The impact of differences in the levels of technology on international labor migration

In this paper we analyze the patterns of international labor migration in a two-country world where one country's production technology is superior to that of the other country. We exploit an overlapping-generations model which enables us to trace the relevant dynamic considerations. We find that in the absence of international capital movements labor will migrate from the technologically-inferior to the technologically-superior country unless the stationary autarkic equilibrium is characterized by over-investment relative to the Golden Rule and the long-run elasticity of the interest rate with respect to the technological level is sufficiently large, in which case migration will be from the technologically-superior country.This paper, presented at the 6th World Congress of the Econometric Society, Barcelona, August 22–29, 1990, is a revised version of Discussion Paper No. 34, Harvard University Migration and Development Program.     

基于国际人力资本流动视角的中印技术创新模式比较研究

文章通过构建企业创新生产函数并引入国际人力资本流动因素,对中印两国技术创新的影响因素进行计量分析,并重点考察了国际人力资本流动的作用。实证结果表明,中国的技术创新主要来自高研发投入和以FDI技术溢出为代表的国际技术扩散,而印度则更多地依赖国际人力资本流动引致的技术创新、内需及制度方面的政府支持,以FDI为代表的国际技术扩散对其技术创新作用甚微。印度在国际人力资本流动推动技术创新方面比中国更具优势,中国技术创新模式虽然取得了一定成绩,但与印度依靠人才国际化推动创新的模式相比潜力相对不足。     

人力资本对我国经济增长作用的实证分析

随着信息时代的到来,以教育投入体现出的人力资本已成为决定一国经济实力和国际竞争力的关键因素。本文就人力资本对经济增长的作用进行了实证分析,认为我国要想保持经济持续增长的势头,就必须不断地提高技术水平和人力资本水平,以促进生产率的持续增长。     

Effects of capital taxation on economies with different demographic changes: short term versus long term

We examine the effect of source-based capital taxation on capital accumulation in countries with endogenous fertility and free international capital mobility. When fertility is constant, a tax cut accelerates domestic capital accumulation through international arbitrage and exerts negative influences on the welfare of a foreign country. In contrast, with endogenous fertility, a tax cut by an economy with a higher tax rate and exporting capital may deter capital accumulation and hence lower the welfare in not only domestic but also foreign economies in the long term, although the tax cut may accelerate domestic capital accumulation in the short term.     

A Profile of the World's Young Developing Country International Migrants

Individual‐level census and household survey data are used to present a rich profile of young developing country international migrants around the world. They are found to comprise a large share of the flow of migrants, particularly among migrants to other developing countries, with the age distribution of migrants peaking in the late teens or early twenties. Detailed data are presented on the age and sex composition of migrants, on whether young migrants move alone or with a parent or spouse, on their participation in schooling and work in the destination country, on the types of jobs they have, and on the incidence and age of return migration. The results suggest a high degree of commonality in the youth immigrant experience across a number of destination countries. Recent developing country young migrants tend to work in similar occupations and are more concentrated in these occupations than recent older migrants or young immigrants who arrived at an earlier age. Nevertheless, there is also considerable heterogeneity among young immigrants with respect to school attendance and work in their destination country. The potential of international migration for building human capital is significant but far from being fully used.     

坚持计划生育不动摇

一段时期以来,关于我国计划生育问题的争论甚嚣尘上,一些人认为计划生育减少了我国未来社会的劳动力数量,增加了未来社会的养老负担,削弱了中华民族未来的国际竞争力和可持续发展能力。提出废止计划生育、甚至鼓励生育的主张。事实是否真的如这些人所言,我们确实应该停止计划生育呢？对此。本文通过对我国经济社会发展所必须的主要资源人均占有量的国际比较．通过继续实行计划生育20-30年后的我国全社会供养负担率的严格测算,指出：由于人均资源的严重不足,要实现我国经济社会的可持续发展,我们必须继续实行严格的计划生育政策。严格而又充分地执行现行计划生育政策,虽然在一定时期内全社会的养老负担会逐步加大。但由于新出生人口的比重下降,全社会的供养负担率并不会上升。因此．我们不仅有必要、而且也有可能坚持计划生育不动摇。     

食品安全对低收入群体人力资本投资收益的影响

健康是人力资本持续获得投资收益的基本前提和保证。由于低收入群体有更大概率选择非安全食品,所以食品安全在很大程度上就与低收入群体的健康状况相关,势必会影响这些弱势群体原本就较低的人力资本投资收益的获得,如果任由非安全食品充斥农村市场,不但会导致低收入群体健康状况的下降,而且由于低收入群体的人力资本收益受到影响,还会在长期内造成更大的收入差距。     

Human capital,technological progress and the demographic transition*

We emphasize the importance to consider components of population growth — fertility and mortality ‐ separately, when modeling the mutual interaction between population and economic growth. Our model implies that two countries with the same population growth will not converge towards the same level of per capita income. The country with the lower level of birth and death rates will be better off in the long run. Introducing a spill over effect of average human capital on total productivity our model implies multiple equilibria as illustrated in Becker el al. (1990) and Strulik (1999). Besides the existence of a low and high level equilibrium ‐ as characterized by low and high levels of per capita output respectively ‐ we show the existence of multiple low level (Malthusian) equilibria. Initial conditions and parameters of technological progress and human capital investment determine whether an economy is capable to escape the low level equilibrium trap and to enjoy sustained economic growth.     

解决跨国劳动力养老保险权益可携性问题的国际经验借鉴

随着经济全球化不断深入,劳动力跨国流动将越来越频繁,反过来它将有助于全球经济合作和一体化。对跨国劳动力进行社会保护的重要性由此也更加突出,其中解决好养老保险权益可携性问题将可以实现劳动力输出国、输入国和劳动者之间的三赢。全球不同国家已经对跨国劳动力的养老保险问题做出规定,并在多边或双边层次上展开合作,已经取得了一些较好的经验。我国作为一个劳动力资源大国和经济大国,劳动力跨国流动的规模将不断扩大,也需要高度重视跨国养老权益的保护。     

科教兴国 重在教育

在知识经济时代,投入成本中的知识和技术含量不断扩大,劳动和资本的含量不断缩小。在经济全球化冲击下,传统的劳动力资源丰富、劳动力成本低的比较成本优势,会趋于劣势。国际经济竞争的焦点已从传统的资源和价格竞争转向知识和人才的竞争 ,教育必须优先发展。     

影响牧区牧民幸福感因素的实证研究——天祝藏族自治县调查报告

改革开放以来。我国经济建设取得了辉煌成就,目前,部分地区甚至一些大城市的人均收入已赶上发达国家．但其总体幸福水平不尽人意。相反,有调查显示收入水平明显大幅度低于城市居民的农民。其生活满意感超过了城市居民。出现了“幸福悼论”现象。本文依据贫困牧区县的调查资料,运用ordered logit model对牧民幸福感同收入及若干非经济因素之间关系的维度和强度进行了考量。在假定牧区宗教及文化习俗对牧民的幸福感均有恒定影响的前提下,分析结果显示．牲畜数量是牧民的主要幸福源泉;牧区女性的幸福感要明显低于男性;牧民收入水平尚较低的情况下。人均年收入同幸福感显著正相关;牧民自身的教育投入对幸福感的提高起抑制作用：以30岁为拐点．牧区成年人和老年人的幸福感相对低于青年人;遇到资金周转困难时,银行对牧民家庭的贷款有助于改善幸福状况：物质条件对幸福感不具有明显的影响。     

Some macroeconomic aspects of global population aging

Across the demographic transition, declining mortality followed by declining fertility produces decades of rising support ratios as child dependency falls. These improving support ratios raise per capita consumption, other things equal, but eventually deteriorate as the population ages. Population aging and the forces leading to it can produce not only frightening declines in support ratios but also very substantial increases in productivity and per capita income by raising investment in physical and human capital. Longer life, lower fertility, and population aging all raise the demand for wealth needed to provide for old-age consumption. This leads to increased capital per worker even as aggregate saving rates fall. However, capital per worker may not rise if the increased demand for wealth is satisfied by increased familial or public pension transfers to the elderly. Thus, institutions and policies matter for the consequences of population aging. The accumulation of human capital also varies across the transition. Lower fertility and mortality are associated with higher human capital investment per child, also raising labor productivity. Together, the positive changes due to human and physical capital accumulation will likely outweigh the problems of declining support ratios. We draw on estimates and analyses from the National Transfer Accounts project to illustrate and quantify these points.     

Income per Natural: Measuring Development for People Rather Than Places

It is easy to learn the average income of a resident of El Salvador or Albania. But there is no systematic source of information on the average income of a Salvadoran or Albanian. We estimate a new statistic: income per natural—the mean annual income of all people born in a given country, regardless of where those people now reside. Income per natural often differs substantially from income per resident, both in its mean and in its distribution. A large part of this difference is caused by movement across borders. Indeed, for people from a number of developing countries, departing their country of birth is one of the most important sources of poverty reduction and material advancement. If economic development is that which raises human well‐being, then crossing international borders is not an alternative to economic development; it is a form of economic development.     

改革开放以来我国对外劳务输出发展研究

中国正在努力完成从人口大国到人力资源大国的转变,并实施"走出去"战略。在这一背景之下,积极参与国际劳务市场,促进我国的人力资源开发,将具有重要的现实意义。积极开展对外劳务合作,将会促使我国劳动力资源更加有效地参与国际劳务市场。为了更好地开展对外劳务输出,需要认真研究相关各国劳动力资源的未来变化趋势,及时掌握各国劳动力市场供需情况、有关劳务政策新动向以及市场变化情况等。这样才能更好地制定劳务输出计划,扩大劳务输出规模。在增加劳务输出数量的同时,还需要不断提高劳务人员的综合素质。     

西北五省区人力资本存量及投资现状分析

西北五省区属于我国的欠发达地区,其人力资本存量与东、中部①省份相比,明显偏低。因为人力资本存量是一国或一地区经济持续、稳定发展的重要依托,所以加大人力资本投资力度,增加人力资本存量,对于西北五省区尤为重要。文章按此主线展开,并提出了一些参考建议。     

中国步入人口老龄化社会的经济学思考

按国际划分标准,一个国家如果60岁以上的老年人或65岁以上的老年人在总人口中的比例如果分别超过了10%或7%的话,即可看作达到了人口老龄化。中国的人口老龄化的势头正在引起全世界关注。当21世纪钟声敲响的时候,我国已经进入人口老龄型国家。目前我国老年人口有1.3亿,占世界老年人口的五分之一,并且继续以年均3.2%的速度递增。预计到2010年,我国的老年人口将达到2.3亿。到2040年,我国老年人口将达到4亿,占总人口的1/4。发展老年产业是关乎构建和谐社会、维系社会安定以及弘扬中华民族优良传统的大事业,迫在眉睫。     

Educational Pairings,Motherhood, and Women’s Relative Earnings in Europe

As a consequence of the reversal of the gender gap in education, the female partner in a couple now typically has as much as or more education compared with the male partner in most Western countries. This study addresses the implications for the earnings of women relative to their male partners in 16 European countries. Using the 2007 and 2011 rounds of the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (N = 58,292), we investigate the extent to which international differences in women’s relative earnings can be explained by educational pairings and their interaction with the motherhood penalty on women’s earnings, by international differences in male unemployment, or by cultural gender norms. We find that the newly emerged pattern of hypogamy is associated with higher relative earnings for women in all countries and that the motherhood penalty on relative earnings is considerably lower in hypogamous couples, but neither of these findings can explain away international country differences. Similarly, male unemployment is associated with higher relative earnings for women but cannot explain away the country differences. Against expectations, we find that the hypogamy bonus on women’s relative earnings, if anything, tends to be stronger rather than weaker in countries that exhibit more conservative gender norms.     

跨国移民与学缘网络——以日本D大学中国人研究者为个案

国际移民的研究中一直以关注移民的文化适应、移民与移入地居民的互动、移民网络的建构及移民社区的形成为主流,但是当今世界的国际移民群体已经发生了分化．不仅存在低人力资本的国际移民,同样存在着高人力资本的移民,他们的受教育程度、社会经济地位普遍高于移人地居民,本研究通过70个样本的个案研究发现,在他们的国际移民实践中,对血缘和地缘网络的依赖程度十分有限,他们更热衷于构建跨越区域空间的学缘网络、这不仅成为他们孤独的移民生活的情感寄托,也成为他们职业发展的需要。     

Beggar thy thrifty neighbour

This paper explores the international spillover effects of ageing through capital markets when countries have different pension systems. We use a two-country two-period overlapping-generations model, where the two countries only differ in their pension schemes. Two forms of population ageing are considered, namely, an increase in longevity and a fall in fertility. It is shown that, in the long run, a country using a funded pension system experiences negative spillovers from the fact that the other country uses a pay-as-you-go system. The short-run spillovers, however, are opposite to the spillovers in the long run.