality effects in terms of visitors’ willingness to pay for sites of higher quality and quantity effects in terms of additional visitation to such sites to give a more comprehensive methodology for characterizing visitation and economic impact of protected area designation. We focus on National Monuments and National Parks, given that these two types of public lands have the broadest popular exposure and feature the most reliable data. A case study is then presented for a hypothetical protected area in Ferry County, Washington, USA, applying this new methodology to assess the likely economic effects of different types of protected areas.     

Cognitive dissonance and political attitudes: The case of Canada

While scholars accept that attitudes have an impact on behavior, cognitive dissonance theory asserts that behavior can, in turn, affect attitudes. The theory suggests attitudes may be transformed by the simple act of voting. Informed by dissonance theory and employing election study survey data from three Canadian federal elections, this article considers the impact of cognitive, affective, and behavioral factors on changes in party evaluations, arguing that elections serve as a significant stimulus for attitude change. Dissonance theory is found to be compatible with observed attitude changes between pre- and post-election questionnaires. Findings have implications for the study of attitude formation and change, the effects that campaigns and elections have upon voters, and survey design.     

How crime affects economic performance: The case of Guatemala

The impact of crime on economic growth is obviously substantial, but measuring the degree of its effects on a country's economic performance is subject to a great deal of uncertainty. This paper primarily attempts to close this gap using the economics of crime monitoring model, a new economic instrument that could be used to evaluate the impact of crime on economic performance. Guatemala was used to illustrate the applicability of the model from where analyses provide a coherent evaluation of the degree to which crime can affect a country's economic performance.     

The Troubled Families Programme: Learning about policy impact through realist case study research

This article aims to critically explore how qualitative case study research that is founded on realist principles can fundamentally enhance social policy evaluation methodologies and, in turn, provide improved learning for policy makers and practitioners. We suggest that these methodological advantages are accrued through the careful construction of theory-based explanations of “how” policy programmes work thereby addressing the limitations of quasi-experimental methods—namely, a focus on and prioritisation of outcome measures. The paper situates this key argument within wider, long-standing debates about evidence-based policy making and what constitutes “evidence” of impact in social policy. It does so through reflection on the contentious and contradictory knowledge claims that surround the Troubled Families Programme and evaluative claims regarding its efficacy. In conclusion and looking forward, we suggest that there remains much scope to combine “intensive” qualitative case studies with “extensive” quantitative measures within local and national evaluations of complex, multidimensional social policies, such as the Troubled Families Programme.