城市化与人力资本关系研究——基于我国261个地级以上城市非平衡面板数据

城市化与人力资本之间存在显著的影响关系,但衡量我国人力资本的不同变量,其影响效果和程度存在明显差异．而资源禀赋不同的地区影响也有所不同。采用2004—2010年我国261个地级以上城市非平衡面板数据,本文实证研究了城市化与人力资本水平之间的关系．并区分东、中、西部地区进行了进一步分析。结果表明．全国范围内．人力资本投资对城市化具有正向的推动作用．人口增长与人口密度已超过临界值,负外部性已经显现,第二产业仍是带动城市形成与扩张的主要产业：东部地区城市化对人才需求最大．城市类型并无显著影响．中部的高等教育投资和西部的中等教育投资分别与城市化存在显著的正向关系。     

Study on the Labor Resources Distribution and Optimizing Configuration

This thesis analyzes the change of labor resources distribution in the whole country and the effect of financial crisis on the labor force by use of employment population size,investment scale and the relevant data of GDP scale from different provinces in China.The optimal investment model of labor force is built according to the Marginal Product Elasticity Theory to estimate the quantity of surplus labor force in provinces and cities in China.It also analyzes the effect of investment on the labor force migration according to Capital-Labor Force Flow Model of Thomas B.The study shows that there is no shortage of labor resources in our country;the labor resources distribution in eastern regions is close to the optimization;the largescale surplus labor force still exist in central and western regions;western regions will become the regions with the largest number of surplus labor resources instead of central regions.     

少数民族人口分布及其变动分析

本文基于2005年全国1％抽样调查数据,并结合历次人口普查资料,综合分析了我国少数民族人口分布及其变动趋势。一方面,我国少数民族人口分布的基本特点是在长期的历史过程中形成的,各民族人口的分布格局有着非凡的稳定性,即少数民族主要分布于西部内陆地区、居住相对集中、大多生活在农村。另一方面,随着经济社会的巨大发展,民族政策的变化,交通工具的日益发达,民族人口的再分布渐趋活跃。少数民族人口分布呈现向东部沿海地区扩散的态势,人口分布趋于分散,城市化进程加速。     

西南边疆民族地区流动人口的族群关系研究—以迪庆藏族自治州建塘镇为例

我国流动人口在出现由少数民族聚居区的西部落后地区向东部沿海发达地区大规模迁移流动的同时．也有局部的逆向流动。这种逆向流动的规模尽管不如前者显著．但却涉及到更复杂的民族关系．而各民族的居住格局又是影响民族关系的一个重要因素。文章以西部云南省迪庆州为例分析发现．总体上流动人口中汉族与其他少数民族整体居住分离程度还是比较低,反映了民族之间的居住融合比较理想,但分民族来看．汉族与藏族、回族的居住分离程度较高．远远大于白族、纳西族和傈僳族。有效地进行居住迁移调整不仅可以减少各民族流动人口内部的矛盾．而且也能促进各民族流动人口之间、各民族流动人口与原住居民之间的融合,从而推动民族地区社会与经济的和谐发展。     

We must pay attention to the difference between the original intention and the current status of family planning]

Due to imperfections in the current family planning (FP) policy, and the differences un program implementation in urban and rural areas, the fertility of the urban population with higher IQ scores is under control but this is not the case for the rural population. Among rural couples, one child is rare and two or three are commonplace, while in cities over 70% of couples are having one child. In the metropolitan cities, this figure is about 90%. In the rural areas, provision of education is a serious problem because of insufficient resources, a lack of qualified teachers and inadequate facilities. At the present, at least 3 million school age children in rural areas can not go to primary school. Besides there is a big contrast in FP practice between Han nationality and minorities. Population growth is basically under control among the more advanced Han nationally but not among the less advances minority nationalities. This growth rate among the minority population was about 50.27/1000 in the past five years, which is alarming. Furthermore, the couples given opportunity to have a second child are often those whose first child had birth defects or is mentally retarded, whereas couples with a normal child can have only one child. This has become a vicious circle, since subsequent children are more likely to have the same birth defects. It was discovered from a 1983-85 survey that the prevalence of birth defects was 12.8/1000. The current situation is that the fertility of urban, educated, and healthy people is restricted while the less educated, those living in less developed areas, and those with health defects are having more children. The outcome of this situation is the decline of national population quality, which greatly deviates from the original intention of the FP.     

“Population Invasion” versus Urban Exclusion in the Tibetan Areas of Western China

This article examines the confluence of local population transitions (demographic transition and urbanization) with non‐local in‐migration in the Tibetan areas of western China. The objective is to assess the validity of Tibetan perceptions of “population invasion” by Han Chinese and Chinese Muslims. The article argues that migration to Tibet from other regions in China has been concentrated in urban areas and has been counterbalanced by more rapid rates of natural increase in the Tibetan rural areas—among the highest rates in China. Overall, it is not clear whether there is any risk of population invasion in the Tibetan areas. However, given that non‐Tibetan migration to Tibet has been concentrated in urban areas, Tibetans have probably become a minority in many of their strategic cities and towns, and non‐Tibetan migrants definitely dominate urban employment. Therefore, while the Tibetan notion of population invasion may be a misperception, it reflects a legitimate concern that in‐migration may be exacerbating the economic exclusion of Tibetan locals in the context of rapid urban‐centered development.     

论中国城市规模分布的区域差异

本文分析了建国以后中国三大地区的城市增长状况 ,三大地区的城市规模分布特征及其成因 ,探讨了中国中、西部地区城市规模结构的缺陷可能给对外开放和西部大开发带来的负面影响 ,同时指出了“控制大城市规模”的城市发展方针与对外开放政策、社会主义市场经济体制的建立以及西部大开发战略等的矛盾。本文认为 :大城市是地区经济发展的“增长极” ,中、西部地区缺少具有较大影响范围的大城市和特大城市 ,使得这些地区在市场经济条件下和改革开放过程中的创新机会和领先条件大为减少 ,而且会影响到西部大开发战略的顺利实施     

Quality of life declines in big and growing cities. Poverty in cities

The quality of life in developing countries during the first couple of decades after the Second World War was higher in cities than in small towns and villages. However, the relative advantage of city dwellers in developing countries has declined since the 1970s, with high-growth rate cities experiencing a more severe decline. Infant mortality levels in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa in the 1990s are as high in large cities as in the smallest towns and villages. In most developing regions, big city residents are increasingly disadvantaged, such that researchers and policymakers can no longer assume that the quality of life in urban areas is better than in rural areas. The urban transformation of the developing world is similar to the 19th century urbanization of now-developed countries, but today many more people are crowding into far bigger cities. Using survey information from 43 countries representing 63% of the developing world's urban population outside of China and India, Martin Brockerhoff of the Population Council and Ellen Brennan of the UN Population Division found that rapid population growth and big size have overwhelmed the capacity of cities to provide essential goods and services.     

Migration - a mixed blessing

Regarding migration, the current thinking is that certain aspects of migration have important implications for population planning. Focus here is on the role of migration and its influence on integrated development programs. Although individuals who migrate to cities are generally from the more privileged socioeconomic groups within the rural area, it is not accurate to identify them as the "cream of the rural population." Present population policies do consider the fact that 70 to 80% of the people live in rural areas, yet population policies give only lip service to migration policies. In response to a question as to whether urbanization is conducive to pro- to anti-natal tendencies in migrating families the responses varied. 1 opinion was that there is no evidence that urbanization and the natality behavior of migrating families is significantly related, while other opinions identified a relationship between anti-natal behavior and migration. Rural development and rural growth centers do seem to help alleviate population problems of rural and urban areas, but their success is very dependent on the kind of rural development programs and the extent of services provided through the growth center. The following are among the advantages to "planned migration" that can be used to strengthen population policies: 1) effective utilization of manpower; 2) balanced regional development; 3) further exploitation of natural resources; and 4) reducing the various problems in urban regions. Many do believe that international migration is a feasible solution to population problems in the global context.     

1990年以来中国各民族人口教育发展研究——来自人口普查和人口抽样调查数据的分析

运用人口普查和人口抽样调查数据,研究1990年以来各民族人口教育发展状况,考察7～16岁儿童在校率的影响因素。在实证分析的基础上,针对如何促进少数民族人口的教育发展提出政策建议。研究发现,在过去几十年中,少数民族与汉族人口的教育都取得了长足发展。少数民族人口中,未受过初中教育的人口比例高于汉族。不论对少数民族还是汉族,与城镇地区相比,乡村地区初中教育的缺失更加严重。在城镇地区,少数民族与汉族7～16岁儿童在校率相差很少,但在乡村地区仍然存在一些差距。在考虑了地区影响因素后,少数民族与汉族儿童的在校概率差异或者缩小,或者消失,只有满族除外。     

Birth and death in cities in the developing world

City dwellers in Sub-Saharan Africa have increased roughly 600% in the last 35 years. Throughout the developing world, cities have expanded at a rate that has far outpaced rural population growth. Extensive data document lower fertility and mortality rates in cities than in rural regions. But slums, shantytowns, and squatters' settlements proliferate in many large cities. Martin Brockerhoff studies the reproductive and health consequences of urban growth, with an emphasis on maternal and child health. Brockerhoff reports that child mortality rates in large cities are highest among children born to mothers who recently migrated from rural areas or who live in low-quality housing. Children born in large cities have about a 30% higher risk of dying before they reach the age of 5 than those born in smaller cities. Despite this, children born to migrant mothers who have lived in a city for about a year have much better survival chances than children born in rural areas to nonmigrant mothers and children born to migrant mothers before or shortly after migration. Migration in developing countries as a whole has saved millions of children's lives. The apparent benefits experienced in the 1980s may not occur in the future, as cities continue to grow and municipal governments confront an overwhelming need for housing, jobs, and services. Another benefit is that fertility rates in African cities fell by about 1 birth per woman as a result of female migration from villages to towns in the 1980s and early 1990s. There will be an increasing need for donors and governments to concentrate family planning, reproductive health, child survival, and social services in cities, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, because there child mortality decline has been unexpectedly slow, overall fertility decline is not yet apparent in most countries, and levels of migration to cities are anticipated to remain high.     

中国老年人经济生活来源变化:2005～2010

2005～2010年,我国老年人的主要经济生活来源结构没有发生大的变化,但各类生活来源的比重发生较大变化。老年人的经济生活来源存在明显的性别、年龄、婚姻、城乡、地区差异。在过去5年,我国老年人的独立性增强,一些弱势群体越来越多地得到国家、政府的保障。但是,女性老年人群体、高龄老人群体、丧偶老人群体,尤其未婚的老人,更需要社会关注;老年人主要经济生活来源的城乡差异和镇乡差异、东部和西部地区以及中部和西部地区的差异在扩大。     

农民养老风险、策略与期望的地区差异分析

了解农民养老风险、策略与期望的地区差异,有助于提高农村社会政策的合理性和针对性。利用全国10个省市35个行政村的千户农民调查数据分析发现,东、中、西部地区农民面临的养老风险、应对策略以及对养老的期望皆表现出显著的不同。不同地区在制定解决农民养老问题的社会政策时,应该充分考虑所在地区农民养老面临的主要风险、应对策略以及对养老的期望,使有限的农村社会保障资源为农民带来最大的社会福利效应。     

Speech at the UN International Conference on Population,Mexico City,August, 1984

In seeking a solution to its population problem, China, as a developing socialist country, has been making unremitting efforts to develop economy while controlling the rapid growth. The objective is to control rapid population growth so that population growth may be in keeping with socioeconomic development and commensurate with utilization of natural resources and environmental protection. In the past decade, and particularly since 1979, China has made much progress in developing economy and gained remarkable successes in controlling population growth. The natural population growth rate dropped to 1.15% in 1983, from 2.089% in 1973. Living standards have improved with a gradual annual increase of per capita income. All this proves that the policy of promoting family planning to control population growth along with planned economic development is correct. In China family planning is a basic state policy. The government has advocated the practice of "1 couple, 1 child" since 1979. This does not mean that 1 couple could have 1 child only in every case. The government provides guidance for the implementation of family planning programs in the light of specific conditions such as economic developments, cultural background, population structure, and the wishes of the people in different localities. The requirements are more flexible in rural than in urban areas and more so among the people of national minorities than among the people of the Han Nationality. In rural areas, couples who have actual difficulties and want to have 2 children may have a 2nd birth with planned spacing. In carrying out its family planning program, China has consistently adhered to the principle of integrating state guidance with the masses' voluntariness. The government has always emphasized the importance of encouraging the people's own initiatives, through publicity and education, which is the key link in implementing the family planning program.     

医疗保险对农村居民家庭消费的影响分析--基于不同收入层级的跨地区比较

利用2009、2010农村固定观察点数据,分析了医疗保险对不同地区、不同收入层级的农村居民家庭医疗消费支出和非医疗消费支出的影响。实证结果表明：医疗保险对农村居民家庭的医疗类消费不存在显著影响,对非医疗类消费支出则存在显著的正向促进作用。分地区来看,医疗保险对东西部地区农村居民家庭医疗类消费的影响差异显著,对东中部地区农村居民家庭非医疗类消费支出的影响同样差异显著;分收入层级来看,医疗保险对家庭医疗类消费的影响在不同收入层级的农村居民家庭之间不存在显著差异,但对非医疗类消费支出的影响在不同收入层级之间差异显著。此外,商业医疗保险作为医疗保险体系的重要组成部分,对促进农村消费起到带动作用。最后,本文从加大政府补贴和完善保障机制两个方面提出政策建议以期有效降低农村居民家庭超常的预防性储蓄,促进农村居民家庭消费。     

Transitional stages and identity boundaries: the case of ethnic minorities in China

At the advent of the Republic in China in 1911, the minority issue took on its real dimension. Its founder Sun Yat Sen, aware of the fragility of the new Nation-State, and turning a deaf ear to the statistical evidence, tried to minimize the influence of the minorities and to enhance, in his writings and speeches, the demographic supremacy of the Hans. On the contrary, the communist regime since the very start (1949) made a full-fledge recognition (including religion as a criterionr of ethnic minorities. There are now 55 minority groups, amounting to 120 million inhabitants, almost 10% of the population. This article explores the relationship between fertility trends since 1970, as depicted in the single age and sex structures in the 1990 census, and socio-economic, cultural and religious factors. Most sinicized minorities (Manchu, Mongols, Koreans …) have more or less followed the same pace of fertility transition as the Hans, under the yoke of the tough restrictive population policy. On the other hand, fertility trends among the less sinicized groups (Tibetans, Uigurs, Kazakhs and Kirgiz), have been largely at odds with the mainstream Han group. Their fertility remained high at the very moments when it was sharply reduced among Hans and decreased when Han fertility was remaining almost stable. This reflcts the fact that the Chinese authorities have conceded substantial privileges to their minorities, especially in the frontiers by relaxing the family planning policy. Religion as such does not emerge as a key explanatory variable explaining fertility differences. Hence, fertility among Moslem minorities has diverged to a great extent among the more integrated Hui minority, on the one hand, and the Turkic ones (Uigurs, Kazakhs and Kirgiz), on the other. Whereas the patterns of the Hui fertility were always in line with those of the Hans, the Xinjiang populations have displayed a higher than expected fertility, which might be a demographic response to the ambitions of the central government, whose aim was to strenghten its buffer-zone in the Turkic regions by drowning them under the masses of Han immigrants. The proportion of ethnic Chinese in Xinjiang has thus increased from a mere 7% in 1953 to some 40% today. However, this proportion is unstable and likely to decrease in the near future under the impact of the higher natural growth of the Turkic populations.     

东西部人才差距分析与西部人才培养对策

缩小东西部经济差距,实现中国经济协调发展,首先要大力开发西部人才资源,缩小东西部人才资源差距。本文分析了东西部在人口素质和中、高等教育方面的差距,这种差距反映了西部初等教育与中、高等教育在规模数量上存在的比例失调问题,由此提出了发展西部中、高等教育,提高人口素质、开发人才资源的有效措施。     

春运问题的人口社会学分析

春运是近十多年来在中国形成的一大独特的社会现象,因在短期内集中引发诸多问题而成为人们日益关注的社会问题。春运既是当代中国社会结构变迁的产物,又蕴涵着丰富的传统文化意味,春运问题实质上是现代与传统冲突的结果。社会结构空间上的人口流动、社会发展的不均衡以及制度性约束是春运问题产生的根源,因而要从根本上解决春运问题,必须加快城乡、区域的均衡发展,同步推进城市化与农村建设,促进社会结构的日趋合理与稳定。     

中国离婚人口性别比：时期变化与空间差异

我国离婚率除存在时期差异还存在城乡差异。1990-2000年间15岁以上人口离婚率增幅显著,男性离婚率先降后升,变化幅度不大,女性自1990年起呈剧烈增长,20年增长了3倍。全国15岁以上离婚人口的性别比自1982年来出现陡降,由378降至127。2010年离婚人口性别比由城市到乡村依次升高,性别空间不均衡矛盾突出。离婚人口的年龄分布具有显著的错峰效应。乡村离婚高峰到来最早,城镇次之,再次是城市,越往后峰形越陡峻。     

西部开发中的人口迁移对策研究

人口迁移有利于西部地区获得急需的人力资源、促成产业的转换与就业的增加和观念的更新。但由于东西部的地区间收入和生活舒适程度都存在巨大的差别 ,在吸引劳动力、特别是在吸引高科技人才方面 ,西部处于不利的地位。提高西部所需行业的收入会在一定程度上补偿不利环境的影响。改变那些与生活条件有关的因素 ,如交通基础设施的建设、生态环境的保护和开发 ,以及管理体制的改变都是西部吸引人力资源的途径