建立公平绩效评价的分值转换模型研究

有效激励的关键在公平,而公平激励的基础是准确的绩效评分。在国内外绩效评价理论向顾客、雇员、经营者和非财务化方向发展的同时,本文注意对传统绩效评分方法指标打分方面存在的局限性,提出了科学合理的绩效评分方法应该满足的三个必要条件,即绩效分值应连续取值、绩效分值与绩效数量成非线性关系、以及正指标和相关逆指标等价互换性等。进而建立了满足上述三个条件的绩效评分模型,同时,论文对该评分模型的参数和应用作了实际分析和测算。     

基于元网络分析的重大基础设施建设项目风险评估框架与实证

重大基础设施项目具有战略性、集成性、复杂性等特征，项目容易受到多种风险因素的综合影响，导致项目目标的偏离。现有风险评估与风险决策的方法缺乏对于风险因素、风险事件之间关联的分析。为了实现重大基础设施建设项目综合系统的风险评估，本文采用元网络分析方法，构建项目目标、风险事件和风险因素的交互模型，揭示重大基础设施风险事件发生机制的黑箱过程。风险评估过程中，通过多个网络叠加运算分析每个风险因素对于各种风险事件以及项目各目标的影响情况，改进了以往仅对风险因素单一影响程度的风险评估方法。同时，本研究选择我国某河流水电站过坝运输项目方案比选的风险评估过程验证方法的适用性。     

SCIENCE-BASED PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF THE MAINFRAME COMPUTER INDUSTRY

This paper reports on the results of an empirical study of product development in a complex and novel environment. The work is based on field investigations of recent product development projects performed by all leading mainframe computer producers. The projects focused on the development of complex products based on advanced technologies and probed deeply into their science base. The results show striking differences in development lead time and research and development productivity between different projects. The analysis relates these performance differences to the process for the integration of new technology. Organizations that emphasize the accumulation of system-level knowledge of product and production process and its use in technology evaluation and selection are associated with high productivity and short development lead times. This appears to have a greater impact on development performance in this novel environment than more traditional factors, such as processes for effective crossfunctional integration and for overlapping problem solving.     

It's Only Temporary: Time Frame and the Dynamics of Creative Project Teams

The success of many knowledge‐intensive industries depends on creative projects that lie at the heart of their logic of production. The temporality of such projects, however, is an issue that is insufficiently understood. To address this, we study the perceived time frame of teams that work on creative projects and its effects on project dynamics. An experiment with 267 managers assigned to creative project teams with varying time frames demonstrates that, compared to creative project teams with a relatively longer time frame, project teams with a shorter time frame focus more on the immediate present, are less immersed in their task and utilize a more heuristic mode of information processing. Furthermore, we find that time frame moderates the negative effect of team conflict on team cohesion. These results are consistent with our theory that the temporary nature of creative projects shapes different time frames among project participants, and that it is this time frame that is an important predictor of task and team processes.     

A mathematical model for industrial project evaluation

Different approaches to the evaluation of alternative industrial projects range from listing of subjective factors for use as guidelines on the one hand to construction of mathematical models with quantitative objective data on the other. This paper presents the method of developing a comprehensive model with all relevant factors, both subjective and objective. The approach used here is to identify and evaluate all important objective and subjective factors on consideration of the macro-level national objectives as well as the micro-economic investment criteria for each alternative project, and to convert them into consistent and dimensionless indices which are finally combined together to yield the appropriate project measure of utility in each case for comprehensive evaluation. Thus, the model, presented here, can provide a new tool for industrial project evaluation and also for establishing priorities among projects competing for allocation of resources.     

信息系统外包决策的AHP/PROMETHEE方法

针对信息系统外包项目优选这一重要问题,在已有方法的基础上,结合层次分析法与偏好顺序结构评估法,提出了一种基于这两种方法相结合的信息系统外包项目选择决策方法。以管理、战略、技术、经济、质量与风险6项因素作为评价准则,用层次分析法确定信息系统外包项目选择问题的层次结构与评价准则的权重,用偏好顺序结构评估法确定信息系统外包项目的排序,并通过算例说明该方法的有效性。     

风险条件下研发项目改进DEA选择模型

研发项目是企业提高竞争力的关键,研发项目选择关系到企业的战略和未来发展趋势。研发项目在生命周期内面临技术风险、突发风险和市场风险,本文考虑到研发项目的风险特征,结合企业战略,构建了基于效率排序的研发项目选择模型。首先,本文对研发项目的有效性和相对于其它备选项目的相对优势进行分析;然后针对数据包络分析模型排序的不足,结合平衡计分卡理念,规范研发项目投入的比例,引入实物期权理论,改进数据包络分析模型,实现了对研发项目的效率排序;最后通过实际算例对模型进行验证、横向对比和敏感性分析,结果表明：相对于标准数据包络分析模型,本文提出的模型具有更高的效率区分度,并且能够敏感地捕捉到研发项目投入和产出的变化对效率影响的演变过程。     

基于copula的追随者银行的企业项目总体风险评价模型

基于追随者银行的企业项目总体风险评价问题是指当有银行作为先行者介入一个项目时,后续的其它另一个银行作为追随者银行需要将先行者银行的信用风险和所要参与投资的企业项目风险综合加以考虑、从而独立判断项目投资的总体风险大小并进行投资决策。由于任何一家银行都只能熟悉某一些领域、某一些地区、某一些国家的项目,这就导致追随者银行在无法充分掌握项目信息时,需要以先行者银行的信用风险大小为参照物之一来推断企业项目的总体风险,这不仅仅对投资和贷款业务开展较晚的例如中国邮政储蓄银行这样的商业银行有着重要现实意义,而且对所有商业银行的投资活动都有重要的指导意义。通过先行者银行信用风险与项目风险反映企业项目总体风险,本研究建立了基于Copula函数的追随者银行的企业项目总体风险评价模型。本文主要的创新与特色是通过确定先行者银行的信用风险R_F与项目风险R_p的函数关系,进而确定企业项目总体风险R_T,解决了追随者银行所要测算企业项目风险的问题。总体风险模型的稳定性检验表明,在95%的置信水平下,对追随者银行来说,不论多大样本,其所要投资项目的总体风险中的先行者银行信用风险R_F与所要投资的项目风险R_p的重要程度分别为W₁=0.428、W₂=0.572。     

An Evaluation of the Consultant Workshop Model in a Human Service Setting

The purpose of the present study was to document and evaluate an application of the consultant-workshop model commonly employed by Organizational Behavior Management consultants. The consultation took place in a nonprofit human service setting that delivers behavioral services to children diagnosed with autism and their families. Workshop attendees were 13 senior therapists each of whom oversaw six to eight instructor therapists who provided behavioral services to clients. The training took place three years prior to this evaluation across five months and four workshop sessions. Participants learned to pinpoint, measure, diagnose, and intervene and then they presented their project at the last workshop and these projects were documented. When possible, follow-up information was gathered to determine the extent to which this approach facilitated maintenance of the projects and generalization to other opportunities for performance improvement. Results indicated that projects were, in general, very effective. At follow-up, some components of the projects remained in place and limited evidence indicated that the performance improvements maintained or generalized. Based on the findings, recommendations for improving the workshop model are provided.     

Monopoly Union Wage Setting and Evaluation of Public Projects: An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Approach

ABSTRACT This paper contains cost-benefit rules for public projects in a small open economy with a tradeable and non-tradeable sector, where wage setting is done by a representative household. The interpretation, with regard to traditional trade union theory, is in terms of a general equilibrium version of a monopoly union model. The intertemporal character of the model makes it possible to consider public projects which involve the creation of infrastructure that improves the future productivity of both labour and capital. A special feature of the model is the introduction of endogenous investment behaviour. However, since private investment is optimally adjusted in the initial equilibrium, envelope properties guarantee that first-order projects will only have second-order repercussions through changed investment behaviour, which means that indirect changes in private investment do not enter the project evaluation rules for small projects.     

基于决策导向的企业内在价值评估与案例研究

针对企业决策信息优化的现实需求,应用企业战略管理和业绩评价的相关理论,在重新定义内在价值的基础上,探讨了其评估的必要性和可行性,并据以设计了评估技术方案。随后以宝钢股份公司为研究对象,对其内在价值进行了模拟评估。研究认为:企业内在价值是企业在要素市场和商品市场规律制约下,受历史惯性、现行结构和演进态势共同影响的现金流量折现的专业判断,是企业行为定位和态势的集合;通过试点企业内在价值评估,可以发挥其检验账面价值和制衡市场价值的决策参考功效。     

Defining Problems Fast and Slow: The U‐shaped Effect of Problem Definition Time on Project Duration

This study examines how time spent in problem definition affects problem solving in projects such as Six Sigma projects. Our hypotheses are tested using data collected from 1558 Six Sigma projects in a company. The results show evidence of a U‐shaped relationship between the amount of time spent in the Define phase and project duration. This finding suggests that spending too little time on problem definition potentially causes poor problem formulation, which leads to deficient problem solving and lengthens overall project time. On the other hand, too much time spent on problem definition can lead to unneeded delays in project completion due to diminishing returns on problem definition efforts. Furthermore, the optimal balance between spending too little and too much time depends on prior project experience and project complexity. Prior project experience reduced project completion time and weakened the U‐shaped effect. Conversely, complex projects took longer and appeared to show some evidence of a stronger U‐shaped effect; this suggests balancing the time spent in the Define phase was more challenging for complex projects. Our study also underscores the importance of managing project duration, as projects that were completed faster tended to be associated with higher project savings.     

基于理想解法的动态评价方法研究

为了比较多个系统在不同时刻的总体发展水平,需要进行动态评价。将二维数据加入时序数据扩展为三维数据,提出基于理想解法的动态评价方法,该方法既考虑评价指标值差异程度又考虑指标值增长程度,既可以得到各评价对象各时刻的综合评价值及排序,也可以得到各评价对象在某个时间段内总体的评价值和排序结果。最后用一个实例说明本研究实际应用上的有效性。基于理想解的动态评价方法给比较多个系统在不同时刻的总体发展水平(动态评价)提供了思路,是综合评价方法研究的有益补充,可以利用该方法进行应用研究。     

应用EN、PCA和RBF网络评价建设项目动态联盟的候选投标项目

基于建设项目动态联盟候选投标项目评价的内涵分析,确定了候选投标项目评价的决定因素,构建了候选投标项目评价的指标体系。首先通过计算欧氏贴近度,剔除了贴近度较小的指标,然后采用主成分分析将众多指标进行综合,消除样本间的信息重叠,降低RBF网络的输入维数。针对候选投标项目评价系统的非线性特征,采用RBF网络高度非线性映射能力,对某建设项目动态联盟的候选投标项目进行了评价。评价结果表明EN、PCA与RBF网络相结合的方法比PCA与RBF网络相结合的方法及单纯的RBF网络方法具有较高的精确度和较好的拟合效果。整个数据处理过程用软件完成,成本低廉、运算速度快捷,能够克服数据处理流程的复杂性,具有较好的实用性。     

Effective leadership and the allocation and exercise of power in organizations

We experimentally investigate whether delegation can be an effective leadership behavior to motivate followers. In particular, we study how the allocation and exercise of power – the right to choose projects – by leaders affects the subsequent implementation of the chosen projects by followers. To isolate the pure motivational effect of delegation, we focus on whether the amount of effort that followers exert to implement the exact same project depends on who has chosen the project and on what information was available when making the project choice. We find that followers implement projects efficiently if they have chosen them themselves, but reduce implementation effort if the same projects are imposed on them by leaders. But this motivational effect of delegation is persistent if and only if followers must implement projects that they themselves would not have chosen.     

基于拍卖机制的资源转移时间型动态分布式多项目调度

实践中,企业并行实施地域上分散的多个项目时,资源在各子项目之间的转移时间是影响多项目整体进度的关键因素,同时在动态多项目环境下,新项目不断到达且到达时间不可预知使得制定多项目调度计划遭遇更大困难。本文在动态环境下对资源转移时间型分布式多项目调度问题进行建模和求解,基于多代理系统建立分布式多项目调度问题的动态模型,并将拍卖理论引入其中,设计一种基于时间窗拍卖机制的分布式多代理系统(DMAS/ATW),在动态环境和资源转移时间约束下为多项目配置全局资源。通过一个具体的分布式多项目示例详细分析DMAS/ATW算法的动态调度过程,并基于MPSPLIB中的分布式多项目算例开展数值实验。实验结果表明：无资源转移时间约束时,DMAS/ATW算法求得的平均项目延迟同比相关文献中的DMAS/RIA算法最多减少42%,平均减少26%;有资源转移时间约束时,DMAS/ATW算法对1/3算例集的求解结果优于DMAS/RIA算法在无资源转移时间约束时的结果,验证了本文DMAS/ATW算法求解效果的优异性。对算例规模和全局资源利用系数的实验分析还表明,DMAS/ATW算法对不同规模和资源约束紧张程度的算例都具有良好的适应性。     

基于FNN的软件项目绩效评价模型研究

从分析软件项目绩效评价指标体系不完善、评价方法不规范和模型考虑因素过于单一入手,应用统计分析理论建立软件组织状态、软件项目自身特征的指标体系;以文献研究的方式,界定软件项目绩效的内涵;提出了一种新的网络拓扑结构设计方法,建立了基于模糊神经网络的软件项目绩效评价模型;引入改进粒子群学习算法,准确高效地解决了评价模型连接权系数的确定问题。实证研究表明,该模型能够有效地评价软件项目绩效和识别项目风险因素,对软件组织制定风险规避策略、改善项目绩效水平、提供了决策支持信息。     

更新信号的阶段性融资效应:基于众筹市场的跨类别实证研究

在众筹项目融资过程中,融资人面对两难选择：一是尽可能详细宣传项目以吸引投资者,同时又担心创意泄露,不会一次性把所有的信息公之于众。通常,融资人会选择合适的时间通过众筹平台将项目创意和进展分阶段地发布给投资者。为此,本文研究了众筹项目的阶段性文本更新对融资成功率的影响,采用来自Kickstarter上的243,730条更新文本作为研究数据。首先,对更新信息进行预处理,采用文本层次聚类对更新文本进行主题识别,得到6类信号更新主题：进度汇报、内容更新、回报有关、时间提醒、表示感谢、社会化推广。随后,针对三个不同的融资阶段（前期、中期和后期）,探究不同的信息更新主题在不同阶段对成功融资的影响。对于不同的项目类别,投资者关注的重点存在差异,为此研究了不同项目类别中的各个融资阶段应该突出的信号主题,同时还检验了内部信号主题与外部信号主题对融资影响的差异。总体而言,频繁的信号更新有助于项目融资成功,而且在中后期的更新可以更加有效的提高融资绩效。对于信号更新主题,表示感谢、进度汇报和时间提醒等外部信号更新的效果比另外三类效果好得多,不同项目类别之间的信号更新策略存在显著差异,生活类项目与体验类项目的信号更新策略基本一致,而艺术类项目则显著不同于其他类别的项目。本文丰富了我们对更新信号的阶段性融资效应的理解,为互联网金融研究以及用户行为模式研究提供新视角。     

Risk,Process Maturity,and Project Performance: An Empirical Analysis of US Federal Government Technology Projects

In recent years, there has been increasing pressure on the US federal government to reduce spending and improve the management of its technology projects. Mitigating the adverse impact of risks on the performance of these projects presents a significant challenge for its stakeholders. Our research examines this challenge in two steps. First, we identify and define a set of salient risks in federal technology projects—specifically, complexity risk and contracting risk in the planning process, and execution risk in the execution process. Next, we investigate whether higher levels of process maturity, assessed by the Capability Maturity Model Integration (CMMI) framework, mitigate the negative effect of project risks on project performance. The analysis of time‐series data collected from 82 federal technology projects across 519 quarterly time periods indicates that each of the three types of risks has a significant negative effect on project performance. This finding highlights the practical significance of managing these risks in the federal technology project context. Further, we find that increasing levels of process maturity attenuate the negative effect of project risks on the performance of federal technology projects. However, the attenuation effects are consequential only at high levels of project risks; at low levels of project risk, increasing levels of process maturity can adversely affect project performance. To demonstrate the financial implications of increasing process maturity levels in federal technology projects, we examine the magnitude of project cost savings (and overruns) across different levels of CMMI and project risks. In summary, our study contributes to the sparse literature on public sector operations by addressing the understudied context of federal technology projects, and provides a nuanced examination of the implications of process maturity in managing the risk to performance relationship in such projects.     

Financial planning for new products: Part I—Basis for model formulation

In a previous paper the author presented a staged approach methodology for the evaluation and selection of R & D projects. The present paper is intended to serve as its complement.The aim is the formulation of a matching overall long range budget planning policy which will attempt to answer the questions of “how many projects to prove” and “how much to fund” on the basis of satisfying the company growth objective.To achieve the above purpose, a staged budget planning model has been developed which recognizes and utilizes the specific attributes of the various R & D stages. Tje project stage survival rate and project stage cost ratio concepts are discussed. A steady flow of projects through the various R & D stage is maintained. The aim of the program is to produce periodically a planned number of new products fro commercial investment.This methodology may apply to R & D program with a sufficient number of moderately sized projects that justify the use of survival rate and cost ratio values. It should be constructed as a tentative effort for possible use within the staged limitations.