Pregnancy status and unwanted births

Pregnancy status was examined in this study of 590 rural and 377 urban married women 15-45 years old from the northern Mindanao region of the Philippines. Pregnancy status was measured in terms of a Likertlike format of 32 statements pertaining to opinions on physical appearance, health concerns during pregnancy, attitudes of husbands and family members, and social activities during pregnancy. 16 items were identified by factor analysis as appropriate indicators. Status is related to the social benefits derived from the pregnancy period as a benefit with costs. Perception of pregnancy is related to unwanted births. Principal component analysis lead to the characteristics of SELF, which reflects feelings about self and how others relate to her pregnancy; WANT, which indicates the desires that influenced her pregnancy; and OTHERS, which reflects her feelings about how others treat her. Pregnancy Status Index Scores (PSINDEX) was a computation of the sum of scores for each variable divided by the number of items answered. The Eigenvalue for the 3 components accounted for 51.3% of the variance. The results showed that rural women had higher evaluations for all 3 components of PSINDEX, which means that pregnancy is seen as a beneficial means to improve marital and social relations as well as personal importance. SELF was the moist important category for both urban, (4.54) and rural women (4.65). Urban residents who considered SELF more important tended to be younger, less well educated, less modern, and less socially well off. In the bivariate analysis, findings indicated that rural women who were lower socioeconomically and had less education had a higher regard for pregnancy and a more positive attitude. Stepwise regression analysis revealed that PSINDEX, number of live births, number of years married, and a woman's educational attainment had significant effects on unwanted births. The maximum likelihood estimates indicated a good fitting model with an index of .997 and Chi square with 10 degrees of freedom of 6.80 (P.44). Among rural residents, the number of live births (path of .505) and pregnancy status (path of .109) had a direct effect on unwanted births. The higher the score on PSINDEX the lower the probability of having 1 or more unwanted births. In urban areas, education had a direct effect on unwanted births. Women who had been married longer, had less education, and fewer children were associated with pregnancy as an important factor in unwanted births. The rural model explained only 29% of the variance, while for the urban model 61%. Further exploration is recommended.     

Living and dying in the U.S.A.: Sociodemographic determinants of death among blacks and whites

This paper examines the demographic and social factors associated with differences in length of life by race. The results demonstrate that sociodemographic factors--age, sex, marital status, family size, and income--profoundly affect black and white mortality. Indeed, the racial gap in overall mortality could close completely with increased standards of living and improved lifestyles. Moreover, examining cause-specific mortality while adjusting for social factors shows that compared to whites, blacks have a lower mortality risk from respiratory diseases, accidents, and suicide; the same risk from circulatory diseases and cancer; and higher risks from infectious diseases, homicide, and diabetes. These results underscore the importance of examining social characteristics to understand more clearly the race differences in overall and cause-specific mortality.     

A decomposition of trends in the nonmarital fertility ratios of blacks and whites in the united states, 1960–1992*

We use a method of standardization and decomposition developed by Das Gupta to update Smith and Cutright’s analysis of demographic factors responsible for increases in the nonmarital fertility ratio (illegitimacy ratio) among blacks and whites in the United States. We create standardized rates for each year between 1960 and 1992, and consistent, exhaustive decompositions of the nonmarital fertility ratio for any interval during this period in terms of four components: (1) the age distribution of women of reproductive age, (2) the proportion of women unmarried at each age, (3) the age-specific birth rates of married women, and (4) the age-specific birth rates of unmarried women. Nonmarital fertility ratios are much higher among blacks than among whites, but both increased monotonically from 1960 to 1992. During the last 10 years, each increased by nearly 10 percentage points. Increases in the proportion of women not married, at all ages, account for the preponderance of the increase in black nonmarital fertility ratios. Increasing rates of unmarried childbearing, however, have played a role during the most recent decade (1983–1992). For whites, from 1960 until 1975, declines in marital fertility were most important in producing increases in the proportion of children born out of wedlock. Since then, these proportions have increased primarily because of increases in unmarried women s birth rates, and secondarily because of declines in the proportion of women who are married. These trends are consistent with arguments that emphasize declining economic incentives to marry and reduced access to, and acceptability of, abortion.     

Acomparison between Northern and Southern blacks residing in the North

Differences between Southern and non-Southern blacks living in the North and West are considered for a wide variety of attributes such as employment, occupation, income, marital stability, and offspring's performance in school. Migrant blacks have generally more favorable rates than their Northern- and Western-born compatriots after standard domographic controls are applied to an unusually detailed set of cross-tabulations based on the One-Percent Sample Tapes for 1960. Perhaps the sharpest gap exists with respect to marital conditions; Southern blacks of both sexes are more likely to marry and, among those ever married, live more frequently with their spouses. Some of the results reported by earlier investigators require considerable modification; For example, the fact that Northern black men are less often at work than migrants has led to speculations about regional differences in work orientation among blacks, but a detailed analysis of labor force activity indicates this pattern does not hold for women. Likewise, the migrant income advantage is found to vary by education such that it is confined to those with low educational attainment. The use of sample tapes permits a novel analysis of differences between Northern-born blacks classified by whether they are second or at least third generation residents of the North (children of Southern- or Northern-born parents, respectively). For the attribute measured, school performance, the gap is essentially nil. Finally, an alternative is suggested to the existing causal interpretations of North-South gaps among black residents of the North. Reconsidered in particular are the higher labor force rates of migrant men and their more frequent employment in blue collar jobs;     

The time response in averted births

Abstract A calculation of the timing of births that are averted may seem a curious exercise, when not only do the births in question not occur, but the corresponding conceptions may never have existed. However, such a calculation may have considerable use. In order to assess the likely direct impact of a contraceptive programme on birth rates it is useful to estimate the number of births that would, in the absence of the programme, have occurred among the couples who accept it. Moreover, some time would necessarily elapse before a new 'steady state' in fertility could be reached, even if the programme and the potentially fertile population did not change in any way; and it is worth while to seek to find the times (for a few years after the start of a programme) when the (averted) births would have occurred in its absence, and to examine any inherent oscillations produced in birth rates by it. This question is considered below only for groups of women aged 20 at marriage (a state which is taken to be the start of regular exposure to the risk of conception), but the same methods are applicable to other ages, (possibly allowing for mortality) and appropriate combinations of age groups and cohorts in the fertile range may be used to estimate changes in fertility and reproduction rates expected from a programme, subject to given conditions, for several years after its start. The methods can also be generalised, by means of convolution, to contraceptive programmes that change with time, but these are not considered further.     

The stable births resulting from a time dependent change between two net maternity functions

The asymptotic birth rate for a one-sex population in which the net maternity function changes to one of bare replacement was first discussed by Keyfitz and has since been studied by several authors. The present generalization allows for a time dependent transition from any net maternity function to another and, thus, includes all previous models.     

The relationship between apartment living and fertility for blacks,Mexican Americans,and other Americans in Racine,Wisconsin

Recently published data from a sample of Bogotá, Colombia public housing residents show that apartment dwellers, but not house dwellers, reduced their fertility in a tight housing market. We propose that the utilitycost theory of fertility accounts for this finding, and, using this theory, we predict that (a) apartment residents will not decrease their fertility in an open housing market and (b) higher fertility will be associated with larger dwellings. Longitudinal data from a sample of Midwest urban blacks, Mexican Americans, and other Americans support both predictions. The substantive implications are discussed.     

The effect of stepchildren on childbearing intentions and births

This article reports on a study of the effect of stepchildren (children from previous unions) on couples' fertility intentions and childbearing behavior using longitudinal data from the National Survey of Families and Households. The results indicated that stepchildren negatively affect childbearing intentions and childbearing risks. Intentions to have a child are weakened by one's own previous biological children and the previous biological children of one's current spouse or partner. This effect varies by the parenting configuration of the couple and gender of the respondent. Among couples with stepchildren, intentions remain high until each partner has had a biological child. Unlike women, men's previous biological children do not affect their intentions of having a child. Stepchildren exert a weak negative effect on couples' childbearing risks, and this effect is mediated by the couples' childbearing intentions. The findings suggest that stepchildren should be incorporated into future models of fertility.     

The gender longevity gap: explaining the difference between singles and couples

This paper studies the respective gender longevity gap in favour of women among singles, utilitarian and altruistic couples. The following hypotheses are derived: (1) the gender longevity gap is smaller within couples than among singles; (2) marriage increases longevity of men but decreases longevity of women; and (3) the gender longevity gap decreases with an increase in wealth. The hypotheses are tested using a complete data set of the Swiss deceased at the age 65+ in 2001 and 2002, with information on the individuals’ age at death and their average earnings over the life cycle.     

Couple childbearing plans and births in Sweden

We use data from a nationally representative sample of Swedish couples to estimate effects of partners’ childbearing plans on the rate of subsequent childbearing. Only 11% of the couples in this sample expressed plans in opposite directions (plan to have a child versus not to have a child), but 24% had differing levels of certainty about their plans. Of the couples in which both partners said they definitely planned to have another child, 44% had a child within two years. If neither partner planned to have another child, less than 2% of couples had a birth. The figure was 6% if the partners had opposing childbearing plans. Thus, both men and women exerted veto power over further childbearing. Disagreements were equally likely to be resolved in favor of the woman as of the man, and effects of partners’ plans on the birth hazard did not depend on the couple’s gender arrangements, family ideologies, or marital status. We discuss these results in the context of Sweden’s public support for gender equality and for childrearing, its pervasive contraceptive regime, and its high rates of cohabitation. We also argue for the collection of data from partners in future family and fertility surveys.     

The effects of school desegregation on mixed-race births

We find a strong positive raw correlation between black exposure to whites in their school district and the prevalence of later mixed-race (black-white) births, consistent with the literature on residential segregation and endogamy. However, that relationship is significantly attenuated by the addition of a few control variables, suggesting that individuals with higher propensities to have mixed-race births are more likely to live in desegregated school districts. We exploit quasi-random variation from court-ordered school desegregation to estimate causal effects of school desegregation on mixed-race childbearing, finding small to moderate effects that are largely statistically insignificant. Because the upward trend across cohorts in mixed-race childbearing was substantial, separating the effects of desegregation plans from secular cohort trends is difficult; results are sensitive to how we specify the cohort trends and to the inclusion of Chicago/Cook County in the sample. The fact that the addition of a few control variables substantially weakens the cross-sectional relationship between lower levels of school segregation and higher rates of mixed-race childbearing suggests that a substantial portion of the observed correlation is likely due to who chooses to live in places with desegregated schools. Researchers should be cautious about interpreting raw correlations between segregation—whether residential or school—and other outcomes as causal. Our results also point to the need to carefully explore specification of cohort effects in quasi-experimental designs for treatments where cumulative exposure is important.     

The value of avoided births to underdeveloped countries

Abstract An estimate of the value to a developing economy of preventing an additional birth is a useful yardstick for decisions about bonuses, information-and-dispensation campaigns, and propaganda campaigns. Enke's method of estimation incorrectly reckons private costs as public costs and attributes all the avoided consumption of the prevented child to the social account, whereas most of it would be otherwise consumed by the child's family. And at the discount rate Enke uses (15%) the effect of an added child on the marginal productivity of other workers is irrelevant. On the other hand, a 15% discount is shown to be inconsistent with other governmental decisions, and a lower discount rate reduces the value of a prevented birth in Enke's scheme. Hence Enke's method is internally inconsistent. Coale and Hoover's work on India enables one to generate an estimate for the value of an avoided birth on the basis of a complete and realistic macro-economic system. This was done by relating the differences in numbers of births in future periods (under two of the Coale-Hoover alternatives) to the differences in aggregate income that are projected (under the two alternatives). Even at the high discount rate of 15%, the value is $114. At lower discount rates the value is much higher.     

Unwanted pregnancies and unwanted fertility: Conceptual variations

The concepts of pregnancy unwantedness and unwanted fertility have a range of definitions, nor are reports consistent for concept use. This report examines various definitions and their application. Considering a measure of unwantedness as underinvestment in the child, a scale is described which examines the extent to which the unwanted child may be subjected to underinvestment. The hypothesis of an association between unwantedness and underinvestment was not supported. The conclusion is that unwantedness requires conceptual standardization and a behavioral definition for sociological use.     

The situation concerning marriage and births among childbearing women in Shaanxi province]

The results of a 1978 survey of 10 percent of the population of Shaanxi province, China, are presented. The survey contained questions on selected demographic characteristics of childbearing women. Data are included on marriage patterns, divorce, widowhood, fertility, and number of living children. Abbreviated life tables for both sexes for the province are also included.     

Family cap provisions and changes in births and abortions

As part of welfare reform efforts in the 1990s, 23 states implemented family caps, provisions that deny or reduce cash assistance to welfare recipients who have additional births. We use birth and abortion records from 24 states to estimate effects of family caps on birth and abortion rates. We use age, marital status, and completed schooling to identify women at high risk for use of public assistance, and parity (number of previous live births) to identify those most directly affected by the family cap. In family cap states, birth rates fell more and abortion rates rose more among high-risk women with at least one previous live birth compared to similar childless women, consistent with an effect of the family cap. However, this parity-specific pattern of births and abortions also occurred in states that implemented welfare reform with no family cap. Thus, the effects of welfare reform may have differed between mothers and childless women, but there is little evidence of an independent effect of the family cap.     

Family cap provisions and changes in births and abortions

As part of welfare reform efforts in the 1990s, 23 states implemented family caps, provisions that deny or reduce cash assistance to welfare recipients who have additional births. We use birth and abortion records from 24 states to estimate effects of family caps on birth and abortion rates. We use age, marital status, and completed schooling to identify women at high risk for use of public assistance, and parity (number of previous live births) to identify those most directly affected by the family cap. In family cap states, birth rates fell more and abortion rates rose more among high-risk women with at least one previous live birth compared to similar childless women, consistent with an effect of the family cap. However, this parity-specific pattern of births and abortions also occurred in states that implemented welfare reform with no family cap. Thus, the effects of welfare reform may have differed between mothers and childless women, but there is little evidence of an independent effect of the family cap.     

Regression analysis of the relationship between the birth rate and proportion of first order births in 1981]

Generally speaking, various fertility indicators such as the birth rate, average fertility rate, and total fertility rate have a close relationship. Various regression analyses have also been made by using different data on population statistics to describe their internal relationships. A regression analysis of the relationship between the birth rate and proportion of first order births, however, has not been made. Data collected by family planning staff at various places show that the places with a high rate of first order births normally have a lower birth rate, and the places with a low rate of first order births very often have a high birth rate. From here we may find that the proportion of the first order births is moving in two opposite directions, and there is no determined relationship between them. It is impossible to use one indicator to calculate the other's indicator. Only a regression analysis can be made to study the relationship between the two. The birth rate and proportion of first order births in 1981 showed some negative relationship, but the use of a regression equation should still be restricted. The regression equation between the birth rate and proportion of first order births may reflect a correct relationship when the region and the number of first order births are fixed. Therefore, any factor which has an impact on the number of first order births also has an influence on the use of regression equation.     

山东省东西部人口老龄化差异评析

山东省是人口大省,人口老龄化进程很快,2000年底,65岁及以上人口所占比重已达到8.12%。并且其人口老龄化还存在很大的地区差异,本文拟从人口老龄化程度、人口老龄化速度以及老龄人口学特征方面加以对比评析,继而探究这种地区差异形成的原因。